This question was asked at least four times: no, since they have to swear an oath of loyalty to the British Commonwealth they refuse to take their seats because they don’t recognise the British State and its occupation of Northern Ireland.
"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
That South West flag is hideous! I can see the Tories changing that as soon as they take the SW Premiership.
The North East England flag made me chuckle.
Two New Lab SpADs sit in Westminster:
"We need a flag that symbolises the North East of England, what shall we do?"
"I don't know...shift the English flag South East a bit?"
"Brilliant! I'll let Newcastle know"
The North East England flag made me chuckle.
Two New Lab SpADs sit in Westminster:
"We need a flag that symbolises the North East of England, what shall we do?"
"I don't know...shift the English flag South East a bit?"
"Brilliant! I'll let Newcastle know"
Presidential Debate, Part 4, The Economy and Public Spending
Farage warned of the impact further envrionmental regulation would have on the economy
The final section of the debate was on the economy, Nigel Farage was called to speak first.
“If there is a "green jobs revolution" as President Miliband calls it, you will lose your job in manufacturing. Look, our regions are being left behind, many parts of the Commonwealth feel as though they've been ignored decades, taken for granted. The argument for better infrastructure, the argument for access to broadband is overwhelming. The question is how do we pay for it? Well, President Miliband is going to borrow vast amounts of money, Senator May is going to borrow some. I suggest cutting things like HS2 which costs 100 billion to benefit a few thousand, you could help millions with 100 billion pounds. We need to get control of our spending, but none of this matters if we can't get out of the crooked EU, who we send hundreds of millions of pounds every single week, let's get that money back and spend it on British people.”
With May and Batten moving in a statist interventionist direction, Farage was the only candidate on stage still making a Libertarian, pro-cuts pitch. Unfortunately for Farage after several years out of austerity, the British public was hesitant to go back, especially his own backers in the North and Midlands.
Theresa May stepped in next.
May warned Britian was dangerously close to financial ruin
“Preisdent Miliband has left this country on the brink of bankruptcy, millions are out of work. I will take difficult decisions to make sure the economy is stronger. I will bring the change the British people want to, investment in our public services like the NHS. I will make sure this is the best place to raise a family and to start a business. I will keep the cost of living, and cut your taxes. The alternative to all this is Miliband's reckless spending plans. We know who will pay for those, it's very clear, ordinary working families up and down the country will be hit with even more taxes due to Miliband's spending plans. That's a risk we must avoid. Do not risk another five years of Miliband pulling us closer and closer to bankruptcy, vote May/Lidington.”
May continued to be laser-focused on Miliband, ignoring the distraction Farage possessed. She combined traditional Conservative warnings of economic ruin with improved spending in areas like the NHS, and it seemed to play well with the audience.
Vince Cable interjected.
Cable leant on his experience as the Commonwealth's longest serving Chancellor
“Look I've been a former Chancellor in both Conservative and Labour Governments, so if anyone knows where the money's coming from it's me. I've been very clear about where the money's going to come from. I'm saying corporation tax will go up a bit and there'll be some changes to capital gains tax. I'm also staying by not having a costly EU referendum. We'll save millions of pounds, and the economy will do better as there'll be less uncertainty. In Government we Liberal Democrats put more money for schools and benefits to help the most vulnerable. I'm also saying there isn't any easy shortcut to this, we all have to pay more if we want better services, so I'll put 2p on income tax for the NHS. For those who are promising a wishlist of policies without saying that we'll all have to pay a bit more for it, they're just not being credible.”
The economy should’ve been where Cable shone, but he struggled to differentiate himself from the pack, his railing against the non-credible spending of Ed Miliband appeared hypocritical when he had served in Miliband’s Government.
Gerrard Batten interrupted.
Batten's platform mixed nationalism with economic populism
“The construction industry has bottomed out, youth unemployment is up at around 10% which is totally unacceptable. The real issue with our economy is the national debt, that's really important, in the last hour, the national debt has grown by £20 million. Our national debt has reached the trillions, every politician up here has put a noose around the neck of the next generation, they have betrayed our children and our grandchildren. But none of the policies Secretary Cable or Senator May are talking about matter, whilst we send billions abroad in foreign aid and EU tributes, it's time to make Britain great again and spend British money on British people.”
Batten continued in his comfort zone, with hyperbolic language accusing his fellow candidates of betraying the next generation, while crass, it generated headlines and kept him in the public spotlight.
Heidi Allen was next to speak.
“Both Labour and the Conservatives are anti-business, they both want reckless spending. They both want to drive this country off an economic cliff. Senator May wants to spend millions and plunge businesses into chaos by approving an EU referendum, President Miliband wants to hike their taxes. I am a businesswoman, not a politician, I know what needs to be done. We are an economically credible party. The Conservatives have proved they are anything but. Our country lacks both leadership and opposition at a time when it desperately needs both. By embracing a vision of a better future, we can build an economy fit for the future."
Like Cable, the economy was the section Allen was waiting for, but she struggled to make a clear impression and differentiate herself from the pack, making a fairly generic anti-spending pitch.
Allen pitched herself as the candidate of small businesses
Bartley chose this point to step in.
“Only the Greens are putting forward the investment plans that are needed to transform our economy. If you look at what Secretary Cable is putting forward there's barely any investment in their plans. Even President Miliband is promising a third of what's needed. My economic plan is an alternative to bailing out the banks, an alternative to austerity. My policies pay for themselves, they will benefit every corner of the country, and they reduce climate emissions. By giving me your vote, you can make sure whoever ends up in Buckingham will listen to the Green Party and implement these good ideas.”
Bartley knew he wasn't going to win, but told voters to send a message by naming him as their first preference
Bartley struggled with Miliband parking his tanks on the Green Party’s lawn. His spending plans were fairly vague and as a junior coalition member, he was held responsible for the Miliband Government so he couldn’t be too aggressive.
Miliband spoke last to close the section.
“My platform, unlike Senator May's manifesto, is fully costed, it's there online for everyone to see. We are one of the richest countries in the world, we deserve better and our people deserve better than low paid insecure employment. My Green Jobs Revolution will not only tackle climate change, but it will create half a million new jobs to replace some of those jobs. We can do so much better as a country in terms of the economy and quality of jobs. Under my Presidency, wages have gone up, living standards have gone up, unemployment is down, don't let Senator May ruin it.”
Miliband was in his element talking about his greens jobs plan and gave an energetic and hopefully speech, pointing to the increase in living standards under his Presidency and his passion for green industry.
Miliband and May both ignored the minor candidates and focused on each other
"To what extent was Miliband's Green Jobs Revolution a credible policy? (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam"
2019 Presidential Debate, Part 5, Closing Statements and Aftermath
Allen's closing speech was nothing to write home about
Heidi Allen was called first to give her closing statement
“I didn't leave my business to lower my professional standards and accept second best. I demand more for my country, more competence, more collaboration and more expert analysis. It needs to push, and shove, and drive - not cower from its own shadow. It should attract the best minds, the biggest hearts and the most effective communicators. I am prepared to dare to dream that this could be possible. But it's not going to happen if Presidents sit idly by nodding through policy and voting like sheep. The main parties have not been able to grasp the size of the challenge and have no plan to respond, nor heal the divisions across our country. So we need to start again with a clean sheet. And as a true centre-ground President sharing the same values as millions of our citizens. I have a responsibility to act. So yes I am putting my head above the parapet and I might fail. But isn't the prize worth fighting for? And I sense the country wants me to fight for it too. And am prepared to give it everything I've got."
Sitting at the middle of the political spectrum, Allen also ended up in the middle of the pack, whilst her debate performance was by no means bad, it was nothing special, the centrist insurgent drowned out by a set of more colourful characters.
Gerrard Batten was called next.
“In this debate, I have referred to a UKIP government. For many, this may appear a lofty ambition. But, it is only by presenting practical solutions to real challenges, that we will achieve the influence to make them happen. And that is what I have done today. I am the only candidate that is 100% supportive of our Armed and emergency services. The only candidate that is pledging to reverse the cuts to our military and police – the only candidate pledging to look after our veterans. I am the only candidate that is 100% committed to preventing the subordination of our Defence Policy to the EU in any way. I today pledge to save our services and to protect our protectors, through Brexit and beyond.”
Batten's debate focused on a pro-military and police pitch
Expectations were low for Batten, simply by not imploding or saying something overtly racist Batten was able to exceed these expectations, his populist, pro-military and pro-police message certainly resonated with a certain part of the country, the remaining UKIP staffers breathed a sigh of relief.
Vince Cable was the next to speak.
Cable tried to pitch himself as the only alternative to May, but this pitch fell flat when it was pointed out he was polling fourth
“So what will Theresa May do if she wins this election? She'll ram through her EU referendum, starting years and years of uncertainty. She won't be there when the redundancy notices are handed out, or when you pay more at supermarket shops. Strong and stable leadership is her latest lie. Or what about President Miliband? Beholden to Diane Abbott and the hard-left Socialist Caucus, he cannot provide credible leadership, he cannot stop Theresa May. But there is still time to stop her, the Liberal Democrats are the only party that can stop Theresa May. Every vote for me is a vote to stop a damaging EU referendum. A vote to build a better future - to save our planet, protect our NHS and ensure you and your family can thrive.”
For Cable, the debate had been a disaster, by far the oldest candidate on the stage he had struggled to articulate his points and came under attack for his association with both the Miliband and Osborne Governments, looking slimy and untrustworthy.
Then it was Jonathan Bartley’s turn to speak.
“It's easy to fear the future. The shadow of runaway climate chaos hangs over us and all around there is inequality. But despite all this, Progressives don't fear the future, we are the future. You can trust me to keep my promises and to hold the other parties to account. As your President, I will support a referendum but campaign to remain. I will let no Government get away with climate chaos, we can't afford it. This election could be the last chance we have to transform Britain, it's time to change course, so vote Bartley/MacKay. We need a President who will take action, if not now, when?”
Bartley's ecological message struggled against such an environmentalist incumbent
Like Allen, Bartley had a fairly dull debate, as a Cabinet Minister of several years he couldn’t harness the outsider zeel historical Green candidates used. Whilst he had no major gaffes he found himself overshadowed by the larger candidates and failed to break through to the public.
Theresa May stepped up next to speak.
“Ask yourself this: do you want an EU referendum sorted in weeks or more ignoring the question and division? Focus on the NHS, schools and police or more arguing in the Senate? To move on, or stay gridlocked? This is the choice you have. My team, delivering an EU referendum by the end of the year and focusing on your priorities, or Ed Miliband stuck in neutral with a seven-way coalition and still no Parliamentary majority. Only I can break this deadlock and set Britain free. It's time to put someone new in the driving seat, it's time for strong and stable leadership that will get Britain moving.”
May was not an accomplished debater, she had famously performed badly in the Senate debate with Douglas Alexander in 2015, and in the primary debate with Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid, so expectations were low. But May had learnt from these failures and had spent weeks practising, it seemed to pay off. She was laser-focused on the gridlock and division in the coalition, hammering home, again and again, her message of gridlock and stability.
The Senate chaos of recent week had helped May's struggling campaign to recover
Now it was Miliband’s turn.
“I want to thank you for watching tonight. A vote for me is a vote for hope, a politics of optimism, not a politics of fear and division. My party created the NHS, introduced a minimum wage. In-office I ended NHS privatisation, introduced a living wage of £9 an hour, ended the scandalous crisis in social care, bringing care to an extra million older people. A Miliband Government that supported you and invested in your community. I am on your side, let's keep our country working for everyone, vote Miliband/Harman on the 2nd of May.”
Left-wing Twitter was very amused by Milibands "sass" during the debate
Miliband also had a strong night, confident and proud in his record he was able to hold his own against May, and bat away criticism from the minor candidates. Throughout the debate, Miliband remained cool, collected and Presidential.
Farage was called to finish the debate.
“Well, I hope you've enjoyed tonight's talent show. It's been a competition to see who can be the most politically correct, so thus I must have failed here, but not with you back at home. I want us to become an independent country, to leave the European Union. There's a bigger, more exciting world out there, with our friends in the Commonwealth and America there's so much we can do. But we have to get a referendum done, and then reform our political institutions. What I've seen tonight is that there's no desire to change anything, so we need to get some fresh, strong, non-PC voices into Buckingham and the Senate. Let's fight not just for Brexit, but lets try and change for politics for good.”
Whilst May had outperformed expectations, Farage had underperformed, with a surprisingly strong Batten to his right and a rejuvenated May to his left, the debate was not the cakewalk he had hoped for, Farage lacked his usual good humour seeming on edge and snappy, struggling to connect with the voters at home.
Farage quietly left the debate via the rear exit
As the politicians shook hands and departed the stage, the snap pollsters tallied up the scores, YouGov was the first out the gate, declaring Theresa May the narrow winner with 24% of respondents saying May had the best night, followed by Miliband on 22%, Batten on 18%, Allen on 16%, Bartley on 8% and Farage and Cable tied with just 6%. The three or four-horse race was quickly narrowing into a two-horse duel.
““The Presidential debate was the most influential event of the 2019 elections”, how far do you agree (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
Closer Look, 2017 North East Parliamentary Election
The North East was famously one of the Commonwealth's most stable region, it had the same Labour/Liberal coalition for over a decade (since 2005) and the Commonwealth's most popular Premier Nick Brown had run the region since 2009. After First Minister Catherine McKinnell was named federal Attorney General in Miliband's 2015 reshuffle, Health Minister Sharon Hodgson was elected Leader of North East Labour and First Minister. Hodgson ran on a platform of improving transport infrastructure in the North East and extending HS2 to Newcastle, she netted the party an additional two seats and the Lab/Lib coalition was returned for a fifth term.
The Conservatives were led by Anne-Marie Trevelyan, an arch-Eurosceptic from the right of the party, Trevelyan hoped to benefit from the collapse of UKIP and campaigned against the high-speed rail expansion, arguing that the money should instead be spent on expanding and improving the A1 road. High-speed rail was a divisive issue and with UKIP's support imploding Trevelyan nearly doubled her caucus to 14.
The Liberal Democrats were led by veteran politician Fiona Hall, who had served as Leader of the Opposition from 1999 to 2005 and Deputy First Minister since 2005. Hall campaigned on improving Green energy and against Trevelyan's Euroscepticism, arguing it would put North East jobs at risk, Hall's internationalist message didn't play well in the Eurosceptic North East and she held steady.
As for the minor parties, UKIP collapsed from forming the official opposition to polling fourth. It's Faragite Leader, John Tennant, had formed a competent opposition leader, but the caucus was dragged down by internal splits and drama in UKIP's central office. The Greens made little impact, holding onto their only two legislators. The North East Party saw a boost in late 2014 as Labour legislator Hilton Dawson defected to the party, giving it regional representation for the first time ever, the NEP used this base to break the 4% threshold and secure a second legislator.
"UKIP has pledged to oppose controversial plans to build hundreds of homes near a North-East airport. John Tennant, UKIP’s First Minister candidate, says Durham Tees Valley Airport is in danger of becoming an “embarrassment”. Last month, the North East Government announced the building of 400 homes on the northern border of the airport. The development site includes retail and office space, a cafe, restaurant, pub, gym, car showroom, and parking. Mr Tennant, Leader of the Opposition in the North East Parliament said: “Building homes on a green belt destroys the local economy. If the airport expands, these homes will have to be pulled down. “We have got to help Durham Tees Valley Airport, but buying it is not a long term solution. Yes, we need the 400 homes, but not on that site.” Mr Tennant was speaking at The Grand Hotel in Hartlepool as he launched UKIP's manifesto for the North East election. He once again reaffirmed his pledge to hold a referendum on abolishing the North East Parliament as soon as he is elected." - UKIP's John Tennant pledges to oppose the build of 400 homes near Durham Tees Valley Airport, Nick Gullon, Northern Echo (2017)
The Conservatives were led by Anne-Marie Trevelyan, an arch-Eurosceptic from the right of the party, Trevelyan hoped to benefit from the collapse of UKIP and campaigned against the high-speed rail expansion, arguing that the money should instead be spent on expanding and improving the A1 road. High-speed rail was a divisive issue and with UKIP's support imploding Trevelyan nearly doubled her caucus to 14.
The Liberal Democrats were led by veteran politician Fiona Hall, who had served as Leader of the Opposition from 1999 to 2005 and Deputy First Minister since 2005. Hall campaigned on improving Green energy and against Trevelyan's Euroscepticism, arguing it would put North East jobs at risk, Hall's internationalist message didn't play well in the Eurosceptic North East and she held steady.
As for the minor parties, UKIP collapsed from forming the official opposition to polling fourth. It's Faragite Leader, John Tennant, had formed a competent opposition leader, but the caucus was dragged down by internal splits and drama in UKIP's central office. The Greens made little impact, holding onto their only two legislators. The North East Party saw a boost in late 2014 as Labour legislator Hilton Dawson defected to the party, giving it regional representation for the first time ever, the NEP used this base to break the 4% threshold and secure a second legislator.
"UKIP has pledged to oppose controversial plans to build hundreds of homes near a North-East airport. John Tennant, UKIP’s First Minister candidate, says Durham Tees Valley Airport is in danger of becoming an “embarrassment”. Last month, the North East Government announced the building of 400 homes on the northern border of the airport. The development site includes retail and office space, a cafe, restaurant, pub, gym, car showroom, and parking. Mr Tennant, Leader of the Opposition in the North East Parliament said: “Building homes on a green belt destroys the local economy. If the airport expands, these homes will have to be pulled down. “We have got to help Durham Tees Valley Airport, but buying it is not a long term solution. Yes, we need the 400 homes, but not on that site.” Mr Tennant was speaking at The Grand Hotel in Hartlepool as he launched UKIP's manifesto for the North East election. He once again reaffirmed his pledge to hold a referendum on abolishing the North East Parliament as soon as he is elected." - UKIP's John Tennant pledges to oppose the build of 400 homes near Durham Tees Valley Airport, Nick Gullon, Northern Echo (2017)
For a second I mixed the North East results and thought that the UKIP had won there... then I saw it right and enjoyed their defeat even more...
I was wondering, do you have a clear "direction" you're working towards with all the events and votes worked out or is the story/TL evolving as you write it?
I had originally intended this just to be a wikibox thread, rather than a full TL. So I originally I just had the wikiboxes for the national Parliamentary, Senate and Presidental elections but nothing else, so I knew Ed Miliband would win in 2014 but no idea how or why. So I have the "skeleton" of the various elections and their outcomes, but how we get there is mostly made up along the way and retroactively justified.
As I've been writing I've been planning ahead more and more, the late 90s and early 2000s were literally written the day they were published, but as we've gone on I've done more planning and now my planning Google Doc has a stupid amount of detail in it, from the Mayor of Oxford to the South West's Health Minister.
Well this is only a presidential election so but I’d imagine the legislative bodies will fall to a Blue Wave
The Senate is also up for grabs too, but yes the Parliament won't be up until 2020. This year's elections are for President, National Senate, Premiers, Regional Senates and Mayors.
Latest Senate YouGov poll is:
- Labour - 25%
- Conservatives - 25%
- Brexit Alliance - 13%
- Liberal Democrats - 11%
- Green Parties - 7%
- UK Independence Party - 7%
- United for Change - 6%
- Others - 6%
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2019 Presidential Election, Part 2
May hoped to show her more human side by having her husband Philip with her throughout the campaign
“The Conservatives are experiencing a “bounce” in the polls since the election debate, May is now neck and neck with Miliband, both with 29% of the vote. New polling by Opinium for The Observer shows - a gain of five points in the past three weeks. The polling shows May benefitting from a surge in support away from Farage. Miliband is also up four points to 29% at the expense of the Green Party. While support for Labour has grown, Miliband is seen as a weaker leader to May. 34% of those polled believed May was a "stronger" leader compared to 21% for Miliband – a 13 point lead. The only advantage that Miliband holds is that he is perceived to be “more in touch” with ordinary people than May. Opinium said the poll showed that the Tories plan to unite the right-wing vote against divided left was working. Among Eurosceptic voters, support for May was up 10 points, at the expense of Nigel Farage.
Coming out of the debates, the two main candidates were neck and neck, both polling within the margin of error of each other. Possible challengers like Farage and Cable had both struggled over the campaign, and the two frontrunners slowly pulled ahead of the pack. Senator Theresa May spent the last few weeks on a blitz of the Midlands, alongside West Midlands First Minister and Senate lead candidate Sajid Javid, the Conservatives particularly targeted deprived areas that were swinging away from Labour for the first time, May hammering home her pledges to get an EU referendum, controls on immigration, and to crack down on violent crime.
Sajid Javid headed up the Conservative's Senate campaign, but he frequently polled behind May
As Miliband remained relatively popular, May turned her attacks to the Prime Minister, Emily Thornberry and Labour’s Senate Lead Candidate Diane Abbott. Both had low approval ratings, especially Thornberry, who’s time in Downing Street had been plagued by gaffes, divisions and gridlock. The United for Change split and the lack of any meaningful legislation passing through the Senate had, fairly or not, made Thornberry seem incompetent and unable to control her own party. May warned of Thornberry and Abbott “pulling the strings” of a Miliband Government. May’s comments were condemned as sexist by some in the liberal press such as Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee but the mud seemed to stick.
Miliband meanwhile was focused on maximising turnout in his city citadels, quashing any challenge from Cable or Bartley in a speech outside Lambeth Hospital, Miliband promised “serious leadership” on confronting global issues such as climate change and Britain's growing debt. More importantly, Miliband warned in the event of a May Presidency and an EU referendum, the Commonwealth would drift away from Europe, pushing Britain into the hands of Donald Trump’s America and putting the NHS at the mercy of American insurance and pharmaceutical companies.
Voters would increasingly consolidate around the main parties after seven Britons were killed in a Sri Lankan terror attack after suicide bombers targeted a luxury hotel in Colombo. The attack triggered a crisis, and with concerns of further escalating political violence, the Miliband Government banned travel to Sri Lanka and began the massive logistical challenge of bringing home the nearly 9,000 British citizens trapped in Sri Lanka, Miliband came off well in the crisis, helping to coordinate the British response, appearing statesmanlike and Presidential. May also benefited from the attack, national security had been a major blank of her manifesto, and with international terror at the top of most newspapers, she promised sweeping new terror legislation within her first hundred days.
“A Counter-Terrorism Bill will give "the worst" terrorist offenders a 13-year minimum jail term. And the possibility of early release from custody will be removed for any offenders. The announcement comes after the London Bridge attack - whose culprit was a convicted terrorist out on licence. Ms May was condemned by the father of one of the victims, Jack Merritt, for politicising the attack. Intelligence chiefs are to be given sweeping powers to disrupt and target foreign spies living and working in Britain. An Espionage Bill will aim to clamp down on hostile states’ activities. The catch-all law will close down legal loopholes to ensure it is always illegal to carry out the covert operations - in a bid to thwart potential rivals. Theresa May promised to tackle Russia’s shadowy GRU after the Salisbury nerve attack. May also proposed to give authorities powers like the US's Registration Act, which forces foreign agents to disclose themselves.” - Theresa May’s national security speech, at a glance, Oliver Milne, The Mirror (2019)
May capitalised on the Colombo and Derry attacks to propose stricter sentencing for terrorists
The Sri Lankan attacks weren’t the only acts of political violence to affect the campaign trail, closer to home things were heating up in Northern Ireland as a divisive Premier election took place. The Presidential election increasingly fell down sectarian lines with Unionist Communities falling in behind May or Farage and Nationalists backing Miliband or Cable. During a riot in Derry, journalist Laura McKree was shot dead by a Nationalist splinter group and Alliance Premier candidate Niamoi Long was attacked in the streets by a militant Unionist youth group, desperate pleas for calm seemed to fall on death ears as Northern Ireland moved closer and closer to the bad old days.
On mainland Great Britain, UKIP’s Gerrard Batten, emboldened by a better than expected debate performance, continued to chase headlines. His ally, far-right leader Tommy Robinson, faced trial at the Old Bailey for contempt of court. Alongside former BNP MP Paul Goulding, Batten led a group of demonstrators outside the courthouse as part of the #FreeTommy campaign. Batten’s supporters clashed in violent outbursts with both police and counter-demonstrators as Robinson was convicted and sent down. Batten declared to the rally that his first act as President would be to do all in his power to secure Robinson’s release. The dark side of British politics had a new tribune, and his name was Gerrard Batten.
Robinson reaffirmed his endorsement for Batten before entering the courthouse
“Tommy Robinson has arrived at the Old Bailey for the latest stage of the case in which he allegedly committed contempt of court. Attorney General Catherine McKinnell announced earlier this month fresh proceedings against Robinson. Robinson told supporters outside the court that the case against him was “politically motivated”. At least 500 supporters have gathered outside the court in London, including UKIP Presidential candidate Gerrard Batten. Robinson was jailed for 14 months last year after he filmed a criminal trial in Leeds but the ruling was overturned by the Court of Appeal in August. The footage, lasting around an hour and a half, was watched 200,000 times within hours of being posted on Facebook. It was filmed during one of a series of trials of a Huddersfield grooming gang, which was covered by strict reporting restrictions. Robinson was freed from prison after serving three months of his sentence.” - Tommy Robinson arrives at court for the latest stage of contempt case, TalkRadio (2019)
The Julian Assange case would play a large role in the final weeks of the campaign, Senator May had publicly welcomed Assange’s arrest and called for him to be prosecuted without delay, meanwhile, the coalition was more divided, with Miliband taking a hands-off approach leaving the Assange matter to the courts. Farage and the Brexit Alliance were the loudest voices defending Assange, however, the ongoing trial severely damaged Farage, as Assange testified that Farage had visited him the Ecuadorian embassy several times, Assange even alluded that Farage had passed him confidential House of Commons briefings and other sensitive data. Whilst Assange didn’t provide any proof, the allegation was enough for the Home Office to open an official investigation into Farage, to Farage’s allies it was a political ploy to keep him from the Presidency, for his adversaries it was proof the man was a traitor.
With the nation on edge and fears of instability at the top of voters minds, the British people went out to vote. The last door was knocked, the last speeches said and the last canvasser was chased from a house by a scary-looking dog. Both main candidates had promised to bring back stability, break the Parliamentary deadlock and lead the country to better days, and now the voters had spoken. As political junkies settled in to watch the nights events, for the first time in nearly 30 years, they were not greeted by David Dimbleby, who had retired early in the year, but instead by the BBC’s Emily Maitlis, who made history by becoming the first woman to anchor an election night. Election night 2019 was about to begin.
"It is five minutes to ten on Thursday the 2nd of May, polling day across the Commonwealth of Britain. Welcome to the BBC's election centre at New Broadcasting House in London. A very good evening, for the fourth time in British history the Presidency of the Commonwealth of Britain is up for grabs. This time, with parliament in deadlock and the great political questions of our time unresolved, the stakes are higher than ever. In a few moments, polling stations across the Commonwealth will close, voting will be over and we'll be able to reveal the result of our exit poll. Will Ed Miliband be back in Buckingham? Will Theresa May beat him to it, or will a third candidate cause an upset? Five years ago, Ed Miliband pipped Michael Howard to the post and took Buckingham by a slim margin, can he do it again? The candidates voted earlier today, they know these ballot boxes hold the key to their futures. My colleague, Andrew Marr, is watching the drama unfold at Miliband HQ in Doncaster..." - Emily Maitlis, BBC Election Night (2019)
Miliband watched the results come in with his inner circle
“Critically assess the impact of May’s “Midland Blitz” on the 2019 Presidental Election (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
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I feel like this has been set up so well this election feels like it could go anywhere. I think Miliband can take it in the second round as this Britain seems to have a small progressive majority, but I can see the Senate being swung heavily towards the Conservatives. But I'm actually in suspense here, its really well done!
2019 Exit Poll
(Big Ben Chimes)
MILIBAND HOLDS PRESIDENCY.
FORECAST MILIBAND WINNING FIRST ROUND WITH 28% OF THE VOTE.
(Big Ben Chimes)
LABOUR WINS SENATE
FORECAST LABOUR LARGEST PARTY IN SENATE WITH 89 SEATS
Emily Maitlis - Our exit poll is suggesting that Ed Miliband will win the first round when all the votes are counted. According to our exit poll, President Miliband is on 28% of the vote, Senator May on 26%, Nigel Farage MP on 14%, Defence Secretary Vince Cable on 10%, Senator Gerard Batten on 9%, Businesswoman Heidi Allen on 7% and Environment Secretary Jonathan Bartley on 6%.
Laura Kuenssberg - That's Miliband with a two-point lead, but of course our exit poll has a margin of error of 3-4 points, and it will be the transfers that decide who enters Buckingham
EM - Meanwhile in the Senate, our exit poll has Labour on 89 seats in the Senate, down 6. The Conservatives on 81, down 28. The Brexit Alliance on 38, up 38. The Liberal Democrats on 35, up 2. UKIP on 25, down 30. United for Change on 21, up 21. The Greens on 18, down 5 and all other parties on 53, up 8. So that's both parties seeing losses at the expense of the new kids on the block, namely the Brexit Alliance and UFC.
LK - Again very close, just eight seats between Labour and the Tories
EM - Finally we have the Premiers: Labour on 6, up 1. The Conservatives on 4, down 1, the SNP on one, holding Scotland and our exit poll has called the Northern Irish Premiership for Naomi Long of the Alliance Party, a historic result if true. Again this is just an exit poll, we all remember the last exit poll calling Buckingham for Michael Howard and Ed Miliband going on to win. This is a dramatic poll, but it seems to suggest that Ed Miliband is on course to hold the Presidency. Your reaction Laura?
LK - Well this has been a very turbulent few years for the Commonwealth, we saw two brand new parties form, we've seen violence at home and abroad, and our Parliament has spent the last few years in total gridlock, so I would expect an equally turbulent election. Our exit poll has just two points in it! That's definitely within the margin or error and only eight seats separate Labour and the Tories in the Senate, this will all come down to those transfers as the smaller candidates are eliminated one by one.
EM - Yes it appears the outcome will be decided by the second preference of Farage, Cable and Batten voters above all, that's bad news for Theresa May, her natural allies - Farage and Batten - have both told their supporters not to give May their second preference. Farage said he would only give a final round endorsement if May agreed to campaign for leave in a referendum, which she refused, and Batten has said the whole systems corrupt and that May is part of the same liberal elite as Miliband is. Cable, on the other hand, has clearly given his second place endorsement to Miliband, saying an EU referendum and the possibility of Nigel Farage in the cabinet is too great a risk. Of course, it's not the nominees and party leaders that decide where the preferences go but the voters, they could very well ignore the advice of their favoured candidates.
LK - Yes, if Miliband wins another term that'll be another five years for Labour in Buckingham, alongside the last eight years in Downing Street. In the last four Presidental races only one man, Michael Howard, was able to win a second term. Unfortunately for both Miliband and May the Senate is still in a straight heat, with both parties on around 80-90 seats and neither traditional bloc holding a clear majority. Viewers will know Miliband has no majority in the Senate, even with seven different parties supporting him, and if our exit poll is right, Labour has lost seats, meaning the chance of a clear Senate majority is even more unlikely.
EM - A mixed night for the Brexit Alliance as well, at the start of this campaign Nigel Farage was polling around the same level as Miliband and May, some polls even had him taking second or even first place, from that he has fallen to a respectable, but distant third. However, 38 Senate seats for a party only founded a few weeks ago is nothing to sniff at, and with the Senate and Buckingham on a knife's edge, Mr Farage might find himself as the kingmaker.
LK - His old party UKIP has also had a mixed night, they have lost more than half their Senators, but they have managed to hold on and not be wiped out, there was talk that with Gerard Batten embracing Tommy Robinson and Farage eating into their vote they might fall below the 4% threshold, but Mr Batten has outpolled Heidi Allen, and he's outpolled Mr Bartley who is a sitting Cabinet Minister so it looks like we'll be seeing at least some UKIP lanyards around the Senate in the years and months to come.
EM - Divisive seems to be the keyword of this exit poll, in the Senate and in Buckingham Britain seems to be split roughly 50/50. Let's wait for the first results to come in so we can measure the exit poll against some actual data, we'll get John Curtis on in just a minute but in the meantime, Jeremy Vine is using the BBC's famously massive CGI budget to show how the various transfers could play out and what Miliband and May need to get themselves over that 50% line...
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Oh boy.
Is there any way of having a functional majority in the Senate now? Because the pro-Brexit parties aren't going to support May with her refusing the referendum.
Miliband is going to have a tough job, assuming he wins.
Is there any way of having a functional majority in the Senate now? Because the pro-Brexit parties aren't going to support May with her refusing the referendum.
Miliband is going to have a tough job, assuming he wins.
May supports having a referendum, she's just said she'd campaign to remain.
But yes either side getting a Senate majority will be fairly difficult, the deficit hawks in UFC and the classical wing of the Liberal Democrats are hesitant to prop up Labour in the Senate, especially considering their lead candidate is die-hard socialist Diane Abbott. Meanwhile, the Tories will need the Brexit Party, UKIP and at least one centrist party to get Sajid Javid a majority, but both the Lib Dems and UFC don't want to touch any deal involving Batten or Farage.