If such perfect storm takes place, you can be sure that the Tuileries Palace will resonate with cheers and laughing. It may be as well, that the great victor of the Eurasian War won't be the small Greek Kingdom but France.
That also means a russian victory. If Britain pulls completely out of the war, then the Ottoman Empire will be crushed in a matter of months. If Britain just pulls out the army, but maintains the naval blockade and supports the Ottomans financially, the Russians will prevail but not after an additional campaign season. In the dissertation I posted a few posts before, there was a description of the very low quality ottoman army of the Caucasus. In contrast, the Rumelian Army was a much better force and better lead. Out of 178k men, only 12k were basibozuk irregulars. The problem was that there were extremely few reservists once this army is wasted by a year long campaign and disease (as in OTL). Once this army is attrited, there is almost nothing that can stop the Russians advancing down to Constantinople.
In contrast , the russian standing army before the war had 1,170 million men. By the end of the Crimean War it was expanded at 2,5 million. Granted, Russia could not properly equip all of the expanded army or give them good training. In TTL they dont have to, as the standing army is more than enough. Any reservists can form garrisons, while the field army can use only regulars. Thats a great butterfly due to Austria not heing a factor and France being neutral.
The only non-ASB senario for stalemate in the Balkan Front, I can think off, goes as follows:
- The regular Ottoman field army has a pretty good 1st year of operations and the frontline is kept along the Danube, with its fortresses in ottoman hands.
- A massive british field army takes the brunt of the fighting during the 2nd year, while the Ottomans train a new army with british funds and weapons. At the same time they send only scraps in Caucasus, mostly irregular bands. It goes without saying that the british army has to fight the Russian to a stalemate.
- The new Ottoman army takes the field again in the 3rd year of the war, while the British can maintan their army at the same levels (at least 100k excluding logistics). All and all, it requires more than double the OTL British commitment (40k field army) and lots of luck.
Source: The Russian Army and Foreign Wars, by Gudrun Persson
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That also means a russian victory. If Britain pulls completely out of the war, then the Ottoman Empire will be crushed in a matter of months. If Britain just pulls out the army, but maintains the naval blockade and supports the Ottomans financially, the Russians will prevail but not after an additional campaign season. In the dissertation I posted a few posts before, there was a description of the very low quality ottoman army of the Caucasus. In contrast, the Rumelian Army was a much better force and better lead. Out of 178k men, only 12k were basibozuk irregulars. The problem was that there were extremely few reservists once this army is wasted by a year long campaign and disease (as in OTL). Once this army is attrited, there is almost nothing that can stop the Russians advancing down to Constantinople.
In contrast , the russian standing army before the war had 1,170 million men. By the end of the Crimean War it was expanded at 2,5 million. Granted, Russia could not properly equip all of the expanded army or give them good training. In TTL they dont have to, as the standing army is more than enough. Any reservists can form garrisons, while the field army can use only regulars. Thats a great butterfly due to Austria not heing a factor and France being neutral.
The only non-ASB senario for stalemate in the Balkan Front, I can think off, goes as follows:
- The regular Ottoman field army has a pretty good 1st year of operations and the frontline is kept along the Danube, with its fortresses in ottoman hands.
- A massive british field army takes the brunt of the fighting during the 2nd year, while the Ottomans train a new army with british funds and weapons. At the same time they send only scraps in Caucasus, mostly irregular bands. It goes without saying that the british army has to fight the Russian to a stalemate.
- The new Ottoman army takes the field again in the 3rd year of the war, while the British can maintan their army at the same levels (at least 100k excluding logistics). All and all, it requires more than double the OTL British commitment (40k field army) and lots of luck.
Source: The Russian Army and Foreign Wars, by Gudrun Persson
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