Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[HerodotosofBerlin]

Maybe instead of the pontos greeks we could get the levantine aka. the antiokhen greeks ending up in a population exchange to bolster greeces population in their new teretories in the future.

Antiochian Greek Christians - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Hertog Jann]

		Maybe instead of the pontos greeks we could get the levantine aka. the antiokhen greeks ending up in a population exchange to bolster greeces population in their new teretories in the future. Antiochian Greek Christians - Wikipedia en.m.wikipedia.org The problem is that they are not Greeks, but Orthodox Arabs. If we say that customs, language and religion connect a group of people, the Levantine Orthodox Arabs and Greeks have only common religion. Orthodox Albanians or Bulgarians, would be much easier to integrate because they have similar or the same customs as their Greek neighbors in Macedonia, Epirus or Albania.

 

[HerodotosofBerlin]

		The problem is that they are not Greeks, but Orthodox Arabs. If we say that customs, language and religion connect a group of people, the Levantine Orthodox Arabs and Greeks have only common religion. Orthodox Albanians or Bulgarians, would be much easier to integrate because they have similar or the same customs as their Greek neighbors in Macedonia, Epirus or Albania.

Maybe we could see the levantine orthodox greek become to greece as sort of what romanians are to italy

 

[JanSmuts321]

Maybe we could see the levantine orthodox greek become to greece as sort of what romanians are to italy

While a Christian Antioch state is certainly interesting, I cannot see it being possible as it doesn't have the demographics for a Lebanon scenario, I don't think it is feasible location for a native MENA Christian state

 

[HerodotosofBerlin]

While a Christian Antioch state is certainly interesting, I cannot see it being possible as it doesn't have the demographics for a Lebanon scenario, I don't think it is feasible location for a native MENA Christian state

U misunderstood what i meant. I thought about greek arabs moving to greece if you know what i mean

 

[Duke of Orlando]

While a Christian Antioch state is certainly interesting, I cannot see it being possible as it doesn't have the demographics for a Lebanon scenario, I don't think it is feasible location for a native MENA Christian state

I think that as with most things in the early modern Middle East it depends on who has control of the region. Obviously one forming naturally from the native population if it’s controlled by the Ottomans or Egypt is ASB. But, as with the hypothetical Pontic Greek state we discussed, other things are possible with a sufficiently powerful backer wanting it to happen. I think a Lebanon type situation is possible if someone, let’s just say the French for discussions sake, want it to happen and control the area. Like let’s say the French want a “Christian” state based around Aleppo. Similar to what they have going on in Lebanon. They could encourage other religious minorities between it an Lebanon to immigrate there like the Druze an Alawites, along with other native Christians in the area.

 

[Hertog Jann]

Lebanon can include Orthodox Arabs in a population exchange.

The next possibility is an armenian Cilicia that includes Antioch. Cilicia was a traditional armenian homeland for almost a thousand years. According to the Armenian Patriarchate records, Cilicia (Adana Vilayet and Marash sanjak of the Aleppo vilayet) had more than 300,000 Armenians in 1914, even after the Hamidian Masssacres and the Adana Massacre. That is a compact population in a rather small region. Its important to remember that Cilicia was the only armenian heartland that the Armenian capitalists invested in. Great agricultural land and mountains rich in various ores made Cilicia the most developed armenian region. The prosperous OTL cilician armenian population was booming and had to be curtailed in a series of massacres that culminated in the 1915 genocide.

Therefore, Orthodox Arabs have another opportunity.

Ottoman Armenian population - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In general, the Adana Massacre is not as well known as the Hamidian Massacres, even though 20-30k Armenians were killed, with a few Assyrians and Greeks in the mix. Coincidentally, the massacre took place after the cotton boom, when Armenians and Greeks were investing heavily in the cotton industry and trade. All the factories belonged to Armenians, Greeks or a german company. Since time immemorial , the "easiest" way to obtain ready-made wealth is by liquidating the previous owner. This is what happened in Cilicia.

 

[Bloodmage]

In general, the Adana Massacre is not as well known as the Hamidian Massacres, even though 20-30k Armenians were killed, with a few Assyrians and Greeks in the mix. Coincidentally, the massacre took place after the cotton boom, when Armenians and Greeks were investing heavily in the cotton industry and trade. All the factories belonged to Armenians, Greeks or a german company. Since time immemorial , the "easiest" way to obtain ready-made wealth is by liquidating the previous owner. This is what happened in Cilicia

I assume the cotton boom was the period during which the American Civil War took place,given that the Egyptiotes furthered their influence and became the biggest merchants in Egypt during this period as well when they took the place the americans held in the market

I have to Agree with you it is truly the easiest way to gain wealth but also the surest way to shoot yourself in the given that you eliminated your Capitalist Class that was willing to invest

That is a compact population in a rather small region. Its important to remember that Cilicia was the only armenian heartland that the Armenian capitalists invested in.

That is true i wonder if such a state gains independence what will be the view of Armenian nationalists in the caucasus,thougth i have to also say that such a state will view Greece/Hellas as an important ally given it proximity to it and their shared faith and customs

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I assume the cotton boom was the period during which the American Civil War took place,given that the Egyptiotes furthered their influence and became the biggest merchants in Egypt during this period as well when they took the place the americans held in the market

I have to Agree with you it is truly the easiest way to gain wealth but also the surest way to shoot yourself in the given that you eliminated your Capitalist Class that was willing to invest

That is true i wonder if such a state gains independence what will be the view of Armenian nationalists in the caucasus,thougth i have to also say that such a state will view Greece/Hellas as an important ally given it proximity to it and their shared faith and customs

Armenian Cilicia could be to Greece what a Pontic Greek Entity would be to Armenia proper in that they both would depend on the other group for immediate defensive needs. Some sort of Pontic-Hellasian-Armenian-Cilician Pact/Alliance. Pontus wouldn’t even need to necessarily be separate from Armenia. It’s more of a promise to protect each other’s countrymen in times of emergency and considering each other’s people equal citizen while in one of the other 2-3 countries.

 

[Sarasker]

While a Christian Antioch state is certainly interesting,

It sure is interesting!

 

[Lascaris]

A potential line, after taking into account economic, strategic and demographic factors, could be the following (presented as a list)

-Menderes Valley up to Buldan
-Uysal Dagi mountain range
- Sindirgi
-Simav river

The main points being: Inclusion of the fertile Menderes valley that was responsible for much of the OTL Ottoman exports, control of the Straits, some defence depth for Smyrna and the Dardanelles. Any asiatic Greece needs to be economically viable and defensible. Otherwise you end up with a strip that cannot be defended or have any significant economic value and would need yearly subsidies.

http://ontheworldmap.com/turkey/large-detailed-physical-map-of-turkey.jpg

https://folkdancefootnotes.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/anatolia-ethnic-19101.png?w=640

That border using 1912 statistics has roughly 800,000 Greeks and 1 million Muslims I think. With another ~900,000 Greeks beyond it. If you add Macedonia and Thrace, never-mind Constantinople and you assume more or less voluntary population exchanges the populations being exchanged either side get too imbalanced for my tastes. Granted you could add Armenian populations in the picture perhaps and except from the exchange Valaads, Albanians, Pomaks and Circassians which would amount to something between 100,000 and 258,000 people. The only statistics I have for Circassians and Pomaks in the Bursa vilayet was 108,000 and 50,000 respectively but I have no breakdown by kazas, only that large numbers were in Balikesir sanjak.

 

[Hertog Jann]

I assume the cotton boom was the period during which the American Civil War took place

Actually it was after 1900. In 1912, the small Cilician Plain produced 115k bales of cotton out of 200k in total for the whole Ottoman Empire (Balkan provinces included in the statistics). 35k bales of cotton were produced in Smyrna.

Source. The book has lists of ottoman exports and their value. Pretty interesting.

Daily Consular and Trade Reports

books.google.com

get too imbalanced for my tastes.

What do you think would be a viable border? Perhaps the OTL Smyrna Zone with th addition of Menderes/Meander Valley?

 

[Lascaris]

What do you think would be a viable border? Perhaps the OTL Smyrna Zone with th addition of Menderes/Meander Valley?

Oh I'm debating that with myself for quite a while. And it depends on the POD and date. For example if TTL you have a complete Ottoman collapse circa 1870 for example that's before the Ottomans settling large numbers of Muslims from the Balkans and the Caucasus in Asia Minor.

My current working answer is this, with the POD in mid/late 1920

That said with the same POD I had played with a few different options as seen below:

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

If those maps are based on a POD in 1920 as you mentioned, then they really aren't very applicable to this timeline's situation. The POD was a century earlier. While there's no POD that can win you the napoleonic wars(or equivalent) for France in 1815, there's plenty in 1715. Same here, starting in the 1920s, there's no good way for Greece to own Constantinople or the entirety of the straights zone.

With our POD in 1820, and the way the timeline is headed, Constantinople is near guaranteed, and the straight zone along with the whole ionian coast is likely in my opinion. If the turks keep getting smashed by the Russians, their demographics hurt by many wars centered on their muslim populations, while the christians of the empire are more prosperous, then by the 1920s you get a different situation. Instead of Armenia and Greece being worried about being able to hold on to what they have from the vengeful turks, you can have the opposite situation, of Turkey struggling to defend their lands from Armenian/Georgian, and Greek incursion.

While the Turks certainly had the demographic advantage at the time of the POD,1820, a lot can change. A century ago Germany had many times the population of turkey, almost 10x, today there are more turks than germans. A series of disastrous wars, financial collapse, and bad governing can seriously hamper a population, while good government and successful expansion leads to large populations during this time period. The greeks and caucasian christians got shafted really really hard in OTL. While I wouldn't wish the same fate on the turks, it's not an impossibility.

 

[Sol Zagato]

With our POD in 1820, and the way the timeline is headed, Constantinople is near guaranteed, and the straight zone along with the whole ionian coast is likely in my opinion.

Nothing is guaranteed. The Sublime Porte could get lucky. Or, for example, get its shit together

 

[Hertog Jann]

@Lascaris you mentioned a voluntary exchange of populations. What do you think would be the conditions for an compulsory exchange as in OTL ?

 

[Lascaris]

@Lascaris you mentioned a voluntary exchange of populations. What do you think would be the conditions for an compulsory exchange as in OTL ?

In OTL what you had was the Greek population expelled by force and then post facto the Muslim population sent the other way to make room for the refugees. Hopefully anything of the short is avoided TTL. On the other hand both the Greek-Bulgarian exchange of populations after Neully and the one between Bulgaria and Turkey in 1915 were on paper at least voluntary.

The other issue in OTL was of course the property of the exchanged populations. Supposedly the ones the Greek refugees were 10 times the value of what the Turkish exchanges left behind, or at least that was claimed by the refugee organizations. At a very rough calculation this puts the per capita properties of the Greeks at about 75% higher than their Turkish counterparts. While on average Greek per capita income and by extension properties were likely higher, after all between them and the Armenians they covered a much higher percentage of the Ottoman empire's middle class 75% is arguably on the high end...

 

[A_simple_pilgrim]

You are right of course, of nothing being guaranteed. Greece might very well lose a war, badly, and be cut down to size in the near future.
But look at it this way.

This is a map of the situation before the first Balkan War. This is the year 1910 basically. You might notice some things, such as Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria already being officially independent, instead of autonomous vassals. You will also notice the size of Greece. It lacks Epirus, southern Albania, northern Epirus, half the aegean isles, the dodecanese, and Crete.

This is 60 years in the future, and Greece is already significantly larger than it was before the beginning of that war. The states it was competing with for territory, either literally don't exist, or are vassals at the moment. Greece has every opportunity to grow significantly larger in the balkans than it was in our timeline, intruding into Serbian, Albanian( if they exist), and Bulgarian land.

A much larger Greece, with all of it being better utilized, more power and more efficiency together. Greece almost claimed most of Thrace, Constantinople, and parts of Anatolia in our timeline. If this Greece can't surpass the territorial ambitions of OTL Greece, than it really wasn't thinking big enough.

For the Greece of this story, it is a time for big ideas. The Μεγαλι Ιδεα.

 

[cmakk1012]

The Megali Idea is very good, yes, but it also ensures a Turkish arch nemesis forever. Even in a best case scenario for Greek expansion Turkey will still outpopulate them eventually, and more importantly will be willing to ally with anyone they can to try and get their revanchism fulfilled. I’m not saying Greece shouldn’t expand as much as possible, but I am saying that we should expect that once they take, say, Constantinople, the Turks won’t accept it there and then. I would expect multiple wars, probably tied to the world war equivalents ITTL.

 

[Sphenodon]

With regard to Pontus - given that it isn't terribly far by water from the Straits (which are about a foregone conclusion at the rate Greece is expansion) and has natural defensive terrain in the eponymous Pontic Mountains, is it necessarily impossible for Greece to hold and supply? In the event that a friendly Armenia is established to its south and east, this becomes even easier.