Unintentional bump with an idea I had:
So I finished rereading this excellent timeline and saw some of the 1976 predictions people made. As such, I figured I'd have a go at it - assuming Ronaldius Caesar wins the primary (as he tends to do when he's not facing an incumbent), but has a long and difficult fight against some of our favorite creatures - Baker, Percy, Mathias, Buckley, Gurney, basically any Republican with a pulse and a buddy with deep pockets. He's got to play hard-right to win, a la 1976, and all of that gets placed around his neck for the upcoming general election. Seeing as he knows McGovern has a snowball's chance in the South (gehddam hippeh-lovah), Baker is going to get shunted in favor of Percy. Now that we have Reagan-Percy, let's have a look at the Democratic side of things.
There's no way around this - Phil Hart has cancer. He's not going to be able to run for re-election, and announces so in a deeply emotional press conference. As much as this is horrible, it helps one thing - McGovern, presumably on the advice of the Harts on his shoulders - Phil as the Angel and Gary as the Devil - can use the now-open VP slot to keep people from challenging him in the primary. Not necessarily making any one of his potential challengers his next running mate, but it's enough of a prize to consider that they're willing to forgo a primary if it means their own guaranteed shot in 4 years. I mean, there's not many people who want to run anyways (most of the Democratic McGovern haters are cranky old men who don't have the strength to run that kind of national campaign - hi McClellan! What's up Stennis! How're you doing, Eastland?), but for the few who see a shot, it works. Ultimately, though, he doesn't focus on them for the election. His goal is to win the damn thing, and he also sees that Ronnie is going to sweep the South no matter what he does. I'll say who I think would be a perfect choice for this in a minute, but I need to set the stage.
Time to analyze the shit out of the general.
- The economy is still suffering because of Arthur Burns, but it’s a lot better because Galbraith and Brimmer are catching stagflation and whatnot early. This means that, while the economy might not be a net benefit for McGovern, it’s not a drag on him either. Things are... fine. People aren’t amazed but aren’t upset.
- Taxpayer revolt is still happening. People are still having that extra fun conservative backlash. That all plays in Ronnie's favor. A LOT. No need to say more.
- Reagan had to run far right to win the primary. He has all of these things slung around his neck, and he has to answer for all of it with the general electorate. No more "gloomy Carter needs to go" platitudes, he has to actually answer for why he wants to slash X, Y, and a heap of Z. Meanwhile, McGovern can frame it as what he's
done. He's no longer the insurgent radical. He's The Man, and he's done a hell of a lot for all of us. He can milk that for those skittish moderates all he wants. It'd be kind of like Reagan '84 or Obama '12 in that respect, honestly.
- The big one. Fort Wayne. Bad no matter what, but it's entirely about how McGovern handles it. This definitely lets ol' Ronnie go "family values" and get some scared southerners and midwesterners on board, though. If McGovern waffles and goes full Eagleton, then he's finished. If Jean Hart is back and decides to basically tell him off again and to get him to say he wasn't aware of this (you know, he had a girlfriend then, he didn't know she had a child or put his name down as the father), then he can probably maneuver it into the nebulous partisan space of political raunchiness known as The Lewinsky Zone. It'll hurt, but who knows what McGovern can really do with it, and if his honest nature comes into conflict with political reality again?
So basically, it's about what McGovern has done for us, who's the real radical here, are the taxpayers ready to revolt, and if George has kept his bits clean. Now to get more granular and focus on individual blocs, states, and whatnot.
- If his cancer goes as OTL, Phil Hart dies in the general election. This means that the upper Midwest is a bit more secure, seeing as there's mourning and all sorts of "for Phil!" stuff going on there. Michigan is secure, we can say that much at least. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc are weirder but this does help. I don't doubt that McGovern gives an EXCELLENT speech at Phil Hart's funeral.
- There's no weird labor dynamic this time. McGovern has their full backing, seeing as the choice is between him (who at least supports them, even if Meany is pretty annoyed by his other views) and the Gipper, who comes off as wanting to smash every union leader's skull in with a car door Kingpin-style. The choice is basically "do we get into the tent or not," not who's the highest bidder.
- What about the West Coast? Trying to take on Reagan in California is a bad idea. You don't fight him in his own backyard. However, what about Oregon and Washington? The Left Coast can still be mobilized for McGovern, chances are Mark Hatfield might help his friend out over a man he deeply disagrees with, and he might be able to drop a couple of Boeing contracts in Scoop Jackson's mailbox to get that aid (the Senator from Boeing is up in 1976, so he's willing to do even more). That makes them swing states, in my view.
- FARMERS! So McGovern is one of the few Presidents to truly focus on detailed farm policy. Obviously the Sacramento Cowboy is very strong in the Great Plains, but that doesn't mean McGovern can't snipe a state or two out there. I'm thinking of his South Dakota, his home state, as well as Montana, who has a weird miner's union and small farmer dynamic that lets them elect liberals once in a while so long as they help them. McGovern obviously aids both of them quite a lot, so Montana is certainly feasible.
- Illinois comes down to Percy's strength versus union/liberal strength. That'll be HARD, to say the least, but it's certainly very doable.
- Missouri could be weird. Very weird indeed. However, though last time Wallace hauled him across the edge, this time there's something different going on. Maybe I'm shilling my own favorites here, but a certain two-term Congressman from Missouri's Sixth District is running for Senate and is immensely popular in the state. Furthermore, he has Dialogues with Litton, a show that thousands of Missourians watch, and he might strategically invite McGovern on as his guest to boost him. Bring government to the people, you know. Association with Jerry Litton in 1976 Missouri is solid gold, and it's not like a plane crash will even happen here.
- There's one more hellish set of states out there: the Mid-Atlantic. Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and whatnot need some help, as the suburban voters there might end up considering Saint Ron. If McGovern isn't careful, this last bit needs to be considered heavily or they're gone and so is his job. This last point launches me into the running mate selection.
So, what does McGovern need? He needs a replacement for Phil Hart who ALSO helps in those wary Mid-Atlantic states. Phil Hart's death and a powerful funeral are enough to haul him across the finish line in the upper Midwest, but everything slightly east of that is rougher. So, George needs a few things. He needs to make sure Catholic ethnics are still pleased with him. He needs another moral backbone made of pure titanium. And, most importantly, he needs someone ideally from the NJ-PA-DE-MD region. So, who could this be? If I could make an ideal form for this: an Irish-American Catholic from New Jersey, a fellow WWII veteran, a Princeton graduate, a canny politician who rose from nothing to the governorship, and a competent manager of the almost-comical political machine in the state Gary Hart called "raw sewage." More importantly, he can't have passed a deeply-unpopular policy yet, such as a tax increase. Most importantly, he needs to be so incorruptible that even the fucking mob complains about it. Oh wait, all of these exist! Allow me to introduce you to:
Elected in 1973, this is Governor Brendan Byrne of New Jersey. The most notable thing to use for him is that, in an FBI sting, NJ mob leaders called him "the man who couldn't be bought," due to how goddamn incorruptible he is. This made him incredibly popular in contrast with the corruption-fueled machinery of New Jersey, and doubtless he'd be a boon in the election. Plus, his most hated policy, the institution of the income tax, happened in 1976, so if he's picked he presumably delays the tax hike and maintains his popularity to aid the national ticket. Really, he could play the Mid-Atlantic Phil Hart, one who makes people feel like there's reform while also helping with Catholic voters. So now we have our tickets, and even if the southerners who wanted to topple the hippie are upset, they can't do too much that isn't already done.
Now that we've went through this, finally, here's how I see McGovern/Byrne vs Reagan/Percy going:
- GOP division and a mobilized Left Coast makes it possible for McGovern to win Oregon and Washington, the former especially with the implicit backing of Mark Hatfield.
- Missouri is a Biden situation, apparently, as the popular Senatorial candidate Jerry Litton gets a fair amount of straight-ticket from the rural Missourians who vote for him.
- Illinois is a skin-of-the-teeth win, as Percy loses a bit of his shine to Illinoisans when he's playing second-fiddle to the arch-conservative. They like the moderate Chuck, not the one who seems like Reagan's newest pet chimpanzee. Either way, Byrne helping to assuage suburbanites (who are the real worrying bloc here, unlike union voters with Nixon/Wallace in play) and McGovern playing to his strengths keeps Illinois for the Democrats.
- New Jersey and Delaware are super fucking narrow too, as in good God Brendan Byrne really worked his magic with the machinery (as shown by his OTL income tax passage, he's amazing at twisting arms and making the precursors to the Norcross family do what he wants them to do). Pennsylvania is a little bit better but still, youch that was too close for comfort.
- Fort Wayne + muh states rights help Reagan sweep the South, where he takes a simply gigantic margin.
- Enough small farmers in Montana, Iowa, and South Dakota walk into that voting booth and realize how much better things have gotten for them with McGovern McGoverning. Nobody else really cares about them, right?
- Better union support plus likely incoming Senate Majority Leader and definition of a transactional politician Robert Byrd wanting to have more of that sweet, sweet quid ready to extract porky quo from the White House gets McGovern over the edge in Mountain Mama.
Of course, this is just a very in-depth prediction, but I wanted to actually truly consider HOW McGovern could win against the political force of nature known as Ronald Wilson Reagan. Who knows what Yes is up to, but doubtless it’ll be excellent.