After generalplan ost

How long would it take Eastern Europe to recover from general plan ost

  • 20 years

    Votes: 6 5.9%
  • 40 years

    Votes: 12 11.8%
  • 60 years

    Votes: 51 50.0%
  • Other write in

    Votes: 33 32.4%

  • Total voters
    102

CalBear

Moderator
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Monthly Donor
One of the real problems folks have when they discuss Generalplan Ost is that that there was never a "finalized" version with all the proper signatures and Fuhrer Directive Number. This wasn't because the Reich had any intention of not carrying out the Plan, but because it was ever evolving as the war waxed and waned.

However, what is more or less indisputable is that the goal was to effectively obliterate the Polish people, leaving a remnant illiterate slave workforce to labor on the "settler plantations" that Hitler envisions gifting to senior Wehrmacht officers and Party loyalists, and to serve as helpers on the smaller farms that would have been granted to enlisted veterans (yes, and the enduring mystery is how he expected life long, 2rd or 3rd generation city dwellers to become farmers, happily working the land). This same group of ex-Wehrmacht officer and Landsers would also serve as a permanent militia force, prepared to deal with any sort of uprisings among the slave population (I rather suspect he stole this straight from the Escaped Slave Posse idea that existed across the Antebellum South), freeing the active force for serious border issues and to prepare for future conquests (Hitler believed that a country was destined to continue to expand or perish).

There is also a revisionist effort centered on the idea that the Reich would never have actually have even seriously tried to complete Gerneralplan Ost. This ignores the basic reality that the REich leadership was, in many ways, patently insane. While there would certainly have been efforts by various Gauleiter to preserve more of the population under their control while forcing competing regions to reduce more (primarily because higher production = more opportunity to embezzle, most of the Reich leadership were corrupt to a shocking degree), in the end it wouldn't matter. There enough true believers, starting with Himmler and Goebbels, with enough minions who were equally invested in the Cause, that any effort to fudge the numbers would have, overall, failed.

There is also something of a tendency for many modern commentators to believe that the German population itself would not have allowed this sort of genocide, that the common German Landser simply wouldn't have executed mass numbers of innocents, especially children. The difficulty with this is that the actual historic record illustrates that this is simply untrue. Certainly many Heer personnel would not have willingly shot down masses of civilians, however, there would not have been any need for them to do so. All Heer personnel would have been required to do was maintain a perimeter, not conduct the actual killing. A reasonably limited number of SS and Einsatzgruppen personnel would be, horrifically, sufficient to complete 90% or more of the Plan. IOTL the Einsatzengruppen never far exceeded 3,000 members. Despite that, they are considered to be responsible for at MINIMUM of 1.5 MILLION murders, perhaps 2M. We are all aware of how a very limited number of SS personnel managed to murder millions in a limited number of extermination camps, and slightly larger number of "Extermination through Labor" camps, the overall Generalplan Ost effort would have required little more field work, but not an exceptionally larger personnel allocation (Waffen SS divisions would have easily proved personnel in sufficient numbers without damaging the Reich's military position, given the reality that this entire scenario presupposed the defeat of the USSR, freeing up roughly 2/3 of OTL entire Wehrmacht).

The biggest, and easiest, way to implement "Extermination through Labor" is well known. Hitler, in his grandiose vision, required that all "Slavic" cultural traces be literally obliterated (book, art, music, etc) and that "Slavic" major cities (Warsaw, Kiev, Moscow, Saint Peterburg/Leningrad, etc) be literally destroyed until no two stones stood together. How could this be even remotely possible? By using the population of the city and outlying districts to disassemble the entire city, mainly by hand, mostly with improvised tools, working from dawn to dusk, while receiving 4-600 calories a day, no medical care, and minimal shelter. It doesn't take much imagination to realize just how rapidly the population would be destroyed in this circumstance (it is almost a certainty that they sort of mass crematoria featured in the camps would need to be constructed on-site, simply to manage all the bodies). It is a near certainty that the Reich would have run out of bodies before they ran out of Moscow, much less the mad plan to turn Metro St. Petersburg/Leningrad into a massive lake. Other parts of the population, including those with the most useful skills in the "trades" would have been deported to Berlin to reconstruct the Capital of the Reich into Germainia (about as serious a Fool's Errand as one could imagine in the area of Urban Planning). They would have been fed slightly better, but the death rate, even among these artisans and expert slaves would have hovered around 30% annually.

Lot of set up to answer the OP's question - The recovery time is entirely dependent on how long the Reich survives. It is unlikely to have the same 70 year lifespan as the Soviet Union, the Soviets at least accepted the utility of education and the scientific method, and corruption was on a somewhat smaller scale. The Reich was, in addition to being run by a pack of evil bastards, also enormously inefficient and rather hostile to higher education if it did not adhere to Party Doctrine. If it collapsed in 40 years (i.e. ~1973), there might be a chance of some sort of Slavic society/culture to survive, although it is questionable how much of it would be non-Russian, since the Russian Slavic population would be the overwhelming majority. If, however, the Nazi system survived for the USSR's three score and ten while retaining control of the European Peninsula to the Urals, there wouldn't be enough Slavs in Europe to repopulate the East. What would emerge would be a bastardized version of the various Slavic traditions as kept alive by the global diaspora of the various countries (primarily from North America and the UK/Commonwealth) and traditional German/Russian/Finnish/Scandinavian influences.
 
However, what is more or less indisputable is that the goal was to effectively obliterate the Polish people, leaving a remnant illiterate slave workforce to labor on the "settler plantations" that Hitler envisions gifting to senior Wehrmacht officers and Party loyalists, and to serve as helpers on the smaller farms that would have been granted to enlisted veterans (yes, and the enduring mystery is how he expected life long, 2rd or 3rd generation city dwellers to become farmers, happily working the land). This same group of ex-Wehrmacht officer and Landsers would also serve as a permanent militia force, prepared to deal with any sort of uprisings among the slave population (I rather suspect he stole this straight from the Escaped Slave Posse idea that existed across the Antebellum South), freeing the active force for serious border issues and to prepare for future conquests (Hitler believed that a country was destined to continue to expand or perish).

Sounds pretty Roman to me rather than American. Soldier colonies were pretty common at the end of the Republic. We all know everyone wanted to be the new Romans.

Land grants were given to Australian WWI soldiers after the war, less about slave labor in this case and more about clearing and civilizing the countryside. Most were urbanites but rural life had been romanticized for the last 50 years. Most failed miserably. But that is an example of a similar policy being enacted in the face of the general post-Industrial Revolution trend of rural decay. Reminds me of the American land grants in the 19thC. I have no idea if there were African equivalents but I wouldn't be surprised. But that is all living memory for a 1940s leader. And we know Hitler loved his cowboy stories.

So it is not hard to imagine what they were thinking. Plenty of others had similar (if less murderous) ideas.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
One of the real problems folks have when they discuss Generalplan Ost is that that there was never a "finalized" version with all the proper signatures and Fuhrer Directive Number. This wasn't because the Reich had any intention of not carrying out the Plan, but because it was ever evolving as the war waxed and waned.

However, what is more or less indisputable is that the goal was to effectively obliterate the Polish people, leaving a remnant illiterate slave workforce to labor on the "settler plantations" that Hitler envisions gifting to senior Wehrmacht officers and Party loyalists, and to serve as helpers on the smaller farms that would have been granted to enlisted veterans (yes, and the enduring mystery is how he expected life long, 2rd or 3rd generation city dwellers to become farmers, happily working the land). This same group of ex-Wehrmacht officer and Landsers would also serve as a permanent militia force, prepared to deal with any sort of uprisings among the slave population (I rather suspect he stole this straight from the Escaped Slave Posse idea that existed across the Antebellum South), freeing the active force for serious border issues and to prepare for future conquests (Hitler believed that a country was destined to continue to expand or perish).

There is also a revisionist effort centered on the idea that the Reich would never have actually have even seriously tried to complete Gerneralplan Ost. This ignores the basic reality that the REich leadership was, in many ways, patently insane. While there would certainly have been efforts by various Gauleiter to preserve more of the population under their control while forcing competing regions to reduce more (primarily because higher production = more opportunity to embezzle, most of the Reich leadership were corrupt to a shocking degree), in the end it wouldn't matter. There enough true believers, starting with Himmler and Goebbels, with enough minions who were equally invested in the Cause, that any effort to fudge the numbers would have, overall, failed.

There is also something of a tendency for many modern commentators to believe that the German population itself would not have allowed this sort of genocide, that the common German Landser simply wouldn't have executed mass numbers of innocents, especially children. The difficulty with this is that the actual historic record illustrates that this is simply untrue. Certainly many Heer personnel would not have willingly shot down masses of civilians, however, there would not have been any need for them to do so. All Heer personnel would have been required to do was maintain a perimeter, not conduct the actual killing. A reasonably limited number of SS and Einsatzgruppen personnel would be, horrifically, sufficient to complete 90% or more of the Plan. IOTL the Einsatzengruppen never far exceeded 3,000 members. Despite that, they are considered to be responsible for at MINIMUM of 1.5 MILLION murders, perhaps 2M. We are all aware of how a very limited number of SS personnel managed to murder millions in a limited number of extermination camps, and slightly larger number of "Extermination through Labor" camps, the overall Generalplan Ost effort would have required little more field work, but not an exceptionally larger personnel allocation (Waffen SS divisions would have easily proved personnel in sufficient numbers without damaging the Reich's military position, given the reality that this entire scenario presupposed the defeat of the USSR, freeing up roughly 2/3 of OTL entire Wehrmacht).

The biggest, and easiest, way to implement "Extermination through Labor" is well known. Hitler, in his grandiose vision, required that all "Slavic" cultural traces be literally obliterated (book, art, music, etc) and that "Slavic" major cities (Warsaw, Kiev, Moscow, Saint Peterburg/Leningrad, etc) be literally destroyed until no two stones stood together. How could this be even remotely possible? By using the population of the city and outlying districts to disassemble the entire city, mainly by hand, mostly with improvised tools, working from dawn to dusk, while receiving 4-600 calories a day, no medical care, and minimal shelter. It doesn't take much imagination to realize just how rapidly the population would be destroyed in this circumstance (it is almost a certainty that they sort of mass crematoria featured in the camps would need to be constructed on-site, simply to manage all the bodies). It is a near certainty that the Reich would have run out of bodies before they ran out of Moscow, much less the mad plan to turn Metro St. Petersburg/Leningrad into a massive lake. Other parts of the population, including those with the most useful skills in the "trades" would have been deported to Berlin to reconstruct the Capital of the Reich into Germainia (about as serious a Fool's Errand as one could imagine in the area of Urban Planning). They would have been fed slightly better, but the death rate, even among these artisans and expert slaves would have hovered around 30% annually.

Lot of set up to answer the OP's question - The recovery time is entirely dependent on how long the Reich survives. It is unlikely to have the same 70 year lifespan as the Soviet Union, the Soviets at least accepted the utility of education and the scientific method, and corruption was on a somewhat smaller scale. The Reich was, in addition to being run by a pack of evil bastards, also enormously inefficient and rather hostile to higher education if it did not adhere to Party Doctrine. If it collapsed in 40 years (i.e. ~1973), there might be a chance of some sort of Slavic society/culture to survive, although it is questionable how much of it would be non-Russian, since the Russian Slavic population would be the overwhelming majority. If, however, the Nazi system survived for the USSR's three score and ten while retaining control of the European Peninsula to the Urals, there wouldn't be enough Slavs in Europe to repopulate the East. What would emerge would be a bastardized version of the various Slavic traditions as kept alive by the global diaspora of the various countries (primarily from North America and the UK/Commonwealth) and traditional German/Russian/Finnish/Scandinavian influences.

So sadly true. I think that whatever we try to it will be nearly impossible to make the next generation understand what level of darkness Nazism represented. One of the many good things this forum does is keeping people informed of first how evil they were and second how plausible it would be for a similar slippery descent to hell to happen again.
 
I think you’re being overly intentionalist CalBear, but I am very heavily functionalist in my approach. I’ve only raised issues of fact, where to my belief and reading, you underestimate the horror of the German occupations in the east and South East.

In general I’m citing the police battalion studies following Browning. There’s a useful translated sourcebook here “The good old days” available as well.

Certainly many Heer personnel would not have willingly shot down masses of civilians,

Heer involvement in actions and general anti-partisan operations is well known. Enthusiasm for engaging in actions as opposed to fighting soviet civilians who’d shoot back is well known. This is separate of course to heer operational units at all levels lending a hand during decisive parts of the war.

A reasonably limited number of SS and Einsatzgruppen personnel would be, horrifically, sufficient to complete 90% or more of the Plan. IOTL the Einsatzengruppen never far exceeded 3,000 members. Despite that, they are considered to be responsible for at MINIMUM of 1.5 MILLION murders, perhaps 2M

Actions weren’t just the einsatzgruppen. The police battalions of the order police were essential. As were hiwis, organised out of the ultraright movements in occupied areas. As were the heer (cordon and execution).

The other thing is the critical 1941 junction where encampment is chosen for the method of murder: the organisational collapse of the einsatzgruppen due to their job. Yes they were fatigued from over use, but the rate of psych injury appears to be much much higher than normal. Even for their length of engagement. Especially for an elite ideologically motivated unit. The einsatzgruppen broke under their task.

The pace was reduced. More heer and police battalions were brought in. But also the camp system. And the camp system was inspired by the heers encamped disease and starvation murder of about a million pows.

I firmly believe that in broadly settled areas, with a rural proletariat that’s just survived collectivisation, encampment is not going to work for an agricultural labour force.

I firmly believe that the lack of productivity of Germany would cause an economic crisis of the grade of the 1930s.

While murdering every slav other than some “American” fantasy of slaves and reservations might remain a universally common policy and popular goal: the implementation limits outside of levelling the capitals is going to result in a higher survival rate than in the fantasy. Not because it isn’t an agreed good. But because Germany will lack the capacity.
 
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Vaporized

Banned
The Germans would never be able to complete General Plan Ost. Massive amounts of the population flee before their army is able to reach the Urals. There are many Soviet refugees but they are able to make it on the other side of the mountains in some organized manner. Many will simply become partisans perpetually funded and supported by the British and remnants of the Soviet government.

The deaths of about forty million people are planned, if the Germans manage to capture them all. Even after Germany declares victory over the Soviet Union and annexes the eastern territories there will still be much fighting for years after. I can see them wiping out almost all of the Jews. The death camp system will expand further east in the late 1940s and attempt to wipe out who they can.

German efforts to build new infrastructure eastward are going to be subject to frequent sabotage, slave revolts, and attacks on supply lines. Corruption is also very high, not to mention incompetence of directing it. They will never truly be able to take hold of the land. Poor colonist families forced to move out of Germany face the risk of famine, malnutrition, and death from these supplies being cut off in a region like the American West. The forces sent to occupy it won't be able to put down the partisans very well. Tens of thousands of the new colonists die before the efforts to get make any of begin to succeed. Hitler I feel dies sometime in the 1950s.

Economic stagflation will take hold in the rest of German occupied Europe with stories of the failing plans to colonize eastern Europe reaching the masses in the cities and the large death tolls from trying to put down resistance from partisans and terrorists. Terrorist attacks and assassinations in Germany itself remind of the struggle itself. Many begin to wonder why so much effort is being put on sending Germans there when stagflation and poverty are now hitting the German reich itself. Moderates will try to take control of the government. Like in the 1920s, struggles for power occur in the 1950s and 60s. A civil war likely does too as the Nazi party is purged from office by new moderates. Troops and resources needed to defend the eastern territories are withdrawn. Mass revolts and separatist movements rise up against them and they retreat. Western occupied nations take part in it also. Soviet forces reinvade old territories. Hundreds of thousands of German colonists are caught up in the popular uprisings, some massacred by vengeful populations. Even after partisans reclaim the former territories of their states they still meddling by the reunified elements of the Soviet Union who want to expand their own influences. I don't see the strength possible to create satellites like in the Iron Curtain. Russian support for their own survival will come at a price though. The Soviets will do what they can to make the German self-implosion as bloody as possible.

Perhaps 10 million more are killed in the Holocaust overall for a grand total of around 25 million wiped out through German genocide. Harsh authoritarian governments take over the states that German had to evacuate. Germany itself transforms into a military junto which is harsh and closed off. Since German occupation probably doesn't end fully until the 1970s, it'll take well into the next century to recover to a similar pre-war state. Germany remains an authoritarian state which does introduce some reforms and eventually by the end of the century opens relations with the West, but itself is still an economic shadow of its former self and what it could be.

Most of eastern Europe is similar with strong men type regimes or governments that are corrupt or inefficient. Only some of the democracies that existed before the conflict return because that is the form of management they had for generations prior. With more radical leaders than OTL, the Soviet Union probably survives as reformed authoritarian state due to the need to be hostile to evolve. Communism is gone, but nothing like the Russian Federation with democracy will have ever formed. In the twenty-first century the only democracies that exist in Europe are in the western portions. Eastern Europe is still under the control of militant groups and tyrannic regimes in many cases. Ethnic cleansing still happens as does disputes left over from the last decades of war. It will take more than a half century after German occupation ends for even glimpses of reform and democracy to return to eastern Europe.
 
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Sadly, I think it would never be recoverable. While i can see post-german states rising in eastern europe, the relations of them and pre-WW2 country would be similar to Modern-Day latin American countries and Pre-Columbian empires like Maya, Aztec, and Inca.(that is unrelated at all)
 
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I think it would never be recoverable. While i can see post-german states rising in eastern europe, the relations of them and pre-WW2 country would be similar to Modern-Day latin American countries and Pre-Columbian empires like Maya, Aztec, and Inca.
That's an exaggeration. Unless Nazi Germany manages to wipe out entire ethnicities (other than European Jews), the difference would not be to such an extent.

The differences would be huge, but it would be more along the lines of pre- and post-colonial Fiji. At worst (perhaps the Poles), the difference would be along the lines of the Incan Empire to parts of modern Peru. The culture still thrives, but it would be heavily changed, and expect large amounts of anti-German sentiment underlying the altered culture.
 
that "Slavic" major cities (Warsaw, Kiev, Moscow, Saint Peterburg/Leningrad, etc) be literally destroyed until no two stones stood together
In a scenario where the Third Reich somehow developed nukes, maybe the Nazis test a nuke or two using those cities as the testing sites?
 
I have a strong suspicion that if the Nazis obliterate the Slavic labor force in the 1940s and 1950s, labor shortages will be *huge* problem for them, and finding willing settlers and achieving the goals for high "Aryan/Nordic" birthrates will be impossible.

I think the results will be that by the 1950s, the Nazis will be forced to resort to hiring East Asian, South Asian, Middle Eastern, and North African labor gastarbeiter to exploit the occupied slavic areas.

The ironic consequence of Nazi anti-Slavic racism given free reign will be to reduce to the demographic weight of blonde, blue-eyed Europeans, and accelerate the proportion of darker haired, eyed and skinned non-Europeans even within Europe itself.
 
The Nazi kept changing the definition of what is a Slav throughout the war. As someone once told me, Nazi racial policy was an inconsistent philosophical mess.
They had a separate category for Cossacks and Ukrainians apparently, probably due to their shifting fortunes on the Ostfront.
 

CalBear

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In a scenario where the Third Reich somehow developed nukes, maybe the Nazis test a nuke or two using those cities as the testing sites?
Possibly. It would largely depend on production capacity (if you can only produce one a year, it is unlikely that one will be used in a demonstration).

You could also see, based on some of the "scientific experiments" conducted on prisoners in the camps, a combination of weapon test and survival test. See how close you could put personnel to a detonation and have them survive in the medium term. The U.S. conducted tests with active duty personnel conducting maneuvers as close as 900 meters from Ground Zero in 1951 during the Desert Rock Series, so the Reich putting test subjects starting at the base of the test tower/Ground Zero outward is hardly even a stretch.
 
Possibly. It would largely depend on production capacity (if you can only produce one a year, it is unlikely that one will be used in a demonstration).

You could also see, based on some of the "scientific experiments" conducted on prisoners in the camps, a combination of weapon test and survival test. See how close you could put personnel to a detonation and have them survive in the medium term. The U.S. conducted tests with active duty personnel conducting maneuvers as close as 900 meters from Ground Zero in 1951 during the Desert Rock Series, so the Reich putting test subjects starting at the base of the test tower/Ground Zero outward is hardly even a stretch.

The Nazis were already testing on people in the concentration camps. Using them as nuke testing materials is definitely going to happen.
 
But Generalplan Ost relies on Hitler being alive to implement it.
Given he had Parkinsons, who knows what else, and Theo Morell as a doctor, i suspects he'll be dead no later than 1952 in the case of a Nazi victory TL.
 

CalBear

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The Nazi kept changing the definition of what is a Slav throughout the war. As someone once told me, Nazi racial policy was an inconsistent philosophical mess.
They had a separate category for Cossacks and Ukrainians apparently, probably due to their shifting fortunes on the Ostfront.
If only it was that logical.

Much of the time the deciding factor was, incredibly, hair and eye color. Blond Hair/Blue Eyes i.e. the Nazi idealized "Aryan" could often be a matter of life and death.

The SS would routinely abduct "Aryan children", usually infants and toddlers, from their parents in General Government, send them back to the Reich, and have them adopted into "good SS families". Very few of these children were ever reunited with their Polish/Ukrainian/etc. families, most did not even know they were not German (and, in the ultimate irony, were raised in homes where they were taught to utterly despise Slavs/Jews/etc.).

There is even a newsreel, shot by the SS, that shows Himmler stopping while inspecting a transportation camp where Jews were being gathered for movement East to question one of the transportees. The man was apparently "Aryan" looking (the film is in B&W, so the eye color can not be see) and Himmler asked him if he was sure that his maternal grandmother was a Jew. Not knowing the stakes the man answered "Yes Sir, as far as I know." Himmler then walks away sadly shaking his head while talking to his guides. He was going to save the guy if he said his Grandma wasn't a Jew.

INSANE doesn't even begin to cover it.
 
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