Special Update 3: The State of Affairs in 1410
One hundred years before the death of Khukir Burilgi Emir Khan, the whole world over was dominated by the hoof of the Mongol horses, and following his death it is these same horsemen which dominate the world yet again, albeit in a new form. The Mongol Empire, once centrally ruled from the city of Qaraqorum in Mongolia, became rapidly dominated by Turcs as it disintegrated into steadily smaller Khanates, first with the collapse of the Golden Horde and then the steady struggles in Mesopotamia, the Tarim Basin, and China experienced by the Ilkhanate, the Khanate of Chagatai, and the Great Yuan respectively. The Ilkhanate, once reviled by its fellow post-Mongol states for how steadily assimilated with its Persian populace it became, was now only one of the lands ruled by an assimilated Mongol elite: Turkestan and Tartary became just as much Turcish as they were Mongol. This gradual change was finalized with the rise of Burilgi Khan, a Turco-Mongol (as this new elite culture would come to be called in academic studies of Central Asia) himself, a conqueror who reshaped the whole of the world in his image, just as Temujin Khan did before him.
To understand the world in 1410, we must first turn our focus to the empire of Burilgi Khan, now reeling in grief and joy at the murderous tyrant’s sudden death at the age of 80. Stretching from the Dniester to the Tarim, Burilgi singlehandedly conquered the largest empire in the world since the division of the Mongol state, controlling the whole of Central Asia and a significant portion of Russia. Not only that, but with his conquests of Iran and Transcaucasia, a series of states have bent the knee to his extensive empire, from the Turkic Muslim administered Georgian Horde (more properly referred to as the White Tatars) and the Persian Muslim administered Armenshah to the Emirate of Kandahar in the former Afghan territories of the Chagatai Khanate. At the center of this system of vassals and subjects is the Ilkhanate, the last remnant of the Mongol Empire in the Middle East. It is ruled by Ilkhan Uthman bin Abu Said, installed as the Ilkhan of Iran with the aid of Khukir Burilgi, and stretches over the whole of northern and eastern Iran. With the complete collapse of Ilkhan Ali’s rule as Burilgi poured into the Iranian Plateau, much of the southern and western territories of the Ilkhanate have broken away, and this instability reaches deep into the rump Ilkhanate as well.
While there is little of this apparent just yet, there is much to be displeased about in Iran. A series of deadly famines and outbreaks of the Pestilence have starved out the already declining population, and on top of that the vassalage to Burilgi, the conqueror who massacred thousands of Turcomen and Persians in Khurasan and Iran, is growing increasingly unpopular. Turcish mercenaries and wandering hordes who served under Burilgi have come to dominate the countryside of the Ilkhanate, and Ilkhan Uthman struggles to keep them under check, especially now that their benefactor has passed away. Furthermore, the staunch Sunnism of the Ilkhanate’s elite has become a rallying cry for enemies of the state. Shi’is and Zoroastrians (both of which were targeted by Burilgi’s forces as they conquered Iran) have begun a somewhat underground resistance movement against the Ilkhan, especially centered in the provinces of Arran and Mazandaran. The Ilkhanate is living on borrowed time.
The myriad states, both vassal and independent, of Iran
While the Ilkhanate struggles with religious and Turcish strife, the only other remnant of Temujin’s empire is in the process of collapse. The Great Yuan, once the head of the Mongol state that spanned the entire world, began to lose its southern provinces to the hands of the Black Vest Uprising, a half-religious half-political movement of ethnic Chinese Daoists against the primarily Buddhist Mongol ruling elite. Easily identifiable by the black silk vests that their leaders wear, the uprising began in the province of Guangdong and has been steadily pushing northwards, heralding a new Chinese empire, a new Chinese society, centered on the south for the first time in centuries. However, this uprising has been facing stark difficulties: Buddhists, aghast at the attacks on their religion that have become endemic among the Black Vest rebels, have en masse defended the Mongol state, and no region could be a better image of this than Tibet. While Yuan control and influence over Tibet began to wane when the Black Vests cut off access to the plateau in the late 1380s, the Yuan Bureau of Buddhist and Tibetan Affairs began to arm itself and defend the arid mountains from the Daoist rebels. As of 1410, although the influence of the Bureau has been steadily declining (especially among the more rural parts of Tibet), it is still the Yuan-aligned Lama and his Mongol and Tibetan soldiers that hold control over the plateau.
It is very likely that the Great Yuan would have completely lost control over northern China and perhaps even Manchuria if the Black Vest Uprising had been able to progress further than it did, but the intervention of the troops of Khukir Burilgi Emir Khan, sent at the orders of the Khan himself just before he died, has been a great benefit to the Yuan Emperor. It is very likely that the Great Yuan, in future, will be able to hold onto a significant amount of Chinese territory, though the zealous Black Vest rebels and their newly appointed rival Son of Heaven may have something to say about that. The new Guang dynasty has been established, and the course of history in China is defined by this new nationalistic Daoism, to the detriment of the Buddhists and Muslims that gained so much ground under the Yuan.
Beyond the Himalayas, India struggles into the 15th century as well. While left relatively untouched by the rapid expansion of Burilgi Khan, the Delhi Sultanate under the Tughlaq dynasty has been steadily overextending itself, first with a conquest of the Deccan plateau under Sultan Muhammad Tughlaq and then with a push into eastern India, to consolidate control in the north. The far western regions of India, dominated by nomadic Pashtuns and Baloches, agitates against the Sultan based out of Delhi, desiring further autonomy and displeased with both a series of poor harvests and the empowering of Indian Muslims at the expense of the more Persianized groups. This strife is made worse by outbreaks of the Pestilence in Delhi, Lahore, and throughout Bengal and the length of the Ganges. Sultan Abd Allah Tughlaq, the current leader of the great Islamic state in South Asia, is little but a figurehead, powerless compared to his grandiose predecessors, as military generals and displeased locals increasingly agitate for independence. The 15th century will not be a good one for the Sultanate of Delhi.
While the Islamic power of India may be struggling, it is its specific brand of the faith which has become so successful abroad. At the outset of the 14th century, southeast Asia was dominated by Hindu-Buddhist states, namely the expansive trade empire of Majapahit, based out of Java, while mainland southeast Asia was centered on primarily Theravada states in the Thai, Cham, and Viet countries. However, Muslim merchants became increasingly prominent, and the faith of the one God spread along the same trade routes that Hindu-Buddhism spread along in centuries past. India is the origin of the religions of southeast Asia, and while in the past that meant Hinduism and Buddhism, by the 14th and 15th centuries that meant Islam. The first Islamic state was the Sultanate of Kelang, centered on the titular city, quickly becoming a cultural center of both jurisprudential and Sufi learning in Malaya. The future of southeast Asia will be defined by the further spread of this faith… but this does not mean that the Hindu-Buddhist substratum will fall away or be hidden from view.
On the near opposite side of the world, the once greatest empire in the world struggles to hold onto life. The City of the World’s Desire is as beautiful as ever, filled with glorious looming architecture, divine rounded domes atop the world’s finest churches, and the statuary and art of the classic age. But the empire built around this city is struggling: it has almost completely lost control of the Balkans to the recently collapsed Serbian Empire, and almost completely lost control of Anatolia to the expansive Sultanate of Rum. As of 1410, they only control Constantinople, the lands just across the Dardanelles from the city, the city of Smyrna and its surroundings, the city of Athens and its surroundings, and the city of Thessaloniki and its surroundings. Much of its Aegean holdings have been snatched by the Venetians, including the Duchy of Morea which has been independent from the Romans for much of the 14th century. The new Basileos Julian II Palaiologos is contending with the uprising of the Alexionites against him in Thrace, aghast at the seeming disappearance of their supposed savior Basileos Alexios. As of 1410, much of Thrace is in the hands of these heretical rebels, and Julian is in near constant skirmishes with them. Both of the sons of the former Sultan of Rum Mahmoud Shah have their eyes turned to the Balkans, and as soon as either of them are able, they will use the instability of the Alexionites and the collapse of Serbia to their advantage.
To enter the Balkans in 1410 is to enter a world of constant churning warfare. Emperor Stefan Dushan the Mighty established an expansive Serbian Empire in the mid-14th century, conquering the Bulgarian state and defeating the Romans at almost every turn. But, with his death in 1363, the Tsardom of Serbia was handed to his son Stefan II, who had significant difficulties coping with the aftermath of his father’s quick expansion. This was not helped by the invasion of the independent forces of Burilgi in the later 14th century, with Tsar Stefan II succumbing to a heart attack in 1379, and the Serbian Empire completely collapsing in on itself. In its place were dozens of squabbling princedoms and tribal states, from the newly independent Bosnian state to the Turcish Christian Principality of Dobrudja on the Black Sea coast. Surprisingly enough, the only unifying force in any of the former Serbian Empire are the heretical Alexionites: they have expanded significantly in Thrace, defeating former Serbian generals and petty warlords. But, the Alexionite rebels are not the kind of rulers to rule a kingdom. It is unlikely that whatever hold they have on Thrace is going to stick in the upcoming century.
North of the Balkans, the powerhouses of eastern Europe are truly the Kingdom of Hungary and the Sejmate of Poland. Hungary has its eyes turned to the west: it is confident that its puppet-vojvodes in Wallachia and Moldavia will defend its eastern flanks from Turcish and Tatar trepidations. Instead, the new von Luxembourg king of Hungary, Peter, was interested in influencing the politics of the Holy Roman Empire, perhaps even to have himself elected as Emperor. Poland, meanwhile, was in the throes of a power struggle, with the victorious Krol Zdislaw Czapla increasingly coming to dominate the affairs of the noble’s Sejm. While as of 1410 the system of electoral noble-focused monarchy is still in place, the growing number of seemingly disappearing nobles and the role of Krol Zdislaw Czapla in foreign affairs waxing to a great extent, it seems likely that Poland will change in the future. As of the beginning of the 15th century, however, the Sejmate is in a constant struggle with the tribal state of Lithuania, the last bastion of true paganism in Europe, which has expanded rapidly into the collapsed Russian principalities, against the wishes of both Novgorod and Poland. Will the fate of Russia, and of eastern Europe be decided by a Catholic Krol, or by a pagan prince? The Old Gods of Lithuania, in their motionless gaunt carved images, seem uncaring, and the religious fate of Lithuania seems uncertain.
Western Europe has changed much, but at the same time, it has changed little. The Holy Roman Empire, with the King of Bohemia at its head currently, is still a squabbling mess of petty princes. France and England are still at war, with England currently holding a significant portion of southern France. Iberia is still on the cusp of the end of the Reconquista, with Castile and Portugal drawing up an alliance to fight both the Nasrid Sultanate of Granada and the Sultanate of Morocco. Italy’s affairs are defined by the mercantile states in the north, with Genoese, Venetian, and Milanese merchants acting as the middlemen for much of the Mediterranean, with the century as the last hurrah of the Jewish and Muslim domination of trade in the Mediterranean sea. With the end of the 14th century, the world begins to turn.