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Outside of Italian Libyans deciding they want independence from the homeland, it's unlikely to happen at this point ITTL. Libya is firmly Italian ethnically and the Italian economy likely depends significantly on the oil present in Libya to prosper. It's not something that Italy is going to be willing to abandon, outside of extreme circumstances like the total collapse of Italy as a functioning state. Even then, the best you can hope for is an independent Italian nation in Libya.
Huh well that's tough. The Americans are still going to have a field day training Nelson Mandela. Portugese have no chance of keeping Mozambique and Angola; in addition, all the African independence movement TTL might possibly be more bloodier than OTL. Both Italy and Germany will be pooling in money to the colonist governments in Africa, while US is going to take it a step further.
 
Is there any possible factors that can cause Italy to abandon Libya, besides for Indigenous Libyans seizing control by force?

Impossible. Lybia is just too close to Sicily and like InvaderX said, the population is firmly italian, even the lybians must have been italized to a point. Lybia at this point became a place like OTL French Guyana, a overseas province of a european nation.
 
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Nice TL! Will follow

I don't see any side actually "losing" the Cold War and collapsing, but rather getting used to it and eventually getting into some sort of quasi-Codominium. Both the US and Germany look very stable so far.
The Soviets probably looked much the same at this time.
 
Impossible. Lybia is just too close to Sicily and like InvaderX said, the population is firmly italian, even the lybians must have been italized to a point. Lybia at this point became a place like OTL French Guyana, a overseas province of a european nation.
So Italian Libya is more like Canada, with an European majority ruling over the minority indigenous, who mostly live in the rural parts.
 
Impossible. Lybia is just too close to Sicily and like InvaderX said, the population is firmly italian, even the lybians must have been italized to a point. Lybia at this point became a place like OTL French Guyana, a overseas province of a european nation.
Might the Italian birthrate plummet like IOTL while the Libyan Arab birthrate remains high, thus causing the Arabs to become the majority again over time?
 
Might the Italian birthrate plummet like IOTL while the Libyan Arab birthrate remains high, thus causing the Arabs to become the majority again over time?

Even if this happen, these arabs would be raised as a mix of arabic and italian culture. A example of that that my teacher used in class for example is the difference between MLK and the brazilian afrocentric movements, MLK was a afroamerican, but he was firmly american, his flag was the flag of the USA and so he wanted the afroamericans to have the same rights as the white americans in america. These new generations of lybians might want rights, but he will want their representation on the italian society as italians, not separatism.

Just a P.s. that I am not a citizen of the USA, so any error I said about MLK can be corrected and I will accept if proved wrong, I'm open minded.
 
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Might the Italian birthrate plummet like IOTL while the Libyan Arab birthrate remains high, thus causing the Arabs to become the majority again over time?
Depending on how many Italians there are compared to Arabs, maybe, but probably not. Libya's population in OTL 1960 was under 1.4 million, likely much lower at this TL's POD (I couldn't find population numbers for the 40s, but it's safe to assume that's the case, I think). If the Italians significantly outnumber the Arabs, then it would take many, many generations of stagnation of Italian birthrates and many, many generations of very high Arab birthrates to close that gap. The thing is, it's not all that likely that Arab birthrates remain high as Italians' go down, because the primary factor that leads to lower birth rates in the Western world is development. Libya ITTL is going to be a hell of a lot more developed than IOTL, which likely means correspondingly low birthrates for the small Arab population as well (unless some ideological factor leads them to keep their birthrates high).

And, like Gukpard said, the remaining Arab population is probably at least partly Italianized by this point ITTL. Many of them who were born after Italian colonization probably speak Italian as a first language, even (assuming the Italians decided to educate them at all).
 
What Arab population is in Libya several decades after the end of the war will probably be, at least in part, Italianized, as has been said above. High birthrates among the Arabs is something of an assumption, and one I don't necessarily agree with. For at least a fair amount of time the Italians are going to pursue a policy of allocating favorable land to Italian settlers, which is going to limit the economic prospects of rural Arabs, who would otherwise serve as an engine of population growth. The more marginal the land they're pushed onto is, the lower the birthrate is likely to be. There's also going to be a class of urban Arabs around Benghazi and Tripoli that will work in the Italian economy as laborers. This will probably the most Italianized of the Arab population, they might even take on Italian names and pick up Christianity over a sufficient period of time.
 
I have a feeling that Italy will experience a sequence of cataclysmic events in Italy, that'll weaken the Italian power in their colonies. Then, I believe the CIA will begin arming disenfranchised Arab and African people living in Libya and Italian East Africa. The Italians had issues even controlling Italian Somalia/Ethiopia even with chemical warfare and settlers, I got a feeling that the rebels will use their terrain to its fullest potential.
Perhaps Libya will be like a combination of OTL Lebanon where a significant part of their culture is influenced by their colonial country (France/Italy). I just got a feeling that the Italians will be forced out of Italy.
 
We always suspected the CIA to be invasive pests, but this?
Actually I'll backtrack my whole argument. Italian Libya will stay, but Italy is going to experience some crazy changes. Before ww2, Mussolini and Hitler barely got along, with Mussolini loathing Adolf. There's going to be a lot of conflict between Germany and Italy over the ownership of the colonies in Africa, as well as other political issues (German claim to Alpine region of Italy?).
 
Another topic to bring up, the Nazis crazy ideas. Have the Nazis actually gotten away with sweeping Generalplan Ost under the rug, or has it become common knowledge in the known world?
 
I have a feeling that Italy will experience a sequence of cataclysmic events in Italy, that'll weaken the Italian power in their colonies. Then, I believe the CIA will begin arming disenfranchised Arab and African people living in Libya and Italian East Africa. The Italians had issues even controlling Italian Somalia/Ethiopia even with chemical warfare and settlers, I got a feeling that the rebels will use their terrain to its fullest potential.
Perhaps Libya will be like a combination of OTL Lebanon where a significant part of their culture is influenced by their colonial country (France/Italy). I just got a feeling that the Italians will be forced out of Italy.
Barring some kind of massive ethnic cleansing/genocide (and I rather doubt the Americans, as morally bankrupt as the CIA can be, would be willing to support a regime that plans on expelling/exterminating the majority of the population, even if that population is of "the enemy." But hey, who knows, it's the CIA), even if the Arab minority were able to get independence for Libya, the new country will still have a heavy Italian majority. Might it end up in a similar situation to Israel?

Actually I'll backtrack my whole argument. Italian Libya will stay, but Italy is going to experience some crazy changes. Before ww2, Mussolini and Hitler barely got along, with Mussolini loathing Adolf. There's going to be a lot of conflict between Germany and Italy over the ownership of the colonies in Africa, as well as other political issues (German claim to Alpine region of Italy?).
Speaking of, what happened with South Tirol? Did Germany press for it back at some point after the war, or is it still under Italian control? What about the Germans in South Tirol, if it's Italian, are they still there, or did many of them choose to emigrate to the Reich? If South Tirol is German, what happens with the Italians living there? Perhaps some sort of population transfer occurred, Italians to Italy if ST is German, Germans to Germany if ST is Italian? Or something else? I'm really curious now.
 
... Speaking of, what happened with South Tirol? Did Germany press for it back at some point after the war, or is it still under Italian control? What about the Germans in South Tirol, if it's Italian, are they still there, or did many of them choose to emigrate to the Reich? If South Tirol is German, what happens with the Italians living there? Perhaps some sort of population transfer occurred, Italians to Italy if ST is German, Germans to Germany if ST is Italian? Or something else? I'm really curious now.
IOTL some South Tyrolians were settled in the annexed territories in the east and more were supposed to follow. We can expect that ITTL a majority of them will be among the German settlers of Generalplan Ost with only a token few remaining in the Alto Adige district.
 
I expect that for urban Arabs, and those with any aspirations, "Italianization" will be very strong. Conversion to Catholicism will be stressed, serious practicing Muslims will find that their path to education beyond high school or even elementary school is blocked. Needless to say Italian will be the language of government, commerce, and education and will replace Arabic except in the hinterlands over time becoming a language spoken in the desert, maybe in some homes, but one with no formal path to literacy. Unless the Italians embrace the racial thinking of the Nazis, which is unlikely, those Arabs who embrace Italian culture/values and are Catholic will see a fair measure of acceptance and opportunity. Of course those who hold to Islam etc, especially if they rebel will be crushed.
 
This is a more realistic Fatherland. I've got an idea for a more realistic Man in the High Castle, which is significantly harder.

PODs
1. Winston Churchill is hit by the car in 1931.
2. FDR is shot in 1933 (the book's PoD)
3. Mussolini suffers a head injury that causes him to not be stupid. Either that or Italy isn't stupid.

The Story
Garner becomes President and enacts a less strong New Deal, but it is enough to get him re-elected. However, the otl 1938 recession is much worse and he loses to Taft in 1940. Lord Halifax becomes PM and Dunkirk either doesn't happen or happens to a much lesser extent. Britain and Germany make peace in summer 1940. Mussolini doesn't have any misadventures in North Africa. In late 1940 or early 1941 Greece and associated islands are invaded by Germany and Italy. Operation Barbarossa happens earlier than OTL, leading to Leningrad being captured by Germans and Finns being captured in autumn 1941. Moscow falls in the first half of 1942 and Stalingrad falls in the second half of 1942. In late 42/early 43 Paulus and Manstein reach Baku. Iran joins the war and the Caucasus fall in early 1943. In mid 1943 Franco is convinced to join the war by Hitler and Gilbraltar is captured. By the end of the year, Cyprus and Malta both fall and the British forces in Egypt are basically stranded. Stalin dies after the Battle of Moscow and the Red Army retreat beyond the Urals, with some forces remaining behind to conduct a guerrilla war.

Meanwhile in Asia, the Japanese are doing their thing, but they role a 6 and destroy Saratoga, Lexington and Enterprise during Pearl Harbor. The Philippines fall but MacArthur is killed. The Dutch and Australians are pushed back to New Guinea while the Japanese cross the Indo-Burmese border. There is a mass Indian uprising which plunges Britain's war effort into chaos. The Nazis then seize their chance and invade Egypt with a very strong Africa Korps. Turkey and the Palestinians then join with the Axis Powers and the Suez Canal is seized in early 1944. The Balkans are also invaded and Tito is killed. Then the Arabs, Turks, Italians, Germans and Iranians invade India. The USN suffer several crushing defeats and withdraw to Hawaii to lick their wounds. By the end of 1945 India has completely fallen and Mountbatten has been captured. The Nazis offer to trade all their priosners captued in India for Ceylon and Halifax reluctantly agrees. Peace between the Allies and the Axis is finally signed in early 1946.

Germany enacts Generalplan Ost and rebuilds following the war, while Japan finally achieves victory in China when both Chiang and Mao are killed. An ultra-nationalist party that opposes both Axis and Allies rise to power in Australia in the early 50s and it severes ties with Britain. South Africa also turn on the UK and Africa is conquered in the 50s and 60s. Hitler dies in the early/mid 50s but before that he signs an alliance with Juan Peron, who is still in power. Bormann gets his boss to name him as the next Fuhrer and nobody opposes him because that would mean opposing Hitler's dying wish. In the 50s Himmler tries to rebel but is stopped and executed. The next Reichsfuhrer-SS is Sepp Dietrich.

In 1944 Taft is defeated by a generic Democrat. Said Democrat then loses in 1948 to Thomas Dewey. Dewey begins the Cold War and rebuilds the military. The Falkland, Sandwich and South Georgia Islands are taken by Argentina in the 50s. Bormann decides to help Peron build a fascist state in South America, and Uruguay is invaded in 1958. Fascists then seize control in Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, Peru and Ecuador. Colombia, Venezuela and Brazil are eventually defeated by 1965. Fascist guerrillas form in central America and Cuba becomes fascist in the early 60s, but Fidel Castro begins a rebellion. Dewey is succeeded by LBJ in 1956, but the Texan is shot by a fascist and replaced by JFK (his VP) who cracks down on domestic fascism and starts funding the Central American governments and re-establishes relations with the Aussies.

Werner von Braun is essentially given a blank check, which leads to the Germany launching the first satellite (1956) putting the first man in space (1959) and putting a man on the moon (1965). Bormann is diagnosed with terminal cancer in 1962 and dies 20 months later (1964). In the mid 60s there were two factions in Germany - the Interventionists led by Bormann, Goering and Goebbels, which consisted of the Wehrmacht, Foreign Ministry and Goebbels' apparatus and the Isolationists led by Dietrich and Heydrich which consisted of the SS, Gestapo, SD, Kripo and Abwehr. The Interventionists argued for dominating the Americas and Africa while the Isolationists argued for focusing on space and domestic issues.

At this point, the Jews are completely exterminated, the Slavs have been pushed into Central Asia and Siberia while Seyss-Inquart is overseeing various genocides and ethnic cleansing in Africa. At the very end of Bormann's life, the Panama Canal is secured, which leads to JFK losing against Reagan in 64. Bormann is succeeded by Goebbels who ends the position of Fuhrer, appointing Goering as President, while he became Chancellor. Reagan stations US troops in every Central American country apart from Mexico and warns Goebbels that further annexations will mean war with the United States. Heydrich seizes that opportunity to coup Goebbels claiming that he would destroy the Reich if left unhindered. The Chancellor and President are both executed, but their crucial allies Ribbentrop and Manstein (who is now a Reichsmarschall and Army Chief of Staff) invade Berlin (renamed Germania) and execute Heydrich, Dietrich and their key allies.

Following the brief reign of Reinhard Heydrich, the SS are massively purged and shrunk. The Police Forces are merged with the SS, which was put under the command of Otto Skorzeny, who defected during the Battle of Germania. Manstein becomes Chancellor with Ribbentrop as President and Rommel taking charge of the army. Manstein realises that more expansion would risk war with America and turns inward. With Ribbentrop, many of the more fanatical Nazis are purged and their ideology becomes closer to that of the German Empire. The country was stabilised and the African Purges end in 1969. Manstein dies in 1975 and has a massive state funeral before being succeeded by Werner Best.

Werner von Braun became a major political figure in Germany following the Mars Landings of 1976 and became President when Ribbentrop died in 1978. In America, Reagan served two terms before being succeeded by his VP, Alexander Haig, who also served two terms. The economy went into recession in the late 70s, so the Democrat George Wallace was elected in 1980. Wallace was economically and socially populist, but was more favourable to Germany than most other American politicians. Britain was in terminal decline, with radical politics, manifested by Minister of Defence Enoch Powell and Labour Party Leader Tony Benn, dominating. In 1982, Benn won the election and began building up the military. In response, Best began funding Ian Paisley, a fundamentalist Protestant Minister from Northern Ireland who was sympathetic to the Nazis, to form a paramilitary group. The Ulster National Army (UNA) was covertly supported by the RIC and some elements in the military, but opposed by the IRA and both Dublin and Westminster.

Best died peacefully in his sleep in 1983 at the age of 82. He was succeeded by Werner von Braun as Chancellor, with the young (by Nazi standards) Helmut Kohl becoming President. Braun and Wallace began the policy of detente and collaborated in the area of space, which had mixed popularity in America but was very popular in the Reich. Japan was becoming more and more opposed to Germany, a sentiment which only increased as America became a friend of Germany. Wallace was re-elected in 1984. The Cold War ended with the New York Accords in 1985, but the Second Cold War between America, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, South Africa, South America, Camada and Australia against Japan and her client states then began. The UNA succeeded in assassinating Tony Benn in 1987, which started the British Civil War. Fascist paramilitaries and the Army soon secured London and the rest of southern England, but their advance northward was stopped at the Battle of High Peak in 1988. In Wales, hundreds of thousands fled to the mountains and began a guerrilla war. The Fascists, with significant aid from the former Axis Powers broke through Socialist lines and captured their capital, York, in early 1989. Soon after the Welsh guerrillas ran out of supplies and surrendered. Northern Ireland was a vicious war zone until the Republic of Ireland invaded in late 1989. Edinburgh fell in spring 1990 and Scotland was pacified by 1992. German soldiers invaded the island of Ireland in July 1990 and Dublin fell in September. The last Irish forces surrendered in February 1990. The last Socialist forces surrendered at Wick on August 7th 1992, ending the British Civil War.

Britain and Ireland were unified under a fascist government, leaving America and Canada as the last democracies in the world. Japan collapsed into a civil war between the Army and the Navy following Emperor Hirohito's passing in January 1995 and the Axis intervened. German and Italian soldiers advanced east through India and Central Asia, while Australian soldiers and US Marines landed on New Guinea. The IJN suffered many losses to the Americans and Germans, while the ground forces steadily advanced. Calcutta was taken in July 1995, while the Burmese border was reached in December. The last IJA soldiers in western China surrendered in February 1996, while Burma fell a month later. Massive uprisings began in Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and the former Dutch East Indies. The rest of Southeast Asia fell by November. The last of the East Indies fell in November as well and the Philippines fell in January 1997. The IJA leadership became desperate after the fall of Hong Kong in March 1997 and sent a Nuclear Missile at Los Angeles. President Cheney was infuriated by this and nuked Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Seoul, Nagoya, Kyoto, Hiroshima, Fukoka, Niigata, Sendai and Sapporo.

Japan was devastated with 79% of the Japanese dying in the Nuclear Holocaust. The remaining government surrendered on April 12th 1997 and began evacuating their citizens. The government were allowed to keep northeast China, Korea and their Siberian territories but every thing else was ceded to Germany, Australia, Britain or America. The War ended with the Axis-Allied alliance reigning supreme, but with worrying effects as the nuclear radiation began drifting westwards.

List of Fuhrers of the Reich
Adolf Hitler 1934-1954
Martin Bormann 1954-1964

List of Chancellors of the Reich
Joseph Goebbels 1964-1965
Reinhard Heydrich 1965
Erich von Manstein 1965-1975
Werner Best 1975-1983
Werner von Braun 1983-

List of Presidents of the Reich
Hermann Goering 1964-1965
Sepp Dietrich 1965
Joachim Ribbentrop 1965-1978
Werner von Braun 1978-1983
Helmut Kohl 1983-

List of Presidents of America
John Garner (D) 1933-1941
Robert A. Taft (R) 1941-1945
Generic Democrat 1945-1949
Thomas Dewey (R) 1949-1957
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 1957-1962 (assassinated)
John F. Kennedy (D) 1962-1965
Ronald Reagan (R) 1965-1973
Alexander Haig (R) 1973-1981
George Wallace (D) 1981-1989
Bill Clinton (?) (D) 1989-1993
Dick Cheney (R) 1993-

Thoughts?
 
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