Chapter I: The Fall of Stalingrad, May- August 1942.
As the title clearly references it, it must be clear this won't just be a Nazi victory scenario but one that aims to plausibly achieve a world similar to the one depicted in arguably the most well known alternate history novel: Robert Harris's Fatherland, which I do not own or claim to own the rights to.

The PoDs are the same:
1. Heydrich survives Operation Anthropoid.
2. Case Blue is successful.
3. Germany learns Enigma has been compromised.

1. Hitler had Parkinson's disease so he will not be alive in 1964 and reach the age of 75 ITTL. The required treatments didn't exist yet.
2. A V-3 missile detonating over New York in 1946 is too soon for the Nazis to have such a long ranged weapon as in 1944 their V-2s had a range of 320 km (besides that, V-3 was the name given to an existing recoilless super gun located in northern France).
3. The Nazis getting the A-bomb in 1946 with a 1942 PoD is ASB, so not happening.
4. Fatherland doesn't get into detail about how the war is won, but TTL will.

Nazi victories are unusually hard to achieve because of the Nazi ideologically motivated reasons to make the wrong decisions. Their ideology caused them to hold the idiot ball. What this means is that I had to apply a lot of handwavium to make things go right for the Nazis and for the Allies to get stupid and in panic. I hope everyone can forgive me for that. Without handwavium we can't produce a Nazi victory and postulate what such a world would look like (a very, very bad world that we should be happy never came to be).

That said, it's time for Chapter I.

The Fatherland

Chapter I: The Fall of Stalingrad, May- August 1942.

Case Blue (Fall Blau in German) was the Wehrmacht’s codename for its plan for a 1942 strategic summer offensive to take place between June and November. The operation was a continuation of Operation Barbarossa, intended to knock the Soviet Union out of the war, and involved a two-pronged attack against the oil fields of Baku as well as an advance in the direction of Stalingrad along the Volga, to cover the flanks of the advance towards Baku. The operation was divided in two parts. First, the Germans would have to advance to the Volga to defend the flanks of the second phase, which would be the invasion toward the Caucasus. This would be a vital victory for the Germans. Not only was there oil, but the area north of the Caucasus also produced grain, cotton and heavy farm machinery, while the Caucasus region itself also produced coal, peat as well as nonferrous and rare metals like manganese, resources that were of immense importance to Hitler and his war effort.

The Germans unleashed their forces on June 28th 1942, with the Fourth Panzer Army commanded by Hermann Hoth starting its drive toward Voronezh. The Red Army withdrew chaotically, enabling a rapid German advance and restoring the Wehrmacht’s confidence. The Luftwaffe provided close air support and successfully contained the Red Air Force through air superiority operations and interdiction attacks against airfields and Soviet defences. The Luftwaffe sometimes acted as a spearhead, in some cases concentrating as many as a hundred aircraft on a single Soviet division. They destroyed 783 Soviet aircraft in 26 days for only 175 aircraft lost on the German side. By July 5th, forward elements of the Fourth Panzer Army had reached the river Don near Voronezh and became embroiled in the battle to capture the city. Stalin and the Soviet command still expected the main German thrust in the north against Moscow, and believed the Germans would turn north after Voronezh to threaten the capital. As a result, the Soviets rushed reinforcements into the town, to hold it at all costs and counterattacked the Germans’ northern flank in an effort to cut off the German spearheads.

Although the battle was a success, Hitler and Von Bock, commander of Army Group South, heatedly argued over the next steps in the operation, more so because of continued Soviet counterattacks that would tie down Hoth’s forces until July 13th. On July 7th Hitler fell ill with a severe migraine while his irritable bowel syndrome acted up again as well and he postponed all decision making for 48 hours. He summoned his quack of a physician Theo Morell who diagnosed Hitler with gastroenteritis and prescribed harmless antibiotics. To make the migraine go away, however, he gave Hitler opiates. During this time, Goebbels became aware that the Fourth Panzer Army and the Sixth Army were in a position to capture Stalingrad fairly easily. Recognizing an excellent propaganda opportunity for what it was, he telephoned Hitler, first to inquire about his health and to stress what a morale boost the capture of Stalin’s city would be. Hitler was usually ready to listen when it came to maintaining a high morale because he was aware that morale problems contributed to Germany’s defeat in World War I (though he could not openly admit this, since it conflicted with his almost religious faith in the “stab in the back” myth).

The Führer ultimately decided against splitting up Army Group South and sending the Fourth Panzer Army to assist in the Don crossing, where it wasn’t needed anyway. Instead Hoth and Von Paulus’s Sixth Army were to take Stalingrad and the necessary fuel was allocated to that operation. It had become a top priority for Hitler. The defending forces, particularly the 62nd and 64th Armies, were still forming and not nearly ready to stop the German onslaught. The attack commenced on July 17th and Red Army soldiers bravely fought in delaying action, most notably at Kotelnikovo and Kalach-na-Don where their resistance reached desperate levels. They fell on July 21st and July 23rd respectively. Stalin, acting as People’s Commissar of Defence, issued Order No. 227 in response to the threat to the city named after him and this order was summarized by one line: “not one step back.” On the 24th he ordered the weak 62nd and 64th Armies to counterattack to retake Kalach-na-Don and Kotelnikovo, but these counterattacks were met with a hail of bombs dropped by the Stukas of Luftflotte 4 (Air Fleet 4). The counterattack had failed miserably less than a day later.

On July 25th Hoth, with permission from Hitler, intercalated a 24 hour break to recuperate and make final preparations for the assault on Stalingrad. The Germans finally captured the city fairly intact on July 29th 1942. Stalin ordered the 62nd and 64th Armies to hold the city no matter the cost and – as a result of their fear of reprisals if they did abandon the city – a pocket of resistance continued to resist in a few city districts. They held out for four more days until August 2nd, when their positions were overrun and these two formations were annihilated. Their commander, Vasily Chuikov, was captured by the Germans and he featured in Goebbels’s bombastic newsreels. Hitler visited the city a few days later, which was covered extensively by newsreels as well, and by “popular decree” Stalingrad was renamed “Hitlerstadt” (Hitler City), adding insult to injury for Stalin. It became another city on a long list of Soviet cities that had fallen on the march to the Wehrmacht.

The German offensive continued. Germany’s logistical situation had improved markedly due to the fall of Stalingrad. The Germans now shifted from transporting most of their supplies by road and rail to sending supplies down the river Danube into the Black Sea and up the Don River all the way to Voronezh. The Germans wouldn’t have to worry about transhipments anymore. Moreover, this way they no longer had to worry about partisans harassing their logistics. Furthermore, the risk of naval or aerial attack was minimal, mainly because the Luftwaffe could use its air superiority to down any Red Air Force bombing raids and pummel the Black Sea Fleet if it ventured into open waters. Between Kalach-na-Don and Stalingrad, a distance of 80 kilometres there was a railway, albeit on Soviet gauge, and Army Group South’s commander Von Bock started to keep trains going up and down. That and control of all the airfields around Stalingrad, turned the city into a major supply base on the Volga and put Astrakhan within full supply support range.

The Sixth Army remained in Stalingrad, facing north-westward because that was the only place an attack could come from. The south was covered by the German offensive in that direction while from the east there were no roads and no railroads to support an army as far east as Orenburg, some 1.000 km away. That left the north as the only viable option for Soviet attempts to retake the city, something the Germans realized all too well. When Stalin woke up to the news that the city that bore his name had fallen to the Nazis, he was infuriated and demanded an immediate counteroffensive to retake it. His generals pleaded with him to let them attend to more important things, like attacking the flanks of the Fourth Panzer Army advancing down the Volga and divert the enemy’s attention away from the Caucasus oilfields. Stalin remained adamant in his position that recapturing Stalingrad and cutting the Volga would cut the Germans in the Caucasus off from resupply and force them to withdraw. He erroneously viewed the city as a linchpin.

The still forming Don Front under Lieutenant-General Konstantin Rokossovsky, who had withdrawn to Saratov to allow the Red Air Force to cover his supplies, was ordered to carry out a totally premature counterattack. It was known as Operation Uranus. The 1st Guards and the Fourth Tank Army spearheaded the ill-fated offensive, which commenced on August 10th, and they were met with a blizzard of bombs dropped by the Stuka dive bombers of the Fourth Air Fleet before they even made contact with the Sixth Army. Out of 800.000 men 170.000 men were killed, 280.000 were wounded and 2.500 tanks were lost and, by the time the offensive ended on September 8th, the Red Army was no closer to retaking Stalingrad (the Germans had suffered around 40.000 irrecoverable losses).

Bad news kept pouring in during the course of Stalin’s improvised attempt to retake the city named after him and he responded angrily whenever news reached him of units that had failed to reach their objectives. The stress and anger induced a stroke on August 25th, after which Stalin remained in a comatose state. A power vacuum in the Kremlin was the result and it essentially gave the Germans a free hand since no-one dared to give orders in Stalin’s place as long as there was a chance he’d survive. The boss didn’t appreciate underlings who had either the guts or the intelligence to take the initiative. In his paranoid way of thinking such cronies might well develop the courage to turn on him.
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Very nice. Always love to follow a realistic Axis conclusion to the Second World War.
Very fortunate events for the Germans but not exactly unrealistic. Uncle Willie used the POD before and I wondered what would have happened if Stalin had not spent the prime of the red army on counterattacks?
In my opinion, realistic version of Faterland would contain unoccupied Britain. Why? Because aside ASB, Sealion would be impossible.
In the Fatherland scenario, there is an aged Joe Stalin still in Russia and maybe an aged Mussolini in Italy. General Franco is still in Spain as of 1964.
3. The Nazis getting the A-bomb in 1946 with a 1942 PoD is ASB, so not happening.

Was this actually established somewhere in the book? Been a while since read it, I'll admit.

Minor nitpick BTW, in German the "von" part of a surname is spelled with a lowercase.

In the Fatherland scenario, there is an aged Joe Stalin still in Russia and maybe an aged Mussolini in Italy. General Franco is still in Spain as of 1964.

The "85-year-old Stalin" was only in the film, though.
Was this actually established somewhere in the book?

The narrator said something about a V-3 rocket exploding in the sky above New York, but didn't specify what this actually is. Maybe Wernher von Braun managed to invent the intercontinental missile?

The "85-year-old Stalin" was only in the film, though.

Churchill being an old man in exile was mentioned, though. So the defeat didn't seem to shorten his life.

Mussolini'd be ~80 yo. Possible, although both his parents died before their 60th birthday.
The narrator said something about a V-3 rocket exploding in the sky above New York, but didn't specify what this actually is. Maybe Wernher von Braun managed to invent the intercontinental missile?

Churchill being an old man in exile was mentioned, though. So the defeat didn't seem to shorten his life.

Mussolini'd be ~80 yo. Possible, although both his parents died before their 60th birthday.

An ordinary ICBM is far-fetched as it is, but a nuclear-tipped one even more so - would go with the former.

Yea, I remember Churchill being mentioned in the book being alive and well. The film-makers, on the other hand, apparently were a bit lazy and had him die in 1953 instead of Stalin.

Definitely possible for ol' Benito to be alive, can't comment any further.