This is leading in a different direction from the OP, but what if the U.S. arranged to get out of the Philippines earlier.
Some potential ideas:
1) Wilson committing to an independent Philippines within a defined (10 year) timeframe as his "15th Point"
2) The Harding Administration committing to independence for the Philippines within 10 years during the time of the Washington Treaty and Nine Power Treaty.
3) A carbon copy of OTL 1935's Tydings-McDuffie law for Filipino independence in 10 years.
These PoDs yield Filipino independence in 1928, 1929, 1932 or 1935 respectively.
I assume at the point when any of these timelines are established, the US gets the right to maintain bases by treaty for an additional period after independence, 5, 10 or 25 years or perpetual.
This means an independent Philippines well before WWII, and in the first two cases, before Japan pivots to aggression in Asia.
The Philippines will have some sort of military or constabulary built up for independence, and can have a great deal of say about their own armed forces and defense plans within a couple years after independence (if Filipinos choose to exercise initiative in this area).
If independence is scheduled for the 1930s, two developments of the decade, Japanese expansionism and the Great Depression, could add complexity to the situation and alter the independence timeline to one degree or another.
For example, the Depression could cause the U.S. to speed up the timeline a little, or neglect to make much use of Filipino naval bases once the Philippines are independent. (the latter could happen even if independence is achieved in 1928 or 1929).
Strategic concern about Japanese aggression could possibly slow down the independence timeline, or cause the U.S. to hold on to bases longer than they would have otherwise.
If the U.S. makes hasty decision to just to ditch the bases and commitments they imply during the depths of the Depression, what does Filipino foreign and military policy look like? How much do they build up their own Army and what can they afford.
If they perceive no U.S. commitment might they go with the tide and align with Japan like Thailand did in 1941?
Would that work out for them, or would there be disagreement on the degree of Filipino alliance or clientage that gets Japanese forces fighting in the archipelago in the 1930s?
Alternatively, if the US does retain its basing rights through the 1930s, how much will the Filipinos see it as making them safer, or more exposed to danger from Japanese-American friction?
An independent Philippines, even one leasing bases to the U.S. might be prone to ask the Americans to "Get serious or get out". Even in OTL, Quezon proposed Filipino neutralization, so we can't take it for granted that the Philippines would keep a grip on Uncle Sam's leg and be an ever loyal client.