Again with my CSA African colonies post, if they had the resources to, again unlikely early on when they win their independence Could the CSA get Argentina, Peru, and (unlikely) Brazil
What South American countries could the CSA get?
- Thread starter Jabe Shepherd
- Start date
Well of course they could conquer those countries if they had the resources to, the question is getting the resources. Since an economy as powerful as Brazil's is probably the best-case scenario for the CSA, the odds of the CSA even being able to conquer any South American country is pretty much Sealion odds.
The only fight that would be remotely fair for the CSA would be fighting the Dutch over Suriname, in which case they'd probably still get their ass beat since a nation of slavers (non-slavery CSA has no reason to try and conquer Suriname) invading a European colony to spread slavery won't go over well internationally. And the Dutch weren't exactly a pushover given they were pretty effective against another delusional banana republic in the area, Venezuela.
No to all.
By the time this speculative CSA would have become independent and an economic power (the 1880s being VERY generous), Argentina is exiting their period of civil wars and quickly organizing the country as OTL; a foreign invasion would only energize that. The Brazilian navy was very powerful (I've read even more powerful than the US navy at the time) and could quickly dispatch any CSA navy or invasion. Perú is in the Pacific, so just imagine the logistics involved; Spain tried (see the Chincha Islands conflict) and failed to assert any dominance. In fact, they managed to unite the Pacific nations against them for a while.
So you cannot discount a regional alliance between South American nations to resist the invasion. The only semi-plausible place might be Venezuela; but even then you'll only have an occupation of Caracas and perhaps Maracaibo for a short time in a extremely lucky, almost ASB scenario, before European nations and most probably Colombia and Brazil come to their aid. Not to mention guerrilla resistance.
Of course, taking the Guyanas would mean war with European powers.
It's not outside the question that the CSA could influence strongmen or fillibusters. But they would be competing with stronger, more developed interests, like the UK, France, and the US itself. And slavery wasn't popular at all in South America. Even in Brazil it was on its death throes.
By the time this speculative CSA would have become independent and an economic power (the 1880s being VERY generous), Argentina is exiting their period of civil wars and quickly organizing the country as OTL; a foreign invasion would only energize that. The Brazilian navy was very powerful (I've read even more powerful than the US navy at the time) and could quickly dispatch any CSA navy or invasion. Perú is in the Pacific, so just imagine the logistics involved; Spain tried (see the Chincha Islands conflict) and failed to assert any dominance. In fact, they managed to unite the Pacific nations against them for a while.
So you cannot discount a regional alliance between South American nations to resist the invasion. The only semi-plausible place might be Venezuela; but even then you'll only have an occupation of Caracas and perhaps Maracaibo for a short time in a extremely lucky, almost ASB scenario, before European nations and most probably Colombia and Brazil come to their aid. Not to mention guerrilla resistance.
Of course, taking the Guyanas would mean war with European powers.
It's not outside the question that the CSA could influence strongmen or fillibusters. But they would be competing with stronger, more developed interests, like the UK, France, and the US itself. And slavery wasn't popular at all in South America. Even in Brazil it was on its death throes.
As a whole the South American navies between 1860 and 1900 tended to be surprisingly large and modern. In 1879 the War of the Pacific between Chile and Peru involved torpedo boats, ironclads, very modern guns, and even a submarine.
The Southern slaveholding elites were interested in expanding their domains over the Amazon valley. It was perceived as a very real threat by the Brazilian government at the time, but I very much doubt it could happen, especially in a CSA scenario. So to the OP: no. The CSA would already have enough foreign policy challenges and threats to national security without getting embroiled in a costly war in South America.
Not sure about that. Brazil didn't mind gunboat diplomacy against Venezuela at all in OTL, and if a CSA invasion happened while the monarchy was still going on, Brazil doesn't feel American at all.
What's with these threads on the CSA turning into an imperial juggernaut that puts the OTL US to shame, despite a dysfunctional political system, the need for extensive internal policing, and a fraction of the population and resources? This seems to be really aggressively missing the point.
French and British Guiana through purchase and Dutch Guiana through purchase or conquest.
OK I will Answer:
Take Over Peru never, none, nada, zero possibility. The timeframe for a possible CSA foray for Peru is 1865-ish to 1879-ish durign this Period Peru have a surprising Strong Navy, With the Monitor Huascar that was commissioned in Janury 1866, one of the most powerful ships in the world until the introduction of the armored frigates almost a decade after, and the Ironclad Independencia, also commissioned in 1866. After 1879 all The southerner Pacific is in hand of the Chilean Navy, that was powerful enough to do Gunboat Diplomacy Against the USA itself, until 1890 (1885 Panama incident , better information in Spanish), plus is a supply nightmare maintain a ship force in the other side of the world without friendly ports, and with a hostile navy in home waters
Brazil, Brazil in this time period have a navy as powerful as the Chilean one as Does Argentine as they fell threatened by their Neighbors Chile and Brazil, so any foray of the CSA in south america have to fight Against England, France, Brazil, Argentine, Chile, Netherlands, and Maybe Peru, so their possibilities are nill, I doubt that they could even proyect force in Cuba
althisfan
Banned
South America- no. But Central America and the Caribbean- yes. As William Walker demonstrated Nicaragua could be conquered easily. The South had some of the best generals in the world (thanks ironically to West Point, which is in the USA; but we would assume the CSA would build their own school of equal caliber), along with a huge pool of veterans and a culture mixed between Manifest Destiny and white supremacy which would be motivating this expansion. One could see if the CSA had Arizona (the CSA territory of OTL, not the later USA territory) then the CSA may invade Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Yucatan, along with Cuba, Dominican Republic, and if Haiti caused problems by being a beacon of liberty encouraging slave revolts, then possibly an invasion there too. Imagine a CSA Nicaragua, whether incorporated as a white dominated apartheid state or a protectorate, the CSA could attempt a canal before or in competition to the French Panama Canal (whether the USA takes over construction per OTL or not). In OTL the Dominican Republic was so corrupt that they attempted to join the US under President Grant in exchange for money, even rigged an election to show the people supported it; while the US ended up not agreeing, we could see the CSA agreeing to it. The CSA could purchase St Bart from the Swedish (yes, the Swedish owned it from 1784 to 1878). We could see a "Great Game" in the Caribbean between the USA and CSA on grabbing spheres of influence, protectorates, and annexations; "American" expansion could be greater with 2 competing nation-states than in OTL with 1 more powerful nation.
althisfan
Banned
Blow up their own ship in one of the Dutch ports. Have a captain lose an ear because accused of piracy. A senator touring the area is assassinated and they don't allow the CSA to investigate on their own. They smuggle slaves out of the CSA to freedom. A citizen of the CSA gets arrested for spitting gum on the sidewalk and is caned as punishment. Prior to the Treaty of Versailles it didn't take much for a war to be "justified", it is a relatively modern concept that war isn't an acceptable way of deciding disputes; there's a reason why it had to actually be codified as international law. See: Hugo Grotius for his philosophy about war prior to the modern concept of legal and illegal wars; the Kellogg-Briand pact in 1928 is when war became illegal unless justified.
Hard to have a contest when one side is so much stronger. The USA will just stomp on the CSA if they want something (or just economically ruin it).
The CSA winning independence is a longshot. The CSA expanding into Central America afterwards is implausible. The CSA gaining Central American territory, and then conquering land in South America, is lunacy.
althisfan
Banned
So, William Walker conquering Nicaragua can happen, but the CSA doing it (or using Walker as a puppet) is implausible?
Nicaragua is part of North America. Definitions of South America, at most, extend to Panama.