The Graveyard Next Door: The Iranian Invasion of Afghanistan

Prologue

Mango Soup

Gone Fishin'
The Graveyard Next Door: The Iranian Invasion of Afghanistan

Prologue

320px-Flag_of_Afghanistan_%281992%E2%80%932001%29.svg.png

Flag of the United Islamic Front, known in the west as the Northern Alliance

The year 1998 was almost half over, and the decades of turmoil that plagued Afghanistan raged on. Of course, the players had changed since the first signs of destabilization appeared in the 1970's. From the south and west, the Islamist and fiercely Pashtun nationalist Taliban, under the rule and guidance of Mullah Mohammed Omar, raged throughout the country. In the northern, primarily Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara regions, the United Islamic Front held strong and steadfast, led by the equally charismatic Ahmad Shah Massoud.

However, as the weeks passed by, the Taliban slowly but steadily absorbed more and more Afghan cities, spreading their fundamentalist interpretation of Islam and heavy handed style of rule across the countryside. One heavily contested city, a site of bloodshed since the summer before, was the city of Mazar-e Sharif. A highly populous and strategically important location, the Taliban would fight tooth and nail to break the city. On August 8th, 1998, they would succeed.

Enraged at the longstanding resistance of the city and suspicious of the large population of Hazara, a predominately twelver Shiite ethnic group suspected of having ties to Iran, the Taliban would slaughter their way through the barely defended city, taking few prisoners and firing on everything that crossed their path. Of course, this war path would lead the Taliban and their allied militias to the Iranian consulate.

The Iranian consulate had botched their attempts at evacuation, a mistake that would prove fatal. Staffed now with 12 embassy members and a team of journalists, they had no choice but to wait and pray. What would occur that day would be fiercely disputed between the Taliban and the Iranian government, both providing their own description of the events that transpired:

  • The Iranian Description: A combined squad of Taliban and Pakistani Siaph-e-Shahaba entered the consulate at around 1:00 AFT. Much like the massacre of the Hazara on the streets, the 12 diplomats and 3 journalists were shot on sight, with the consulate then ransacked and lit ablaze. There were no survivors.

  • The Taliban Description: Members of the Siaph-e-Shahaba militia entered on their own accord the Iranian consulate. Disobeying orders from the Taliban to merely capture the building, the militia shot and killed the diplomats and journalists out of their own accord, before shortly after ransacking and setting fire to the consulate
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Aftermath of the attack on the Iranian consulate
While news of the consulates capture was swift, and in many ways, expected, the fate of the diplomats and the journalists would not be known until almost three weeks later. The Iranians, already enraged and demanding to know the status of their citizens, would move from anger to outright furor at the news of their untimely demise. Furthermore, news of the outright massacre of hundreds of Shia Hazara and Uzbeks would follow suit, leading to a mass amount of protests and public outcry from an outraged Iranian populace. The Taliban's murderous transgressions were further met with vengeful, vehement rhetoric from both political officials and the Revolutionary Guard, ranging from demands for reparations to the threat of war. These were met with public reactions ranging from indifference to mild statements of admission from the Taliban leadership, claiming that the diplomats were killed unintentionally and that the action was neither an act of hostility nor a declaration of war towards Iran.

However, Taliban actions spoke far louder than words, repeating the same massacre of Hazara in Bamiyan. Adding to this the report (though often false) of raids over the Iranian border, and tensions were set to become white hot. By November of 1998, nearly 90,000 troops were stationed along the Afghan border, and rhetoric was only becoming more venomous. Fearing a bloody conflict, the UN agreed to mediate talks between Iran and the Taliban. Would it be enough?


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So this timeline is going to be half focused on the war itself and half focused on Afghan political and economic developments in the aftermath. That said, the next immediate chapter will focus on/be from the point of view of the Iranian government and military. I always wanted to do a TL on this specific POD since I joined the board. Constructive criticism is always welcome
 
Interesting. Iran can put way more troops into the country than the US or USSR were ever willing to do. Should more than make the technological difference.
 
Very interesting POD. This could mean the effective partition of Afghanistan into an Iranian (NA) sphere and a Pakistani (Taliban) sphere by the end.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Before or after Pakistan enters the war.
OTL they told Iran in no uncertain terms that a direct attack on Afghanistan would mean war. And they had tested nuclear device that May (although they had been a nuclear power a decade and a half by then). Pakistan also told Iran that they would subject Iranian infrastructure to air and missile attack if war came.
Which is why Iran backed down in OTL. Pakistan surely can't be that engrossed in that Autumns cricket series to ignore all this.
 
Before or after Pakistan enters the war.
OTL they told Iran in no uncertain terms that a direct attack on Afghanistan would mean war. And they had tested nuclear device that May (although they had been a nuclear power a decade and a half by then). Pakistan also told Iran that they would subject Iranian infrastructure to air and missile attack if war came.
Which is why Iran backed down in OTL. Pakistan surely can't be that engrossed in that Autumns cricket series to ignore all this.
That assumes they want to save the Taliban from themselves.
 

Ak-84

Banned
They like Iranians (or any other country) influence in Afghanistan even less.
Pakistan's policy has always consistently been that it would oppose outside powers dominating in Afghanistan and oppose a strong unified Afghan Government. To achieve that, its faced down super powers.

Why would it back down against Iran?
 

kernals12

Banned
I hope the Iranians take out Bin Laden and that the war becomes long and unpopular enough for the Iranian people to revolt.
 

Mango Soup

Gone Fishin'
Who do the Americans side with?

As more and more news of Al Qaeda involvement in Afghanistan comes out, the US will end up reluctantly and very.....very minimally siding with Iran

Does 9/11 still happen?

Not specifically, however terror attacks in the west will play a big role in this timeline later on.

Before or after Pakistan enters the war.
OTL they told Iran in no uncertain terms that a direct attack on Afghanistan would mean war. And they had tested nuclear device that May (although they had been a nuclear power a decade and a half by then). Pakistan also told Iran that they would subject Iranian infrastructure to air and missile attack if war came.
Which is why Iran backed down in OTL. Pakistan surely can't be that engrossed in that Autumns cricket series to ignore all this.

Don't worry, they wont, just not as far as all out total war, mostly for problems of the Taliban's doing. It will get pretty messy however.

Anyways, the next chapter will be coming up soon. It will mostly detail the build up to conflict from the Iranian side.
 
At this time Al Qaeda doesn't have the 'attention' it was to later have.

My guess is the US would initially automatically side with anyone other than Iran.

WTC '93 and the 1998 embassy bombings have already put al-Qaeda firmly in US crosshairs by the outbreak of the Iran-Afghan War ITTL (the latter actually occurring only a day before the attack on the Iranian consulate).

Besides, he did say that terrorist attacks in the west would play a "major role." Perhaps the US is initially neutral with a very slightly pro-Taliban bent, but al-Qaeda goes and screws themselves and their backers over by launching a major attack on the US (maybe a successful Millennium plot, maybe an alternate 9/11 on a different day/with different targets) leading the US to start slightly leaning to Iran instead.
 
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Someone made a TL with this subject a year ago and someone made a lot of very interesting points criticizing that TL:

Based upon what? A detailed knowledge of the region and its dynamics? I doubt it, considering the very poor understanding displayed in the TL by the author.

To boot, in 1998 we are three years from 9/11. Pakistan is extremely aggressive in keeping everyone else out of Afghanistan. IRL the Pakistan government made clear to the Iranians that an assault of any description on Afghanistan would lead to war. That was one of the primary reasons why the Iranians stayed put. Iran is not a superpower like the USSR or USA that Pakistan would have to resort to covert means. Apparently in the TL, such a threat was not given, why?

Pertinent things the TL misses;

* Iran's geography. There a few roads in the East and N East of Iran capable of supporting an offensive and there were even less in 1998. There on the other hand are excellent roads in the Western Part of Pakistan which can support large units and formations, a legacy of the Soviet stay next door.

* The naval situation. Iran has access to narrow and closed waters. Pakistan to open waters. Every Iranian freighter has to pass rather close to the Pakistani coast anyway, the navigable channels are pretty narrow. Pakistan can place AShM missile batteries on the coast to make such movement impossible. The only realistic way for the Iranians to stop that threat is to try and occupy part of the Makran coast. Do you think thats a plausible senario. Of course Pakistan has submarines (9 of them) armed with Harpoon and Exocet AShM's which will make life even worse for tankers leaving Iran.

* As soon as the war starts, Pakistan's main targets will be the Iranian oil terminals which handle almost all. Presently they have three, Khurg Island, Levan Island and Sirri Island, and in 1998 only the first was fully developed. These places will see heavy air and missile attacks from PAF and PN assets, and leaving them undefended is not really an option, which will of course denude aircraft for offensive operations. And also incidentally cause a massive sudden increase in the price of crude oil, and BTW in the 1990's crude prices were vert low, as in what $12 a barrel?

* Iran was and at the tine especially was a net importer of food. One of Iran's biggest sources of wheat and rice in 1998? Pakistan. Pakistan is a net importer of oil,
but most of that was from S Arabia and UAE.


The nuclear dimension is also there.Historically since the fall of the Shah, Iran has preferred not to openly antagonize Pakistan, because they know that Pakistan would be able to hurt them much much more than Iran could in retaliation. All these things I mention above were known to the Iranian Government in 1998 and indeed were one of the reasons they stayed their hand. I am curious as to how the blue hell Iranians wished these things away.

Posted this here because this might be of use to the author.
 
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