The Graveyard Next Door: The Iranian Invasion of Afghanistan

The Buildup to war: Iran
The Buildup to War: Iran

iran-afg.jpg

Iranian military exercise near Zabol
As news of the massacres of Hazara, Tajik, and other minorities by the Taliban filtered into Iran, and anger tover the massacre at the Iranian consulate grew to a boiling point, public support for a war in Afghanistan festered despite memories of conflict with Iraq just a decade prior. Clerics preached against the Sunni Taliban's oppression and haphazard slaughter of both Iranian citizens and diplomats and their own homeland's populace, proclaiming their duty to save the regions Shiite ethnic groups and liberate the people of Afghanistan, being largely Persian in nature. The revolutionary guard echoed this strong and cutthroat sentiment, with officials as high as Yahya Rahim Safavi, chief commander of only one year, engaging in dangerously heated rhetoric and a war of words with the Taliban.

hqdefault.jpg

Yahya Rahim Safavi, Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Statements from the Ayatollah, while far more low key and statesman-like, were nonetheless stern and uncompromising, giving no indication of tensions cooling. President Mohammad Khatami would follow suit, keeping in form with the supreme leader and the former president. Internally, however, there was fierce debate between key political and military figures. All facets of the Iranian government knew the risks of armed conflict with the Taliban in Afghanistan, including the potential of a breakdown of relations and possible conflict with Pakistan, now a nuclear armed state. This fear was not to be understated, as Pakistan held many logistical advantages over Iran. Furthermore, more pacifist oriented officials argued, a prolonged conflict could render the public war weary and hand the Taliban power and legitimacy by mere attrition.

More militant officials argued that a war could be won relatively quickly. They believed Massoud and the Northern Alliance could be utilized in retaking much of the north, reclaiming Mazar and Samangan before pushing into the heart of Afghanistan, towards Bamyan. Iranian ground forces, backed by air strikes and shelling, would enter through Zaranj and Farah, engaging in a ground offensive eventually leading towards a push to Kandahar. This plan was criticized mainly due to a lack of infrastructure both inn Khorasan and on the Afghan side of the border, an issue that could incur a serious logistical nightmare.

Other options ranged between merely funding and arming the various militias of the United Islamic Front to active airstrikes and limited engagement, and as tensions continued to simmer, a course of action needed to be decided on sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, through out the first two weeks of December, various foreign officials varying from UN sponsored diplomats and foreign ministers from countries including Pakistan, Russia, India, and Uzbekistan among others, would find themselves in Tehran in a desperate attempt to keep the peace, the possibility of war now very high. Furthermore, a team of United Nations diplomats would be set to meet on September 22nd in New York, noted not only for the conflict but also for the amount of contact expected between Iranian and US diplomats, a rare occasion. However, by the time that Tuesday would come about, the tension would break, forcing Iran to act fast and the world to divert its attention.

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Writers note: So this was interesting timing to do an Iran TL
 
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Ak-84

Banned
A
Don't worry, they wont, just not as far as all out total war, mostly for problems of the Taliban's doing. It will get pretty messy, however.
That is ASBish frankly. Besides the aforementioned issues that I mentioned last year (quoted above and linked here) Pakistan historically threatened all-out war and that got the Iranians to stop.
How is that avoided in this TL?
 

Ak-84

Banned
The Buildup to War: Iran

iran-afg.jpg

Iranian military exercise near Zabol
As news of the massacres of Hazara, Tajik, and other minorities by the Taliban filtered into Iran, and anger tover the massacre at the Iranian consulate grew to a boiling point, public support for a war in Afghanistan festered despite memories of conflict with Iraq just a decade prior. Clerics preached against the Sunni Taliban's oppression and haphazard slaughter of both Iranian citizens and diplomats and their own homeland's populace, proclaiming their duty to save the regions Shiite ethnic groups and liberate the people of Afghanistan, being largely Persian in nature. The revolutionary guard echoed this strong and cutthroat sentiment, with officials as high as Yahya Rahim Safavi, chief commander of only one year, engaging in dangerously heated rhetoric and a war of words with the Taliban.

hqdefault.jpg

Yahya Rahim Safavi, Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Statements from the Ayatollah, while far more low key and statesman-like, were nonetheless stern and uncompromising, giving no indication of tensions cooling. President Mohammad Khatami would follow suit, keeping in form with the supreme leader and the former president. Internally, however, there was fierce debate between key political and military figures. All facets of the Iranian government knew the risks of armed conflict with the Taliban in Afghanistan, including the potential of a breakdown of relations and possible conflict with Pakistan, now a nuclear armed state. This fear was not to be understated, as Pakistan held many logistical advantages over Iran. Furthermore, more pacifist oriented officials argued, a prolonged conflict could render the public war weary and hand the Taliban power and legitimacy by mere attrition.

More militant officials argued that a war could be won relatively quickly. They believed Massoud and the Northern Alliance could be utilized in retaking much of the north, reclaiming Mazar and Samangan before pushing into the heart of Afghanistan, towards Bamyan. Iranian ground forces, backed by air strikes and shelling, would enter through Zaranj and Farah, engaging in a ground offensive eventually leading towards a push to Kandahar. This plan was criticized mainly due to a lack of infrastructure both inn Khorasan and on the Afghan side of the border, an issue that could incur a serious logistical nightmare.

Other options ranged between merely funding and arming the various militias of the United Islamic Front to active airstrikes and limited engagement, and as tensions continued to simmer, a course of action needed to be decided on sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, through out the first two weeks of December, various foreign officials varying from UN sponsored diplomats and foreign ministers from countries including Pakistan, Russia, India, and Uzbekistan among others, would find themselves in Tehran in a desperate attempt to keep the peace, the possibility of war now very high. Furthermore, a team of United Nations diplomats would be set to meet on September 22nd in New York, noted not only for the conflict but also for the amount of contact expected between Iranian and US diplomats, a rare occasion. However, by the time that Tuesday would come about, the tension would break, forcing Iran to act fast and the world to divert its attention.

----------------------------------------------------

Writers note: So this was interesting timing to do an Iran TL
Ah, fuck it. Lets do a war TL. Pakistan launches Operation Taimur Khan. Multiple strategic strikes on Iranian population centres and infrastructure. I say Tehran, Maashad and Isfgahan absorb multiple hits while places liken Tabri, Shiraz, Bandar Abbas get only one love tap each. Pakistan probably spares Qom for religious reasons.
 
......India will risk nuclear war in order to help Iran get an advantage in Afghanistan, at a time when both Pak and India are trying to improve relations?
Pakistan is so eager to fight a war the Taliban started that it's will to risk war, nuclear or conventional with India? Even if India doesn't posture, war with Iran cedes initiative in Kashmir to India.

Ah, fuck it. Lets do a war TL. Pakistan launches Operation Taimur Khan. Multiple strategic strikes on Iranian population centres and infrastructure. I say Tehran, Maashad and Isfgahan absorb multiple hits while places liken Tabri, Shiraz, Bandar Abbas get only one love tap each. Pakistan probably spares Qom for religious reasons.
Is the Pakistani military really so feeble that its only recourse is to open the war with a nuclear attack? The Pakistani army must be absolutely pathetic.
 

Ak-84

Banned
:idontcare:
The second was obviously in jest. And no, Pakistan can easily fight an Iran war, without any issues in Kashmir.
OTL, Pakistan had a Corps on the Iran border at Quetta, XII Corps. That’s two divisions, 33 and 41 plus a Cavalry Brigade, 90 tanks. The 33 was a heavy División, 120 tanks.
Moving to the Western front would be II Corps from Multan, with three divisions and about 600 tanks. Maybe V Corps (Karachi) XXXI Corps (Bahawalpur) can send an Armoured brigade (135 tanks). They have not yet even touched any formation in Kashmir or N Punjab.

In addition there is a Marine Brigade at Gwadar and the Pakistan Navy has coastal Battalions armed at the time with Silkworm missiles.
Plus we have Frontier Corps Balochistan, another 30,000 men, a force which is almost totally mechanized.

Air Forces would be F7 Fighter with Grifo Radars based out of Quetta, with a then secret BVR ability and the ROSE Mirage with FLIR for deep penetration night attack’s. F16 on standby.
 
WTC '93 and the 1998 embassy bombings have already put al-Qaeda firmly in US crosshairs by the outbreak of the Iran-Afghan War ITTL (the latter actually occurring only a day before the attack on the Iranian consulate).

Yeah I realised that after I posted so deleted but you got there first.
 
The Buildup to War: The Taliban
The Buildup to War: The Taliban

mulaomar.jpg

Mullah Mohammed Omar, Supreme Commander of the Taliban

The Taliban, now in control of nearly all major cities in Afghanistan, hardly felt perturbed by Iranian posturing. Yes, Iran had the numbers and the technology, but they had a lot going for them as well. For starters, their large area of control rendered them far more legitimate than they were even a year prior, with allies such as Pakistan now able and willing to recognize them in the international sphere as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. Pakistani and ISI officials had made their way into Kabul even before the situation with Iran had begun to develop. The Pakistani government themselves not having a great relationship with Iran, they felt confident that, in the event of war, Pakistan would support them directly and in full. Along with Pakistan, the Taliban received a sudden influx of recognition and support, both politically and monetarily, from the gulf states: namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and to a lesser extent, Qatar. Opposed to Iran, a long time regional rival, spreading its sphere of influence, supporting the new Emirate seemed a strategic and viable option for the wealthy gulf kingdoms. The three became the next few states to publicly recognize the new government.

Furthermore, the Taliban had experience in these circumstances. After all, Iran would not be the first nation to attempt such an invasion. The Soviet Union, then a full fledged superpower, had attempted to placate the region only a decade prior, failing in a humiliating manner that proved another nail in their collapse. They felt confident in their ability to fight a defensive war against the Iranians, no matter how long it would take.

As hostility with Iran only seemed to increase, Omar and many in the jirga felt it necessary to divert many of their men, including tens of thousands of Pashtun conscripts and 50 T-54's, back south towards areas reasonably seen as points for Iranian invasion. After all Iran's options for a ground campaign into Afghanistan were severely limited. Furthermore, Su-22s/24s in Kandahar were put on high alert. Some in the jirga felt these military maneuvers a waste of resources, believing that conflict between them and Iran would ultimately not occur and that Massoud and the UIF were far more important. These concerns fell on deaf ears, symbolizing the increasing shift of power towards the mullah himself, away from the consul. Many in the jirga would be partially correct, as immediately after this displacement of Taliban militants, a string of attacks from the Northern Alliance would follow. Nonetheless, the militants moved would play a huge impact in the coming weeks, ultimately proving a wise and sensible decision.

One major problem the Taliban would face, a problem that would expedite the eruption of conflict more than any other, was the inability to control the warlords and militias outside the Taliban proper (after all, if the Taliban was to be believed, it was the militant group Sipah-e Sahaba that was responsible for the slaughter at the Iranian consulate). While the Taliban held its power in the cities and along the roads, many regional areas were under the control of allied warlords or other Islamist groups working in mutual interest with the Taliban. These groups, often acting out of their own accord, would slaughter Shiites, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and anyone accused of working with or supporting Iran. Some would go as far as to lead raids into Iran proper (something that would play a major role in the coming weeks). This is not to excuse the Taliban, on the contrary, they often condoned or even supported these actions. However, this discrepancy between the Taliban and these groups would be a major source of impact during the build up to the conflict, and as the international community turned their gaze to the region, would be the force that ignites bloodshed.

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Taliban and affiliated militants in transit located approximately 50 km south of Herat

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One more post on build up after this, primarily about Pakistan but will also contain blurbs about some of the world power's reactions to this whole quagmire. Again, all comments and criticism is welcome, its about to get real messy real fast.
 
Snippet 1
I will also provide a snippet. I dont intend to give too much away with it but I will also include a spoiler so those who wish to continue blind can.

NBC Special Report
May 22nd, 1999

"Good morning, today worldwide oil prices have surpassed $80 dollars a barrel, the highest they have been since the energy crisis of the 1970's. This figure is only poised to skyrocket even higher, raising at an unprecedented rate. This drastic rise of oil prices can be directly accredited to the ongoing war in Afghanistan, after Iranian oil transport hubs and offshore oil fields faced heavy bombardment after a large scale air war over the Persian Gulf. As the region only becomes more and more unstable, world leaders are scrambling to find a solution to the conflict as economists and political analysts fear the worst..."
 
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