The Union Forever: A TL
- Thread starter Mac Gregor
- Start date
I agree, the IEF got reduced to more or less core territory, and even them, part of it is kept by force of arms, until the next crisis, where their strength will be less to fight against those that want to be independent, or merely want a less centralized and authoritarian regime. The Monarchy's association with the the Conservatives might mean that in the long term, reform may became associated with a republican form of government.
The question is how to they get out? The Soviets OTL was fairly good at keeping a brain drain from having. The conservatives most likely run something close to that playbook to keep it from happening.
Ryan
Donor
The Soviets weren't in the middle of a civil war with swathes of their land not under their control though.
True, but the Ukraine just fell to the conservatives. Only St. Petersbourg area and the mess in Central Asia, Caucasus, and Manchuria are outside their control. If OTL is anything to go by, the brain drain will only happen in St. Pete as its the only area that would be built up to have a massive brain drain, and that's before it falls. The Central Asian and Caucasus areas are going to be regainable and there will be something of a brain drain happening there but those areas are most likely not as but up as the Ukraine and Belarus are. Manchuria is just gone with it being replaced by some Techograt (However you spell it), puppet.
Not really. Areas they've recently occupied will still have spotty control, and those southern regions are far from easy to regain. Looking at OTL, the early USSR had all sorts of people escaping, the Warsaw Pact still had a serious issue with defections, as did China or Vietnam soon after the war. Heck, North Korea tries to hermit itself off and still leaks thousands each year.
At first yeah there is going to be the major risk of a brain drain, but as the Russians rebuild they will tighten border security to stop it, look at East Germany. Before the wall they had a major issue with a brain drain, but once the wall when up, very few got out. IIRC the border guards who got out generally shot their battle buddy just so they could make it after the wall when up.
That would be bad thing for Europe.
Conservative Russia will not be nice place for minorities. It seems that we will see several ethnic cleansings and pogdoms against Jews. Hopefully other nations are more willingful to take Jewish refugees than OTL nations before WW2.
And just can hope that Kuznetsov is sane enough and doesn't attack to Finland, Baltia and Poland. It would mean new Great War to Eurooe. But there will be surely very cold relationships between AES, Turin Pact and Russia.
It isn't the brain drain that is the biggest concern; with the Conservatives winning, the IEF's focus becomes Russia first. The border regions lost do not affect the IEF's projection and economy too much (Poland was the biggest loss, and the Baltic states do bottleneck the IEF into St. Petersburg, but I don't think they are a major contributor to the IEF's economy.) The loss of Riga, among other ports, might be a bigger loss.
The larger issue will be Russians that reside in the countries that have since left the IEF, which will create a problem rather similar to the OTL situation with Russian population outside of Russia proper. This problem will be exacerbated by the success of the Russian state (later the IEF), and how it did not experience multiple wars that killed tens of millions of its population and forced the early flight of thousands. This IEF has not experienced the turmoil that plagued Russia/the Soviet Union in OTL, and as such will likely have a larger population... Correspondingly, the Russian population in the various federal states will likely be larger. That could lead to a few issues.
Conservative sympathizers will end up fleeing into Russia, where they may be encouraged to settle in troublesome regions (Central Asia in particular; see the demographics of Kazakhstan at the end of the Soviet Union and compare). Reformers will likely flee to rebellious states, but they may find themselves pariahs; even if they supported inclusion, they will not be welcome in nation-states that have been established.
Once Russia gets its feet back under itself, I find it likely that they will begin encouraging Russians to emigrate from the west (along with any sympathizers), where they will be paid to settle in the east. I assume this for a few reasons.
There are three main sets of rebellious states: The European ones (Poland/Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia/Finland), the Central Asian rebellious states, and Manchuria. The former are under to protection of Germany, and the various power blocs would look down upon IEF attempts to recapture. The ones in Central Asia have not established anything more than preliminary government and, as Russia finishes its job in the Caucuses and moves further east, will likely be reintegrated. The necessity on shoring up the loyalty of those Central Asian states, along with the large Russian population already there, will see a relocation funneled eastward.
That leaves two problems: Manchuria and the European rebels. The latter are, again, under the protection of the AES (Germany); every other power bloc will likely affirm that. The former, however, has been usurped by a pariah government that has alienated nearly every single possible major ally and acts alone. By the time the IEF has settled problems in the west, the focus will turn further east against this one nation that has subverted its most valuable federal subject and which every other nation bloc would agree it has done. Neither the Commonwealth nor the Turin Pact nor the AES nor the LAR or any other will stop the IEF from taking action against the Technate.
The next war for the IEF won't be in the west; it will be in Manchuria. And it's likely that it will go nuclear.
The IEF against the Technates? I don't know how I feel about that. I honestly don't like either but then again a nuclear war would be a bad thing as well as I'm still somewhat lost as to how things didn't go nuclear in the last major war. But the question remains will the rest of the world join in against the Technate, or allow the two of them to bloody each other and join in when it suits them.
If I were the Conservatives, I'd offer to formally recognize Poland, Finland, and the Baltics for trade deals and naval basing rights (in the latter two). These are the best territories to let go because they give the Russians nothing but grief for little gain. All efforts should be made to hold on to the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Manchuria
They'd have the most international support; the Technate's subversion over the past few decades points to them expanding their power through any means. The only ally hat I remember is West Africa, which can do little against the IEF.
In a war against the technate, there is the chance that the core Russian territories would be threatened, which would prompt that eventual nuclear exchange. If the war instead bogs down in the Russian far east/Mongolia/etc, then that likely won't happen; until European Russia is threatened and the tides of Chinese soldiers seem endless
In the end, China is even more of a pariah than OTL and has no support outside of the governments it has usurped. It might find allies of convenience in Turkey and Persia, but they are ideologically imposed.
There's also the mater of how long Turkey and Persia can support rebel groups within the IEF proper without retaliation.
Excellent discussion y'all. It seems that most people think that the if the Conservatives win the war against the Reformers in the west they will continue and try and reconquer the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Manchuria. Remember though that the IEF has been at war for more than three years at this point. Trying to retake Manchuria would almost certainly mean war with China. Advancing into Central Asia or the Caucasus possibly leads to open hostilities with Persia and/or Turkey. Remember Persia and China are nuclear powers. Who thinks Russia would win these wars considering the damage they have already sustained and the amount of forces needed to occupy rebellious areas in the west?
Last edited:
Persia is a nuclear power, but the question is what kind of nuclear delivery systems does it have? Are they static missiles or road mobile missiles? What kind of range do they have?
The Conservatives maybe tired but I wouldn't rule out a play at retaking Kazakhstan. Mainly because that where their main space port should be. They are going to want that back. They may well write off the rest of Central Asia if Persia is guarding it, but Kazakhstan is going to be at the reach of the Persian abilities to project power. Its more likely you see a divided Kazakhstan.
Just my two cents
Can we get a map of the current situation on the ground regarding the Civil War?
Fair enough point on China; I'll give you that. Still, the entire world will continue to sit uneasy as China continues to expand its power with impunity, and with the strongest state that could oppose it neutered by those it has bordered.
I'll disagree on Persia, partly due to them not really being joined with any other bloc and the likely high population of Russians in Central Asia. The Conservatives are playing for as much power as possible by force of arms and by making the IEF a greater Russian state. If the demographic trends are similar to OTL, then Central Asia has the highest proportion of Russians out of any other region.
This especially applies to the northern border of Kazakhstan OTL; the majority of Russians lived in the north.
And, while Persia is a nuclear power, the IEF is a much larger one. Turkey isn't one of those, and has threatened IEF territorial integrity (if it wants to link up with Azerbaijan, then that will necessitate more IEF territory being shed).
With them supporting the rebellions in core IEF territories, the Persians and Turks have already created open hostilities. And what is left of the Orthodox Council will likely join the IEF against Turkey (they don't want the Turks ascendant and looking back towards their territory). The next target for Russia will be Central Asia and the Caucasus, as by not continuing actions against the rebellious states, they acknowledge them as legitimate.