TLIAPOT
- Thread starter Blair
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More cheap labor...of course, you won't be getting much in the way of subsidies. Hm...west german country bumpkin coming to the SOCIALIST UTOPIA of the east. There is an interesting plot for media ITL. Of course you can both play it straight(the rube gets enlightend and becomes the New Soviet Man) or subvert it (Its not all gold that glitters and criticism of "real socialism" i.e. "Real existierender Sozialismus")
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As expected the Chinese invasion of Formosa, and the subsequent American declaration of war against Mao's China, energized the electorate and generated a brief rally-around-the-flag effect for the Democrats. Worse yet for the Republicans, Majority Leader McCarthy proved wholly incapable of filling the shoes of his predecessors. While Wherry and Bricker struck fear into the congressional caucus during their respective tenures, Tailgunner Joe did little to inspire obedience or loyalty. Whispers also began circling about how McCarthy had "embellished" his wartime accomplishments. McCarthy's self-aggrandizement would play a major role in his eventual downfall. But as for the 54' elections themselves, the Republicans predictably lost their plurality. While the loss itself was not surprising, the winners of the vacated Republican seats were wholly unexpected. While half of the defeated Republicans were jettisoned by Democrats, the other half were unseated by third-party challengers. This left both major parties, once again, without a proper majority. It was widely expected that Democratic Leader Lester C. Hunt would form an informal coalition with the Conscience Party to form a majority as the Republicans had with the Dixiecrats in 52'. Unfortunately this was not to be. Just days after winning re-election to his Wyoming seat, Lester Hunt received an envelope containing information about his son. The unwritten message was clear, resign or Lester Jr. would be exposed as a homosexual. Mr. Hunt chose a third option and was found dead at his desk later that day with a rifle in his bloodstained hands. [1] The Governor of Wyoming, a loyal McCarthyite, named a Republican replacement for Hunt and the Republican-States' Rights coalition maintained their majority...
Footnote:
[1] McCarthy and his allies drove Hunt to suicide IOTL as well.
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Perfect! France and the United Kingdom can become the "Japans of Europe" TTL if they play their card rights! Financing the reconstruction TTL could conceivably be done through some kind of "compulsory savings". Keynes wanted to pay the war this way OTL. The labour movement may not like it, unless this is combined through some kind of "ownership" of the new facilities, primarily through shares. Call it "mass capitalism" It might also mean being somewhat ruthless in terms of overseas commitment and only keeping overseas territories that yield a positive return on investment.
When western Europe recovers economically to OTL levels and by the 1960s it will have. It'll be truly standing on its own two feet with a large industrial base able to meet the needs of a large defence sector. Defence integration will also spur the development of aerospace companies forward.
Regarding Red Italy, well, by now the revolutionary zeal of '48 it will be dead; Italy has not become a communist nation and by now, as OTL, the bulk of the communist memberships while continuing to support the PCI has gone to more important thing aka continue to rebuild their lifes and the nation.
The Free Territory of Trieste will be a complicated thing; getting back will be an enourmous PR coup for Togliatti (or any goverment in charge at the moment), expecially with relation with Jugoslavia being not good with the rest of the communist nation.
The Free Territory of Trieste will be a complicated thing; getting back will be an enourmous PR coup for Togliatti (or any goverment in charge at the moment), expecially with relation with Jugoslavia being not good with the rest of the communist nation.
The Christian Democrats held power in Italy from 1946-1981 if I recall correctly. I expect the Communists will replace the CD's ITTL. But it won't be a Communist country, it will continue to be a democracy. As for Trieste, I've had it stay independent ITTL. Britain will likely keep a base there between Red Italy and Tito's Yugoslavia.
It was...complicated, very complicated and involved a lot of dealing and weeling (and the fear of a communist takeover took his share...plus TBH, it's not that Italy has been a particulary left nation, even the communist were a little conservative for anyone else standard...except when the boss was involved but this is another story), negotiations and remember the Christian Democrats were more a 'first among peers' coalition leader than an hegemon
I expect the Communists will become the coalition leaders ITTL. Probably in coalition with the Socialist parties?
Count me in the "don't retcon Pepper and keep on with the TL" camp.
From looking at both the FDR and Truman pages for prospective Supreme Court candidates:
From looking at both the FDR and Truman pages for prospective Supreme Court candidates:
- Sam G. Bratton- considered by both Truman and FDR IOTL.
- Charles Fahy- Solicitor General during WWII. Might not be as likely since he left IOTL to help Eisenhower (at his request) in Germany so he could be tarred with that mess.
- Joseph Chappell Hutcheson, Jr- OTL was an a commission that recommended more Jewish refugees be allowed into Israel. Bonus of being both a southerner and a bipartisan choice (OTL was a chair of the Texas GOP in the 1950s).
- Sherman Minton- for seats that opened after 1946, since he had a heart attack in late 1945 that required three months of hospitalization.
- Robert J. Patterson- Truman OTL was planning to offer him the seat left open by Owen Roberts, but offered him the position of Secretary of War instead when that opened up. Also a bipartisan choice.
- Lewis B. Schwellenbach- wanted to be on the Supreme Court IOTL.
- Walter P. Stacy- southerner who FDR considered for the seat that eventually went to Hugo Black
- Fred Vinson- worked under Morgenthau as head of the Office of Economic Stabilization in the war.
And here i see problems; well it's that i don't see Togliatti as a long time coalition leader; one thing is stay at the opposition and keep the other left parties in line but another is calling the shot of the goverment with success and failure and trying to divide the various goverment appointment with other parties. He is at heart a stalinist autocrat and overall stalin fanboy, IMHO it not traslate very well in a national democratic goverment...at least not at level of the Democrazia Cristiana (that was more an ensemble of sub-parties).
Basically, while unity in the left was very important on the opposition, so important that even the OTL 1956 Hungarian revolt was not enough to broke it (but come very close), a continued goverment coalition it's a too big stress.
Maybe he retires when Bulganin come to power and a more competent leader takes over?
Do you live somewhere other than the United States? Users outside the US sometimes can't images. I don't know why. The biggest party is the Dixiecrats (State's Rights Party) with 19 seats in the Senate. The next largest is the Conscience Party with 12 seats. These are the only two third-parties worth mentioning ATM. More third-parties may appear later.For some reason i can't see any of the pictures you posted in this treatCould you please tell me what the biggest third parties are?
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The problem is that Kefauver already had a sizable base of support within Tennessee based on his opposition to machine politics, and was heartily favored by the labor unions within the State at the time given his opposition to Taft-Hartley. Throwing Gore into the mix might have muddled the field but he unfortunately voted for Taft-Hartley, both initially and for the override, and I can't think of any real reason for him to change his mind on either account, which means he would essentially be running the same kind of campaign as Kefauver but without labor backing (hostility actually) or the tacit backing of a machine (which he may well have rejected anyway). It doesn't really seem that feasible, and it could well have injured any bid he would make for the Senate later.
The first problem here is that, based off what I initially read some time ago (I wasn't able to respond then), was that the States' Righters you said were to be present but revolt after the pick of Claude Pepper. One of Kefauver's plans which I meant to incorporate into one of my own (in developmental hell) Timelines was to pass a resolution that would have stripped the voting rights from any delegation whose State Party endorsed policies which discriminated against voters on the basis of race; the problem with this resolution was how far-reaching it was (all the former Confederate states minus Tennessee [of course] and Florida [somehow]). Those states were never going to vote for Kefauver, and in reducing the number of voting delegates he would have gotten markedly closer to securing a majority for himself. The resolution actually would have very well passed had Stevenson himself not intervened and thrown himself against it; with Stevenson gone though or even Truman not being able to throw himself into the mix there isn't much of a case to be made for against it (Humphrey and Pepper both supported the resolution), which would mean the grand majority of the Southern delegations would have left early and in disgust at the 'undemocratic' nature of the Convention.
Now I don't have the exact voting figures on hand, by books on the 1952 Conventions are in storage somewhere while the house is undergoing renovations, but Kefauver in OTL already had about (360) votes to depend upon. Assuming every Russell supporter was in the South and thrown out the number to reach majority would be (469), and it'd almost certainly be lower still since I can remember Mississippi, Arkansas and South Carolina at least were for Stevenson rather than Russell. That'd mean no more than a (100) delegate cushion for the Anti-Kefauver forces to find a candidate palatable to all sides, and even assuming Claude Pepper were to change his rhetoric on foreign affairs and other matters, I can't see him holding back enough defections that Kefauver wouldn't be over the hump by the end of the roll call.
This also does raise the question though of how Claude Pepper was able to survive his re-election bid in 1950, especially with the Smathers having even more ammo to lob at him in regards to the Soviet Union, and even less time for Pepper to backtrack from his concept of amicable relations with the Soviet Union; if anything I would suspect that Pepper would get Blanched. Ignoring that for a moment, picking Pepper would also weaken any argument the Democratic ticket could make in regards to the expansion of Communism in the West given Republicans could simply point to Pepper's record and say "well he was on board with Taft," or at least construe it as such. At best Pepper would mollify Progressives like Wallace, but so would Murray so..........I'm not really sure what benefits he would bring.
In the interests of balancing the ticket in terms of experience and region, I'd instead suggest Earle Clements. While a Liberal himself he is from the Upper South (Kentucky) and would have valuable insight as an executive given his tenure as Governor, and would certainly mollify those few who would have normally supported Alben Barkley (a stubborn bunch at the convention).
Now I don't have the exact voting figures on hand, by books on the 1952 Conventions are in storage somewhere while the house is undergoing renovations, but Kefauver in OTL already had about (360) votes to depend upon. Assuming every Russell supporter was in the South and thrown out the number to reach majority would be (469), and it'd almost certainly be lower still since I can remember Mississippi, Arkansas and South Carolina at least were for Stevenson rather than Russell. That'd mean no more than a (100) delegate cushion for the Anti-Kefauver forces to find a candidate palatable to all sides, and even assuming Claude Pepper were to change his rhetoric on foreign affairs and other matters, I can't see him holding back enough defections that Kefauver wouldn't be over the hump by the end of the roll call.
This also does raise the question though of how Claude Pepper was able to survive his re-election bid in 1950, especially with the Smathers having even more ammo to lob at him in regards to the Soviet Union, and even less time for Pepper to backtrack from his concept of amicable relations with the Soviet Union; if anything I would suspect that Pepper would get Blanched. Ignoring that for a moment, picking Pepper would also weaken any argument the Democratic ticket could make in regards to the expansion of Communism in the West given Republicans could simply point to Pepper's record and say "well he was on board with Taft," or at least construe it as such. At best Pepper would mollify Progressives like Wallace, but so would Murray so..........I'm not really sure what benefits he would bring.
In the interests of balancing the ticket in terms of experience and region, I'd instead suggest Earle Clements. While a Liberal himself he is from the Upper South (Kentucky) and would have valuable insight as an executive given his tenure as Governor, and would certainly mollify those few who would have normally supported Alben Barkley (a stubborn bunch at the convention).
Noted.
To be honest, it would be right from the start; even when they were running back in '48 with Thurmond they were technically known as the States' Rights Democratic Party, and Dixiecrat itself is merely the art of mashing up Dixie with Democrat. It's somewhat akin to listing Democratic candidates as Democrat in the Wikibox where, while not exactly wrong, is rather informal.
I've actually tried changing the States' Rights name in the Wikibox for the '48 election several times to the more formal moniker, but others keep flipping it back after some time.
I've actually tried changing the States' Rights name in the Wikibox for the '48 election several times to the more formal moniker, but others keep flipping it back after some time.
Noted.
What you have proposed in the ticket of William Douglas and Henry Schricker I actually like quite a lot, and to be fair I do see Douglas as a stronger nominee and candidate when compared to say Harriman who wouldn't yet have any real experience in government beyond as an ambassador. With the incumbent not seeking the nomination either (willingly or otherwise) there is even less reason to suspect that Douglas would be averse to the risk of seeking a nomination that may be essentially waiting for him. The only problem of course is that he may well follow the example of Charles Evan Hughes and resign from the Court once he receives the Democratic nomination, meaning that the Republican Senate would get to confirm an additional Justice.
Wallace would have probably performed a bit worse as well given the international situation, but an argument could be made either way.
Wallace would have probably performed a bit worse as well given the international situation, but an argument could be made either way.
To be honest I thought you were just using a universal swing; if you are using different measures for different states than I can understand how that might be a bit more than its worth.
And accuracy is overrated, especially when delving into unknown territory.
And accuracy is overrated, especially when delving into unknown territory.
He will retire willingly only when Death will come for him; it will be more a nasty interparty battle that will see him gone, one that the PCI it's not assured to survive as we know it
