TLIAPOT
- Thread starter Blair
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I'm really sad that you got rid of Pepper hes my favorite politician of Florida.Honestly no, I don't see them vote Democratic after Morgenthau ever again. Most of the Germans and their ancestors in the region have arrived after 1845, it means that there's still a whole lot 1st generations immigrants alive, but also most have grown up either speaking German or having relatives speaking the language. Their churches are connected to the homeland, which mean we likely have seen charities to help their relative in Europe, many still have or had contact with their families, and they likely have received letter begging for aid and tales of dead or disappeared (often emigrated) relatives (remember that West Germany have lost 1/3 of its population, and the American Zone have likely been the centre of this loss with half having died or disappeared). Their young men have served in the occupation and bring horror stories, many have likely married German women, often just to help them escape the hell hole West Germany have become. These people may not vote republican, but it snow in Hell before they vote democratic again. It's more likely that we see a regional party develop (it could be called Farmers party, Farmer and Workers Party or maybe just Labor) in opposition to the Republicans.
In fact I think it could be a interesting aspect of this timeline, that we maybe see the permanent development of regional American parties and we likely see a weakening of the American presidency, especially after a unelected president have run his own private genocide.
It could go both ways, but looking at South African demography, I have a favoured theory. In the Cape Province and Natal, Coloured and Indian (Asiatics) was the second biggest in minority in each. While Whites was the 3rd biggest with a few 300000 less people in Cape and some 40000 in Natal. Here Whites become the very clearly the largest minority group. But in both provinces their primary languages (Afrikaans in Cape and English in Natal) become threaten by the influx of third European language. But the Coloured in Cape was mainly Afrikaans speakers and the Indians in Natal used English as their main public language. So I think that with White dominance secured by the German immigrants, we will see full citizenship and voting rights be given to Coloured and Indians. That expand the ruling minority of South Africa with 10% (lower than historical thanks to the higher population) and potential more (as more Asian immigration will be allowed and intermarriage will become legal again). So we will fundamental get a ruling minority by 1990 which make up 33-40% of the population with Cape likely a "Afrikaans" majority. Also we will likely also see some Black with Afrikaans or English as first language will be seen both by the general public and legal as Coloured
The result will be that Blacks can be easier be kept down, but it will also result in South African being much richer, and some of that will likely drip down to the Black population, and with intermarriage being legal plus assimilation possible, we will likely see a increasing Black urban class (mostly workers but also professionals) plus farm workers getting full citizenship and voting rights. It's important to remember that discrimination of Black in Apartheid's ideology wasn't based on them being Black, but because they belonged to Bantu nations, which was a primitive proto-nation, which needed to be uprised to the same civilisation "level" as the Afrikaans and British nations. Here the Afrikaans have already recognised non-Whites (the Coloured) as part of their nation. As such I could see them expand this, especially if the Black person can find a White or Coloured ancestor (which I think most will be able to find, especially among the Zulu and Xhosa)
A few extra thought about Denmark I think Bornholm will become a independent province (likely as unified Province-County, which is likely how Faroe will be set up too). Also I looked up Danish demography. When I looked at that I got some interesting conclusion. A poorer Europe will mean a poorer Denmark, a poorer Denmark will mean that Denmark upkeep their high post war population growth longer (3 children per woman in 1944-46 falling to 2,5 child by 1950 and staying that high until 1968, after which it fell to 2,1 by 1973 and then we saw a collapse down to 1,4 beginning with the oil crisis lasting until the mid 80ties where it began a slow rise, where it hit 1,9 by 2008 and fell again with new crisis to 1,7 and began a new slow rise ). My conclusion are that with the greater chaos in Europe, we will see the high birth rate after the War last longer maybe even rising higher (3,5 is not unrealistic), while it only fall down to 2,5 between 1955-60 and stay there longer. Without the degree of prosperity we saw in ours 60ties we will likely see the birth rate stay high, also with the German population surplus of guest workers, Denmark are also more likely to import more Germans workers to the post-War industrialisation rather than rural Danes. So the Danish population stay much more rural, while most cities and towns get large German minorities. The result is a higher birth rate. So my guess is that Danish population (including Holstein will develop this way) 6 million 1945, it reach 7 million by 1960, 8 million a decade later by 1970, after it reach 9 million by 1980 it begins to slow down hitting 10 million by 1995 and slow even more down after that (of course the development after 1980 depend on a potential oil crisis, because Denmark have access to North Sea oil, we have high growth after the technology to extract it have been developed and the prices have been high enough that it was economical).
Around a fifth of the population is likely to German speakers while around 5% will speak North Frisian (this is much more than historical, but I think we will see great damming project of the Wadden Sea where they live).
I also see some interesting developments in Sweden and Finland, Sweden got a a several hundred thousand Finns after the War (50ties and 60ties) as guest workers, around half was Swedish speaking Finns. Here Sweden likely get around half a million German refugees, and continued immigration later. This mean less need for Finnish workers, but also less need for rural Swedes to move to the big cities. My guess Is that Swedish population will end up something like this 8 million people by 1960, 10 million by 1975, 12 million by 1995.
At the same time Stalin will likely demand less reparation of the Finns, if he can get Norway, Sweden and Denmark join into a union with them (as it would make Denmark and Norway neutrals). The result are less impoverished Finns, while Sweden at the same time have less need for Workers. The result is a higher Finnish population. Likely something like this 5 million by 1960 and 6 million by 1995. At the same time the Swedish speaking group will likely stay much bigger I think around 8% of the population by 1995 (rather than 6%). Vaasa (Swedish Vasa) will likely have a Swedish speaking majority, making the region Ostrobothnia even more the mainland stronghold of the Swedish speakers (today they're only half the population because of Vaasa)
A few other thoughts about the German diaspora. The vast amount of Germans exiles in USSR will likely survive, we will likely see a male surplus (women will likely not be send as "guest workers" to USSR). At the same time USSR have a large female surplus (mostly Russians, Belarusian and Ukrainian). So we will likely see them ending up marrying locals. The children was usual counted as German historical and the German group made up around 1% (3 million) of the USSR, with Northern Kazakhstan and western Siberia (the fertile area on the border of Kazakhstan) being the main German population centres (with Germans being 6,5% of the population in Kazakhstan at it highest in 1970). A large amount of the Germans historical didn't speak German any more by 1990 (likely half), they was in general discriminated against. Again Kazakhstan and Siberia was the stronghold of the German language (there's still 400000 speakers in Siberia, mostly descendent not of people exiled there, but mostly German farmers settling in the area under the Czars, and they have mostly be left alone since (it's hard even for USSR to see impoverish Siberian farmers as class enemies)). There was talk about about creating a German SSR in Kazakhstan in the 80ties. Now with some context given. Germans will likely be a much bigger group in your story. I'm guessing we will see between 9-12 million people be identified as Germans by 1990 (I keep using 1990, because the development of USSR will clearly be different from historical, so I need to see how USSR develop after 1990 to make demographic guesses after that). Western USSR will likely be home to many more of them than historical. But we will likely also see a much higher population of them in Kazakhstan and Siberia (likely double, which is till only something like 2 millions in Kazakhstan and 1 million in Siberia). I also think that while they're discriminated against, they will still embrace the ideal of a Soviet people. So while they're a separate group from Russians, they will de facto count as Russian when we talk about keeping USSR together.
Agreed. I'll make changes to the boxes accordingly.
Agreed.
Agreed. I imagine an equivalent to Minnesota Farmer–Labor Party from the Great Recession Era will spring up. But this time on huge scale and stocked with former Republican Midwesterners who refused to join the Democrats when they left the GOP. I favor the name "Grange Party" or just "The Grange" as a revival of the old Farmers Movement.
Thank you for the analysis. I will implement these ideas.
Yeah, and they remember how that went for them. But there's probably some actual true believers.
Yes which is why I could see Stalin do it, West Germany is clearly not the legitimate Germany, anyone who have cooperated with the English or American will be seen as a traitor, which mean there's a lot of OTL politicians who will be finished, because they begin to cooperate with the Americans before they discover how ugly it will get. Kurt Schumacher is likely one of the politicians who will do well, as he has balls to give them the finger, of course there's risk that he will be imprisoned by the British and if that happens, he will likely die because of his bad health. Adenauer on the other hand have ended up in the Netherlands, he will likely stay mayor of Cologne until his death.
That assumes anyone who gets involved with them isn't just outright lynched by the populace.
Commie on 1,500 calories or a democrat on crumbs is more then just words, after all, and given all the scheisse that's happened....
I think that's a very interesting idea, I like the name, but remember that this party, while dominated by farmers, will likely try to reach out to urban and non-farmers.
On the matter of German-Americans, I'm not so convinced. Plenty of people aren't first-generation and many of them aren't even second-generation; there have been ethnic Germans in the United States for a long time. For such people, Germany is just another faraway country. These people's country—the United States—has just had an enormous war against Germany, and that sort of thing is good at deepening tribalism, inspiring hatred and forcing people to make a choice between separate identities; if Germans and Americans are busy killing hundreds of thousands of each other, i.e. war, it's more than a little difficult to feel German and American at the same time. (That doesn't just apply when it's two competing nationalities; it can also apply when it's a nationality versus an ideology, such as the reaction of some British fascists to the outbreak of war between the United Kingdom and National Socialist Germany.) It's generally popular among certain groups to uphold that the descendants of immigrants will never truly belong to the host country as much as the people who've been there for longer, but that doesn't make it true. If that were true, Americans of British heritage would feel a powerful emotional connection to the United Kingdom—which most people would agree is ridiculous, but somehow when it comes to non-British people, 'ethnics'/'immigrants', it apparently isn't the same.
TL;DR: I don't think Americans of German heritage are a monolithic tribe who will decide their votes in American democracy purely based on what happens to a country on the other side of the world.
TL;DR: I don't think Americans of German heritage are a monolithic tribe who will decide their votes in American democracy purely based on what happens to a country on the other side of the world.
Some will always get involved, but I think they will leave Germany when the occupation begin to set up civil structures.
Yes the aftermath will be very ugly. through a interesting aspect will be that churches and parties/union (especially SPD, all Communists have likely left for East Germany) will be very strong later on, as they would have been the only organisation people could trust under the Famines, plus they would have used their connection to churches and parties abroad to get extra food and sent children abroad. Which give us a very good idea how post-famine politics will look. SPD will be the non-sectarian party, while Catholics vote Zentrum and Protestants vote something like the German People Party (DVP). Union will be strong even in this de-industrialised society, but they will be split between red (SPD) and yellow (DVP/Zentrum) unions. Some Nazi remnant will likely exist (FDP), but it will likely be very weak outside the Rhineland. SPD and DVP will likely look toward Netherlands, Belgium (for SPD) and the Nordic Countries, through SPD will also be connected to Labour and PS to lesser extent. While Zentrum will look toward France. With Bavaria being independent West Germany will have a small Protestant majority (likely around 60%) with Lower Saxony being the stronghold of DVP.
I may have Schumacher as the first Chancellor of post-occupation Germany. He won't get to enjoy it for long though, he died in 1952 IOTL.
Agreed, I will implement these ideas.
Agreed.
I see your points. Here is how I see things going. Taft gives farmers the big middle finger. Some farmers defect to the Democrats, but others abandon both parties. I see three types of people joining the new "farmers party"
1) Some German-Americans who have left the GOP but refuse to go back to "Morganthau's party".
2) Conservatives who refuse to join the Democrats just because the GOP "betrayed them". Afterall, the Democrats aren't going to become 100% pro-farmer overnight. Their bases are in the South/Urban North, the midwest will be an afterthought at best.
3) People who just saw both party parties blow it and have decided to try a third way.
I'm guessing the Democrats will pick up some support in the "outer" midwest, but the "core" of the Midwest will house the new farmer's/little guy's party. Basically the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas, will be the home base for these people.
It's not all German Americans, but the Germans of the Midwest was relative newly arrived and many had grown up in German speaking communities, it was only in the period from 1917-1960 that we saw the collapse of the German language in USA, and while many German Americans especially below the age of 30 didn't speak German most of their parents did. And while Germany may not mean a lot to those young people, coming home to ones crying mother, who have just gotten a letter about her dead sibling in Germany, a sibling who have died because a the American president an "unelected Jew" have decided to starve her to death. The death in Germany is on such a scale that those personal stories won't be unique any more, they will be statistic, and it will tales which will be spread in the community, and do you want to be the guy in the community defending the unnecessary and inhumane policies, which starves your neighbour aunt to death, specially if you too know of relatives in the old country.
Remember this is not some group, which dwell among other group, the Germans of USA was historical like the American Irish, a large population which was in majority or plurality in the areas they lived, and as the Irish they had continued gotten new arrivals from the homeland, and the American Irish supported IRA until Clinton.
There's also the fact that many people in the MidWest met German POWs who were doing farmwork, and for the most part liked them.
Lost Freeway
Banned
Would Happy Chandler really associate himself with the overtly segregationist States' Rights Party? After all, he supported desegregation during his second term as governor.
From Wikipedia:
"Chandler remained involved in politics throughout his tenure as baseball commissioner. In 1948, he became the leader of the Dixiecrat movement in Kentucky. He hosted Dixiecrat presidential candidate Strom Thurmond at his home when he visited the state."
He is a "liberal" in the party ITTL. His nomination is an effort to "moderate" the image of the party outside the south. "See, we're totally levelheaded! Certainly not crazy racists or anything like that"
Could some elections be thrown to the House because of the fragmentation?
While Southern Rhodesia might be more "elitist" in its immigration policies, Pretoria might send some to Namibia, as a fronter.
And if Germans go to Finland, they could assimilate as Swedish-speaking.
And we could see more Russian cultural influence in Germany - some locals could even become Orthodox, in exchange of bread.
Impact of German Immigration
South Africa, Denmark, Soviet Union
1950's
Apartheid
Canada, Australia, Rhodesia, Brazil, Argentine, Paraguay, and Chile were all popular sites for Germans fleeing the famine or The Anarchy. However, the flight of Germans from Europe had perhaps the most lasting impact on South Africa. German immigrants were integrated into the existing South African culture, blending in with the Afrikaans. This had the immediate effect of strengthening the use of Afrikaans over English. The exception being the province of Namibia, where German once again became dominant.South Africa, Denmark, Soviet Union
1950's
Apartheid
In terms of the political scene, the large influx of Germans had huge repercussions. With White dominance secured by German immigration, the South African elite felt secure enough to grant full citizenship and voting rights to Coloureds and Indians by the 1970s. By integrating these two groups into the ruling class, minority rule by "full citizens" was solidified. From this point South Africa would begin its decades long process of slowly integrating the remaining non-citizens into the political elite.
It is instructive to note that discrimination against Blacks in Apartheid was predicated upon the notion of the "inferiority" of the Bantu nations. These primitive proto-nations needed to be "raised" to the level of "civilization" of the Afrikaans before the "primitive tribesmen" could become full citizens. However as soon as the Afrikaans recognized non-Whites (the Coloured) as part of their nation thanks to the "cushion" afforded to their power base by the influx of German immigrants, the doors were swung open for further incorporation. Soon the "inferior" Blacks who could find a White or Coloured ancestor could themselves full citizens. Although still a hodgepodge of racism and discrimination, South Africa had begun a slow march toward modernity...
We Are the Danes. You Will be Assimilated. Resistance is Futile.
South Schleswig was readily assimilated into the Danish identity and the Danish language eclipsed the use of German within a generation. Südtöndern (South Tönder) was amalgamated with Danish Tønder (Tönder) to form a united Tønder Amt (County). Additionally, North Frisian was granted co-official language status in Husum Amt and Tønder Amt. Holstein on the other hand proved to be a stickier wicket, the Danes had little interest or ability to assimilate the population there. While Danish was widely understood and spoken north of the Eider, this wasn't the case in Holstein. Though Danish would quickly become a second language of choice, the broader problem was that Holstein was too big to be just a county. After the failure of various schemes, the Danes turned to federalism to solve their administrative problems. Holstein (Holsten), Schleswig (Sønderjylland), North Jutland (Nørrejylland), Funen (Fyn) Zealand (Sjælland), Faroe (Færøerne) and the Capital (Hovedstaden) were all granted devolved parliaments. These new units were dubbed landsdele (provinces). Greenland, the odd one out, became an autonomous amts under the watchful eye of the capitol region. Meanwhile Bornholm and Faroe would find themselves independent provinces...Willy Brandt
Willy Brandt is perhaps one of the more interesting figures to emerge from post-war Germany. Brandt lived as refugee in Norway and Sweden during Hitler's Reich, returning to his native Lübeck after the Americans pulled out of the continent. A savvy born-politician fluent in Norwegian and Swedish, Brandt quickly rose to become the mayor of Lübeck. Under Brandt, the city experienced a post-war boom. Folkevogn (Volkswagen) set up shop in Denmark and Lübeck welcomed fleeing German technical experts with open arms. When Holstein was granted province status in 1953, he was elevated to Landsdelsformand (governor). Brandt would eventually rise though the ranks to become Chairman of Nordic Council. It would be in his capacity as Chairman that he would be credited with a masterful steering of the Nordic longboat of state during a turbulent decade to say the least...City States of Europe
Hamburg is one of the more colorful corners of Europe. Lying on the border of the NEZ, West Germany, and East Germany, the city is controlled by the United Kingdom and serves as the main access point for British goods entering Central Europe. The city itself also serves as the main export and import harbour for East Germany and Czechoslovakia. Naturally, the free city is an important port and transport hub for Denmark as well. Boasting a population 3 million in 1950, Hamburg joined the NEZ after the conclusion of Bulganin's five-year plan. Bremen, on the other hand, languished as a result of its American occupation. Serving as the main port for the agricultural products of the Garden of Europe, Breman would never reach the glimmering heights of its city-state brethren. On the other side of the continent, boasting a population of 1 million, the Free Territory of Trieste houses a British military base and great deal citizens who found life under Togliatti or Tito less than a "socialist utopia". Roughly three quarters of Trieste's population identifies as Italian while the remaining quarter is mostly a mix of Slovenes and Croats...Soviet Union
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I find the changes in South Africa occurring way too fast, full citizenship for Indians and Coloureds would likely wait until the 1970s or so. In the meantime, grand apartheid and the associated Bantustans will be tried as per OTL.
It would more likely be a German ASSR in Kazakhstan rather than a full SSR and this would probably not happen until the 1960s or so. The war memory will be too raw in the 1950s. Volga Germans weren't rehabilitated until 1964 OTL after all. A great deal of the refugees remaining will be russified in time, the main language in mixed families will be Russian and the children will identify as Russian on their internal passports. Kazakhstan has a chance of becoming majority Russian OTL which could have "interesting" consequences.
It would more likely be a German ASSR in Kazakhstan rather than a full SSR and this would probably not happen until the 1960s or so. The war memory will be too raw in the 1950s. Volga Germans weren't rehabilitated until 1964 OTL after all. A great deal of the refugees remaining will be russified in time, the main language in mixed families will be Russian and the children will identify as Russian on their internal passports. Kazakhstan has a chance of becoming majority Russian OTL which could have "interesting" consequences.
I could see British carmakers like Jaguar using German engineering to build better sportscars to combat the Italians. While the French build the Voiture populaire (Popular Car) using Volkswagen ideas.