The Terrible Thirties

The Terrible Thirties

Introduction

In the end, I thought sod it. The Restless Twenties can be seen as more or less done. I tried to take comments and advice on board, but some of it was frankly contradictory, and not just vaguely but absolutely and specifically, so I tried to find my own way through. In doing so, I probably did not please anyone, least of all myself.

The Restless Twenties
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=88209

Perhaps though I have prepared myself a foundation, for any arguments about the Thirties have now to take the twenties as cannon. No more calls for TR to become president; he's dead, he never lived to see the 1920 election, its done and dusted, however much romantics may wish otherwise.

So, please, if you wish to comment in this thread (and I hope that people do), please take everything I have written in the Twenties thread as cannon, otherwise all that will happen is that old arguments will be rehashed again out of context.

That said, this thread starts in 1929, but heh, that was always inevitable !!!


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The Prelude - 1929

The Prelude - 1929

An assassination always stirs things up, and none more so than that of Ramsay MacDonald in London in early May. It was the start of the election campaign, and the old campaigner was out on the stump for his old friend, and now party leader, J H Thomas.

The preceding weeks, indeed months, had seen a rise in street fighting between supporters of the right wing splinter groups, emboldened by the chaos their fellow travellers were causing across France, and radical Leftists, best described as an amalgam of militant trade unionists, old-style Communists, and new style groups who deliberately sought to ape the Rightists

Once the election began in earnest, there was always the risk of disruption of meetings of any party by supporters of one or other extreme. Sometimes both combined in attacking a rally, such as that of the Liberals which broke down into a fully-fledged battle between the rival extremes, leaving the Liberal speakers and their supporters looking on in a mixture of horror and bemusement

But MacDonald's assassination was the first time that anyone other than the occasional late night drunken hot head had discharged a gun in anger. So shocked were people that he got off a second shot, but doctors later confirmed that the first one had proven fatal to the one-time Labour leader, a man who had refused a peerage the year before

Government and police hopes that this would be a one-off atrocity proved to be just that, hopes with little foundation. Once the genie was out of the bottle, it insisted upon wreaking a maelstrom before it could be recaptured.

Armed guards became an ever-present at ralleys, at first provided by the police, but later by auxiliary units of the army. Attempts by the radical Right to supply its own armed men resulted in a full-scale battle with police, with over a dozen casualties on both sides. After that, Lloyd George's government took the decision to only use the army in any repeated attempt.

A flurry of legal activity attempted to put the stop to such paramilitary activities, banning several movements, arresting their leaders and declaring offences ranging from the spreading of malicious propaganda to support for an illegal organisation. But the movements simply metamorphised, new leaders emerged to guide them, and the imprisoned leaders became martyrs, even whilst they lived in luxurious imprisonment.

The midst of an election campaign is not the best place to begin trying to limit freedoms of speech, and little notice was taken of the less direct of the new laws as mass rallys began to crowd the city streets. Even Opposition spokesmen denounced emergency legislation passed under revived DORA auspices, condemning that it had never come before the House, for all that the House was dissolved and the government a lame duck running a marathon

Hopes that MacDonald would be the only victim of an assassin disappeared when on the same day Sir John Simon and Lord Robert Cecil were cut down. A day later, Winston Churchill narrowly escaped an assassin's bomb, and two days beyond this a similar device caught Herbert Samuel as he was leaving Downing Street. He died a week later of his wounds

After this the army patrolled the streets, leading politicians spoke only indoors, and with armed soldiers vetting everyone who attempted to enter meetings. Up and down the country tensions mounted as the day of the poll approached

Had there ever been an election like it ? Soldiers guarded the polling stations, armoured cars drove the streets of all major cities, bi-planes circled overhead keeping watch, and yet trouble was never far away.

Illegal rallys, marches of Rightist supporters to the doors of the polling station, hijacking of the roadways, and pitched battles with police and troops all led to an atmosphere of deepest crisis as the British public went to cast their vote.


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

3

The British election had been watched with alarm throughout much of Europe, and in the USA where recently-inaugurated President Daniels makes a statement of solidarity with the ordinary people of Great Britain.

In Germany, the centre-right ruling party made loud public statements deploring the 'French disease', but at the same time put in place covert preparations to deal with any such outbreak of street politics within the Empire.

In Paris, the beleagured President, having taken emergency powers to rule personally without a Prime Minister, found himself facing even greater problems as the various French militant factions took heart from events in Britain and stepped up their own campaigns. Talks of coups, counter-coups, and the involvement of the military ran rife, and an official visit by the Foreign Minister of military-led Italy did nothing to lessen the tensions

In Portugal, troops fired on protesters in Lisbon, whilst in Spain it seemed to be the Leftists who were more encouraged, with militant unionism again raising its head and a series of strikes paralysing much of the country into the Summer


Back in Britain, the results of the June 1929 election were tabulated and a nightmare situation realised. Not only did no party command an overall majority, but all three major parties had a roughly equal share of the vote. Crisis meetings, including King George V in sessions of the Privy Council, found little way through the deadlock. Constitutional procedures had to be followed.

As the incumbent government, it was without doubt that the Liberals had lost the election. they had lost a large number of seats and seen their majority vanish. They were narrowly the largest overall party, but so close were the other two main parties that this was no advantage whatsoever. Lloyd George agreed to resign, and it was over to the official Opposition to see if they could form an administration

Since 1924 this had been the Labour Party, and under J H Thomas it had recovered its strength and vitality. It was not about to pass up a chance to govern, even if it would have to rely on cross-party support for any legislation.

However, a purely Labour government would be so completely a minority government that it would fall at the first instance it didn't get full support from one or other party. Taking this, George V requests that the government endeavour to include elements from the other parties for the interests of the country. Thomas agrees to give it consideration


Whilst all this is going on, Britain is basically rudderless. Lloyd George has resigned and Thomas has moved into Number 10, but he hasn't got a coherent cabinet, let alone shored up support in the Commons, and the Lords is a foreign place to most Labour politicians. The civil service and the IGS keep things ticking over as necessary, but the situation on the streets remains tense

In many areas, Rightist candidates won a respectable share of the vote, although none were elected under the first-past-the-post system, but in many city councils Rightist and Leftist councillors have seized seats from the established parties. Several industrial cities see large illegal rallys by these groups, and in Birmingham and Leeds there are running battles in the streets


After much discussion, Thomas is able to secure a small degree of support from both the Liberals and the Conservatives for the king's plan. Viewing the internal situation as an emergency along the lines of the Great War, both Lloyd George and Chamberlain agree to some of their members becoming ministers in a Labour-led government. Both Lloyd George and Austen Chamberlain, however, refuse to serve under a Labour Prime Minister

Arriving at the palace to inform the king of the agreement, Thomas finds Goerge V looking wan and pale and without the power of speech. So great has been the tension at the centre that the already ailing king has suffered a stroke.

A week of confusion follows, with the announcement of the agreement rumoured but not forthcoming and the condition of the king kept a secret from the people. Into this vaccuum the extremists march, sensing a conspiracy and loudly proclaiming the failure of democracy

July 1929 dawns with revolution in the air, and the Prince of Wales at his father's bedside. At 10 Downing Street, Thomas chairs the first meeting of the full cabinet, including three Conservative and three Liberal ministers. Outside on the streets, the shouts from another illegal rally rend the air...


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

July 1929

July 1929

News from Paris stuns and then galvanises the British political elite

At first the news of the President's assassination and the seizure of power by a Rightist paramilitary bloc is met with astonishment and dismay.

As news pours in of Orleanist and Bonapartist counter-risings, the situation appears to waver and British politicians recover their heads

News is released that King George V has abdicated for reasons of ill health, and that the Prince of Wales has now ascended the throne as King Edward VIII

A few hours later, details of Thomas' deal with the Liberals and Conservatives are released, and parliament is recalled for a full session

From France comes the news that Orleanist risings have secured several major cities, Bonapartist risings several others, and that the new military government had launched a series of campaigns against its enemies. At the same time democratic and Leftist counter-rsings are crushed in Paris, and with more difficulty in Marseilles

Churchill's inclusion in the Thomas ministry is viewed with astonishment by many, and with dismay by an equal number. But the former Home Secretary, First Lord of the Admiralty and Munitions under-minister is charged with handling the War Office, a vital ministry that Thomas feels few of his Labour colleagues are capable of handling in the present emergency

The full Thomas cabinet sees rising star Sir Oswald Mosley at the Foreign Office and veteran Labour stalwart and interim leader Arthur Henderson at the Home Office. The Liberal, Sinclair, is First Lord of the Admiralty whilst Austen Chamberlain's younger brother Neville is Minister of Trade. Labour holds onto the ministries of labour and of transport, but education and health go to other Liberals, whilst the India office is the third Conservative post, benig filled by Stanley Baldwin, a practical second-level Conservative who had only held a position before under Bonar Law's short and ill-fated 1918-1919 administration

Mosley's first business is to deal with the civil war breaking out across France. Flying with Lord Thomson, Minister of Air, in one of the new airships, Mosley visits Madrid, Rome and Vienna, meeting with both his opposite numbers and with heads of government to discuss the crisis in France


To many back in Britain, this kind of politics is anathema. With civil disorder still rife, and only thje continued use of the army keeping things in check throughout the Summer, focus on foreign affairs seems like an excuse for inaction as far as many of all political persuasions are concerned

To some degree this changes in August 1929, when King Edward VIII addresses a multi-partisan crowd in South Wales. Warned off by the Prime Minister and reminded by a an inter-party group of MPs to be mindful of his public safety, the new king nevertheless feels an overwhelming need to make such a public statement and with secret service connivance manages to achieve something of a miracle in holding a meeting to order without disturbance. It would later emerge that the secret service had that very day foiled two attempts to assassinate the king, and had shot down another half dozen militants in their homes in the hours prior to the speech

By then, however, the effects of the speech would outweigh any such dubious background. Edward VIII pledges HIS government to finding a remedy for the ills of the nation, and promises that he will never stint in working tirelessly to promote the wellbeing of the common man. Cheered to the Heavens, he is spirited away by his secret service escort.

The next day the newspapers are full of the speech, and whilst Thomas' first instinct is to resign in protest, an urgent cable from Mosley now in Vienna implores him to think of the mission of the party before personal pride. Needing to make some sort of response, Thomas bites his tongue and publically applauds the king for his honesty and bare-faced decency. In private he demands that no more stunts of this kind occur, and reminds the king of his constitutional place. Edward VIII promises to consider it in future


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

5

Civil war lands full-footed in France in late Summer 1929, and the protestation and announcements from London, Madrid, Rome and Vienna prove to have little effect

Mosley returns to London, his prestige in no way damaged by the failure of his mission. With Snowden as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Henderson as Foreign Secretary plus Churchill at the War Ministry and Sinclair at the Admiralty, this is the core cabinet that Prime Minister Thomas relies upon to see out the crises of the Summer

Edward VIII keeps to his side of the agreement and makes no more public speeches in 1929, save a sanctioned and line-by-line audited radio broadcast at Christmas

By this time, the national government has come to terms with the unrest of the Spring and Summer. Many supporters and agitators in the name of the radical extreme parties lose heart as Summer turns into Autumn and it becomes clear that Thomas' administration has the measure of the crisis

This is not to say that street fighting and outrages disappear, but their threat to the nation's system of government recedes as the year heads towards Winter. Even so, Sinclair only narrowly escapes an assassin's bullet, whilst an improvised bomb blows the army's new heavy tank prototype to bits at an exhibition in the North

This latter event has unforeseen results as Churchill presses for the take-up of the design, an otherwise overlooked part of defence spending. With Austen Chamberlain throwing his weight behind the national defence agenda, late 1929 sees Thomas give the go-ahead to a programme of production of the heavy tank, a design based on mid-1920s Vickers prototypes that failed to meet with ministerial approval. 1930 will see the production of an initial run of 30 such vehicles


In France, the miltarist regime is overthrown by an Orleanist uprising which blends with thrusts from those cities that Orleanists seized months before. The remnants of the militarist regime merge with the rebel Bonapartists, under the uncle of the present heir, and a strange and surreal situation develops across France as 1929 ebbs away. Orleanist and Bonapartist are engaged in a struggle to the death...


But for many this is only a side show in world affairs as the threatened war in the Far East finally bursts into full flame in July 1929. The Russian Empire of Denikin and his fellow generals, supplied with German equipment and advisors, engages in all-out war with the Far Eastern Republic, and its Japanese equipment, advisors and more

As 1929 ends, it remains still a conflict between the principals but units both of German and Japanese origin have come close to being drawn into actual conflict, and for many observers it is simply a matter of time before this happens


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

1930

1930

Winter brings a break, even in France. In Britain, preparations are advanced for Edward VIII's coronation, the political leadership of the country being convinced that an early coronation will help to still fears of drift and will deal a death blow to the radicals for whom the Winter period might otherwise be just a hibernation

March 1930 thus sees London the centre of imperial pageant. In response to the renewed campaign of extremist groups, the city is full of troops, but many of these come from the dominions and from India which is pressing strongly for such status.

Foreign heads of state divide into two when dealing with invites to the coronation. Some like Kaiser Karl of Austria, Alphonso XIII of Spain and Vittorio Emanuele III of Italy are convinced by the dangers of rule at home that London is not a safe place to go and send their heads of government instead.

Others, including King Manoel II of Portugal and Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany are determined to attend in person and assemble their own security details. On the part of the Portuguese monarchy these are small scale, but where the German Empire is concerned, the British government has to accept the presence of an elite unit of 'ceremonial' guards.

As it happens, the coronation goes off peacefully, again in a large part due to Edward's secret service allies who nip several plots in the bud and carry out pre-emptive raids across the capital on the eve of the coronation


Even as the foreign dignatories are dispersing, there comes news that German units have been involved in an action in the Far Eastern War. It would later become clear that a training unit had been caught out by a sudden Japanese-led strike, but in basic terms a unit of German nationals participates in fighting against a Japanese unit.

A couple of weeks of chaos ensure, during which everyone goes home from the London festivities, then as March turns into April 1930 it becomes clear that the German Empire is at war with the Empire of Japan

Around the world newspapers rumble, whilst in France the Bonapartists launch an abortive attack upon Paris


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

7

President Daniels of the USA has to deal with something of a crisis as the position of US observers to the FER/Japanese forces in the Far East War becomes dubious as more and more Japanese units are drawn into the fighting for real and as more and more of them face off against German units as the war finally reaches full proportions

In the North Pacific, Japanese naval and marine forces overcome the light scale German garrison forces and civil administration in the Marianas and Carolines

The Reichstag approves a war resolution, and an expeditionary force under Admiral Raeder with battlecruisers, cruisers and auxiliaries is despatched for the Pacific, with orders to proceed to neutral territory if the enterprise is voided before they arrive

On the domestic front, the centre-right government only remains in power after Reichstag elections by an alliance with military/nationalist groups and the government orders a massive armaments programme, the like of which has not been seen since the last year of the Great War. Among the order are four fast batleships and two experimental aircraft carriers.

The land front dominates, however, and infantry, cavalry, artillery and aerial forces are key to this. As 1930 draws on both sides invest heavily and deploy greater and greater forces to the main theatre of war.

The war in the Far East draws Germany's attention away from events in France and allows the various factions to strengthen their entrenched positions, and their neighbours to intervene without counter balance

Thus Mosley is able to gain acceptance for a London Conference on France, and sees the attendance of the foreign ministers of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Holland and Norway. The conference issues a series of memoranda, condemning extremism and calling for compromise. On the immediate front this appears to achieve little, but in the longer term it will be important


1930 sees the Far Eastern War develop from a slow and secondary theatre into a first front, with Germany and Japan beginning to employ regular, and later elite units there. In November 1930 the Reichstag approves the full service act, overcoming reservations about fighing so far from home


1930 also sees a renewed crisis in Moscow as the Denikin administration attempts to legitimise its rule with the war as a focus. Mutterings from Berlin make clear that Germany still favours a restoration of the monarchy and behind the scenes of war the ruling military split


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

8

The death of Grand Duke Kyril Vladimirovitch, assassinated in Mexico City by agents of Denikin's Russia opens the way for a full constitutional congress. Whilst Kyril's son Vladimir could be expected to resent the execution of his father he is but an adolescent and his uncles hold wiser counsel. They are opposed by Grand Duke Dmitri, in the prime of his life, but regarded as a British sympathiser for all that he has lived the last ten years in Persia.

Kaiser Wilhelm II sends veteran Field Marshal August von Mackensen to the congress as official observer, and many believe that Mackensen's influence is behind the decision to accept Vladimir as heir, with his uncle Grand Duke Andrew as Regent. In practice the generals will retain command, though Denikin will retire for one of a younger generation to become Prime Minister

1931 sees the Far Eastern War experience a series of lightning strikes and major successes for both sides, then a reversion until both are at a more level position

The expeditionary force of Admiral Raeder never approaches the North Pacific, and instead puts into Australia and mounts an only partially successful propaganda drive against the Japanese. Whilst Australians are happy to believe what they will about the Japanese, they remain hostile to the German Empire and cannot see any reason to support it, even against a mutual enemy


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

1932 Trailer

1932 will see :-

The Death of (ex) King George V

Japan transfer some of her older dreadnoughts to the FER, though they will remain largely crewed by Japanese sailors

The US presidential election. Daniels won't stand again, and the Democratic torch will be picked up by Franklin D Roosevelt


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Well, it took me all night to write this so having some comments would be appreciated

One thing I suppose I need to know is about The Hague (original ones not the ATL one) as concerns belligerent warships in neutral nations

Is the neutral nation obliged to throw them out, and if so obliged TO WHOM ? And what happens if they don't ?

I was also wondering if Germany could try to look to lease a base or something in the Dutch East Indies ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I guess my main question is about whether the German naval force CAN remain in Australian waters ?

Does the Hague require it to keep moving ports, or is it up to Australia to decide what to do with it ?

If its supposed to move but Australia doesn't enforce this, who would complain and how ? Presumably Japan would - what is their diplomatic representation in Australia at this time ? Is it a full embassy with ambassador etc ?

Would the USA complain too ?

Would it stop at complaints or would people start threatening sanctions against Australia or something ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I also would like to hear people's opinions of how a war fought in Eastern Siberia is going to go ?!

Is it going to be a lot of nothing much ? Is Russia going to make great advances in 1932 ? Has Japan and its allies got a defensive advantage ?

What will the USA make of it during an election year ? Who will be FDR's opponent in this ATL ?

Questions and not a one to answer them...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Well, I aim to continue this tonight and I could end up making things up that everyone thereafter disagrees with - it would be better to have some input before I write it, but no worries either way, its going to be written

Is the fact that there is a lot to Russia NORTH of the FER going to be of much material importance in the war ? I don't know how many campaigns could be supported at one go in this area of the world ? Also, of course, White Russia here might not be able to logistically do more than prod on other fronts, and launch one main one

I am assuming that the main front will be in the West, because if its from the North, then it leaves open the possibility of an FER/Japanese thrust Westwards. Is this strategically logical ?

I guess there will be an important aerial element, plus some river and lake gun vessels, but that infantry, railways, artillery and cavalry will be the main elements in the conflict, along with some fortified positions, and possibly trench lines ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

fernerdave said:

do you have a map of the FER borders? and is the transSiberian RR the only way russia/germany can get there?
​

Click to expand...

I have a map of Wiki (!) that I haven't checked out against the timeline yet - ie I don't know if this is a TOO LATE map and doesn't include areas that would have been inside a Japanese-dominated FER. It lies basically above Mongolia, including the Buryat lands, but as far as my initial reading has gone there are three possible capitals, so I'm a bit confused

IIRC there were Central Asian branches of the TSR which were developed lines in themselves. I would imagine that in the build-up to going to war, Russia with German aid has added to the most important of all of these, increased the number of tracks in places, built bases for rolling stock etc. But I would think that in essence railroads are the only viable way, at least of moving the infantry en masse

I guess cavalry and river forces can get there in other ways, and of course there will be quite a large standing army, mainly of cavalry and fortresses, already on the borders.

German forces though, I think, would have to come by rail. Aerial squadrons could get there on their own, but I doubt that many troops would be entrusted to air transport in this period, maybe some elite and specialist units ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Additional to the above, the position of Sakhalin is that it has been annexed by Japan. However, I am not sure about the Amur Maritime region (which I could apparently call Outer Manchuria but that would get confusing !). Some articles that I read seem to indicate that Japan wanted to incorporate it directly into their empire, and maybe even issued a proclamation. However in this timeline it will remain part of the FER, perhaps its status including special Japanese rights, certainly basing rights at Vladivostock.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Just out of interest, what do people think about the POSSIBILITY of the USA becoming engaged in the war as an enemy of Germany ? It would be an intriguing place to fight a world war...

And how much of an independent foreign policy can people see Australia following ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

It doesn't seem likely that the USA would become involved in a war against Germany. If anything, it's Japanese actions that would be raising serious concerns in the USA.

Your war does seem to be a mismatch, though - it's hard to see how the Japanese can win.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

It doesn't seem likely that the USA would become involved in a war against Germany. If anything, it's Japanese actions that would be raising serious concerns in the USA.

Click to expand...

Is it?

Japan-Americanr elations were cordial in OTLs 1920s, although they were far from perfect. America earned a lot of good feeling for sending aid to Tokyo after the 1923 earthquake, frex. And the naval treaties indicate a willingness to compromise.

Moreover, since Japan seems to be backing some sort of Chinese Republic in the ATL (I guess the Guomindang, with Japanese aid?), they aren't anywhere near as disliked as OTL Japan's.

Then there's Germany, who the US lost a war with, on the other side. And is backing some nasty Russian generals.

I think American sympathy for Japan isn't out of the question, especially with an incident in the Phillipines.

Your war does seem to be a mismatch, though - it's hard to see how the Japanese can win.

Click to expand...

Depends, doesn't it?

First, the logistics favor Japan; and it's not clear to me how good the Russian army is. As for the navy...

I am envisioning the Japanese trying the same strategy they planned for the American navy; harrying it with aircraft and submarines, until a decisive battle close to Japan. In the long run, the Japanese would lose; but a bloody nose while defending Russia's interests would cause... something.

Grey Wolf said:

I was also wondering if Germany could try to look to lease a base or something in the Dutch East Indies ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Click to expand...

Maybe yet unlikely. The Dutch policy has been neutrality ever since 1839. I doubt the government would want to run the risk of having to fight the Japanese.