The Terrible Thirties

If the Socialist are to become a real political party in the US then they would have to moderate. I think that much would depend upon the next Presidential election as to whether the Democrat party will continue or will disappear. It might mean a major shift in the political set up of the US as conservative democrats might shift to the Republican party.

Nice move with Libya GW.
 
The end of 1939

As the Bengalis prepare to announce independence, a huge Russian air raid descends on the city of Dacca. Comprising the latest heavy bombers from the vastly-improved Russian factories**, the air raid smashes much of the centre of the city. A few of the delegates are killed, but enough survive in the air raid shelters to emerge later and formalise their declaration amidst the burning ruins of what had been earmarked to be the national assembly building

Immediately upon the announcement, both Berlin and Tokyo announce that they recognise the Bengali authority as the legitimate authority for Bengal, but refrain from actually recognising their independence. Both empires announce that they will be sending Ambassador Plenipotentiaries to Dacca, and at the same time call upon the other 'Interested Powers' to agree to an international conference at a neutral location to settle once and for all the question of India

Whilst this latter receives a cautious welcome in London and Washington, both Russia and Nehru's government reject it as unnecessary meddling in the internal affairs of the Confederation

By year's end, Nehru is having some serious problems of his own. It seems that he kills one bugbear only to be faced with a hoarde of new ones. With Lahore 'solved' and the Bengali question being addressed, he might have hoped for some peace, but the Russian assault on Bengal is causing dangerous splits inside the Indian National Congress

On the one hand, Jinnah's accession to the Congress is now in danger of breaking up again. He has accepted that unless India is formed as a confederal but single entity then the Muslim lands will for the mostpart fall under the sway of foreign powers, as with Germany and its protectorate in Baluchistan/Kalat. To this end, he supported the suppression of the separatist campaign in Lahore, and also in Bengal. But the Russian onslaught on Bengal is splitting his movement, and is causing him great heartache in his own self.

For the moment, he remains committed to Nehru's policy, but warns him that there needs to be a speedy conclusion to the Bengali war or his own movement will either split apart or will be made irrelevant by a groundswell of popular protest against what is being done to their Muslim brothers, and being done largely by Russians at that

If this is not enough for Nehru's problems, Gandhi is causing great problems within the Hindu main body of the INC asking whether Nehru has dictatorial tendencies, and just where the agreement with Russia is supposed to be going

As 1939 ends, the Republic of Australia files an official protest with the Neutral Commissioner over Britain's non-payment of compensation. Lengthy legal challenges have brought the process to a halt, and Sydney tries to make it clear to the rest of the world that Edward VIII and his government have no intention of paying, treaty obligation or not

From Washington, President Vandenberg issues a formal invitation to the Australian Foreign Minister to visit in the Spring

- - -

** I have postulated that Russian aviation is enjoying something of a boom. Freed from the cloying alliance with Germany, the Russian air force is able to use home-made designs rather than German rip-offs and second-generation designs. Honed in battle over the Afghan and Lahore campaigns, the designers have come into their own and Russian factories are now producing state-of-the-art aircraft in a number of types. The exception is with jet propulsion of which they have no experience, and which so far only Germany is beginning to adopt and that on a very small scale. However, the encounter with such aircraft over Herat will have spurred Russian minds to begin to think in that direction


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
If the Socialist are to become a real political party in the US then they would have to moderate. I think that much would depend upon the next Presidential election as to whether the Democrat party will continue or will disappear. It might mean a major shift in the political set up of the US as conservative democrats might shift to the Republican party.

Nice move with Libya GW.

Thank you

I entirely agree with you about the next election, and have done some initial thoughts on the 1940 primary

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
China is something of an untold story at this point. Contrary to Hnau's latest map, I beleive the Japanese gave up most of their concessions in China proper during the first stages of the *Second World War: should they have Manchukuo and the Shantung (I'm probably off on the name) Penninsula? In any case, their reaction to Russia's adventures in Bengal could be key. Japan might look to China as a conduit for gun-running to the Bengalese rebels. China has no reason to desire a Russian-influence India because a Russian sub-contintent begins to make China feel surrounded, but so too China has little reason to trust Japan. And they'll be operating almost as a junior partner, so a relationship with the USA may be preferrable.

Yeah, that version of the map hasn't addressed India, China yet so those areas shouldn't be taken much notice of yet

Japan has retained the leases on Port Arthur/Liaotung and Tsingtao/Kiaochau but has no other Chinese territory, neither in occupation or sphere of interest. They basically decided that those types of efforts would be for the FER, and supported the Republic in Peking as an ally, partner etc

A good point about China on worry about Russia, thanks !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Again great stuff!

Bengal may be a giant mess as Japanese/Chinese/Thai and Burmese 'volunteers' assist the Bengali at independence with the Bengali's receiving lots of supplies. India/Russia may invest themselves in Calcutta but will find the countryside full of bandits. The only way to win would be to depopulate the countryside but that would lead to more resistance.

My other concern would be the logistics of India/Russia. Eventually I think the India/Russia alliance would begin to run low on critical spare parts. I do not know how industrialized India is, and the Unification wars could spur more development but Russia supplies have to cross thousands of miles next to German client states. The UK could probably sell the Confederation surplus equipment in return for recognition of Ceylon as a British dominion.

You may also see hundreds of thousands of Indian move to Africa, Caribbean and other places in the world to leave the war. A larger Indian diaspora.

America is beginning to feel it's muscles, I could see more American weapons and 'commercial attaches' showing up in Asia.

Technology
Jets may be used as a air superiority platform with prop planes as ground attack and bombers until better bomb sights and rockets are developed. Since we are seeing a lot more infantry and tank battles, might we see some sort of anti-tank rockets or recoilless rifles developed by the major powers?

Very good points; thank you for the positive comments

There has been quite a level of Indian emigration to Somaliland and East Africa, but two factors would prevent that from recurring - -1- with Britain having to recognise the independence of India by the peace treaty ending the war in 1936/7 it no longer has obligations to them, -2- the civil war in Somaliland was sparked in part by protests at the influx of Indians

Maybe Australia or Canada might look favourably on Indian emigration ? At least of skilled individuals ?

I imagine the panzerfaust/bazooka is beginning to be used in Spain, and will probably be picked by US observers with the Socialist forces and developed back in the USA

I certainly agree with what you say about logistics in the Bengal conflict. Russia may well find it has bitten off more than it can chew, especially as getting anything there by ship will also be difficult, partly because Russia's mercantile marine is not very well developed, and partly because the immediate area is under a semi-official blockade by the Japanese


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Is Eugene Debs still leading the Socialists, though? I agree with you that they're likely to be doing much better without the Red Scare and without any successful communist revolution. However, there's still a great variety of paths for such a party to take.

Debs died in 1926

Quite possibly his OTL successor as head of the Socialist Party of America, and its presidential candidate throughout the 1930s and 1940s is also the leader of the party in this timeline

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Thomas

Possibly, though, some of those who became players in the more Communist-orientated Left in the US during the OTL 1920s and 1930s might have remained in the more Socialist body in this ATL and might have emerged by 1940 to replace Thomas

Ironically their successes in the 1938 Congressional elections might actually prompt the dropping of their perennial candidate in the hope that fresh blood can build on their gains

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Debs died in 1926

Quite possibly his OTL successor as head of the Socialist Party of America, and its presidential candidate throughout the 1930s and 1940s is also the leader of the party in this timeline

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Thomas

Possibly, though, some of those who became players in the more Communist-orientated Left in the US during the OTL 1920s and 1930s might have remained in the more Socialist body in this ATL and might have emerged by 1940 to replace Thomas

Ironically their successes in the 1938 Congressional elections might actually prompt the dropping of their perennial candidate in the hope that fresh blood can build on their gains

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

You might want to take a look at Jim Larkin as a key player in a stronger US Socialist Party. He was famous for his eloquence. He got a little too Bolshevik in the early 1920's and was deported IIRC. Maybe he stays a notch more moderate. He's not native born so he wo't be running for President though.
 
Regarding the Panzerschek , It was based upon the germans looking at captured american Bazookas. So I believe that upgraded antitank guns will still be the main weapon. The German assault rifle might appear earlier though.

Much of whether the Democrat Party's chances will depend upon who they nominate for President in 1940. They will need to nominate a more conservate canidate. The question will be who is well enough known to gain support. While Smith might be a possible Canidate a dark horse like Harry Truman might stand a chance of uniting the party.
 
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