Grey Wolf
Donor
Central Powers Victorious
1918
Foch is killed in his car crash. When the Germans threaten breakout, without his influence Petain and Haig withdraw away from each other, allowing the Germans to smash the centre and drive on Paris.
France is reeling, hit with Bolshevik uprisings, mutinies and the recall of troops from other fronts
US forces make a major counter-attack, but disastrous co-ordination with their French allies, and the general state of panic in French headquarters leads the venture to disaster and it breaks down with massive losses
At the same time, German forces over-run the outer lines of Petain's defences and threaten a breakthrough there
Collapse of the Allied governments, as Clemenceau is ousted and replaced by a Leftist as an attempt to mollofy the strikers and demonstrators. In Britain, Lloyd George's shaky coalition collapses and Bonar Law heads up a largely Conservative administration. Haig is replaced, but the new British commander is now basically in charge of a British-Belgian enclave around the Channel ports
The new French government stumbles through crises and the Germans press their advantage, taking Paris and shattering a half-hearted counter-attack by Petain, reinforced by French troops from Italy
France sues for peace
Britain talks loudly about staying in the fight for Belgium etc, but US sentiment has swung bitterly against the landwar and strong feelings States-side lead to a collapse of morale at home
Prime Minister Bonar Law makes a speech about perseverance and overcoming hardship etc, which coincides with news of the French signing of surrender documents, and revolution threatens in Britain
The situation drags on through early Summer, but it becmoes clear that Wilson is an impossible task in galvanising US opinion, whilst the US forces which have withdrawn into the British-held enclave are in no state to affect the outcome as they stand
Unrest begins to hit Germany too as it looks like its leaders are deliberately prolonging an already victorious war
Queen Wilhelmina of the Netherlands brokers an Armistice
and peace negotiations will be held at The Hague
Thus 3 treaties (and their associated satellite treaties) end the war :-
-1- Brest-Litovsk
sees Russia out
-2- Paris
sees France out
-3- The Hague
sees Britain, the USA and Italy out
Due to widespread social unrest, the terms in the West are not so devastating and fall short of the rhetoric of war
Under the Treaty of Paris, France has already agreed to German annexation of the rest of Alsace-Lorraine, plus Luxembourg and the occupation of the Bre Ironfields for 10 years as 'Reparations'
Under the Treaty of The Hague, these terms are ratified plus German annexation of Belgian Luxembourg but restoration of the rest of the kingdom as a state in perpetual neutrality
(and behind the scenes, pressure for Albert to abdicate to make this neutrality a reality)
Regarding the colonies :-
- the British dominions get to keep their conquests
(the only way to get them to sign up)
- Japan keeps Tsingtao (taking over Germany's lease from China as it earlier did Russia's on Port Arthur after conquest) and gets to 'lease' bases in the N Pacific islands, though these are returned to German civil administration and sovereignty
(thus largely demilitarising them, as far as the ability to base any worthwhile German forces there is concerned)
Other colonies were originally intended to be in an annex to the Treaty of Paris, but now are combined into one of The Hague and emerge as The Hague Colonial Settlement
- Eastern Belgian Congo goes to Germany
- Northern Mozambique goes to Germany
- Tanganyika is restored in full to Germany
- Togoland is restored in full to Germany
- Western Kamerun is ceded to Britain
- This is balanced by large gains to the East and South from France
Other German ambitions are thwarted
Wilson refuses to sign this treaty, but nobody much cares
The Treaty of The Hague also addresses the position of Italy and the Balkans :-
- Italy gains the area of Gorizia/Trentino offered to it in 1914
- Italy's possession of the Dodecanese and Tripolitania/Cyrenaica is ratified
- Independence of Albania and Montenegro is restored in full
- Serbian Macedonia is ceded to Bulgaria
- Greece cedes Salonika to Bulgaria
- The Ottomans accept the independence of Egypt
(this is their only loss, though the ratification of Italian colonies thwarts their hopes)
- Serbia is restored as a demilitarised state under an Obrenovic scion and as an Austrian vassal
- Brest-Litovsk and its successor treaties are ratified by the Western Allies
The situation in the East
Kingdom of Finland
Kingdom of Lithuania
Polish National Congress
Ukraine
Elections in Georgia
German general staff continues support for Judenich, who in concert with Mannerheim's Finns attacks Petrograd
1919 plus
Final settlement for
- Baltic Duchy
- Poland
- Ukraine
White forces drive Bolsheviks back on Moscow
1919 sees elections in Britain which bring a Labour victory and sees MacDonald as Prime Minister, his painful war experience of constantly opposing the conflict now seeming having to have been vindicated
Despite rise of the German left (SPD elected in greater numbers to the Reichstag etc), the general staff retain their influence and control of foreign policy in the East
Thus by 1921, we see the establishment of a White government in Moscow, one which ratifies a series of other treaties and agreements
- size of Finland
- independence of Ukraine
- independence of the Crimea
- borders of an independent Poland
- independence of Georgia
- borders of Lithuania
- borders of the Baltic Duchy
- Armenia and N Azerbaijan to the Ottomans
Central and East Asia
With Wilson's irrelevance from 1918 and physical collapse in 1919, US policy enters a hiatus until the presidential elections of 1920
Victory for Lodge on a policy of isolationism. Wilson is set to go down in history as the madman who sent American troops to fight a war in Europe, despite all historical precedent
This allows Japan to bolster its own vassals in the Far Eastern Republic, and to influence events in Mongolia to its advantage
White forces focus on the reconquest of Central Asia throughout the early 1920s
The 1920s thus see Japan mainly focused in Siberia
- elsewhere it evacuates most of Manchuria by agreement, retaining the lease on Liaoyang and Port Arthur
- it evacuates most of Shantung, retaining the lease on Kiaochau/Tsingtao
In this strategy, Japan thus has a defensive shield consisting of its leased bases, in the N Pacific islands, in Shantung and in Manchuria. Behind this is the Home Islands (now expanded over all of Sakhalin and the Kurils by agreement with the FER) and Korea, which is increasingly integrated into Japan proper. Beyond this, Japan focuses its energies in the FER and Mongolia, using them by proxy as both a source of income and raw materials and as a buffer against a gradually resurgant Russia
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
1918
Foch is killed in his car crash. When the Germans threaten breakout, without his influence Petain and Haig withdraw away from each other, allowing the Germans to smash the centre and drive on Paris.
France is reeling, hit with Bolshevik uprisings, mutinies and the recall of troops from other fronts
US forces make a major counter-attack, but disastrous co-ordination with their French allies, and the general state of panic in French headquarters leads the venture to disaster and it breaks down with massive losses
At the same time, German forces over-run the outer lines of Petain's defences and threaten a breakthrough there
Collapse of the Allied governments, as Clemenceau is ousted and replaced by a Leftist as an attempt to mollofy the strikers and demonstrators. In Britain, Lloyd George's shaky coalition collapses and Bonar Law heads up a largely Conservative administration. Haig is replaced, but the new British commander is now basically in charge of a British-Belgian enclave around the Channel ports
The new French government stumbles through crises and the Germans press their advantage, taking Paris and shattering a half-hearted counter-attack by Petain, reinforced by French troops from Italy
France sues for peace
Britain talks loudly about staying in the fight for Belgium etc, but US sentiment has swung bitterly against the landwar and strong feelings States-side lead to a collapse of morale at home
Prime Minister Bonar Law makes a speech about perseverance and overcoming hardship etc, which coincides with news of the French signing of surrender documents, and revolution threatens in Britain
The situation drags on through early Summer, but it becmoes clear that Wilson is an impossible task in galvanising US opinion, whilst the US forces which have withdrawn into the British-held enclave are in no state to affect the outcome as they stand
Unrest begins to hit Germany too as it looks like its leaders are deliberately prolonging an already victorious war
Queen Wilhelmina of the Netherlands brokers an Armistice
and peace negotiations will be held at The Hague
Thus 3 treaties (and their associated satellite treaties) end the war :-
-1- Brest-Litovsk
sees Russia out
-2- Paris
sees France out
-3- The Hague
sees Britain, the USA and Italy out
Due to widespread social unrest, the terms in the West are not so devastating and fall short of the rhetoric of war
Under the Treaty of Paris, France has already agreed to German annexation of the rest of Alsace-Lorraine, plus Luxembourg and the occupation of the Bre Ironfields for 10 years as 'Reparations'
Under the Treaty of The Hague, these terms are ratified plus German annexation of Belgian Luxembourg but restoration of the rest of the kingdom as a state in perpetual neutrality
(and behind the scenes, pressure for Albert to abdicate to make this neutrality a reality)
Regarding the colonies :-
- the British dominions get to keep their conquests
(the only way to get them to sign up)
- Japan keeps Tsingtao (taking over Germany's lease from China as it earlier did Russia's on Port Arthur after conquest) and gets to 'lease' bases in the N Pacific islands, though these are returned to German civil administration and sovereignty
(thus largely demilitarising them, as far as the ability to base any worthwhile German forces there is concerned)
Other colonies were originally intended to be in an annex to the Treaty of Paris, but now are combined into one of The Hague and emerge as The Hague Colonial Settlement
- Eastern Belgian Congo goes to Germany
- Northern Mozambique goes to Germany
- Tanganyika is restored in full to Germany
- Togoland is restored in full to Germany
- Western Kamerun is ceded to Britain
- This is balanced by large gains to the East and South from France
Other German ambitions are thwarted
Wilson refuses to sign this treaty, but nobody much cares
The Treaty of The Hague also addresses the position of Italy and the Balkans :-
- Italy gains the area of Gorizia/Trentino offered to it in 1914
- Italy's possession of the Dodecanese and Tripolitania/Cyrenaica is ratified
- Independence of Albania and Montenegro is restored in full
- Serbian Macedonia is ceded to Bulgaria
- Greece cedes Salonika to Bulgaria
- The Ottomans accept the independence of Egypt
(this is their only loss, though the ratification of Italian colonies thwarts their hopes)
- Serbia is restored as a demilitarised state under an Obrenovic scion and as an Austrian vassal
- Brest-Litovsk and its successor treaties are ratified by the Western Allies
The situation in the East
Kingdom of Finland
Kingdom of Lithuania
Polish National Congress
Ukraine
Elections in Georgia
German general staff continues support for Judenich, who in concert with Mannerheim's Finns attacks Petrograd
1919 plus
Final settlement for
- Baltic Duchy
- Poland
- Ukraine
White forces drive Bolsheviks back on Moscow
1919 sees elections in Britain which bring a Labour victory and sees MacDonald as Prime Minister, his painful war experience of constantly opposing the conflict now seeming having to have been vindicated
Despite rise of the German left (SPD elected in greater numbers to the Reichstag etc), the general staff retain their influence and control of foreign policy in the East
Thus by 1921, we see the establishment of a White government in Moscow, one which ratifies a series of other treaties and agreements
- size of Finland
- independence of Ukraine
- independence of the Crimea
- borders of an independent Poland
- independence of Georgia
- borders of Lithuania
- borders of the Baltic Duchy
- Armenia and N Azerbaijan to the Ottomans
Central and East Asia
With Wilson's irrelevance from 1918 and physical collapse in 1919, US policy enters a hiatus until the presidential elections of 1920
Victory for Lodge on a policy of isolationism. Wilson is set to go down in history as the madman who sent American troops to fight a war in Europe, despite all historical precedent
This allows Japan to bolster its own vassals in the Far Eastern Republic, and to influence events in Mongolia to its advantage
White forces focus on the reconquest of Central Asia throughout the early 1920s
The 1920s thus see Japan mainly focused in Siberia
- elsewhere it evacuates most of Manchuria by agreement, retaining the lease on Liaoyang and Port Arthur
- it evacuates most of Shantung, retaining the lease on Kiaochau/Tsingtao
In this strategy, Japan thus has a defensive shield consisting of its leased bases, in the N Pacific islands, in Shantung and in Manchuria. Behind this is the Home Islands (now expanded over all of Sakhalin and the Kurils by agreement with the FER) and Korea, which is increasingly integrated into Japan proper. Beyond this, Japan focuses its energies in the FER and Mongolia, using them by proxy as both a source of income and raw materials and as a buffer against a gradually resurgant Russia
Best Regards
Grey Wolf