Hi!
Thank you for the continiuing comments! Here is the next chapter. I hope, it will clear some things up a bit more.
3. Die große Diskussion (The great discussion)
"Prussia showed her true colours now. You can see it clearly, your majesty, that they did not think one minute about Germany at large. If they had, they would have tried for a treaty for us as well. They know that we cannot sail there ourselves in the momentary situation. They want a confrontation and we have to prepare for that.
Our ambassador in Berlin sent a report that even Bavaria is beginning to waver. We have to do something. Only we can unite Germany, we cannot let the upstarts in Berlin get away with their impertinence."
Ludwig von Biegeleben, inner-german politics advisor of Emperor Franz Josef of Austria
"I met Gustav Schmoller first in 1869. When I thanked him, he asked me what for, as he could not see how he helped me. I just said: For helping Austria´s goals by proxy."
Bernhard von Rechberg, austrian foreign minister
"When the first happiness at getting a trade treaty which Bavaria could not have gotten alone had settled down, I thought about the consequences ... if the result was worth the price. I knew most other states had reservations as well.
On the personal level, I had no problems with our new friends when they visited our country. Very polite, looking rather exotic, bit of a Seichtmagen (lit. shallow stomach = cannot hold the liquor well) after two Maß, but beside that I was positively surprised."
Luitpold von Bayern, later Prince-Regent of Bavaria
"My first voyage to the german states and Europe was a neverending sequence of good and bad surprises. We were greeted very warmly in the german states, no matter how different and still similar they were... their manners were a bit barbaric and strange, but their hearts are in the right place. Bad surprises were the recognition how far Nippon lagged behind in industry. Visiting the Ruhr valley or London drove that point home. The doitsu themselves are on a catch up run to Britain in industry, but culturally they are in front of the British. At times it seemed to me that the Germans are in the end phase of their own Sengoku Era. Personally I feel pride for my home country that we could show the Germans that unity can be reached even after such a strife-rich time."
Yasunobi Takeuchi, leader of the first japanese envoy group to Europe
Palais Radziwill, Berlin, March 1861
Gustav Schmoller thought that he had not talked so much in his life before as he had in the last time. He sipped on a new cup of herbal tea, but his throat still felt a bit raw. For one and a half week the expedition leaders, but he himself the most, were "grilled" by the delegations of the various german states about the treaties with Japan.
The general result of the treaties made was not questioned, all were happy that the first negotiations in such an exotic area went so well. Maybe Austria was less happy, considering the scathing remarks, but that was a different story as they were not in the Zollverein.
The first meeting of the german states ambassadors with the Japanese delegation weeks back here in Berlin had been very positive and the East Asians were on a first class round trip through all the states which now had a treaty with Edo. As far as Gustav had heard, they were in Bavaria at the moment, soon to be travelling to Württemberg, his home country.
What the represented delegations wanted to know was what had ridden the expedition to give the Japanese a probationary Zollverein membership, hoping that the capitals would ratify it and if they had thought of the consequences.
At first, most delegations had been frosty about that, fearing some adventures far away, but the tables full of maps, charts and the boards full of chalk writing attested to the battle of the economists in the last week.
"It will not be an instant 'we are the mightiest traders now' situation. In fact we have to use the coming years to steadily upgrade industry, railways and our shipping. Japan needs and wants a lot of goods. Some they will still buy from others, but for most stuff, we can now underbid any competition. But to use this bonus, we have to be able to deliver it. And this upgrading of our capabilities alone will be a boost for all our industries."
"Ships and associated industries I can see, but how will the landlocked states profit?"
"Ships alone are pretty useless if nothing is there they can carry. So combined railways through all our states are essential to bring all needed goods to the harbours and to transport the overseas goods throughout our lands."
"This sounds very nice, but you say it yourself, that it will take some time until all will be really profitable. Why bother?"
The days were filled with these questions, some good, some bad, from the reactionaries to the ultraliberals. Still, Schmoller and minister von Delbrück, who backed the initiative of the Eulenburg expedition, could feel that each day more states saw the possible benefits. It was on the sixth day that even the notoriously skittish, independence-safeguarding, Austria-friendly Bavarians were won over. That was the game-changing moment. With Bavaria in favour, the ratification was assured, but the questioning not fully over.
"Yes, it will be costly, it will take time and for some years the imports from Japan will mostly be just basics and essentials, but as my late colleague Friedrich List was fond of saying: We need to look into the future, not only the short-term.
If our honourable governments ratify the membership of Japan in the Zollverein, we create the third most populous economic zone on this planet after only the British and French Empires. I say third largest, because Russia or China might be bigger, but neither is really industrializing, same as for Spain and his colonies. With Nippon in the Zollverein our direct 'homezone' counts 60 million people and more, in Nippon we have a jumpboard to other markets without tariffs and tolls. Look at the markets here in Europe. Be it Austria, France or Britain, all are protected by tariffs as we have to protect the Zollverein with it. Nippon has great potential, many simply have not the knowledge to see that and we are the first to have the foot really in the door. No tariffs, no tolls, few competition and the chance to influence their further development and not only the industry at that, in our direction. If we just take the chance we were given by fate."
"Let´s take that at face value for a moment, but if what you have told us is true, then it will be a time until Japan will be able to fully pay her bills they accrue. While parts can be offset against things we import and if the potential is as big as implied, our government would accept some debts from the Japanese, since someday it would be finally paid off, but I know that some honourable colleagues prefer more material payment. What about that?"
"On this Herr von Brandt has an idea, which could be used."
"Your Graces, honourable colleagues, on the way back from the Far East I developed an idea after seeing the circumstances ion Japan. In the last weeks, I refined it together with our foreign and trade ministries in light of the way our relations with the Japanese seem to develop. As a material payment for our help and goods, let me tell you about an island called Ezo or Hokkaido..."
Von Brandt´s report and idea fanned the discussion anew. The consequences of that idea, if implemented, were clear to all delegations, but for a full two days everybody did not speak out loud what all members thought. You simply cannot partition an island of that size into over thirty bits, that would help nobody. Beside that, some years downstream, the German states would make their presence know on the big stage if the potential of the new Zollverein was true. And there you had to speak with one voice...
It was finally the foreign minister of the Grand-duchy of Baden, Anton von Stabel, who spoke out what all delegations thought about. "If I may take the word, it is amusing to see us all dancing around, but I think we need to stop this egg dance. In the Southwest, we pride ourselves on the ability to speak out clearly what we want. So following that tradition: We have to begin first talks about a unification of our nations back into a united Germany. At the latest by the coming developments in Europe and elsewhere we will be forced to stand tall against our rivals and for our new friends. And God alone knows what Austria or the other Great Powers will do when faced with that prospect. So we better prepare for that."
For a moment the hall was silent, then the discussion broke loose, full steam ahead. With those still friendly to Austria and those preferring Prussia as the leader locked in a heated debate, Gustav Schmoller was glad that this was a talk he did not need to chip in much. And what he recognized early as a mostly spectator, was that the youngest developments, which he played a part in, had changed the balance. It became clear that even Bavaria was drifting away from Austria on the question of leadership in Germany, their arguments obviously political manoeuvring unlike just a few years back. Austria´s influence in Germany had eroded in the last years due to political events, their non-membership in the Zollverein and Vienna´s different focus and now the success and the promises of the Eulenburg expedition had tipped the balance into Prussia´s favour. Not that a unification was close, but now there was at least an earnest talk about it.