Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel -German Unification in the 1860s

katchen

Banned
s

One other track that Germans can move quietly and privately on with Russia besides a railroad across Siberia is an Arctic sea route around all or part of Siberia. Better use of the Arctic Seas can only benefit Russia. The Russians already know, for instance that the Murmansk Coast is open year round and that a railroad from St. Petersburg to it would not only be profitable to a private party for grain shipments but enable Russia to build a naval base that no one could shut down. IOTL, Russia never got the railroad to Murmansk built until 1916 and then only with Allied assistance, but this is a different TL..
And in return, Russia can provide cooperation for German exploration with steam powered ships designed to survive under ice forming or ice melting conditions. Those ships will at least find that there is a regular season to the Ob and Yensei valleys making regular steamboat travel possible from Hamburg to a portage to the Lena River in the summer. Thaat greatly will improve communications with Japan.
Beyond the Yensei mouth, sternwheelers with rounded hulls that won't get caught in the ice and can draw themselves onto the ice and collapse ice from above may be able to get a lot farther. It won't happen immediately, but sometime in the near future, someone will make it to and through the Bering Strait in one season. Probably within one month. Then it will only be a matter of locating coal deposits. and a trade route will be established.
And while we are on the subject of German settlement Beer, there has always been a habitual destination for German agricultural migrants and that destination is Russia. Remember the Volga volksdeutsch?
So given the fact that the Russian-American Company that runs Alaska has been running in the red since at least the 1840s (the Russians explored the possibility of selling Alaska to the United States a few years ago under James Buchanan but it went nowhere) wouldn't a valid offer of German volsdeutsch settlers that could revitalize Alaska's economy be welcome news to that company's directors? A plan from which Ezo could be a jumping off point.Alaska has cachet and credibility for prospective immigrants --because it's in America! (And yes, the parts of Alaska those immigrants will be directed to are habitable.). Japanese settlement in Alaska also would be possible. And there will be no more talk of selling Alaska to the United States. A railroad across the Bering Strait down the line? Maybe.
Count Muraviev will also be overjoyed at the prospect of attracting volksdeutsch to the Amur Basin as well if he can't get Russian families to leave their mirs and settle new land individually. But with Volksdeutsch colonies all the way across Russia now to the Volga and the Ob and it's tributaries reachable to the Arctic Ocean in late summer by water even without a railroad, volksdeutsch colonies both settled from Germany and cloned off of existing Russian Volksdeutsch colonies can start in the Lesosteppe at Tyumen, Tobolsk, the Ishim, Omsk, Tomsk Krasnoyarsk and farther and down the Tobol, Irtysh, Ob and Yensei. Then in the Amur and Lena Basins. Rather like how the comtemporary United States and Canada are being settled.
And all of this occurring on a private basis that pulls the governments along. Now Russia has lost the Crimean War, the reactionary powers in Russia such as the streltski are in eclipse and blamed for the backwardness that enabled Russia to lose the war. Just as the conservative elements in Germany and Japan are. There is a community of interest here. And to the degree these connections run through inner Asia, those connections are largely immune to any interference by Great Britain or other seaborne European powers.
 
I don't think France would have allowed German reunification without a fight. Napoleon lll wouldn't like that at all.
 

katchen

Banned
They didn't. They wouldn't. They won't. But it is the nature of private development that a lot of it is off public radar . The US government would not have been able to get away with half the things as policy in the 19th Century without triggering responses from the UK and France that private individuals did and created fait accompli with Fremont in California is a prime example.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

@Obfuscated
(Big grin):D Nice scene, but it is very unlikely and needs an enormous spur. The Austrians until the end of the Donau-Monarchy never signed even when the conditions were very positive for them. But then again, in the later years, the austrian parliament was practically always stalemated, which seems to be one of the biggest factors later on.

@katchen
Interesting idea, katchen, thank you, but that is stuff for an ATL all of it´s own! But I agree with you that cooperation with St. Petersburg would be good for Berlin and Edo/Tokyo. Still it will be a balance act, since most directions the Russians might move into, are ones neither Germany or Japan would like.
But on relations with Russia, I already have some interesting things planned.

@MDSJR1967
Well, only the war of 1866 will be "missing" on the road to unification, even if the other two will be different in some things. And 1866 is not there, because in this ATL the strands of fate move away from that war due to the butterflies. Even OTL that war could have been avoided, but the events slid into that way. ATL already two medium points diverge so far from OTL on the case for that war, that it will not happen.
Actually 1864 is avoidable too, but the total delusion of the danish government in 1863/64 is not hit by the butterflies.
 

RavenMM

Banned
As I said, I really like this TLs idea, I read some more to get to know all the important persons and things during the 1860s in Japan. So naturally I have some more questions for the author ;)
The treaty of Amity and Commerce between the US and Japan set fixed import and export duties, which should be subject to international control. Kiyoshi Inoue's Geschichte Japans talks about similar treatys with other countrys. How does this fit with the Zollverein? How are german people treated in japan? Are they only allowed in port towns like the rest of the world? I'm looking forward to see the conflict between Japan and Russia resolved regarding to the Kurile Isles and Sakhalin.
Hokkaido was only named so during the Meiji-restoration. Will it be known as Ezo in Germany or will it have still another name?
Edit: forgot about the effects on japanese population :eek:
Inoues book talkes about strongly rising food prices. Does the same happen here? You already said there will be more rice in germany, but will german food stuff be shipped to japan? And will the japanese government change the gold/silver trading rate to adjust it to world market prices soner?


Regarding coaling stations in africa: colonization in africa was only beginning, I think, but still, most places were already claimed by different countries. Togo and Benin were the first "unclaimed" places on the westafrican coast. Cameroon, the congo delta and Namibia are also unclaimed. Guinea was claimed by france shortly before, but they had big problems getting it under control. Maybe they can arrange something?
For an eastafrican route, after the suez-channel opens, there is still eritrea and most parts of somalia and most parts down to mozambique.
But with all the exchanging, buying and swapping of colonies, you should have free reign...
 
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Beer

Banned
Hi RavenMM!

I am always happy when the readers like my stories enough to ask questions and give comments, hints, et al.
To your questions: In that age, there was also a lot of secret treaties, backroom diplomacy was far more widespread than today. Treaties or parts of treaties were only enforced internationally between "civilized" nations and even then very macchiavellian. Britain excelled at this "honour treaties only when needed", they got the "perfidious Albion" moniker for a reason. Which these days is once again confirmed with the spying scandal.

In the ATL and OTL case, Japan signed these skewed treaties under pressure and being a member of the Zollverein now gives security. At that time in history Japan is not as important as later on and few nations would try to enfore their lopsided treaties against the Zollverein nations, because it would mean trouble in the Old World. And more over something at that point in history not worth that trouble. As seen OTL, Japan got adjournments even without membership in the Zollverein. (Shimonoseki was only because of Mori attacking foreign shipping)
Now ATL, with Nippon part of the Zollverein, getting funny ideas will anger Prussia and her satellites. Prussia is one of the main powers back then and nudging a Geat Power was only done when needed.
It was far easier and less problematic gazumping "second rate" nations alone, than to do it when such a nation had the backing of a Great Power.

Japan is on the way to big reforms, be it willingly or be circumstances. among it will be the relations and treatment of gaijin in Japan. To modernize, they have to open Japan to gaijin, but how the general treatment is...
In the first phase, the treatment will be governed how "unfair" the nation they come from was/is. Germans will have it easier, while e.g. Americans, who forced their treaty on Nippon at gunpoint will have it harder.
I know that Hokkaido got it´s modern name rather late. I find it ok, but the final ATL name of the Island I still ponder.
The prices will rise in some portfolios, but less than OTL. Being in an economic zone with others, even if those others are over 8000 km directline distant, helps. Japan get´s food from Germany, The change in gold/silver rates will come faster, simply by being a part of the Zollverein.
 
I hope France won't get battered as bad as OTL. It has been said that there won't be Alsace-Lorraine annexation, so that will might be very well the case. Bonus point if it's with minimal incursion into French territory. That's what Bismarck would've preferred anyway.
 

flaris

Banned
I hope France won't get battered as bad as OTL. It has been said that there won't be Alsace-Lorraine annexation, so that will might be very well the case. Bonus point if it's with minimal incursion into French territory. That's what Bismarck would've preferred anyway.

No beat up those monkeys with their silly white flags and proper cooking
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

Here is part two of the third chapter. Enjoy and please keep commenting!

Ballhausplatz, Vienna, Austria, March 1861

"...and I say we cannot let this stand!"

"I beg your pardon, we are not member of the Zollverein, so who they let in, is not ours to decide."

"I know that you are a friend of the Prussians, but even someone like you must see the danger to Austria!"

"First, I am no friend of Prussia as you see it. Because I see the dangers to Austria, I advice restraint. It might have escaped your attention, but the situation with the other states of the confederation worsened over the last years already, not just now."

"Yes, because we let Berlin run on a too long line! - Your Majesty, we should take action before Prussia and bring the other southern states together in one federation, then we unite with them over time. Soon after, the other small and medium states will follow."

"Your Highness, the honourable Mister von Biegeleben still lives in age of the Liberation Wars against Napoleon. Even in the 1830s, when we had a more positive image in the other states, we could not find enough common ground to bring the southern nations, traditionally closer to us than Prussia into a union with us. As I often told this round, since the Congress here in 1815, our aims are more different from the other german states than before. - Even if Herr von Biegeleben does not believe it, I would like to see a new unification with Vienna at the top.
But as the foreign minister of Austria I have seen and spoken with most of my colleagues in the Confederation. And I can guarantee it, your Highness, that it will not function as your advisor on inner-german affairs believes.
As all persons in this room knew, our most important external goals are stability in our italian possessions and a free hand in the Balkans against the Turks and whoever else tries to interfere there. For the other states in the Bund, Italy is not very important, but we could solve this problem, as they see the positives if not all Italy is in French-friendly hands. But the Balkans... Even Munich, who is very close to us, has no wish to be involved in "adventures" in the Balkans. And the other governments are not dumb, they know that sooner or later such an intervention would come. If we want to lead a unification, we have to bring more onto the table, to convince the others that we are the better leader.
But at least in part due to our decisions, the conflict with Prussia is escalating...and now the Prussians made a big hit with their successful voyage to Asia.

My Kaiser, if I may, I will contact Berlin and negotiate special privileges and guarantees for the Balkans and Italy in exchange for a peaceful resolution of the unification question. It will help Austria far more than the war against Prussia we are getting ever closer to."

Emperor Franz Josef of Austria had listened to the two most important adepts on the relations with the other german states for hours now. It was not the first time, quite the contrary. And the young Emperor had to admit that von Rechberg had become a lot more moderate during his tenure as foreign minister of Austria. But von Biegeleben was right that Austria had to defend the leadership in the German Confederation.
On the other side, an internal war would only help France or Russia. Neither von Biegeleben nor von Rechberg could hear the soft sigh from the Emperor.
"Dear minister von Rechberg, I give you until the end of 1862 to negotiate the guarantees you promised me just a few moments ago. If you can get Berlin to accept that it is Austria who gives the final vote on a unification, be it as the coming leader of a new Germany or be it by staying apart of her own sovereign will, then I will condone your ideas. Bring me the guarantees we need and the Confederation will end peacefully and for the wellbeing of all. If the documents are not here by New Year 1863 the latest, we will censure Prussia in the diet of Princes dear von Biegeleben will prepare. Because if you cannot get Berlin to recognize reality, then we have no choice but to make sure that our leadership is secure - with any measures which are needed."

Then the monarch left the meeting and von Rechberg was left behind with a pleased looking von Biegeleben.
"I have to say, well done! You know as well as I do, that Berlin will not hear you. and I look forward to see when his Majesty replaces you with someone who has backbone in service of Austria! I wish you a nice day and good luck. You will need it."

Kyoto, Japan, Spring 1861

Not only in the german states was the new treaty discussed, but naturally in Japan as well. As the enemies of the Shogun feared, this type of treaties, namely fair ones, gave Iemochi quite a push in prestige. Still, it was tempered by the fact that the Tenno had been fully involved in the process, so Komei got his fair share of additional reception, too.
What became clearer with each passing month was hat now the frontlines between the two main factions in Japan had become blurred. Shogun Iemochi had to deal with grumbling in his own faction, the ultra-conservatives were in uproar about the opening of Japan and more, what would happen as soon as the Germans were back in numbers. in this case, they went conform with the more racist and anti-gajin factions part of the Tenno´s side.
On the other hand, the Clans who controlled the Lion´s share of Japan´s external trade, like for example the Shimazu or the Matsumae, were positively giddy with excitement, no matter if they were on the Tenno´s or the Shogun´s side.
By early 1861 it became obvious that the "frontlines" were shifting and shifting so much, that the Shogun and the Tenno really needed to meet more often. The Shogunate began to slide because a lot of support broke away with the new course in Edo. Just a year earlier, this would have been very much a reason for Tenno Komei to be happy, but now he had to face crumbling support as well. A sizeable number of his side, were simply more against the Shogun and gaijins, less for Komei´s innovative and reformative course.
A time of strange bedfellows began in Japan, exemplified by the meeting between Ryoma Sakamoto, Takachika Mori and Takeaki Enomoto at the end of May. Sakamoto, who was operating against the Bakufu on the Tenno´s side and Enomoto, who stood loyal to his Shogun, were briefed by their leaders to keep the wavering Mori on the side of the Tenno!

The time of the Dakyou, the "Zeit des Ausgleichs", had begun. In part because of strict necessity, in part of lobbying from the handful of Germans who had stayed provisory as ad-hoc advisors. Not only for the build-up of the japanese section of the Zollverein, but among the crew of the Eulenburg expedition had been an old companion of, famous expert in constitutional law, Heinrich von Gagern, who originally had been there for law questions.
Despite this lobbying, in some cases maybe because of this help by Europeans, the new sides in japanese politics began to form.
The groups loyal to the reform course of Tenno and Shogun and the groups loyal to the old order or strictly against foreigners under a clique of Samurai led mostly by Katamori Matsudaira. And the tensions still grew, even when the reform side had the approval of a majority of the Japanese.
 
On the other hand, the Clans who controlled the Lion´s share of Japan´s external trade, like for example the Shimazu or the Matsumae, were positively giddy with excitement, no matter if they were on the Tenno´s or the Shogun´s side.

The Matsumaes had Ezo, right? Will they still be excited when the Tenno proposes to sell it to Germany - or will the sale be their idea?
 

Beer

Banned
The Matsumaes had Ezo, right? Will they still be excited when the Tenno proposes to sell it to Germany - or will the sale be their idea?
Hi!
The Matsumae (and in essence Japan) controlled only the southern tip of Ezo/Hokkaido until the Meji-Time. If Ezo goes to Germany as a payment for stuff and future things, the Matsumae will not be angry as long as they can keep trading and get some kind of compensation. Most of their possessions are in northern Honshu and we do not have to guess where the Germans will buy a lot of materials and food during the first time on Ezo.
The Matsumae will be a Clan who will get really rich soon. And we can be sure after the Dakyou fully gets speed, a lot of the major players in Japan will additionally invest in Ezo.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
I guess my role is going to be devil's advocate here. Or devil's fan, maybe?

When you write politics, it doesn't feel like politics. It feels like a college student out of freshman year who comes home and thinks that they can fix everyone's problems with one good exposition on bigger ideas, then gets confused by how unreasonable everyone inexplicably is.

You still haven't said anything I would argue is outright impossible to arrange by some means. It's just that the means you're using to get these results are very unconvincing. Everything is unidirectional, everyone important sees reason, all deals cut are not just good but made for good reasons. When does history work like this? How can this be so much easier than building the EU or NAFTA or any other free trade agreement I know of?
 
Admiral, this kinda comes out of left field. There is so much stuff unresolved, so many potential triggers for strife, internal and external, in and between so many countries that I don't even know where to begin.

I think Beer might surprise you. His previous TL (Chrysanthemum) wasn't all sunshine and roses (or chrysanthemums :D) either. There was lots of conflict, lots of misunderstandings and people just being, well people.

Contrary to appearances, problems and conflicts in history WERE often solved with reason and people not being dicks. Look at Germany in the interbellum years. Briand and Stresemann. Need I say more?
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

@Admiral Matt
First, this TL will have enough of conflict and all that. There are enough seeds already sown and the conflicts already cooking at that time. I always look for plausibility!
I beg your pardon, but you seem to look at it too much from the US system, were fillibustering and all or nothing desicions are far more common than in Europe. Even long before the Federal Republic in Germany search for a consensus or compromises with which both sides cuold live, were the preferred method. Actually in most of Europe, esp. Scandinavia. And still there was a ton of strife over the centuries! As Jotun already said, a lot of problems over time were solved by people being reasonable and not being a....
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Admiral, this kinda comes out of left field. There is so much stuff unresolved, so many potential triggers for strife, internal and external, in and between so many countries that I don't even know where to begin.

I think Beer might surprise you. His previous TL (Chrysanthemum) wasn't all sunshine and roses (or chrysanthemums :D) either. There was lots of conflict, lots of misunderstandings and people just being, well people.

Contrary to appearances, problems and conflicts in history WERE often solved with reason and people not being dicks. Look at Germany in the interbellum years. Briand and Stresemann. Need I say more?

Well, they did do good work preventing Hitler's rise to power. ;)

But, believe it or not, this actually is my reserving-judgement face.

The quoted post is packed full of all those qualifiers for a reason. I'm waiting and watching.

The fact is though, this is a wank. And that's okay. It'll result in enormous benefits for Germany, Japan, probably Austria, and maybe to an extent most of the world. There's nothing wrong with that, either. But look at the real world's wanks: the Arabs, the Spanish, the British, the Americans, arguably Portugal and Japan and Singapore and Canada and Qatar at different times. All the countries that have pulled off much more with fewer problems than their peers and contemporaries did so despite people being constantly at cross purposes, constantly doing actively the wrong thing or the right thing for reprehensible reasons or out of necessity.

If there was one or two great flukes of reasonable decision making, I'd point it out and leave it be. Stranger things happen. But so far there's been: the German delegation, the Shogun, the Japanese Emperor, the Zollverein (twice), and the Austrian Emperor more or less choosing or tolerating dramatic shift in policy not only in the ideal way, but also with honest intent to make the best of this. It seems to be the TL's bread and butter, with opposition left to minorities of clueless reactionaries and their ignorant followers.

If you're right, I'll be happy to concede. But so far he's written only this, and I've read only this, so here we are.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi

@Admiral Matt
If you really believe this is going to be a wank, you do not know me at all. I just show some really positive developments now, as I will show truly negative developments over the time. We have over 150 years to go. as for the Austrian Emperor: If you travel to Vienna, I´d hint at the Österreichisches Staatsarchiv in the Nottendorfer Gasse, where for a few Euros you can research quite a bit of stuff. And there you can find out that the Austrian policy about the German Confederation was a ping-pong between von Biegeleben and von Rechberg for years. In OTL the events helped von Biegeleben to influence it to his liking, here in ATL the changes help von Rechberg at the moment.
 
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Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Hi!

@Admiral Matt
First, this TL will have enough of conflict and all that. There are enough seeds already sown and the conflicts already cooking at that time. I always look for plausibility!
I beg your pardon, but you seem to look at it too much from the US system, were fillibustering and all or nothing desicions are far more common than in Europe. Even long before the Federal Republic in Germany search for a consensus or compromises with which both sides cuold live, were the preferred method. Actually in most of Europe, esp. Scandinavia. And still there was a ton of strife over the centuries! As Jotun already said, a lot of problems over time were solved by people being reasonable and not being a....

Your presupposition is incorrect. Honestly I'm more familiar in research terms with the nature of politicking outside of the US, and the largest part of that is early-modern European history. Though obviously as an American I know the fundamentals and a lot of names and dates. It sounds as if you're projecting the current American logjam slightly onto your read of the country's history as a whole, but that's neither here nor there.

If you want to know what I actually mean, the alternate Europes I've read that most closely fits the historic facts are that of carlton_bach's Germanwank and EdT's works. The former shows the problems, and without suddenly altering business as usual let's them play out in just the right way so that a bright future is assured. The end result will be practically utopian for Europe, but the author takes you there step by step.

Your scenario on the other hand, so far feels more American than European to me, if anything. It implies everything was pretty much okay, and if only someone had just made the one intelligent suggestion, everyone who mattered would see the wisdom and want to support it.

Of course the real reason we're still arguing is the shortage of the ever critical this-almost-happened-in-OTL, which may be just your style, not an issue of your knowledge or plan.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Hi

@Admiral Matt
If you really believe this is going to be a wank, you do not know me at all. I just show some really positive developments now, as I will show truly negative developments over the time. We have over 150 years to go. as for the Austrian Emperor: If you travel to Vienna, I´d hint at the Österreichisches Staatsarchiv in the Nottendorfer Gasse, where for a few Euros you can research quite a bit of stuff. And there you can find out that the Austrian policy about the German Confederation was a ping-pong between von Biegeleben and von Rechberg for years. In OTL the events helped von Biegeleben to influence it to his liking, here in ATL the changes help von Rechberg at the moment.

Ah, you're using the old definition of wank, in which unreasonable self-gratification is implicit. Rest-assured I do not think that of you for a second.

And the above is exactly what I needed spelled out regarding the Austrian's current course, thank you.
 

Beer

Banned
It implies everything was pretty much okay, and if only someone had just made the one intelligent suggestion, everyone who mattered would see the wisdom and want to support it.
Hi!
This viewpoint of yours is incorrect on that. That Era, like most times on Earth was a mikado of differing interests, wants, etc. if you know this Era as well as you say, you know it already.
Putting von Schmoller there making his suggestion works only because of the general situation at that point. It pulls a different lever, but the framework stays the same. A lot of what happened up to now ATL in necessity-driven and a convoluted mixture of prestige, opportunism and a shot of wisdom by some.
The opposition to that does not magically go puff overnight. Do you truly believe e.g. a guy like Matsusaida gives up without fighting for his convictions? Or von Biegeleben just sitting in a chair, drinking a wine until von Rechberg comes back? We are roughly just a year (if we count from the moment Schmoller becomes part of the Eulenburg expedition) into the ATL!
 
I find the Austrian reaction quite believable. This is close enough to the debacle of Solferino, the only time uniform- and army-mad FJI commanded himself, that he won't be so keen for war. His brother Maximilian will also be strongly lobbying for something in that direction. It's just that, OTL, Austria always picked the worst of choices in hindsight, or the right ones too late, but with a slight shift in the factions at court it could have easily gone another way.
 
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