Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel -German Unification in the 1860s
- Thread starter Beer
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Can we eventually have a three way alliance going on? With Germany and Japan on the first side, Russia on the second and Britain on the third?
Beer
Banned
Hi!
I must say, I am happily surprised and impressed at the comments up to now! A lot of good stuff and farsight in them.
To your questions
America: The US Civil War will happen. At that moment in time the Germans and Japanese deciding on a "Kampai onii-chan!" moment, does not change the already burning fuse in North America. In some decades ATL this will have impact, but for a time events in the US, Canada are not changed by the Edo-Treaty.
Pacific: Germany had New-Guinea only for a relative short time and back then several modern research methods were not even invented. But ATL the situation in the Pacific will change more profundly than in the other oceans. Germany does not only need her "coaling colonies", the Japanese will come out to play earlier and now holding something in the Pacific makes more sense for Berlin than OTL. No nation back then could know how really resource rich some Pacific Islands are, but it makes sense beyond prestige to go there.
Channesl: The Suez is already in greenlighted, still ATL the german states will be much more involved in Channel building. e.g. the Kiel Channel will be build earlier as well. And there might be one or two more surprises in the bag for you readers.
Russia. The coming Germany has two optoins: either keep GB close, which will help keep the sealanes open or helping St. Petersburg, which can reap other benefits. Berlin is behind the 8-ball concerning Russia. A lot will depend on if Germany can channel the russian expansion drive to the liking of Berlin and Tokyo.
Japanese Clans/German States: Oh yes, both the end of the bakufu and the german unification will be very different ATL. What will be nearly more interesting is the cultural impact of that, not only for D and J, but for some other lands as well, being touched by the butterflies.
I must say, I am happily surprised and impressed at the comments up to now! A lot of good stuff and farsight in them.
To your questions
America: The US Civil War will happen. At that moment in time the Germans and Japanese deciding on a "Kampai onii-chan!" moment, does not change the already burning fuse in North America. In some decades ATL this will have impact, but for a time events in the US, Canada are not changed by the Edo-Treaty.
Pacific: Germany had New-Guinea only for a relative short time and back then several modern research methods were not even invented. But ATL the situation in the Pacific will change more profundly than in the other oceans. Germany does not only need her "coaling colonies", the Japanese will come out to play earlier and now holding something in the Pacific makes more sense for Berlin than OTL. No nation back then could know how really resource rich some Pacific Islands are, but it makes sense beyond prestige to go there.
Channesl: The Suez is already in greenlighted, still ATL the german states will be much more involved in Channel building. e.g. the Kiel Channel will be build earlier as well. And there might be one or two more surprises in the bag for you readers.
Russia. The coming Germany has two optoins: either keep GB close, which will help keep the sealanes open or helping St. Petersburg, which can reap other benefits. Berlin is behind the 8-ball concerning Russia. A lot will depend on if Germany can channel the russian expansion drive to the liking of Berlin and Tokyo.
Japanese Clans/German States: Oh yes, both the end of the bakufu and the german unification will be very different ATL. What will be nearly more interesting is the cultural impact of that, not only for D and J, but for some other lands as well, being touched by the butterflies.
Beer
Banned
Hi!Hey, look, I stumbled over another Beer-timeline!
Looks very interesting so far, though the PoD might seem a bit too visionary. Definitely looking forward to more, though.
- Kelenas
It is less visionary, when we look at the unique combination of factors. An instable Japan on the search for a better tomorrow, now we put a guy into the mix who got ennobled for his economic acumen and was brave enough to torpedo his career once knowingly, in the delegation of a Prusia searching for a way to unification.
As for the vision: Und hier wandere ich dem Horizont entgegen, das Abendrot wird mir die Morgenröte einer glänzenden Zukunft sein.
P.S. My god, I get all lyrical this evening.
Germany also had the northern Solomon Islands, western Samoa and Micronesia, although none of them for very long.
German Samoa would seem inevitable in TTL - there were already German commercial interests there before the POD, and it would make a good halfway point between South America and Japan. I'd guess that it would happen earlier, maybe in the 1870s or even the later 1860s rather than 1900. Also, if the Spanish Pacific empire falls apart, Germany and Japan would be the naturals to pick up the Micronesian islands - in OTL, they governed Micronesia in turn, maybe in TTL they would do so together!
Beyond that, I'm not sure. New Guinea and the Solomons would be marginal - maybe Germany wouldn't bother with them in TTL given its other holdings. Hawaii is an interesting possibility, though. It was still an independent kingdom at this point, and although American influence was already strong in 1860, it wasn't as overwhelming as it would become later. Germans, and with their backing Japanese, might have a chance to buy plantation land and set up mercantile interests. (Now I'm imagining Togolese contract laborers joining the Hawaiian ethnic stewpot - granted, TTL's Germany might never pick up Togo, but a substantial African influence in Hawaii to add to the Asian, European and Polynesian cultures that exist in OTL would be amazingly cool.)
Also, a Qingdao-like holding on the coast of China?
The Tenno's reaction in the second update is interesting - I guess there will be no "revere the Emperor, expel the barbarians" in TTL. The hardcore anti-foreigner faction will still exist, though, and will find a leader somewhere, so I suspect the later 1860s will be a time of rebellion in Japan as it was in OTL.
And with rice coming to Germany, can smoked salmon sushi be far behind?
Admiral Matt
Gone Fishin'
Eh.... I dunno.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all in favor of you playing this out, but I think you're far overestimating the acceptance of this by all parties.
So one guy doesn't mind killing his career. He has the authority to impose 20 million new members on a diverse set of sovereign nation states? No one at home needs to ratify this, or everyone comes around to it's utility?
And in Japan, I think you're slightly overstating the comprehension of the economics of this, and far understating the cultural reaction. I was very surprised to see your portrayal of the emperor for this reason - I was expecting him to agree purely on the basis of thinking the Shogun was digging his own grave. And I was taken aback by the lack of mention of the fact that by sending money in any form to Berlin (which is one small part of how this works, yes?), the Tenno is implicitly declaring himself a vassal of foreigners.
Why on earth would these people's first thought be money? Their country is pulling apart at the seams as foreigners force their way in, and no matter how consensual this treaty is, there's no getting around the fact that even most richer samurai-on-the-street are going to perceive annexing Japan to a foreign federation as more intrusive and humiliating than the treaties before it. That's not how it is, sure.
But why would how it is matter?
Beer
Banned
Hi Admiral!
I have some access to japanese sources via japanese friends of mine. This would be a good point to say a big thank you to Michiko, Sakako, Takumi, Hikaru and others of their friends for that. (esp. since my Japanese is not good enough for now to truly understand some of the old stuff)
Despite all up and downs over the years, there was some kind of connection between Germans and Japanese from the start. That is an important point in all that. It can function ATL because of this basic connection. It would not go the same with another nation. As there are possible other ATLs where specific event/things can start only because a basic connection the e.g. French share with their special friends or the British do.
Don´t get it the wrong way, but how do you come to the conclusions why the Germans and the Japanese do this from just the first two parts?
Yes, Schmoller proposed it and I mentioned it already in ATL text that the national governments back home have to ratify it. But that will go smooth because of the general situation, not because of great visions. The Eulenburg expedition was done by Prussia explicitly to further her ambitions in Germany and the world. Schmoller´s self-initiative gives them that, a diplomatic victory Austria will not be able to counter soon, if ever and the economic side does not hurt either. Schmoller and the very influential von Delbrück were VERY able economs and esp. can communicate to others the possibilities of this new treaty. You underestimate von Delbrück´s standing in the whole Zollverein and the Prussian was an early fan of far trade. Had the ATL situation happened OTL, von Delbrück would have championed it too, that is clear from the documents on him and his personality.
As for the medium german states, I took Baden as an example, because there are old documents existing, where landlocked Baden deeply hopes to find a way to the larger world markets. This ATL treaty gives them that, if they ratify it. They won´t be totally pleased at first, but this thing is what they yearned for their wildly budding industry.
As for Japan: Tenno Komei was no idiot. Getting rid of the Tokugawa was his main goal, but he knew that his land needed to rise fast, before the foreigners cashed them in as a colony. The ATL Germans proposal will help saving Japan from that fate. Feuds are one thing, Nippon is a different matter. And the Tenno met the german delegation in Edo, so he has some first image of them. As for the truly anti-foreigner: Mori´s reaction is just a placeholder/example how some groups will react.
As for the Zollverein: Please read the OTL treaty, if your German is up to it. The Zollverein and vassalisation are two very different kind of shoes. That the Zollverein incomes are sent to Berlin is simply because the main regulatory office is in Berlin, where the net gains for each member are calculated and then sent back to the various capitals. All member states have their representatives in Berlin.
I have some access to japanese sources via japanese friends of mine. This would be a good point to say a big thank you to Michiko, Sakako, Takumi, Hikaru and others of their friends for that. (esp. since my Japanese is not good enough for now to truly understand some of the old stuff)
Despite all up and downs over the years, there was some kind of connection between Germans and Japanese from the start. That is an important point in all that. It can function ATL because of this basic connection. It would not go the same with another nation. As there are possible other ATLs where specific event/things can start only because a basic connection the e.g. French share with their special friends or the British do.
Don´t get it the wrong way, but how do you come to the conclusions why the Germans and the Japanese do this from just the first two parts?
Yes, Schmoller proposed it and I mentioned it already in ATL text that the national governments back home have to ratify it. But that will go smooth because of the general situation, not because of great visions. The Eulenburg expedition was done by Prussia explicitly to further her ambitions in Germany and the world. Schmoller´s self-initiative gives them that, a diplomatic victory Austria will not be able to counter soon, if ever and the economic side does not hurt either. Schmoller and the very influential von Delbrück were VERY able economs and esp. can communicate to others the possibilities of this new treaty. You underestimate von Delbrück´s standing in the whole Zollverein and the Prussian was an early fan of far trade. Had the ATL situation happened OTL, von Delbrück would have championed it too, that is clear from the documents on him and his personality.
As for the medium german states, I took Baden as an example, because there are old documents existing, where landlocked Baden deeply hopes to find a way to the larger world markets. This ATL treaty gives them that, if they ratify it. They won´t be totally pleased at first, but this thing is what they yearned for their wildly budding industry.
As for Japan: Tenno Komei was no idiot. Getting rid of the Tokugawa was his main goal, but he knew that his land needed to rise fast, before the foreigners cashed them in as a colony. The ATL Germans proposal will help saving Japan from that fate. Feuds are one thing, Nippon is a different matter. And the Tenno met the german delegation in Edo, so he has some first image of them. As for the truly anti-foreigner: Mori´s reaction is just a placeholder/example how some groups will react.
As for the Zollverein: Please read the OTL treaty, if your German is up to it. The Zollverein and vassalisation are two very different kind of shoes. That the Zollverein incomes are sent to Berlin is simply because the main regulatory office is in Berlin, where the net gains for each member are calculated and then sent back to the various capitals. All member states have their representatives in Berlin.
Beer
Banned
Hi J. Edelstein!
Samoa: You are right on track with your predictions. Samoa got even more important ATL now.
New Guinea/Hawaii: NG is 50/50 for now, depending on how the plausability changes with the coming events. I simulate atm various colonial partings of the ATL world and how they affect (and are affected) by the events.
Hawii is an interesting idea. Have to investigate into such a situation and the possibilty for that.
Tsingtau/Quingdao: Highly unlikely, ATL Germany has no need for that. For coaling purposes it would have to be in southern China, rather close to Hongkong. Buying an island of the Philipines would be cheaper and easier on the relations to London. For trade into China, Germany can go in via Japan.
Japan: To change your sentence: "revere the Tenno´s sharp mind, expel some foreigners"
Samoa: You are right on track with your predictions. Samoa got even more important ATL now.
New Guinea/Hawaii: NG is 50/50 for now, depending on how the plausability changes with the coming events. I simulate atm various colonial partings of the ATL world and how they affect (and are affected) by the events.
Hawii is an interesting idea. Have to investigate into such a situation and the possibilty for that.
Tsingtau/Quingdao: Highly unlikely, ATL Germany has no need for that. For coaling purposes it would have to be in southern China, rather close to Hongkong. Buying an island of the Philipines would be cheaper and easier on the relations to London. For trade into China, Germany can go in via Japan.
Japan: To change your sentence: "revere the Tenno´s sharp mind, expel some foreigners"
Tyr Anazasi
Banned
New Guinea is needed if you come from Africa. It is the first "free" land to grab as Indonesia is a Dutch colony and Australia a British one. If one could buy Bali or so it would be another matter. But then still New Guinea is bigger and thus not so easy to conquer as well, if one wanted to defend (it is not totally known, but a German officer did resist the British there for years conducting his own small guerilla war there).
In any way now Germany/Japan have really an interest in the Philippines. It would be interesting to see, if the Germans bought the islands just at the moment of the US DoW on Spain, given this is not butterflied away.
"To Rear Admiral Dewey,
You're blockading a German port. I order you to stop doing so and to retreat within 24 hours.
signed Vice-Admiral v. Diederichs"
In any way now Germany/Japan have really an interest in the Philippines. It would be interesting to see, if the Germans bought the islands just at the moment of the US DoW on Spain, given this is not butterflied away.
"To Rear Admiral Dewey,
You're blockading a German port. I order you to stop doing so and to retreat within 24 hours.
signed Vice-Admiral v. Diederichs"
Admiral Matt
Gone Fishin'
For clarity's sake, I'll say again again I'm not arguing because I refuse to accept the possibility. Its a great idea and I want this to play out. What I'm bugging you over the fact that this doesn't feel real yet, but you seem to have done a lot of research and thus can probably change that if pressed. Since its well out of my own area of expertise, it's about all I can be useful for beyond back-patting (which I am also happy to provide).
Okay. Details - even anecdotes - are more powerful than name dropping though. You've already provided quite a few, of course.
I haven't come to those conclusions. I'm extrapolating based on the first two parts and side comments that you might not justify your foundational in detail - the first two were quite brief. I would rather offer criticism before than after, because some authors lose momentum if you do too much of the latter as they're starting.
Just so long as you make it clear to us, I have no objections. Berlin could dictate membership? The minor states would appreciate the value of markets obtained in such a non-colonial fashion in the period?
The vast majority of the United States government, in today's much more economically literate era, is composed of non-idiots as well. Yet U.S. policy and law routinely deviates from any financial logic, and arguably even more frequently diverges from rational national interest. Because that's just what politicians do.
I'll just quote myself:
China's vassals often had a man or embassy in the capital. China regularly sent subsidies to it's vassals, but of course they still needed to send tribute. Often the relationship secured by submission to China involved trade.
An absurd minority in the U.S. are still convinced the U.N. is going to take over / already has. Contemporary Europeans didn't think like us. Certainly the Japanese didn't.
My German isn't up to it. But I'm seeing the Wikipedian version as of this writing.
Okay. Details - even anecdotes - are more powerful than name dropping though. You've already provided quite a few, of course.
I haven't come to those conclusions. I'm extrapolating based on the first two parts and side comments that you might not justify your foundational in detail - the first two were quite brief. I would rather offer criticism before than after, because some authors lose momentum if you do too much of the latter as they're starting.
Just so long as you make it clear to us, I have no objections. Berlin could dictate membership? The minor states would appreciate the value of markets obtained in such a non-colonial fashion in the period?
The vast majority of the United States government, in today's much more economically literate era, is composed of non-idiots as well. Yet U.S. policy and law routinely deviates from any financial logic, and arguably even more frequently diverges from rational national interest. Because that's just what politicians do.
I'll just quote myself:
China's vassals often had a man or embassy in the capital. China regularly sent subsidies to it's vassals, but of course they still needed to send tribute. Often the relationship secured by submission to China involved trade.
An absurd minority in the U.S. are still convinced the U.N. is going to take over / already has. Contemporary Europeans didn't think like us. Certainly the Japanese didn't.
My German isn't up to it. But I'm seeing the Wikipedian version as of this writing.
Dutch control over the outlying parts of Indonesia wasn't very firm in the 1860s - some islands weren't brought into the empire until the 20th century. It wouldn't be too hard for Germany to find an island or part of one that it could make into the equivalent of East Timor.
The Philippines - hmmm. Maybe the Germans and Japanese could support the nationalist insurgency in the hope of creating a client state which would give them basing rights. If they try to make the Philippines into an outright colony, they'd be letting themselves in for years of guerrilla warfare.
Beer
Banned
@all readers
I try to post a new chapter late this evening, but it could become tomorrow.
@Admiral Matt
If my scanner would function correctly (I have to buy a new one in the not too far future, it did me a great service for years, but now everything comes out with a lot of graphic mistakes or totally unusable), I would send excerpts and notes, if you need that proof to believe me. I have enough in stock. If you can get translations, I would point out esp. the two "Ferne Gefährten" books as a basis and for a fast reading here is a link. http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/5037023-germans-still-have-a-positive-image-of-japan
It is a condensed article of a report how Germans see Japan today, despite all the ups and downs over the time.
Naturally did the people back then think vastly different than today. In a way, they are more alien in thinking than some xenos in scifi books! But basic sympathies develop, despite way of thinking. Every nation/people has some nations/people they click better with than most others.
I try to post a new chapter late this evening, but it could become tomorrow.
@Admiral Matt
If my scanner would function correctly (I have to buy a new one in the not too far future, it did me a great service for years, but now everything comes out with a lot of graphic mistakes or totally unusable), I would send excerpts and notes, if you need that proof to believe me. I have enough in stock. If you can get translations, I would point out esp. the two "Ferne Gefährten" books as a basis and for a fast reading here is a link. http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/5037023-germans-still-have-a-positive-image-of-japan
It is a condensed article of a report how Germans see Japan today, despite all the ups and downs over the time.
Naturally did the people back then think vastly different than today. In a way, they are more alien in thinking than some xenos in scifi books! But basic sympathies develop, despite way of thinking. Every nation/people has some nations/people they click better with than most others.
I think Aceh would be a good choice here, as it held out against the Dutch for forty years, off and on. Germany (and Japan) would be able to bring more force to bear more quickly than the Dutch could, I would think. This could have knock-on effects on Indonesia, as the Aceh War was a major drain on the colonial budget.
Britain would probably see German Aceh as a threat to Malaya and its hold on the Straights, as well.
Aceh would indeed be perfect for the Germans and the Japanese. But it's difficult to think of something that pisses Britain off more.
Admiral Matt has some good points. For general perception of the treaty it would be easiest if Japan does not join the Zollverein, but makes a treaty that ends all tariffs between Japan and either Zollverein member.
Furthermore, I think it's necessary to detail out a bit how the trade between these two countries really benefits to this great foreshadowed extent.
A cooperative colonial policy that involves developping the colonies and that might encompass the Philippines might do it. Technological transfer and cooperation might contribute, especially in education. Jointly investing in Russia could contribute, as would jointly investing in China.
Admiral Matt has some good points. For general perception of the treaty it would be easiest if Japan does not join the Zollverein, but makes a treaty that ends all tariffs between Japan and either Zollverein member.
Furthermore, I think it's necessary to detail out a bit how the trade between these two countries really benefits to this great foreshadowed extent.
A cooperative colonial policy that involves developping the colonies and that might encompass the Philippines might do it. Technological transfer and cooperation might contribute, especially in education. Jointly investing in Russia could contribute, as would jointly investing in China.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
How is a joint investment venture in Russia going to help Germany and Japan, considering the fact that Russia is their potential rival? And will the Philippines still end up under American control, or will US economical activity in the Asia-Pacific region be severely curtailed by the German-Japanese ventures?
I'm not sure about German Aceh, as cool as it sounds. Without naval animosity with Britain even, that would certainly antagonize the Dutch either way. And why should they ? They were dynastically tied, with Netherlands being pretty much a willing client. Why would they want to cast that aside for a South East Asian Afghanistan that won't be very defendable ?
Sabah/North Borneo seems a better bet. And rather easier to get, too.
Sabah/North Borneo seems a better bet. And rather easier to get, too.
katchen
Banned
A joint investment in Russia is an excellent way of making sure that Russia DOSEN"T become the rival of Japan and the German Zollverein. Over the course of the 19th and 20th Century, Great Britain and later the United States have put a lot of energy into manipulating events so that Russia and Germany ARE rivals and enemies and stay that way. And they both experience a great deal of angst when Germany has rapproachments with Russia and any blocs that Russia is a member of.
Germany supports Russia to roll back China's taking of Liaotung Peninsula after Sino-Japanese War of 1895 OTL. Britain allies with Japan in 1901. By 1904, Great Britain is allied with both Russia AND Japan despite their being at war with each other. And allied with Russia against Germany. And with France against Germany. And after WWII with Germany against Russia in NATO.
Both the British and the Americans show dismay at Willy Brandt's Ostopolitk and especially at Russia's deal with Germany to export natural gas to Germany. Which sets up the current conflict in which Russia builds Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines direct to Europe (Nord Stream under the Baltic direct to Germany and the US argues in favor of pipelines from the former Soviet Republics of Azerbijan, Turkomanistan --and Saudi Arabia--Nabucco. Some say that the current struggle in the Middle East is all about rival pipelines between Iran via Russia and Syria vs Saudi Arabia via Syria and Turkey. In both cases, German depandence on or investment in Russia gives the US Government fits. So what else is new?
Of course the British will try to get between Japan, Russia and the Germanies. Especially since the British just fought the Crimean War to keep Russia in line.
What I would do if I were the British at this point in time---would be to try to break up the Zollverein.
Germany supports Russia to roll back China's taking of Liaotung Peninsula after Sino-Japanese War of 1895 OTL. Britain allies with Japan in 1901. By 1904, Great Britain is allied with both Russia AND Japan despite their being at war with each other. And allied with Russia against Germany. And with France against Germany. And after WWII with Germany against Russia in NATO.
Both the British and the Americans show dismay at Willy Brandt's Ostopolitk and especially at Russia's deal with Germany to export natural gas to Germany. Which sets up the current conflict in which Russia builds Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines direct to Europe (Nord Stream under the Baltic direct to Germany and the US argues in favor of pipelines from the former Soviet Republics of Azerbijan, Turkomanistan --and Saudi Arabia--Nabucco. Some say that the current struggle in the Middle East is all about rival pipelines between Iran via Russia and Syria vs Saudi Arabia via Syria and Turkey. In both cases, German depandence on or investment in Russia gives the US Government fits. So what else is new?
Of course the British will try to get between Japan, Russia and the Germanies. Especially since the British just fought the Crimean War to keep Russia in line.
What I would do if I were the British at this point in time---would be to try to break up the Zollverein.