Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel -German Unification in the 1860s

[Monty Burns]

In OTL the British (and Prince Adalbert) tried to convince Bismarck to get large chunks of the French fleet as well. Bismarck, who knew Germany had no men to crew them, declined. Here the fleet might be a bit bigger.

Germany here needs a cruiser fleet and a battle fleet large enough to keep the French (and Russians perhaps) at bay. The problem is, in how far Britain will see that as threat... If Fashoda and the great game happen, Britain would use both as Allies agaist the French. The problem is the point, in which Germany is detected rightfully as main rival...

The Weyer Fleet almanach of 1914 is a good source for some bachround infomation. In it the duality between Japan and USA in the Far East is already described. We will have to see what will happen here.

As for colonies: DSWA, DOA, Deutsch-Neuguinea, Togo, perhaps Cameroon as well. Why? There should be three ways to Japan. One via America. Here no colony can be acquired (perhaps some Virgin islands). Africa is another thing. Here you need two routes, one via Suez, the other via Cape of Good Hope. If you want DSWA you need also stations before. Here Togo, Cameroon and Congo could be acquired. In the east you could acquire everything from Somalia to Mosambique. Here another colony is needed as well.

India is Britain's playground, but New Guinea and the Solomon islands could be acquired. And then you're there.

Another thing to consider: Japan lacks raw materials. German colonies could supply them. If the Zollverein holds, Japanese companies could invest directly in German colonies for raw materials, and for them it could be more profitable than for Germans, particularly in New Guinea, but possibly also in Tansania.

In any case, if Hokkaido becomes a big success, there is a clear incentive for the Germans to repeat it, and failing with Namibia takes a lot of time and doesn't mean it wouldn't work somewhere else, thus I doubt that yet a single failure would limit German colonialism. On the other side, as already said, the Germans need to secure their trade lines. For that they need more colonies than IOTL.

 

[EvolvedSaurian]

Well, this is a fascinating idea. I can think of two things that I haven't seen anyone bring up yet. One would be possible Japanese settlement of German colonies besides Hokkaido, such as Tanganyika, and maybe Namibia and New Guinea. This could help those colonies be less burdensome to this Germany, and could have fun social-cultural effects as well. Second, possible membership of Oranje and Transvaal in the Zollverein, although that would obviously cause an issue with Britain.

 

[Beer]

Hi!

@Hörnla, Monty, all others
Very thought through posts, thank you!

Colonies: In OTL Germany for various reasons considered herself a latecomer on the stage, so one should be competitition everywhere. Unofficially even the Alldeutschen were not so keen on useless colonies, even if offically the line was: "Colonies YEAH!"
My point on less colonies beside the "coaling ones" is because of the steep difference between Hokkaido and DSWA. In OTL, the Colonies were mostly money-graves (not only for Germany, even most british Colonies were nothing special, but if you control parcels like India the bill gets even or better). For Germany, Togoland and at some times DOA and Kamerun were profitable, but all was in a small band of up and down. Now ATL, building up Hokkaido with the Japanese will after a time produce a nicely profitable colony, which will be a crass counterpoint to e.g. DSWA. The difference in costs/benefits is simply so obvious that it cannot be hidden, unlike OTL. And more, this ATL Germany is at the end of the 19th century already far more used to take away a nice profit from her outside investments than her OTL counterpart was.

Japan and the Zollverein: I do not hope for wonders. For this TL I even roughly calculated the prices for various products and foodstuff. And at that time in history, trade was done different. There were open and secret tolls, economic conflicts, etc.
At first rice, other food and art handicraft will be sailing to Europe. Today you can just shake your head, what was possible back then with all the open and hidden costs.
With Japan in the Zollverein a first big import will be rice, which not only will help the food situation in Germany generally, but states like Oldenburg who can buy from ship directly, could even sell rice to other european nations with a profit. When you read the stipulations of the OTL Zollverein treaty and know a bit about economy, it is very easy to see, what a big help and growing together for the industry that was.
What you see quite correct is that parts of Asia will pay the price of the rapid rise of Germany and Japan as industry nations.

Anglo-German conflict: It will depend a lot if the partly different personal in London will recognize that the US is the main rival on the oceans, not Germany.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

The colonies were going to come profitable. Togo and Samoa were, DOA and Cameroon would soon had become so in 1914.

About the US: I think it is UK's biggest blunder to ally with the greatest rival and make him big. I once read about a discussion between FDR and his son just saying similar things.

 

[Detlef]

Colonies

Well, in OTL Bismarck opposed colonies. So most German colonies were initially acquired by private colonial companies if I remember correctly. With official German military protection thrown in.
It was only when - one after the other - the colonial companies went bankrupt that Germany took over the administration of the colonies. Which explains a lot of the early "mistakes". It took until 1907 till the "Reichskolonialamt" (Imperial Colonial Office) took over all responsibilities for the colonies. Before that you´ve got the Chancellor, the foreign ministry and the military all fighting for influence in the colonies.

In this TL with an early Hokkaido colony they´ll get the much needed experience a lot earlier. It might help them to judge new colonial proposals a bit more critically? Does it make sense? Politically, economically, militarily?
Not to mention that quite a bit of the private money thrown in OTL at the African colonial companies might already be invested in profitable Hokkaido? Leaving less for African adventures?

Additional colonies / coaling stations:

That really depends on the political situation.
Quite simply put the British isles block the German ports. Gibraltar and Alexandria block the Austrian ports.
So if the British stay friendly or neutral you don´t need any coaling stations. If they are an enemy you don´t need coaling stations for peace time trade. You need coaling stations for cruiser warfare. With maybe a few naval bases thrown in for minor repairs?

In that case islands might be an answer?
Buy some islands from Spain or Portugal? Instead of money reparations after a war demand some islands from Denmark or France?
(The Monroe doctrine only forbids new European colonies in the Americas as I understand it. It says nothing about a transfer of ownership of an existing island colony.)
The Japanese in cooperation with the Germans certainly would be interested in the OTL German Pacific islands possessions.

We discussed that a bit in BlondieBC´s TL "Prince Henry of Prussia: The Rise of U-Boat".
Essentially we divided naval bases into three classes. From expensive to cheap.
#1 major naval base: located in a secure environment, able to build / repair all classes of ships (think Wilhelmshafen or Kiel for Germany. In this TL possibly Hokkaido / Japan.). Think dry docks and slips and heavy industry close by.
#2 naval base in the colonies. Adequate coastal defense (guns and mines). Minor repair and building capacities. A large enough colony to support a military and civilian population to make conquering them a costly undertaking. As in, not possible by colony troops but needing several divisions of regular troops in a war.
#3 island naval base. Some gun and mine defenses. Mainly a supply base. If blockaded long enough and invaded they´ll have to surrender.

Essentially, first class naval bases in Germany, Austria and Japan / Hokkaido? A few second class naval bases in Africa and the Pacific Ocean? Plus additional third class bases on islands around the world?

 

[katchen]

Let's not forget that we're not (or we shouldn't be ) just talking about Ezo (Hokkaido). Ezo must include Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands as well. With Germany in on the game, Japan can retain both.
And if the Germans had been to the Far East just a year or two earlier, they could have stopped the Russians from getting the territory between the Amur and the Ussuri River from China and made sure that the Amur was considered an international waterway. As it is, they can ask for and probably get a concession from China for a Hong Kong like territory on the Tumen River above the Russian-Korean border, defining the stretch of the Tumen below it as international waters (the Chinese are trying to develop an economic zone there OTL).
As for coaling stations, it dosen't matter so much who claims and discovers uninhabited res nullius land as who actually makes use of it first. First possession is nine tenths of international law, especially in the 19th Century. If the German-Japanese co-dominium establish coaling stations, say on South Georgia, Kergulen Island, Maquarie Island Campbell Island Kermandec Island and Iwo Jima, if no one else is there, who is to dispute them even if someone else discovered those places first? It's a lot less intrusive than trying to establish colonies in places like Obock (though that can come later).

 

[Detlef]

The colonies were going to come profitable. Togo and Samoa were, DOA and Cameroon would soon had become so in 1914.

I really doubt that.
Yes. Togo in 1913/1914 exported more than it imported. So what?
The trade balance doesn´t include the costs of the German colonial army costs. Or visits by the German navy. What about the costs of the long-range radio transmitter that what just finished before the war started?
The costs of German colonial officials trained, the costs of primary schools and hospitals in the African colonies? The costs of the agricultural schools and research institutes that were just opened a few years before WW1?
The trade balance simply doesn´t include these costs.
It´s even worse for all the other German colonies.

If I remember correctly I discussed that exact point with Blondie BC too.
Seems that a US Congress investigation visited "Entente" Africa in the 1920s if I remember correctly. Their conclusion was that education efforts in the former German colonies - now owned by Entente countries - still haven´t reached the pre-war WW1 German levels.
Meaning that pre-WW1 Germany spend a lot of German tax money on research, training and education. Tax money that wouldn´t be visible if you simply looked at a trade balance.

 

[Trevayne]

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Err, IOTL Germany did try to build a fleet to challenge the Royal Navy. I expect that effort was one of the things that cost them WW1. Has anyone done a TL where Tirpitz dies by accident and the Germans build a cruiser centered fleet that has just enough battleships to match the French? I would expect that with a much smaller fleet, Germany can have a bigger army and stand a better chance in a war with France and Russia, especially since Britain would probably stay out.

IMHO ITL Germany will be far more sensible and try hard to keep the British friendly, or at worst neutral.

I agree that the US was the biggest eventual threat to RN supremacy, but the British recognized that while they could probably beat the Americans at sea, they would inevitably lose Canada. They also recognized that despite some differences, the US and Britain were both trading nations interested in keeping the trade routes clear.

As a result, they made the intelligent decision to avoid war with the US at almost all costs. Since the US was also uninterested in a war with the UK, the British choice didn't cost them much. It also facilitated the Fisher fleet redeployment that was required to match the High Seas Fleet as it developed.

 

[katchen]

The year is 1860. The German Zollverein is on one side of the Eurasian Continent. Japan and Exo-Sakhalin are on the other. The Russian Empire is in between. Time to start thinking about a Transcontinental Eurasian Railroad and keeping good relations with the Russian Empire since building it will take some time, even if use is made of Russia and Siberia's rivers via steamboats to transport building materials to intermediate construction camps.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

The year in 1860 - sure I think we should recall some facts:

Bismarck is not yet Prussian Prime Minister
Relations between Russia and Prussia are quite cordial - Prussia was the only big player that was not opposing Russia during the crimean war (despite "neutrality" Austria put much pressure on Russia and maybe prevented a russian sucess)

I definitely see the possibility of an eary Transsib. Russia just forced the treaty of Aigun securing access to the Pacific.

 

[Admiral Matt]

The year in 1860 - sure I think we should recall some facts:

Bismarck is not yet Prussian Prime Minister
Relations between Russia and Prussia are quite cordial - Prussia was the only big player that was not opposing Russia during the crimean war (despite "neutrality" Austria put much pressure on Russia and maybe prevented a russian sucess)

I definitely see the possibility of an eary Transsib. Russia just forced the treaty of Aigun securing access to the Pacific.

A Russo-Austro-German-Japanese alliance? Based on projecting power into Asia? During the Great Game? Somehow I feel London might be slightly uncomfortable.

 

[Monty Burns]

I really doubt that.
Yes. Togo in 1913/1914 exported more than it imported. So what?
The trade balance doesn´t include the costs of the German colonial army costs. Or visits by the German navy. What about the costs of the long-range radio transmitter that what just finished before the war started?
The costs of German colonial officials trained, the costs of primary schools and hospitals in the African colonies? The costs of the agricultural schools and research institutes that were just opened a few years before WW1?
The trade balance simply doesn´t include these costs.
It´s even worse for all the other German colonies.

If I remember correctly I discussed that exact point with Blondie BC too.
Seems that a US Congress investigation visited "Entente" Africa in the 1920s if I remember correctly. Their conclusion was that education efforts in the former German colonies - now owned by Entente countries - still haven´t reached the pre-war WW1 German levels.
Meaning that pre-WW1 Germany spend a lot of German tax money on research, training and education. Tax money that wouldn´t be visible if you simply looked at a trade balance.

First, the clear majority of "government projects" is not profitable or at least it is hardly possible to estimate how profitable it is.

Second, that doesn't matter now. Colonies where the thing to have at the time. United Germany will be a Great Power, and ITTL it will have far larger interests in oversea trade than IOTL. I doubt that people will question whether colonies are profitable: Germany needs coaling outposts and naval bases, that's a given. And ITTL any colonialist that wants to take over some land will have far more government backing, unlike IOTL.

On the long-term, Bismarck was right: Germany doesn't need colonies. But a Great Power, an industrial powerhouse and a merchant nation - all of which Germany will soon become - will not see this at the time.

 

[Beer]

Hi out there!

Here is an update, hope you like it.

2. Homecoming - foreign affairs top, internal politics so-so


"The treaties with Japan were a foreign policy godsend, which brought us onto the road to unification. But it complicated the Army reforms so much, that it became the reason for my resigning of the Prime Minister post."
Karl Anton von Hohenzollern, shortly after his retirement as prussian Prime Minister

"I was very displeased when the new Prime Minister to be was Bismarck. His reputation as an Arc-conservative was not seen as a good sign. And the beginning speeches of him seemed to reaffirm this notion. I remember his Iron and Blood speech. We feared the worst for liberalism, until the latter part of that speech. His or his advisors ideas on trade let him turn the curve. We never thought that he was willing to cooperate with us before."
Heinrich von Treitschke, member of the liberal block in the prussian Landtag

"It was only during reminiscencing of the old times during a walk in Friedrichruh in 1874, that I recognized that Fortuna helped me on my 'famous' Iron and Blood speech, when I incorporated the part about Trade, Patriotism and the Zollverein. It was the offer of a cooperation to the liberals, but without the last part, it was easy to misunderstand. But luck - luckily - is with the diligent."
Otto von Bismarck, on his early days as prussian PM

"Herrgottssakra, these stuffy Preisn really did it! Who would have thought that? Maria, send a barrel of Kulmbacher Doppelbock to the Eulenburg estates."
Luitpold von Bayern, later Prince-Regent of Bavaria, after reading the friendship treaty

Stettin, Prussia, 2nd February 1861

It was warm for the time of the year, as the SMS Thetis anchored in Stettin´s harbour, the "Leeuwarden" beside her. On the quay a prussian delegation stood ready to greet the crews and passengers of the two ships. Leader of the prussian delegation was prime minister Karl Anton von Hohenzollern, a cousin of the King. The political Berlin was baffled by the ominous and riddled telegram they got from underway, but due to Eulenburg´s renown, they trusted him.
A part of Karl Anton still thought about a mischievous prank by zu Eulenburg, but when he saw the Asians coming partly from Thetis, partly from Leeuwarden, he knew that Eulenburg was neither drunk nor a prankster.
After the official greeting, both delegations entered a reserved train to steam to Berlin. Most of the travel time was spent in dialogue with the Japanese, while Karl Anton and zu Eulenburg, Schmoller and von Brandt discussed the strange turn of events. At last, Karl Anton sighed.
"My dear Friedrich, what you and your colleagues did, is finding a foreign policy gold vein and I trust your economic expectations on Japan. I am sure after a meeting with the representatives of the other states, the japanese delegation will get a first class tour from the North Sea to the Isar. That is not the problem, but..."

"Yes, your Grace?"

"During your absence the internal situation got worse. The army reform is stalemated. Everybody does know that something has to be done, but the how is the divider. Your decision in Edo just added to that. The reform of the armed forces is now even more important and it does not move forward."

Residence of the Tenno, Kyoto, early 1861

"Your Highness, you did what?!"

"You seem surprised, Takachika, is that so unbelievable?"

"How...how could you... the gaijin are all slimy Ronin... they will trick us!"

"Normally I would second that. But you did not meet the doitsu-jin. As far as longnoses go, they are really nice, even if their version of politeness is barbaric. They give it to you straight, which I find distasteful in a way, but people like them are not as treacherous as this America-jin Perry was. He was polite, but spoke untrue words, an arrogant gyu, he was."

"You say it yourself, my lord, the Doitsu are barbaric-"

"I value your input highly, Takachika, but do not turn my words. Their politeness lacks massively, but their honour is untainted. Did you even hear what I said earlier? They could have gotten a treaty far more one-sided, but after being here for a time, they recognized Nippon´s honour and reikon (Soul).
They accepted us as equals with the new treaty, the first gaijin to do so. I spoke with our best economic advisors and their verdict is clear. The Zollverein we are now members off will be a big step out of the prison we build ourselves."

"That may be so, I reserve judgement for later. I still think it is a mistake, especially since the Shogun will reap a lot of political koku for it. We should throw out all the gaijin, they taint the purity of our Islands!"

"It might come to that sooner or later and I see your passion for our ancestral lands clearly. But as Samurai we should measure honour with clear sight. The america-jin or the furansu-jin made it quite clear with their deeds that their words cannot be trusted. The doitsu-jin honour their words."

"For the moment, Tenno-sama. When they come back, I will test them myself and see. If they are as honourable as you say, I will bow to your greater wisdom, if not, they can use the garden..."

 

[Hörnla]

Hi!
@Hörnla, Monty, all others
Very thought through posts, thank you!
(not only for Germany, even most british Colonies were nothing special, but if you control parcels like India the bill gets even or better)

You are welcome. But if Britain, with enough valuable and settle-able colonies, went for remote and unprofitable places, then that's they way to do it.
One word has to be said in defense of such colonizers. In most cases, it wasn't possible to rule out that this or that colony could have been a "jackpot". What if DSW had even more diamonds, e.g?
　

At first rice, other food and art handicraft will be sailing to Europe. Today you can just shake your head, what was possible back then with all the open and hidden costs.
With Japan in the Zollverein a first big import will be rice, which not only will help the food situation in Germany generally, but states like Oldenburg who can buy from ship directly, could even sell rice to other european nations with a profit. When you read the stipulations of the OTL Zollverein treaty and know a bit about economy, it is very easy to see, what a big help and growing together for the industry that was.

Concerning food ex/imports. Isn't Japan again the needier part in that relationship. ;-) However, it would be interesting to have an earlier wide-spread use of rice in the German kitchen.

The tremendous success of the Zollverein cannot be extrapolated fully on this scale. Its original members were not only sitting next to each other, but basically upon each other, their markets being very, very small in most cases. The potential was of course huge, because the situation was so appalling when compared to the unified customs area France, Spain or Britain represented.
As I said, both sides will benefit from it in different ways, but not spectacularly so.

Anglo-German conflict: It will depend a lot if the partly different personal in London will recognize that the US is the main rival on the oceans, not Germany.

Despite "Britain and America being countries separated by a common language", the thing is that American supremacy is just far more agreeable to the British than German one, comparable to the German states rather accepting the Habsburgs or Prussia than France.

It took until 1907 till the "Reichskolonialamt" (Imperial Colonial Office) took over all responsibilities for the colonies. Before that you´ve got the Chancellor, the foreign ministry and the military all fighting for influence in the colonies.
In this TL with an early Hokkaido colony they´ll get the much needed experience a lot earlier. It might help them to judge new colonial proposals a bit more critically? Does it make sense? Politically, economically, militarily?
Not to mention that quite a bit of the private money thrown in OTL at the African colonial companies might already be invested in profitable Hokkaido? Leaving less for African adventures?

1. That is an absolutely valid point. I agree very much that 20years more experience in colonial affairs will be a bonus for all following endeavours.
2. But on the other hand, a booming Hokkaido will only funnel MORE money into colonial endeavours. First of all into Hokkaido, and when the initial high returns normalize a bit, new schemes will arrive. This might lead to private enterprises going into Africa and Asia earlier than around 1884; but a crash of this market might also bring colonial expansion to a halt after this bubble burst.

Colonies where the thing to have at the time. United Germany will be a Great Power, and ITTL it will have far larger interests in oversea trade than IOTL. I doubt that people will question whether colonies are profitable:[...] And ITTL any colonialist that wants to take over some land will have far more government backing, unlike IOTL.
On the long-term, Bismarck was right: Germany doesn't need colonies. But a Great Power, an industrial powerhouse and a merchant nation - all of which Germany will soon become - will not see this at the time.

I agree fully here.

 

[Beer]

You are welcome. But if Britain, with enough valuable and settle-able colonies, went for remote and unprofitable places, then that's they way to do it.
One word has to be said in defense of such colonizers. In most cases, it wasn't possible to rule out that this or that colony could have been a "jackpot". What if DSW had even more diamonds, e.g?

Hello again!
Yes, the german pacific possessions were ressource rich (even if not all was know back then). So some hidden jackpots are possible. More about why I think the german colonial grab ATL will be less down at the other quote.　

Concerning food ex/imports. Isn't Japan again the needier part in that relationship. ;-) However, it would be interesting to have an earlier wide-spread use of rice in the German kitchen.
The tremendous success of the Zollverein cannot be extrapolated fully on this scale. Its original members were not only sitting next to each other, but basically upon each other, their markets being very, very small in most cases. The potential was of course huge, because the situation was so appalling when compared to the unified customs area France, Spain or Britain represented.
As I said, both sides will benefit from it in different ways, but not spectacularly so.

On Food: Yes in some cases, but in others Japan has a lot to export. On Shikoku with it´s mild climate you have up to three harvests a year. With better machines, which at that time already appeared in early versions, Japan will soon be net exporter of foodstuff. and I took rice as an example, because even back then Japan had enough of the stuff to export. I checked that before starting the TL.
I think you misread me, that I will send masses of stuff around the globe in summer 1861. I extrapolated in decades. Do not get it the wrong way, but I think you underestimate the situation back then and the possibilities, despite the big distance between Germany and Japan.
You seem to extrapolate out from just OTL, but we have to include steps taken in ATL, which never happened in OTL. And at that time some multipliers hit far more than they do today. e.g. Krupp knowing that the "home" marketzone suddenly nearly doubled will change his approach, as will Tokyo with the seeding and harvests. Japan produced mainly for self-reliance back then, now having a special market to sell to will change their approach as well. And Japan´s soil has more potential than we often give them credit for.

. That is an absolutely valid point. I agree very much that 20years more experience in colonial affairs will be a bonus for all following endeavours.
2. But on the other hand, a booming Hokkaido will only funnel MORE money into colonial endeavours. First of all into Hokkaido, and when the initial high returns normalize a bit, new schemes will arrive. This might lead to private enterprises going into Africa and Asia earlier than around 1884; but a crash of this market might also bring colonial expansion to a halt after this bubble burst.

it is this bubble, why I am convinced that the german colonial expansion will come mostly to a sudden stop, after a time of rapid enlargement following the Hokkaido success. Hokkaido will be a success and soon, because a) the Isalnd is a rather nice place to settle, b) two people build it up and c) both want to the show the other what they can do
In e.g. DSWA the situation is very different and this difference will be obvious rather soon as well. While strategically important colonies will continue on, I doubt potential investors will put much "dough" into some other areas, instead investing in Hokkaido and the few strategic ones. Better a small piece of a big cake, than a big piece of no cake. i think around 1900 Berlin will have some colonies they can exchange for other things.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Gotta love this, and couple of questions:

1) How will a bigger German presence in the Pacific affect the regional players like Spain (which still has the Philippines) and the Netherlands (which has Indonesia)?

2) How will Russo-German relations be affected with Japan being in the de facto German sphere of influence? Since Japan is very close to Russia and Korea.

 

[katchen]

The 1850s marked a comeuppance for both Russia and for Japan. Japan's comeuppance was relatively painless, when Commodore Perry battered down Japan's doors at Tokyo Bay. But Russia had to lose the Crimean War to Great Britain before it's ruling class would reach a consensus that it could not continue to ban factories "because it brought too many people to cities", ban railroads and cling to serfdom. So the 1860s and the new reign of Alexander II are an excellent time to start building the railroad across Russia all the way to the Pacific and Japan.
Aside from the great distances involved, the logistics are actually a lot easier for a private firm needing public funds only when it reaches areas in Asia that are trackless wilderness. In many of those so called trackless wildernesses, the rail route crosses navigable rivers connected to major river systems such as the Ob, Yensei, Amur and Lena. Which means that once a railhead (or a seaport) is reached on that river system, rail and other supplies can be shipped to construction camps building railroad to either side until they meet in the middle, increasing the intensity of construction and shortening the time until completion to as little as five to eight years from what would likely have been fifteen years. And this greatly decreases the time until investors start to recieve returns on their investment--and until the Tsar can start to build spurs off the railway to pursue his own imperial aims such as conquests in Central Asia.
New Guinea is definitely an area that the Germans inadequately explored and developed when they had it OTL. By point of comparison, the entire island of New Guinea is the size and terrain and climate of Colombia and Ecuador--which has a combined population of 60 million without Asian style intensive agriculture. It means that Northeast New Guinea, if settled by Germans and Japanese can have about 20 million people with the Sepik Basin as a rice bowl, rubber growing along the coast and coffee and tea in the central higlands. And Mt. Hagen with a Bogota" like population of 2-3 million. A lot more if a German-Japanese co-dominium gets the rest of that island.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Didn't Bismarck wanted Germany to prod Russia into expanding in Asia just so it doesn't get involved in Europe?

 

[Monty Burns]

Didn't Bismarck wanted Germany to prod Russia into expanding in Asia just so it doesn't get involved in Europe?

The easiest solution to me would be to prod Russia into expanding South, going for the Ottomans, for Persia and Inner Asia. In such a situation, Russia becomes the main concern of Britain. And if that is the case, Germany and Japan become the logical friends of Britain, which in turn secures the sea ways.


Considering coaling stations: it's true that Germany and Japan could rely on British coaling stations. But I doubt that Britain would make an official alliance or that the governments at the time would willingly accept such a dependence. Britain will know that they control the German access to the seas anyway, no matter how many large bases Germany sets up. German bases for cruiser warfare, in particular combined with conciliatory politics with Britain, wouldn't be seen as a threat. And German coaling stations and colonies would be just what Britain expects from another Great Power.


Another thing to consider: The Panama channel is now of major importancento Germany and Japan. Say Germany now supports the Union in the American civil war (I assume it wouldn't be butterflied away) and then offers to participate in the building of the channel as a minority holder, then the US would likely help in keeping the sea lanes open for Germany as well. Japan taking Hawaii soon would be quite cool by the way...

 

[katchen]

I don't know if you are aware of this but Ezo is the fief of the Shimazu in OTO. And the Shimazu are not only the first to plot to overthrow the Tokugawa Bafuku, but also the first to be interested in European innovations. And they will supply both Saigo Takamori (who wages a Samurai rebellion against the Emperor OTO in 1870) and many of the Genro--Japan's "founding fathers" of modernization in the late 1800s. So if they're giving Ezo to the German Zollverein, they're jumping in with both feet. And oh yes, the Ryukyu Islands are also Shimizu's feif. Could the Zollverein get in there a bit later on? Maybe just on Sakashima Gunto to trade with China via Taiwan?
But the Shimizu will want to be accepted in Germany in return. Perhaps even with a seat or seas in the Reichstag and recognition of common noble rank and status for daimyo and samurai in German society.Perhaps Saigo will be in Germany in 1870, not fomenting rebellion in Japan. The Bafukumaatsu as well as German Unification may play out very differently because of interaction between Germany and Japan.