Yes, I agree.
Thanks for analyze!
I'm looking for detailed information.
Czerwień cities, probably, will lost during the war with Bezprym. I think, he will try take Gnezno, and Sviatopolk will help Casimir and will get the cities as award - and Casimir ger back Krakow. A bishopric, probably, will be established in Vladimir of Volyn.
If Kasimir will have enough forces, he will try to set Bella as King of Hungary, I think.
There are 2 uprisings in Russia - in about 1024 and about 1071. Rostov was baptized rather later - 1070ss, 2 bishops are exiled, third was murdered, if I remember right.
But orthodox church was "mild" - there is "double faith" in Rus'. If Catholic will "stronger" - the reaction may appears, but I don't sure, that Catholic will want too press pagans.
Yes, Chernigovian Rus' will like Rus' OTL (probably with more influence from Byzantium) and Kievian Rus' will more like Poland (or even Germany).
If the clergy will "mild" - they will use Cyrillic alphabet and not too press Russians. In this case culture of Kievian Rus' will be changed slowly.
If they will more fanatic - they will use latin alphabet, and, probably, pagan uprising will begun. It's seems, the rebel probable after death of Sviatopolk (and Briychislav in Polotsk).
I will try find, how the clergy acted in this time in Hungary and Poland.
And I have one more question.
If in spring 1036 Jaromir died, who will be his heir?
Bretislav is imprisoned. His wife, probably, is in Germany - she is a sister of Otto, who married Matilda, a sister of Mieszhko. Bretislavs older son is Spytihněv, is 5 years old.
Casimir, probably, claims for Bohemia.
What does Conrad decide? He is afraid of too strong Poland, on one hand. He can have a strong ally on other hand. I don't sure, what will his choice.
He can gave Bohemia to Spytihněv also, but who will the regent? Otto or Casimir or somebody else?
I was thinking of these problems very hard. I don't know how exactly priests were operating in Poland. It looks to me that in the beginning they were just baptizing a population and the teaching and preaching came later. It was Bolesław who was really harsh - he used to break off teeth of those who broke Lent for example and the death of his beloved wife Emnilda (mother of Mieszko and Otto) only worsened the matter. This and the liquidation of old pagan priest caste and additional tribute taken from people because of wars with Empire and Rus' and obligatory maintenance of fortifications were enough to make people angry. The first rebellions were in 1022 (unless chronicler mistook dates) and the real one after the death of Mieszko when the country was broken. Probably the remnants of pagan priests were preaching about "old good times" but on the other hand it is telling that Kasimir was able to reconquer whole country with only 100 german knights and some russian troops. Probably people preferred the order than anarchy and the pagan clergy weren't better than the christian. In large christian country there was no slavery and no constant warfare between every minuscule tribes and the chances for surviving were much better under rational state administration. The population was still quite pagan in XIII century when the church was well established in Poland and even in the beginning of XV century Jan Długosz described in his chronicle many pagan customs which survived among peasantry.
About Bretislav and Spityhniev
Everything depends on what are relations between Poland and Empire.
In OTL Bolesław the Brave crowned himself without consent of emperor and pope, though he based his coronation on a promise made by Otto III to him. His son lost the crown and his grandson who inherited shattered country was reduced to being a vassal of Emperor's vassal. Later Poland established itself in opposition to empire and consequently supported papacy. And the Czechs who were in opposition to Empire during the rule of Ottonian dynasty later have been supporters of Salic dynasty and became part of Empire.
In this timeline Mieszko managed to mend fences with Konrad and retained the crown, though the obligation of sending troops for support clearly indicated that he became a vassal of emperor, though he didn't need to pay tribute in money. In this timeline the Czechs are the ones who didn't support the emperor with troops when he battled with Hungarians and Poles. So I would say that in this timeline roles of Poland and Bohemia are reversed. I would see establishing Bretislav as a ruler of Bohemia but as a Kasimir's vassal. I think that this would be a price of releasing him from imprisonment. I think that Konrad would agree as long as Kasimir supports him in war with Vends.
About Bezprym
Difficult question. I think that Kasimir wouldn't attack him as long as he is engaged in putting down rebelion and fighting with Vends. I suppose it would take about two years (first year putting down rebellions and in second year large offensive against Vends which would make them more peaceful.) The empire also needs to replenish it's losses so the war would probably be over around 1037. The question is would Bezprym attack earlier? What army would he lead, what support would he have in Poland and abroad? I think that in Poland he would be meaningless, the Poles have the rightful king and are content with him (beside the rebels but would Bezprym risk associating him with resurgent pagans?). Abroad - maybe Stephen but he just gained what he wanted and doesn't need any more problems. Unless he sees an opportunity to gain more lands and wealth in attacking Poland while Kasimir is distracted but a I can recollect he has domestic troubles right now. (Well, it depends. If the death of crown prince Imre is butterflied the succession is stable).
Bezprym would probably find an ally in Bretislav if the latter is established as a duke in Bohemia. He would probably promise him Moravia and independence in exchange for support. The question is would Bretislav risk such gamble? If he failed he would be executed and Bohemian lands would be probably directly incorporated into Poland or given to some German magnate as a fief.
What if Bezprym asked Sviatopolk for support and promised him Czerwień and the other towns? Coalition of Sviatopolk, Bezprym and Bretislav would probably make Kasimir's life very difficult. The question is would Sviatopolk risk total alienation from Poland and Empire to gain just few gorods? He still has Mstislav on the other side of Dnieper and Brachislav in Polock. And they would have support from Byzantines.
If you don't mind I would suggest following chain of events:
1. Kasimir releases Bretislav on request of Konrad. Bretislav is established duke of Bohemia and Kasimir's vassal. Kasimir finishes putting down revolts. (In OTL he managed to reconquer the whole country just with 100 knights from Empire and some russian troop given to him by Yaroslav - he has more troops in this timeline so his task is much easier)
2. Kasimir is engaged in war with Vends, probably he tries to make some gains in Pomerania. A that time Bezprym contacts Bretislav and Sviatopolk and promises them Moravian and Czerwień Towns respectively. Sviatopolk refuses but observes a situation.
3. Bezprym and Bretislav attack when Kasimir's army is completely engaged in Pomerania and Vielet's land. Kasimir asks Sviatopolk for help before he can disengage. Sviatopolk agrees but demands the return of Czerwień and the other towns. Kasimir has to agree.
4. Sviatopolk fights Bezprym, Kasimir makes peace with Pomeranians and Vends and turns south. Bretislav briefly occupies Moravia.
5. Kasimir defeats Bretislav and occupies Bohemia. Sviatopolk chases out Bezprym from Poland. He annexes Czerwien towns again.
6. Stephen of Hungary dies. Kasimir attacks Slovakia, reannexes the province and kills Bezprym and any of his possible offsprings. Not wanting to offend an emperor he doesn't harm Spityhniev and establishes himself as his and his mother's guardian. Bretislav is in exile or dead, whatever.
7. Konrad dies, Henry III is new King of Romans. He is accompanied by Kasimir's troops in his journey to Rome. He accepts the annexation of Bohemia into Polish realm.
Of course this is your timeline so no need to take anything from above suggestion.
Or is it too "fantastic" scenario? I don't sure, that all men will act by these ways. If yes, I will think about more realistic.
