Yaroslav the Wise is killed in 1018

[lokaloki]

And Henry would probably be still in Sicily trying to finalize conquest. When the cat's away...

I think, yes. It seems, some hard years begin for the Empire.

Who's going to rule after him? Hardrada like in OTL? You can expect some wars.

I think, after Magnus will be the war of two Haralds. Probably, Harald Olaffson will win.

You can kill him anytime. In OTL he died rather early.

If Henry III died without a son, a new election takes place. And, probably, a civil war begin, because too many men want to become the emperor.
It's a pity, because the Empire falls . But maybe, it's interesting for other countries .
The emperor may die during Saxon epidemic, in 1047, when he return to fight against vassals. In OTL he was ill very hard in fall 1045, dukes thought, that he would die and elected a new emperor already.

Why not both? At that time Pisa was quite powerful.

Maybe, both. The Pope may support both new lands of Pisa.

I thought that it would be fun if neither Genoa nor Venice made empires in this timeline.

There is a crisis in Venice in 1046, as far as I know. And Croatia is stronger, than in OTL. It's possible

 

[lokaloki]

Chapter thirty one. 1046. Germany.

When Herny III went to Italy, he set Bruno, Bishop of Würzburg as the imperial chancellor of Germany [1].
Bernard II, Gottshalk, and Kazimir I prepared for the war against Slavs.

In January Eckard II, Margrave of Meissen dies [2]. Bruno adds his marches (March of Zeitz, March of Merseburg and the part of Thuringia) to the emperors demesne, until Herny III return from Sicily. [3]
Dedi, the son of the sister of Eckard, claims that he is heir of Eckard. When Bruno refuses, Dedi says, that Henry III wants give marches to the Poland king. He asks Bernard for help - and the duke of Saxony promises the protection. [4]
Bruno goes to Lorraine for the justice. [5]

In June Bernard, Kazimir and Gottschalk attacks Slavs.
When Bernard went to the war, dukes of both Lorraines, Gothelo and Adalbert, in June attacks Dedi and "releases" marches. During the campaign, Gothelo died [6].
Bernard ends the war against Slavs and returns to help his ally. Gottschalk goes with him. Kazimir meets much more enemies then he expects. In late June he is defeated and goes back to Poland. Slavs ruined nearest Poland lands.

Bruno threaten Bernard with the emperors anger and excommunication, but Saxons were ready for the rebellion.[7] In July, in the battle Adalbert was killed. [8]
When both dukes were killed, Dirk of Holland attacked the bishopric of Utrecht.
Bruno set Otto, the Pfalzgraf von Lothringen, as a new duke of both Lorraines [9].
Lambert II, count of Louven, claimed that Lorraine must belong him, because he is grandson of Karl, the duke of Lorraine, and his wife is the daughter of the duke of Lorraine. Counts of Flanders and Hainaut supported him, and the king of France promised help [10].
When Bernard heard the news, he proposed unite forces and to elect a new emperor. All parties agreed, and in September Bruno II was elected as a new emperor [11].


[1] - in OTL Bruno died in 1045 in accident, the house, where he and the emperor had dinner, was crashed. In TTL the accident didn't happen. Bruno was cousin of Conrad II, and in OTL he courted Agnes of Poitou on behalf of Henry. So, probably, he ruled, when the emperor absent.
[2] - as in OTL.
[3] - in OTL Henry get lands himself, but then he gave it to Dedi.
[4] - it seems, it is logic for Bernard. His son is married the sister of Magnus, powerful king of North. He has a large army. And he afraid of too strong Poland.
[5] - Saxony refused to help; armies of Swabia and Bavaria were in Italy; Bruno didn't want to ask Kazimir - so, he asked dukes, who supported Henry III.
[6] - as in OTL, in summer, 1046.
[7] - they rebelled in OTL after death of Henry III. Bernard himself rebelled against emperors.
[8] - as he was killed in 1048 in OTL.
[9] - in OTL he was set as the duke of Swabia.
[10] - as he promised help to Godfrey in OTL.
[11] - his lands were on the North, so, he was a neighbor for all rebells.
His father was a pretender on throne. His sister was a wife of the Henry, the king of France. And he can agree to become the emperor, I think.

 

[lokaloki]

There are some questions.
1) Could Bruno call dukes of Lorraine against Dedi (and Bernard)?
I think, yes. In OTL, Henry IV fought against Saxons with help from a duke of Lorraine. In general, dukes could win, but the first duke died before the battle and the second duke was killed during the battle.

2) What does Henry III do, when he get the news from Germany?
It takes about month or half of month. So, if the first battle (Gothelo and Adalbert vs Dedi) was in June, and the second battle (Bernard vs Adalbert) was in the begging of July. In the end of July - August Dirk rebelled. In August Bernard discussed with Dirk, Boduen, Henry of France and Bruno II. In September Bruno was elected as the emperor.

Henry III knows about a new emperor in October, when he seized Syracuse. He must go back. Can he leave a part of the army to end the Sicilian war? I think, they are troops of Henry (as a main ruler) and of Guaimar IV of Solerno, and of Argyrus of Apilua.

3) What does Boniface III do?
He is ruler of the half of Italy. He has "his Pope", and this Pope can poison the emperor. If the emperor die, Boniface can become the King of Italy. If Boniface helps to Henry, he can receive a new lands, but Henry can be afraid of too powerful vassal.

 

[Mefisto]

I'm trying to figure few things.
1. Invasion on Lutizi.
Bernard probably went along Havel river to reestablish Havelberg and Brandenburg marche. Gottshalk would beign with Kessin and than probably he would invest Demmin or try to reach Wolgast. Kasimir has probably most ambotious plans: he would try to reach Stettin and retain lands between Spree, upper Havel and Oder in purpose of securing the lands od Pomerania for future vassalization or conquest and build base for eventual invasion of Wolin. The withdrawing of Bernard and Gottshalk would find him very overextended. He would need to return quickly to Lubusz or Cedynia. This means he would probably loose plenty of soldiers and supplies. The failure would probably make him very bitter toward Saxons and Obodrites. From this I would see the expansion on Pomeranian lands from the east and south-east and only defensive stance west of Oder.
2. I would see some faction emerging. The first one would be saxons centered around Bernard and Dedi. Then would be Lotharingian-Palatinate faction of Ezzonids and Otto of Lothringen? Ezzonids are next in the order for throne if Henry III cannot have male hair. The would be the third faction around the Empress (I think she would not go to the sicilian war and she would reside somewhere in Germany or Italy). Probably Ezzonids would support her out of necessity.
BTW weren't Bernard II more powerful than Bruno? Why wouldn't he be acclaimed king? (Not Emperor. To be an emperor you would need to be crowned by pope in Rome). And wouldn't Bruno be rather loyal to Henry than rival? What was a point of claiming the crown by him? Does he think that Henry is dead or something?
3. I think that Henry would immediately halt his invasion of Sicily and transfer his whole army north. No point in leaving garrisons behind to be decimated piecemeal. He needs to crush the rebellion with all available force. Only then he can return to Sicily and try once again.
Besides: he met Maniakes and he know firsthand that Byzantine conquests were quickly undone when the general was recalled. So he would decide against wasting soldiers who would be more useful in Germany.

 

[lokaloki]

I'm trying to figure few things.
1. Invasion on Lutizi.

Thanks for details!
If you agree, I add them to TL.

From this I would see the expansion on Pomeranian lands from the east and south-east and only defensive stance west of Oder.

In general, yes. His mother is the daughter of Ezzo, and she wants to help her family, but Kazimir has not enough warriors.

2. I would see some faction emerging.The first one would be saxons centered around Bernard and Dedi.

Yes. And Dirk of Holland, and Lambert II, and Boduen of Flanders. In OTL they united with Godfrey, and in TTL, I think, they unite with Bernard.

Then would be Lotharingian-Palatinate faction of Ezzonids and Otto of Lothringen?

Yes. They supported Henry III. If he die - probably, they will support Henry of Luxembourg. In OTL they elected him as heir, when Henry was ill in 1045.

The would be the third faction around the Empress (I think she would not go to the sicilian war and she would reside somewhere in Germany or Italy). Probably Ezzonids would support her out of necessity.

If Henry III die, she becomes owner of all his lands. And she is byzantine princess and may have enough force to create her own fraction. I don't sure, that Ezzonids support her.

And wouldn't Bruno be rather loyal to Henry than rival? What was a point of claiming the crown by him? Does he think that Henry is dead or something?

Bruno, it seems, was not too clever man. He attacked the archbishop of Hamburg in OTL. Than he attacked his relative, Otto, with small troop and he was killed. And he is young in 1046, he is only 22 years.
From another hand, Bernard is not a relative of any king, and he may want to have "a right king" and rule Germany himself, and he can persuade Bruno to become the king. Henry of France can support Bruno too, as a relative of his died wife.
Bernard can't give Lorraine to France, but, may be, he can propose him Burgundy.
But, in general, I'm not sure
In general, I'm not sure, that Bernard would attack Duke of Lorraine too. maybe, better to end Lutizi campaign without rebellion.
Changed in next post.

3. I think that Henry would immediately halt his invasion of Sicily and transfer his whole army north.

Then Boniface cannot kill him and he followed him. Henry must pass Alps in the winter, and his army will be rather weak, but he will get the help from Bela of Hungary.

 

[lokaloki]

Bernard is a clever man. He understands, that the war against the emperor is very dangerous. So, if he has not chances to win, he doesn't begin the rebellion.
What does Bernard of Saxony have?
Firstly, Saxony. And if Bernard crowned as the king himself, some of knights can upset in the rebellion, because Bernard has no rights to the crown. But Bruno is a relative of the emperors, and landowners, who dislikes Henry, can support Bruno and the rebellion.
Secondly, Holland, Flanders and the part of Lorraine. In OTL they fought against the emperor, and it was a hard war for the Henry. Bernard promised them a lands.
Thirdly, Gottschalk. He is not a too powerful ally, yes. But, maybe, he can buy the help of Slavs.
Fourthly, the North Kingdom. The son of Bernard is the husband of the sister of Magnus and Harald Olafson. Probably, he must give them a new counties near Denmark.
Fifthly, Henry of France. Bernard must give him Lorraine, but Henry has a rather strong army, and he can help the rebellion.

What does Henry III have?
Swabian, Bavarian and Burgundian forces. But best of them fought a year in Sicily and they are rather weak.
Italian armies of Boniface, Guieamr and Argyr. But they are don't want fight in Germany, not in Italy.
Kazimir of Poland - but the king lost best troops.
Bela of Hungary - yes, probably.
Sviatopolk of Rus - he can use him against the North kingdom, but Sviatopolk is not too interested in this war.

Do I forget something for any side?

So, it seems, Bernard has a chance to defeat Henry.

 

[Mefisto]

1. Do Henry III have a son already? If not, if he dies, his heir is still Cuno of Zutphen. Is he married already? If not, he has still some options viable.
The empress is alone in Germany and if her husband dies she has no rights to rule. But she is the Byzantine princess and marrying her would give a boost in status to any pretender. I thought that in political calculation of both empress and Cuno of Zutphen it would be good to be in alliance in the event of Henry's death.
If she has son the boy is still very underage and cannot rule alone. The empress could appoint the regent. Who would be a regent? Not Bernard, the traitor. Not the upstart Bruno II. Maybe Bruno the cancellor and/or Cuno who are both loyal and have interest in resisting the usurper.
2. Kazimir has a problem. The defeat was humiliating. His friend needs help. He has a debt to pay: it was Henry who helped him to fight Czechs, Hungarians and Bezprym. But he cannot leave his country without military cover. I think that Kazimir probably mustered 5000 warriors against Lutizi out of about 10 000 - 12 000. He could loose maybe 2000 killed and about 1000 wounded. I think that whole Slavic force was about 5000 too - they fought in their own territory. They could lose even more but they managed to repell the invaders through ambushes.
Let's say Kazimir can spare right now about 1000-1500 warriors to help Henry. He can add some more in winter, when the wounded ones are healthy again and when he has food storages replenished. Besides snowy, frosty winter is much better season to fight than rainy, cold autumn.
In the next season, if rebellion in Germany is still brewing, he would muster more forces who would be glad to fight in Germany for spoils and loots. But these would be foot contingents, Poland at this time severely lacked horses and probably many of them was lost at Stettin.
Lutizi also have problems. The campaign was in summer which means that crops were destroyed before it could be harvested. Many people were killed, many wounded so they could not work on fields. It is going to be a hungry winter. Probably it is going to be relatively calm on Slavic-Polish border as nobody is interested in fighting. Unless the hungry warriors would try to loot some food abroad... I don't know.

 

[lokaloki]

1. Do Henry III have a son already? If not, if he dies, his heir is still Cuno of Zutphen. Is he married already? If not, he has still some options viable.

No, Henry has not a son yet. In OTL Henry IV was born only in 1050, and Vladimir Monomakh was born in 1053. So, in TTL Henry will be born about 1051-1052, if Henry III will alive.

Sorry, but I think, his heir is Henry, son of Hezzelin. I don't know, why, but he was elected in OTL in the end of 1045, when Ezzonids thought, that Herny III is dying.
And he is not married in 1046, he married about 1048, so he can be a husband of a widow of Henry III.

2. Kazimir has a problem. The defeat was humiliating. His friend needs help. He has a debt to pay... Unless the hungry warriors would try to loot some food abroad... I don't know.

I understand, that more detailed campaigns are needed. Thanks! I will use your analyze, if you agree, and will try write about all sides of the rebellion.
Firstly, I want to write in general Byzantium, because it can some influences on Germany (and Hungary), and then return to Central Europe.

 

[Mefisto]

Henry son of Hezzelin. I just have read about him and found him very interesting. These are interesting times indeed.
My impression in this timeline is that in the Empire there are two political options. The first one is to have an empire more closely modelled on antient Roman one, more inclusive to other ethnicities - and right now this option is represented by Henry III and previously by Konrad II and Otto III. The second one is the Empire in which the German folk (Saxons, Franks, Bavarians, Swabians and Thuringians) is more elevated above other peoples and especially above Slavic peoples. This option was represented by emperor Henry II and now by Bernard and maybe Bruno the usurper. Another division can be seen: Saxons want to establish and maintain supremacy over Slavs in the east (after all they mutinied because of fear that Polish king would acquire more lands in former eastern marches). They wouldn't mind to make some concessions in the west in exchange for French (well, Western Frankish) support. The Lotharingians are okay with Slavs but they are afraid of possibility of giving out Lotharingia to French. So they would appeal to Poles (and possibly to Hungarians) for help.
Is this what you are suggesting?

And about details - I mentioned earlier my bias. I wouldn't want to derail yout thread. Give as many details as you find necessary. My analysis was only made in purpose of finding out what would be the response of Kazimir to the situation. And as I am a Pole my knowledge about Poland is much better than about other states. At least I'm able to make some rough demographic estimation. I would be happy if you find my ramblings useful but feel free to discard them entirely if you don't need them.

 

[lokaloki]

My impression in this timeline is that in the Empire there are two political options. The first one is to have an empire more closely modelled on antient Roman one, more inclusive to other ethnicities - and right now this option is represented by Henry III and previously by Konrad II and Otto III. The second one is the Empire in which the German folk (Saxons, Franks, Bavarians, Swabians and Thuringians) is more elevated above other peoples and especially above Slavic peoples. This option was represented by emperor Henry II and now by Bernard and maybe Bruno the usurper.

Yes, I think, you are right.

Another division can be seen: Saxons want to establish and maintain supremacy over Slavs in the east (after all they mutinied because of fear that Polish king would acquire more lands in former eastern marches). They wouldn't mind to make some concessions in the west in exchange for French (well, Western Frankish) support. The Lotharingians are okay with Slavs but they are afraid of possibility of giving out Lotharingia to French. So they would appeal to Poles (and possibly to Hungarians) for help.
Is this what you are suggesting?

If Lotharingians are Ezzonids - yes.
But there are also other Lotharingians - Lambert II, Godfrey in OTL (in TTL he is imprison), some counts, who may become France without any problems (Lambert is the grandson of Karl, who was the brother of last Carolingian king of France). So, it will be the war, probably.

And about details - I mentioned earlier my bias. I wouldn't want to derail yout thread. Give as many details as you find necessary. My analysis was only made in purpose of finding out what would be the response of Kazimir to the situation. And as I am a Pole my knowledge about Poland is much better than about other states. At least I'm able to make some rough demographic estimation. I would be happy if you find my ramblings useful but feel free to discard them entirely if you don't need them.

Thanks for your analysis! I will use them.
And I needed more details now, and it is interesting - to find more details.

And I want to write a good TL, and, from my point of view, you help me. You have helped me so much already, and, I hope, you will be interested in the TL in future too.

 

[Mefisto]

If Lotharingians are Ezzonids - yes.
But there are also other Lotharingians - Lambert II, Godfrey in OTL (in TTL he is imprison), some counts, who may become France without any problems (Lambert is the grandson of Karl, who was the brother of last Carolingian king of France). So, it will be the war, probably.

Right, Ezzonids and an actual count palatinate of Lotharingia can be on emperor's side but many other nobles and aristocrats may be not.

Thanks for your analysis! I will use them.
And I needed more details now, and it is interesting - to find more details.

And I want to write a good TL, and, from my point of view, you help me. You have helped me so much already, and, I hope, you will be interested in the TL in future too.

I'm glad to be useful.

I think I have forgotten about something earlier. The empress may be alone in Germany but she has her dowry in southern Italy. There are many Greeks there and she is also a Greek princess from birth. I'm sure she accompanied the emperor in his journey on Italy but i doubt she would take part in invasion no Sicily. The question is: would Henry bring her with him to Germany or would he leave her in Italy for her safety? What would happen to her if the emperor dies? Would she return to Constantinople or would she join local politics? After all in Constantinople she is just a princess, in Italy and Germany she is an Empress. Would she try to play Theophanu? Or would she be relieved that she can leave these barbarians and return to civilisation - together with her dowry.

 

[lokaloki]

I think I have forgotten about something earlier. The empress may be alone in Germany but she has her dowry in southern Italy. There are many Greeks there and she is also a Greek princess from birth. I'm sure she accompanied the emperor in his journey on Italy but i doubt she would take part in invasion no Sicily. The question is: would Henry bring her with him to Germany or would he leave her in Italy for her safety? What would happen to her if the emperor dies? Would she return to Constantinople or would she join local politics? After all in Constantinople she is just a princess, in Italy and Germany she is an Empress. Would she try to play Theophanu? Or would she be relieved that she can leave these barbarians and return to civilisation - together with her dowry.

Thanks!
I will think about these questions too
And now I cannot write the history of Byzantium, because Bulgarians refused to revolt against Stefan and a "Latin" archbishop, while Henry is live and strong. They afraid of a Hungarian invasion, and they don't believe, that Aaron (and Leo) can protect them.
In general, it is very interesting thing - to write the detailed TL, but it is needed time.

 

[lokaloki]

To write a detailed history of 1045-1046 years, I need to write a detailed history of the reign of Henry III. But then I need to write a detailed history of his father, Conrad II. And then... Stop.
The last years of Henry II were not changed by the POD, the unsuccessful campaign of Sviatopolk changed nothing.
So, I can start from 1024 year.

But before I want to say "Thanks" to all readers and I want to ask - is it interesting for you to reread events of "past"? Or you prefer to wait for I ended with this work and then I will continue the TL?

 

[Mefisto]

But before I want to say "Thanks" to all readers and I want to ask - is it interesting for you to reread events of "past"? Or you prefer to wait for I ended with this work and then I will continue the TL?

This is going to be great. I will be waiting patiently for you to write a detailed biography of Conrad II and Henry III. I'm certain that many butterflies will spam from the events which weren't in OTL. Good luck.

 

[lokaloki]

This is going to be great. I will be waiting patiently for you to write a detailed biography of Conrad II and Henry III. I'm certain that many butterflies will spam from the events which weren't in OTL. Good luck.

Thanks!
I have read Cambridge History, but, I think, it is not enough. I found a good book and will try to work with it.
Probably, the TL will change Now I think, that the German-Polish peace should be make in the autumn of 1031 on in the spring of 1032. Ant it means, that Conrad will be free, when Rodolph of Burgundy will die in September of 1032. But, a new TL may become better.
And, maybe, it is a good idea to write biographies of other rulers (Polish and Hungarian kings, Bohemian and Russian princes, Byzantine emperors, Scandinavian kings). I hope, I will can do it.