XXth C: Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Glen
- Start date
Theory
The best time for forced relocation of populations by social characteristic (e.g., national homogenization) is in the immediate aftermath of war. The opportunity cost is at its lowest because the destruction and chaos has already disrupted the economy. National borders are being redrawn, and new nations are being born. Most importantly, the general opinion of multiculturalism is at an all-time low at the end of a war, while nationalistic fervor is high.
The Caucasus -- OTL
That's certainly how things looked OTL after WWI. In OTL, though, while Europe got two relatively humane forced relocations after WWI & WWII, the Caucasus got a disaster -- poorly drawn borders betrayed mixed motives, and the hallmark event was the Armenian Genocide.
The Caucasus -- XXth C
It doesn't have to be that way. In XXth C, we have a very different war.
One where the Caucasian nations play a brave and proud role -- defining themselves in war and in diplomacy, and enbarrassing Russia.
One where Turkey doesn't totally embarass themselves -- and therefore never launches the cultural juggernauts that were the Young Turk and Ataturk's Republic eras.
One that ends without Mandates and without Soviets.
Proposal
The nations that stand to gain, in my mind, are Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
It's been a while since I read through XXth C, so I might be misremembering a lot of details...
The best time for forced relocation of populations by social characteristic (e.g., national homogenization) is in the immediate aftermath of war. The opportunity cost is at its lowest because the destruction and chaos has already disrupted the economy. National borders are being redrawn, and new nations are being born. Most importantly, the general opinion of multiculturalism is at an all-time low at the end of a war, while nationalistic fervor is high.
The Caucasus -- OTL
That's certainly how things looked OTL after WWI. In OTL, though, while Europe got two relatively humane forced relocations after WWI & WWII, the Caucasus got a disaster -- poorly drawn borders betrayed mixed motives, and the hallmark event was the Armenian Genocide.
The Caucasus -- XXth C
It doesn't have to be that way. In XXth C, we have a very different war.
One where the Caucasian nations play a brave and proud role -- defining themselves in war and in diplomacy, and enbarrassing Russia.
One where Turkey doesn't totally embarass themselves -- and therefore never launches the cultural juggernauts that were the Young Turk and Ataturk's Republic eras.
One that ends without Mandates and without Soviets.
Proposal
The nations that stand to gain, in my mind, are Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
- Georgia is in a position to win the Circassians and Chechens into their national orbit. In the long run, this could be reckless (Orthodox-Muslim relations are tricky), but unless Georgia and Armenia unify, that's the direction that they would expand in.
- Armenia I posted what they want above. Armenians were spread out over a pretty large area at the end of the Ottoman Empire. A really generous settlement would also give them the Nineveh plains, where the Assyrian Christians live. Since as I recall, Turkey didn't collapse at the end of the war, though, I don't see Armenia getting everything that they want. I do see Armenia ending up with the lands that are co-populated by the Azeris.
- Why? Because the Azeris are going to do very well for themselves regardless. Russia and Persia are both a mess, and the new Turko-Arabic Federation doesn't have much of a legitimate claim to their lands. On this map of (modern OTL) Persia, I would award Azerbaijan all of the lands marked "Azeri". Now in time, Turkey might be interested in unifying with the Azeris, who are arguably their closest ethno-linguistic partners, but that's a story for another day.
It's been a while since I read through XXth C, so I might be misremembering a lot of details...
Glen
Moderator
That's one way to look at it....
With you so far...
Okay, looks like most of the history of the region is sparse so far. Armenia is free as of the 1938 ending of the war, as is Georgia. Georgia in the 1950s joins the Germanic trading block, so is still around. There is also some Kurd nation in 1938. Those Azeri areas are in the North Persian Russian puppet state.
So the question is, what do we assume happens to these nations over a 60ish time period.
Overall, I have no problem with your general assessment, but now we need to translate it into events and interpret what will happen some 60 years from then.
I'd personally like to see all three of those states persist more or less.
Glen
Moderator
A very interesting thought, but do you have some ideas about how that happens? I'd like to include it if we can make it plausible. Part of the fallout from the Pacific War?
I was thinking of a greater reaction against the US military invading Okinawa during WWII. With the a larger number of Okinawans dying from the indifference of the Japanese, and an even more vehement expression that the Americans would go on a rampage if the US successfully invaded. Followed by battlefield photos, or even film of Japanese persuading the Okinawans on to kill themselves. That with a restrained military presence in Okinawa, I think would garner more support for a seperate Okinawa.
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Glen
Moderator
World War II? I think you're in the wrong timeline, my friend. The US and Japan fought in the Global War in the 1930s, but that briefly and the US never got to Okinowa if I recall correctly. They had a brief but much more serious war in 1967, including a limited nuclear exchange. However, the shake-up in the Japanese government as a result of the 1967 war led to more democratic government there, so it might be possible to see a movement towards Okinowan independence allowed, though I would think that at the very least they would be expected to keep the Emperor as their nominal head of state.
You need a series of events between 1967 and 1972 showing how this independence movement develops and succeeds.
The information is all in the Timeline thread. Because that thread is so long, some info has been condensed on the Wiki or in the Map and Flag Thread.
Glen
Moderator
My mistake, I thought this was something new, have fun guys!
Its not new, but it is still an ongoing concern. There are plenty of nooks and crannies in the world that still need fleshing out.
Join us!
Glen
Moderator
[thread=27829]XXth Century Draft Thread[/thread] now cleared and ready for new events for the XXth Century Timeline.
Yes, its a monster, but there are still many unexplored regions, tantalizing loose ends, and other matters to flesh out.
Become part of the phenomenon!
Don't you want to contribute to a timeline that has Senator Bogart, famous screenwriter HP Lovecraft, and the Quentin Roosevelt Space Center?
Yes, its a monster, but there are still many unexplored regions, tantalizing loose ends, and other matters to flesh out.
Become part of the phenomenon!
Don't you want to contribute to a timeline that has Senator Bogart, famous screenwriter HP Lovecraft, and the Quentin Roosevelt Space Center?
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February 1940 -- Dr. Henry Drysdale Dakin reports in Annals of Biological Chemistry that celiac disease is caused by an inflammatory reaction to gluten. Dr. Dakin credits the inspiration to a Negro student, Maria Page, who performed a bio-chemical analysis comparing wheat to the Ethiopian grain teff for her master's thesis.
(Note: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Archibald_Herter_(physician))
(Note: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Archibald_Herter_(physician))