Wilhelm II assassinated in 1901, effect on the leadup to WW1?

[Imperial Advocate]

Let's say that the March 1901 assassination attempt on Kaiser Wilhelm II is fatal, resulting in the early death of the Kaiser. Crown Prince Wilhelm is crowned as Wilhelm III of the German Empire, becoming the fourth Kaiser of the German Empire. Due to his young age at 19 years old, Wilhelm III is advised/tutored by his uncle Prince Henry of Prussia on foreign diplomacy and managing Germany. Now to the question, how will the duo of Willy III and Henry in charge of the Kaiserreich change the course of the Germany and its alliances ITTL?

My take on the scenario is that without Wilhelm II's tacit support for building a massive navy, there Anglo-German arms race could be averted or at a minimum nuanced enough not to foster a rivalry. The German Empire might turn more so to building up their army against the Franco-Russian Entente. Heck, without an Anglo-German arms race to frighten England, reapproachment with the Franco-Russian Entente from 1904-1907 could be averted. Could the Anglo-German alliance talks of 1898-1901 be successful perhaps even?

German diplomacy might also be much more better with the rest of the world with a Willy III-Henry duo without Wilhelm II's unstable personality. There is also the fact that without Wilhelm II's 'Yellow Peril' fear of Japan, the Germans might be more inclined to support the Japanese over the Russians, especially if come the Russo-Japanese War. How will alliances with the Triple Alliance (i.e. A-H, Italy, Romania) be renewed with Willy III in charge?

Now, if a situation similar to the 1914 July Crisis were to break out, how will Willy III react? I read a quote of his in October 1914 just months after the start of WW1, in which he said it was the "most stupid, senseless, and unnecessary war of modern times'. Perhaps Willy III is less inclined to support A-H with a blank check and is even more determined than OTL Wilhelm II to approach the crisis in a diplomatic manner? If WW1 were to still break out, could Willy III keep the Brits out of war more effectively or even corral more allies (i.e. Italy, Ottomans, Romania) onto the CP side against the Franco-Russian Entente.

 

[acasewithfourstonesinit]

A willy III/henry duo would be so much better then in (are time line's) mad willy as well as a very likey end to the anglo german naval arm's race and a very likey anglo german rapprochement,

The russo japanese conflict ended when it did as the japanese no longer had the gold backed hard currency to continue the conflict but if germany had supported japan with gold backed hard currency then japan would of done better with the net benefit that japan may end up in a quad alliance of (germany-austria hungary-italy-japan),

In the (1914 july crisis) willy III/henry duo would likey exercise restraint and try to get austria hungary to exercise restraint,

With out a conflict on the continent of europe to distract the british public from the home rule hyper crisi's it is very unlikely that london would be successful at navigating the home rule hyper crisi's with out falling in to a empire ending civil war befor the end of 1914,

And with out the austro serbian and or (russo german) (austro russian) conflict's to distract the russian public from the largest worker's strike in russia's history at that time that it is very likely that russia has a empire ending violent revolution and or civil war befor the end of 1914,

With out the (1914 franco german conflict) to distract the french public it is very likely that (auguste marie joseph jean leon jaure's) is not assassinated and that he is successful with his socialist peaceful nonviolent revolution and a rapprochement with germany.

 

[Hoplophile]

Crown Prince Wilhelm was, alas, every bit as unstable as his father. Thus, as he grows older, and more confident, he will become less willing to take direction from his uncle. Thus, we may end up with much the same sort of situation, with respect to arms races and the start of the Great War, as we did in our own time line.

 

[Janprimus]

It first starts with the repercussions of haunting down the group responsible for the murder of the previous Kaiser. Then one needs to remember Prince Heinrich was Grand Admiral of the Imperial German Navy. He'd likely want to pursue some expansion of the fleet. Germany had some colonies and clever negotiations with the UK could get Germany a fleet on par with France.
Wilhelm II was a mixed bag, being born deformed (and other things due to his complicated birth) and later 'treatments' left him scarred. Not to mention his desire to please his British relatives, but them (but also his Russian relatives) preferring their Danish relatives instead. For someone as unstable as Wilhelm II, that was hard to handle, since apart from his personality, they were punishing him for the German victory in the Schleswig-Holstein, disputed by Denmark and Germany.
Wilhelm III might have been unstable, but I doubt he had the same issues as his father.

However everything after 1902 will gradually be butterflied away. There might be similar conflicts, but TTL won't be like OTL. I think Wilhelm III under the regency of Heinrich will do better for sure, but sometimes ambitions may still clash. The German Empire could move a bit towards the UK, but at the same time Germany was an economic powerhouse and a military juggernaut, so it must come both ways. It may not be the grandiose 'Place in the sun' ambition, but as a fellow Great Power, they will have ambitions.

 

[Imperial Advocate]

A willy III/henry duo would be so much better then in (are time line's) mad willy as well as a very likey end to the anglo german naval arm's race and a very likey anglo german rapprochement,

Agreed. If Germany were to boost its navy to stack up against Russia/France and for trade reasons, Prince Henry/Willy III might do it in a more managed way that would less be a direct challenge to the British Royal Navy. With England not feeling threatened by the High Seas Fleet, detente with London (or even an alliance) is in the cards.

The russo japanese conflict ended when it did as the japanese no longer had the gold backed hard currency to continue the conflict but if germany had supported japan with gold backed hard currency then japan would of done better with the net benefit that japan may end up in a quad alliance of (germany-austria hungary-italy-japan),

Yeah, in this timelines, the Germans would side with the Japanese instead of Russia to gain Tokyo's favor. IOTL, Wilhelm II supported Russia in the Russo-Japanese War over his 'Yellow Peril' fears, though OTL's Prince Henry was the opposite and respected the Japanese as a rising westernized nation instead of 'evil yellow race TM'.

Perhaps if the Kaiserreich supports Japan, could the Portsmouth peace settlement be more or less the same or more favourable for Japan with German support, perhaps the additional acquisition of all of Sakhalin(including the North). For sure, German support for Japan be in trough finance and advisors will gain the favor of Tokyo, healing diplomatic wounds from the aftermath of the anti-Japanese Triple Intervention. Plus, Japan will be a good deterrent to the Russians and French to the East and very much allies if promised territories (i.e. Indochina, Outer+Inner Manchuria, French concessions in China, etc...).

In the (1914 july crisis) willy III/henry duo would likey exercise restraint and try to get austria hungary to exercise restraint,

If such a situation like OTL's Sarajevo Crisis were to break out, TTL's Germany will be less diplomatically isolated (British more or less neutral towards the Entente/Triple Alliance, potential alliance with Japan) so will be less pressured to support Vienna with a blank check.

 

[Imperial Advocate]

It first starts with the repercussions of haunting down the group responsible for the murder of the previous Kaiser. Then one needs to remember Prince Heinrich was Grand Admiral of the Imperial German Navy. He'd likely want to pursue some expansion of the fleet. Germany had some colonies and clever negotiations with the UK could get Germany a fleet on par with France.
Wilhelm II was a mixed bag, being born deformed (and other things due to his complicated birth) and later 'treatments' left him scarred. Not to mention his desire to please his British relatives, but them (but also his Russian relatives) preferring their Danish relatives instead. For someone as unstable as Wilhelm II, that was hard to handle, since apart from his personality, they were punishing him for the German victory in the Schleswig-Holstein, disputed by Denmark and Germany.
Wilhelm III might have been unstable, but I doubt he had the same issues as his father.

However everything after 1902 will gradually be butterflied away. There might be similar conflicts, but TTL won't be like OTL. I think Wilhelm III under the regency of Heinrich will do better for sure, but sometimes ambitions may still clash. The German Empire could move a bit towards the UK, but at the same time Germany was an economic powerhouse and a military juggernaut, so it must come both ways. It may not be the grandiose 'Place in the sun' ambition, but as a fellow Great Power, they will have ambitions.

Yeah, I agree that William III/Henry will still want to build up the German navy to counter the Franco-Russian fleet and to maintain a naval force to garrison their colonies and to secure trade. Though ITTL, it could be done in a less brash/militaristic matter that would cause less English antagonism though Prince Henry making sure to keep England content with German naval expansion, be it trough naval agreements with the Royal Navy.

I agree that crises and events in Europe from TTL's 1902-1914 will be drastically different without ol' Willy II. Stuff like the Moroccan Crises of 1905 and 1911 and the July Crises would more likely be handled totally differently (or might not even take place). Though my expectations is that some sort of great war might occur later down the road, especially if England remains neutral, which might make the great war between only the Triple Alliance and the Franco-Russian Entente. Though, if Anglo-German alliances talks of 1898-1901 or even OTL's 1912-1914 Tyrell Mission 'Detente' talks with Berlin could coalesce into some sort of alliance. With England allied to Berlin, WW1 might be drastically reduced to break out as the Franco-Russian Entente will know that they are at a huge disadvantage.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Anglo-German reproachment is not viable so long as germny is stronger than russia in the british estimation. Britain has never been keen on continental hegemons, from Spain to france to Russia to germany and russia again. Germany burst onto the scene with an industrial base that beat the rest of europe, with population and military power to match. If peace holds to the 1920s, then sure, I can see a non hostile Britain, but anything more is unlikely

 

[VonPelt]

Crown Prince Wilhelm was, alas, every bit as unstable as his father. Thus, as he grows older, and more confident, he will become less willing to take direction from his uncle. Thus, we may end up with much the same sort of situation, with respect to arms races and the start of the Great War, as we did in our own time line.

But if he's busy chasing skirts (he was infamous for that IIRC) rather than feel slighted by Britain, the arms race would not happen. And if he did not have the same fixation on the UK, things might go very differently even if he is not less volatile.

 

[Augenis]

Crown Prince Wilhelm was, alas, every bit as unstable as his father. Thus, as he grows older, and more confident, he will become less willing to take direction from his uncle. Thus, we may end up with much the same sort of situation, with respect to arms races and the start of the Great War, as we did in our own time line.

Crown Prince Wilhelm was by and large worse than his father. He mingled with the German far right wholeheartedly even before the war, such as reading and forwarding to his father manifestos by Konstantin von Gebsattel, and was treated as the hope of the Alldeutscher Verband, with all the pan-germanism, anti-semitism and proto-fascism that it entailed. And, of course, in the July Crisis, he favored an even more hardline approach than the government, hoping not just for war, but also for immediate ban of the SPD and an authoritarian regime:

Prince Heinrich, on the other hand, is not going to be some sort of incredible moderator who is going to shape the kronprinz to a modest man and achieve rapprochement with Britain. He was a close ally of Tirpitz (being a navy officer and a member of his clique), and a member of the Navy League, which not only supported the weltpolitik and anti-British strategy, but was also the breeding ground for the late imperial German far right (the DVLP originates in a large part from the Navy League, for example).

In the immediate years leading up to the Great War, Heinrich did show himself to be a moderator, primarily due to his belief that a war with Britain would be undesirable, but once the war began, he had quickly turned to the same side as the Crown Prince himself - and he did not share this scepticism for an European continental war, anyway.

If anything, I would guess that Germany's condition in TTL would be worse than OTL. Through the far right sympathetic Kaiser, radicals such as the Alldeutscher Verband and the Navy League would have an easy access to shaping government policy, and such a hostile, authoritarian Kaiser may as well lead to no Burgfrieden taking place after the start of the war - crippling internal stability.

 

[Nivek]

The biggest difference is that willy 3 couldn't give less of a damn about the Austrians unlike Willy 2 who was FF personal friend, ergot there wouldn't be a blank check or would say Austria to hunt down the terrorist

 

[Nivek]

Due to his young age at 19 years old, Wilhelm III is advised/tutored by his uncle Prince Henry of Prussia on foreign diplomacy and managing Germany.

Prussia doesn't work that way,he is an adult already he could even dismiss his uncle at his first whim

 

[NoMommsen]

Prussia doesn't work that way,he is an adult already he could even dismiss his uncle at his first whim

... well ...
Following the prussian Law regarding age of majority of 1969 (!) the age of majority for the Realm was lowered by the Realms Law of 1975 from 25 to 21.
Given that the House-Laws of the leading dynasties were more 'behind' I would render it rather probable that Wilhelm the III would be declared fully selfresponsible wth 25.

Therefore ... given the 'experience' the political established just had with a 'young Kaiser' (aka Wilhelm II trying to establish his "personal regiment" with between other thing lead to Bismarcks dismissal) I could well see this establishment looking for ways to - at least for some time (not at least to 'properly educate' the young lad) - keep him under supervision.
Some 'special agreements' leading to some guardianship as proposed by Prince Heinrich backed by the laws regarding age of majority would well fit this bill.

 

[Nivek]

... well ...
Following the prussian Law regarding age of majority of 1969 (!) the age of majority for the Realm was lowered by the Realms Law of 1975 from 25 to 21.
Given that the House-Laws of the leading dynasties were more 'behind' I would render it rather probable that Wilhelm the III would be declared fully selfresponsible wth 25.

Therefore ... given the 'experience' the political established just had with a 'young Kaiser' (aka Wilhelm II trying to establish his "personal regiment" with between other thing lead to Bismarcks dismissal) I could well see this establishment looking for ways to - at least for some time (not at least to 'properly educate' the young lad) - keep him under supervision.
Some 'special agreements' leading to some guardianship as proposed by Prince Heinrich backed by the laws regarding age of majority would well fit this bill.

The opposite of anything Willy 3 is already at the helm, with all that entails

 

[NoMommsen]

Let's say that the March 1901 assassination attempt on Kaiser Wilhelm II is fatal, resulting in the early death of the Kaiser. Crown Prince Wilhelm is crowned as Wilhelm III of the German Empire, becoming the fourth Kaiser of the German Empire. Due to his young age at 19 years old, Wilhelm III is advised/tutored by his uncle Prince Henry of Prussia on foreign diplomacy and managing Germany. ...

The 'assassination attempt' of 6th March 1901in Bremen.
... that wasn't one but rather some unlucky accident.

The "assassin" was a 20 year old mentally ill (later rendered epileptical) yard-worker who unfortunatly had at the moment the open coach of the Kaiser passed him suffered a fit thereby throwing an heavyduty iron (550 gramms) fastening-tab up in the air that even more unfortunatly hit the Kaiser.
Though the received cut on his cheekbone left a wee scar it was far from life threatening.

Some better opportunity might have been the female peddler that threw a cleaver after him (but ... luckily?) missed in November 1900 in Breslau. The projectile passed the Kaiser as well as his coach.
... with her feet 'just' slipping in winterly weather somewhat differently than IOTL ...


However ...

I would render it rather questionable to conclude from such rather sparse and rather sensibly conducted positions taken by Prince Heinrich as shown a wholehearted support for Tirpitz as 'deducted' in post #9 . As a 'navalist' he supported the Fleetlaw in the first instance and as well the 1st Novel of 1906 and maybe even of 1908 (though as by the cited texts confirmed rather softening and calming the 'die-hards' as the Naval League and the Kaiser himself) as a technically sensible to important to necessary amandment to the original law. With the Haldane-mission (or some ITTL equivalent) and Heinrichs anglophilia I would strongly question his support for the 3rd Novel of 1912.

With his fathers rather ... unhelping to disforming influence not at least by model removed and his uncles with his rather measured, much mor humble and reflecting influence increased I'm able to see rather possible changes in then Wilhelm III's behavior and positions compared to the person he was in OTL war times as also depicted in post #9.
I agree that IOTL esp. in war times but also even before he was quite some dude but I wouldn't call him 'unstable' or mercurial as in times so distinctive his father was. While the latter showed quite some stubbornness in pursuing his once taken position which often came out of the blue but were less characterized by quick on-off-on-off switching Friedrich Wilhelm Victor August Ernst was a rather wobbly mind actually switching to n' fro postions what wasoften and easyly influenced by others around.
While by common(peoples) law Heinrichs guardianship would end 1903 though it might be probable that in the case of a member of the House of Hohenzollern (not "common" people) the former age-of-majority - 25 - might be applied and the guardianship extended until 1907. Adterwards ... Heinrichs position would depend on the relation the two might have built.
Aalready being King and Kaiser alone though under tutelage (... I wonder what political infights might go with finding the final regulation of who might do what and be responsible for what ... gimme popcorn 'n beverage) would already change during a quite 'forming' time of life the new monarchs behavior, activities, journeys and a damn awfull lot of other personality forming events and occasions. He would be a very different person from what we known of OTL.
Interesting side question here:
Would he still marry Cecilie zu Mecklenburg? Would Friedrich Wilhelm Victor August Ernst now Wilhelm III still visist the wedding of Friedrich Franz IV. of Mecklenburg when IOTL the two fell in love?
Also: would he still become or then stay the philanderer he was IOTL?

 

[Beatriz]

Japan allying with Germany and gaining Indochina and all of Manchuria might prevent the militarists from coming to power

 

[NoMommsen]

So much for the persons now a wee bit for their functions.

IMHO the role the/a Kaiser - or his unclery advisor - had in the bismarckian German Realm seems to be once again grossly overrated (sry to 'bust' such a nice 'simple' way to look not only at alternate history).
The power to shape politics - domestic as well as foreign - were limited to the appointment of the the actual work doing politicians (Chancellor and State Secretaries of the Realm, Prussian Ministerpresident and ministers). These were then bound to find support in the Reichstag and Reichsrat for whatever politics to be pursuited. regardless what some royal might wish in his wettest dream of.
The Kaiser had ofc also an immensly imortant 'propagandistical' function he could use to the better of the realm esp. regarding its reputaion within politics as well as the common people also of foreign contries and thereby shape these contries cpoliticians policy regarding Germany.
Though Kaiser Bill rather tended to have worse to worst effects on that.

Question now should rather be what politcians would serve under the new Kaiser Wilhelm III.?

Bernhard v.Bülow became new Chancellor of the Realm and Prussian ministerpresident just in midth October 1900, planned by Kaiser Bill to become "his Bismarck".
Should IMO not be forgotten that ITTL Wilhelm II would 'go' at the moment he pursuited his "personal regiement" the most. An undertaking by almost none of the occupational politicians in the realm appreciated (as long as they couldn't draw some personal advantage from). After having benifited himself from this 'byzantinism'- becoming Chancellor and Ministerpresident - v.Bülow was a keen opponent to this by himselfs and he at least tried to leash Wilhem II - though rather questionable success.
Things might ve very different in that with the 'new' monarch esp. as long as he' not yet of-age.

But with the Bülow-block behind him, Tirpitz (at that point of time) aside him and rather favorably looked at by Heinrich - and v.Bülows well known abilities in 'networking', flattering and acting-behind-the-scenes esp. regating court matters - I would render it very likely v.Bülow would stay chancellor for quite some years. Possibly he would have an even keener 'eye' on the young monarch so that such gross mishaps as the Hun speech, the Eulenburg-affair, the Daily-Telegraph-affair won't happen.
As already said I render a 3rd Fleetlaw novell as 1912 IOTL rather improbable. Even the 2nd might be questionable as this was already well opposed by v.Bülow due to its financial as well as foreign political 'costs'. In search of financing this novell his poilitical base within the Reichstag broke topped by the Daily-Telegraph v.Bülow resigned.

Therefore I could see v.Bülow staying acting Chancellor and Ministerpresident well beyong 1909. ... and with it the "Weltpolitik" which was much more his making instead Wilhelm IIs boasting.

So ... think of what v. Bülow might have done? ... rather than Wilhelm III.

The german-english arms-race would likely by over in 1908 at least would never become as problematic an issue as IOTL.
With the funds not eaten up by Tirpitz' dreamed of fleets (I doubt the think-first-then-act Heinrich as he proved himself during the war as OdO (CinC Baltic Sea) would have pushed for Tirpitz ITTL) the army might get some more ... and quite some different arms race might or might not take place as the funds might also be invested more into the colonies, some ... 'pet-topic of Heinrich. The army-build-up would likely happen more timely streched than so sudden as IOTL with the 1912/13 Army-law.
Heinrichs experiences in oversea might lead to a no-yellow-peril position in East Asia. How this might affect alliances and some possible russo-japanese war ... and an alliancees network afterwards ...
An Anglo-German alliance ... despite Heinrichs Anglophilia (of which we don't knowe how much Wilhelm III might take over) I would render rather unlikely given v.Bülows reaction to the Entente Cordial framing it as deliberate 'encirclement'.

IMHO there wouldn't be much changes up to ... 1909 aside less political scandals as with Wilhelm II ... though perhaps more "yellow-press" scandals due to Wilhem IIIs womanizing.

As I can't foresee or guess how a continued v.Bülow goverment might handle the/a Russo-Japanes War, the/aBosnian Crisis and ev. subsequent Balkan wars ... all of which could run very different with a more apt german foreign policy (and as such Bülow was much more apt than Bethmann-Hollweg IMHO) ... I would assume that - depending on how the army is lead and set up with who as Chief of the General staff (?) any crisis resembling OTL July crisis would have much less a chance to develop into the Great War as we know it.

 

[Grey Wolf]

A few thoughts

There is a world of difference in being an heir in perpetual waiting and a monarch. The former often gain notorious and unsuitable friends and fall under the influence of radicals because they do not have the role they are bred for, but the waiting position. Once in power, a monarch has a lot more to think about and do, and less time to get entangled with radicals and ne'er do wells.

Heinrich would only ever be an advisor to Wilhelm III, but I think he would be listened to. He might not be followed, but he was a sober, sensible type of guy and the young kaiser would hear him out, then decide what to do.

Germany pursuing a navy to equal France, or outdo Russia, is the sensible level of German naval policy. It does not directly challenge Britain, and it invests the money in the best ships available. There would be more cruisers, and more focus on overseas cruiser warfare. As a result, of course, Britain would not be heading to a gigantic Grand Fleet, but retain the advantage. There would be unlikely to be a jump to the 15" gun and the 13.5" and 14" would reign supreme for much longer. Would the battlecruiser even be invented, or would the uber armoured cruiser (Blucher/Rurik/Defence) see a much longer lifespan, and new iterations into the late 1910s?

 

[NoMommsen]

The opposite of anything ...

... any evidence for?