When?
In GB’s case the ratification was deposited at The Hague November 27 1909 and it was presented to both Houses of Parliament by command of His Majesty, April 1910.
When?
One significant butterfly not mentioned so far: what's the impact on the Influenza pandemic? Is the worst of that event delayed as well?
Might not happen, or at least, it might not be any worse than any other flu epidemic.One significant butterfly not mentioned so far: what's the impact on the Influenza pandemic? Is the worst of that event delayed as well?
One significant butterfly not mentioned so far: what's the impact on the Influenza pandemic? Is the worst of that event delayed as well?
I'd guess presumably Gavrilo Princip chose another cafe to sit at, and so never got the chance to assassinate the Archduke. Or the driver actually asked the directions to the hospital beforehand, and so didn't get lost.Do we know why war wasn't triggered in 1914? The fate of Franz Ferdinand one way or the other would have a great effect on the politics and the military of the Dual Monarchy. Also, I call ASB on Prinzip; two shots fired, two kills of moving targets, after a couple of days practice with his weapon?
Nor would it have affected as many due to those soldiers never being called up, and thus not spending weeks in cramped training camps.Probably butterflied totally. It came with American troops who of course not be here now. And even if influenza still occurs in 1918 it not be so devastate when people health not so badly due lakc of war.
I'd guess presumably Gavrilo Princip chose another cafe to sit at, and so never got the chance to assassinate the Archduke. Or the driver actually asked the directions to the hospital beforehand, and so didn't get lost.
Nor would it have affected as many due to those soldiers never being called up, and thus not spending weeks in cramped training camps.
Well, not so much a sandwich as the particular cafe that he picked to have it at.Weird to think a direct cause of the war breaking out in 1914 was a sandwich
Might not happen, or at least, it might not be any worse than any other flu epidemic.
The flu will be much more restricted to the US, and the infected will be much more likely to be quarantined (they didn't do quarantine OTL due to needing those troops for the war).The Spanish Flu epidemic is actually likely to be much worse. It killed by triggering an overreaction by the immune system. Healthy people with a strong immune system but not the specific immunity to the flu were the most vulnerable. Eliminate the mass hunger, the disrupted sanitation and the millions of war wounded, the casualties from the flu should be much higher- though far less than the flu + World War I as in Otl
Or the driver taking a wrong turn. There was still the assassination attempt by Čabrinović who was captured after throwing the grenade that bounced of the Archdukes car and exploded under the trailing car that may have ramifications.Weird to think a direct cause of the war breaking out in 1914 was a sandwich
That was less of a coincidence, the route had been publicised after all.Or the driver taking a wrong turn. There was still the assassination attempt by Čabrinović who was captured after throwing the grenade that bounced of the Archdukes car and exploded under the trailing car that may have ramifications.
This is why Zuber has so many critics.
The debate in France over the three year law is about whether the money would be better spent building up the reserves. Given that the 3 year law didn't add a single man to the French line (they reduced the number of reservists in each division), its quite likely that the 1,200,000,000 francs that would be saved would have done miracles with the French reservists. That the end of the 3 year law would delay mobilization by 3 days and preclude an early offensive is a bonus. The French were also going to modern uniforms. The French would probably improve quite a lot relative to the German
As for the 12 extra German divisions that might have been raised: Its hard to see how they are going to find any march route given the clogged roads of 1914. The Belgian army was also expanding by about 6 divisions, so the gain isn't great.
Meanwhile, the Russians were going to cut their mobilization down to about 21 days- meaning the end of the gap where Germany could fight France and not Russia. The Russian Baltic fleet would also have been to the point that the Russians would no longer fear a Germany landing- freeing up about 20 divisions
The real problem for the Central Powers is the collapse of Austria's posiiton. Serbia was doubling its army, so that would take up about 10 divisions. Romania was drifting fast into the Entente camp. King Carol was about the only thing left tying them to the Central Powers. In 1914, the Russians deployed six divisions to watch the Romanian border while Austria relied on King Carol's assurances and left their border open. That situation would likely be reversed, tying down another dozen Austrian divisions. Then there's Italy- who hated Franz Ferdinand with a passion and was recovering from the Libyan war. They might join the Entente pretty quick with FF on the throne. Add it all together, and the Austrians might need to raise 30 divisions just to stay even. Not happening
Henriette Caillaux put 4 of 6 slugs into Gaston Calmette and she'd only fired a gun for the first time when she bought the automatic that day. To top it off she was acquitted on the grounds of her 'uncontrollable female emotions' resulting in a crime of passion.Also, I call ASB on Prinzip; two shots fired, two kills of moving targets, after a couple of days practice with his weapon?
Henriette Caillaux put 4 of 6 slugs into Gaston Calmette and she'd only fired a gun for the first time when she bought the automatic that day. To top it off she was acquitted on the grounds of her 'uncontrollable female emotions' resulting in a crime of passion.
The flu will be much more restricted to the US, and the infected will be much more likely to be quarantined (they didn't do quarantine OTL due to needing those troops for the war).
Will A-H actually be a single country in 1920? Will they make it through the 1917 Ausgleich negotiations?
You never mention Austria. Seeing how bad they were OTL and how they were the last to start to reform their military they can improve the most in the timeframe I think. As I also stated earlier simply the removal of Conrad would be a huge boost to them. Serbia might doubling its army but the austrian would be much stronger compared to OTL as well.
If Romania leaves the CP it means that Austria can fortify the border - seeing that the terrain thats not that hard to do and could have great results. Same is true for Italy.
And if Germany abandones the Schlieffen plan because of the same reasons you listed (mainly the faster Russian mobilization) thats a huge boost to diplomacy. By 1920 the relations between Germany and Great Brittain have likely improved and between Russia and Brittain soured. Add to this that there is no German invasion of Belgium and the brits are likely out. That means that Germany and the CP's cant be blokaded and thats the most important of any possible changes.
Also if Brittain is not engaged on the entente side Japan's position might be very interesting. Their main rivals were the russians and the USA. They could attack either side for easy pickings.
3) Great Britain isn't abandoning France for Germany. If Britain tried to move towards Germany, she is likely to see the Russians and the Germans kiss and make up and face a united continent. How does Britain help Germany? The Germans are looking at 200 French and Russian divisions on their border in three weeks, do you think they give a rat's ass about Britain's six? The last thing the British want is for the victorious Franco-Russian coalition to turn on Britain
4) Japan? What on Earth is Japan going to do for Germany? If Japan attacks, doubtful, the Russians will simply ignore them until they defeat Germany. After Berlin is occupied and the German fleet turned over, defeating Japan would be icing on the cake
Diplomatically, the interesting thing would have been Franz Ferdinand. He always advocated a peaceful policy and reconciliation with Russia. In the 1890s, he cahmpioned Beck's proposal to split the Balkans. Roughly, this would give Russia Romania, Bulgaria and the straits while Austria got Serbia, Montenegro and Albania. The problem is that by 1914 such a simple division is no longer possible