Well the loaded weight of the Ilya Muromets was ~12,000 lb, so plenty of room to grow. In fact, none of the WW1 heavy bombers hit even half that weight, so yeah, I think, for the time being, that that particular point won't be much of an issue.
WI: WWI Delayed till 1920
- Thread starter iddt3
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Ok, so a few countries including Russia will have bigger aircraft with better range. And better use of sea planes and such And a lot of newer technology in war ships and a lot of new battleships. So basically the German Fleet is in WORSE shape and the Zeppelin is not as useful.
So why would the war happen? Did everyone in Germany go insane? And without German how does this become a world war? France may want to join in but if Germany declares itself Neutral then France can’t easily get anyplace and has no excuse to attack Germany and without that if they tried to attack Germany everyone would turn against them.
England is not getting involved if Germany is not aggressive and sure won’t if France starts the war.
So how do you even HAVE World War 1 without Germany and England? And probably not France?
So why would the war happen? Did everyone in Germany go insane? And without German how does this become a world war? France may want to join in but if Germany declares itself Neutral then France can’t easily get anyplace and has no excuse to attack Germany and without that if they tried to attack Germany everyone would turn against them.
England is not getting involved if Germany is not aggressive and sure won’t if France starts the war.
So how do you even HAVE World War 1 without Germany and England? And probably not France?
This would lead to a return to an Heir Presumptive as was the case before the Tsarevith was born in 1904 with the Tsar's brother Grand Duke Michael. What were his views on diplomatic and foreign concerns of Russia?
The Alliance system was originally based on Bismarcks attempt to isolate France and avoid a two-front war. Wilhelm II's over-confidence in the Schleiffen Plan as a means to win a two-front war, and his underestimating of his personal influence over his cousin Nicholas II, leads him to end the non aggression pact with Russia and rely on the public Triple Alliance to keep Russia out of any war Germany may have to fight against France, as well as with his relatives in Britain whom he wrongly assumed would not fight on the continent.
But by 1920, Italy, which waned at the outbreak of War in 1914 and eventually joined the Allies in 1915, might no longer be allied to Germany and Austria-Hungary. They may even be allied with France over her shared rival interests against Austria-Hungary in Southern Europe. An Emperor Franz Ferdinand will be dealing with internal ethnic issues, and though he most likely will stay allied with Germany because of a possible threat on its eastern border against Russia, and former ally Italy now possibly on opposing sides, he would likely not want to risk any aggressive moves in the Balkans that may threaten a war to both his eastern and southern borders.
Germany may need to rethink its strategy without Italy, whom they will have lost as a prospective ally at France's southern border, and consider toning down their naval and colonial rivalry with Britain in an attempt to keep her from joining with Russia in any alliance against them. This could be feasible because Russia by 1920 may pose a threat to the British in areas such as Afghanistan, the Middle East, and of course how the British might deem Russia to be a threat to their Empire's crown jewel colony of India.
Maybe if things hold off till 1920, common sense, which was completely absent it seems in 1914, will prevail in 1920.
But by 1920, Italy, which waned at the outbreak of War in 1914 and eventually joined the Allies in 1915, might no longer be allied to Germany and Austria-Hungary. They may even be allied with France over her shared rival interests against Austria-Hungary in Southern Europe. An Emperor Franz Ferdinand will be dealing with internal ethnic issues, and though he most likely will stay allied with Germany because of a possible threat on its eastern border against Russia, and former ally Italy now possibly on opposing sides, he would likely not want to risk any aggressive moves in the Balkans that may threaten a war to both his eastern and southern borders.
Germany may need to rethink its strategy without Italy, whom they will have lost as a prospective ally at France's southern border, and consider toning down their naval and colonial rivalry with Britain in an attempt to keep her from joining with Russia in any alliance against them. This could be feasible because Russia by 1920 may pose a threat to the British in areas such as Afghanistan, the Middle East, and of course how the British might deem Russia to be a threat to their Empire's crown jewel colony of India.
Maybe if things hold off till 1920, common sense, which was completely absent it seems in 1914, will prevail in 1920.
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if Italy switch sides and Russia becomes too strong Germany and Britain would become allies in order to keep the Power Balance. the Portuguese Empire has been petitioned between Germany and Britain in this world. I can see French and British relations being at a low. the warlord era in China is now in full swing to Russia France Japan Britain and possibly Germany will be carving up China with warlords thay support.
Archduke Franz Ferdinand will most likely be Emperor and a strong friend of Wilhelm II will most likely remain allies.
the British Russians and French will be circling the Ottoman Empire looking for potential weaknesses or have already exploited said weaknesses to their advantage leading to a civil war or a collapse of the state this could be your spark for the world war you want but I think Germany at this point would have written them off
if the Armenians Kurds Arabs and Palestinians all rise up at once or in quick succession there will be no point in trying to prop up the Ottoman Empire especially with three other great Powers trying to rip it down to the ground.
basically if you delayed World War end game colonialism begins Italy most likely tries again invading Ethiopia European powers intervene in Chinese warlord era and the ottoman Empire's most likely going through Rebellion / Civil War due to foreign support for Rebel groups you might see Bulgaria actually tried to take advantage of this and declare war on the Ottoman Empire also in my opinion I can see Home rule becoming a bloody affair
you might see a world war at the end of the 1920s look at the beginning there too much stuff that is going on in my opinion
Archduke Franz Ferdinand will most likely be Emperor and a strong friend of Wilhelm II will most likely remain allies.
the British Russians and French will be circling the Ottoman Empire looking for potential weaknesses or have already exploited said weaknesses to their advantage leading to a civil war or a collapse of the state this could be your spark for the world war you want but I think Germany at this point would have written them off
if the Armenians Kurds Arabs and Palestinians all rise up at once or in quick succession there will be no point in trying to prop up the Ottoman Empire especially with three other great Powers trying to rip it down to the ground.
basically if you delayed World War end game colonialism begins Italy most likely tries again invading Ethiopia European powers intervene in Chinese warlord era and the ottoman Empire's most likely going through Rebellion / Civil War due to foreign support for Rebel groups you might see Bulgaria actually tried to take advantage of this and declare war on the Ottoman Empire also in my opinion I can see Home rule becoming a bloody affair
you might see a world war at the end of the 1920s look at the beginning there too much stuff that is going on in my opinion
Dollars will kick in eventually. If not for the price of ships, for the price of enlarged infrastructure to support the ever growing ships. The only surety is that the Brits will out build everyone except maybe the Americans because they can afford to skimp on their army.
Someone mentioned motorizing armed forces above. Who would be doing it? The Brits leap out with their small army and secure oil supplies. I can see potential interest on the continent but no one can afford it beyond light horse type units. It is certainly more realistic than tanks.
Driftless
Donor
Big IF.... The US starts to ramp up its ground forces by 1920, then mechanization might pick up there. Even the woebegone Pancho Villa Expeditionary Force of 1916-17 was a mix of automotive and horse units. The US Army had tested 4x4 cars as early as 1912, so there's some precedent there.
*edit* From an old FourWheeler magazine article:
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History Learner
Banned
Russia better, Austria better, France worse.
Pages 176-177 of The Real German War Plan – 1904-14 by Terence Zuber
Pages 176-177 of The Real German War Plan – 1904-14 by Terence Zuber
History Learner
Banned
France is effectively neutralized, the Germans can focus solely on the Russians or do as IOTL and mob the French with superior numbers and logistics.
The immediate cause of Ottoman entry won't be there, so they might jump either way, or stay neutral.
One challenge the rest of the world has in matters naval is the sheer number of BIG ships the USA can build at once. Six Lexingtons AND six South Dakotas on the ways at the same time, with Washington already launched.
Also, I suspect that the USA, at least, will experiment with motorization even more; motor vehicles are cheaper to maintain, and don't eat when not in use.
One challenge the rest of the world has in matters naval is the sheer number of BIG ships the USA can build at once. Six Lexingtons AND six South Dakotas on the ways at the same time, with Washington already launched.
Also, I suspect that the USA, at least, will experiment with motorization even more; motor vehicles are cheaper to maintain, and don't eat when not in use.
And that is a bad thing?
A France that can't afford to champ at the bit for revanche is probably a good thing. Focused on defense France might prove to be able to respond more appropriately than their OTL effort.
And as France declines in relevance to Germany, Russia is increasingly industrialized and threatening. As was mentioned earlier, maybe even enough to make Britain rethink its priorities.
and the Empire threw in an additional two (New Zealand and Australia).
It's more than that. With more effective bombers, you could easily see them going after railways and other transport links, and also see the adoption of the idea of paratroops.
Here is the impact of war on GB's GDP, wow look at that increase over the blue dashed line of pre war trend!
If we adjust for inflation (dashed Orange line).
The war knocked off 15 years of GDP. 1930 is the new 1945?
Russia, 20 years lost population (blue pre-war trend)?
The pre-war explosion in innovation in aircraft types that collapsed during the war?
If we adjust for inflation (dashed Orange line).
The war knocked off 15 years of GDP. 1930 is the new 1945?
Russia, 20 years lost population (blue pre-war trend)?
The pre-war explosion in innovation in aircraft types that collapsed during the war?
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Or that the Hague Peace Convention, due in 1915, would seek to set rules on the military use of airpower just as the 1907 Convention had focused on Naval.
Article XIV - Prohibiting the Discharge of Projectiles and Explosives from Balloons. The Hague, 18 October 1907.
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/INTRO/245?OpenDocument
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The cost of battleships by the ton is pretty flat from 1900 - 1914 and would continue.
The French have invested in large docks up to 130 ft wide, GB settled for 110ft. Germans are limited by the Wilhelmshaven Locks.
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I don't think you could get anyone to sign a deal preventing bombs being dropped, it's just too useful a tactic.
I wonder if anything changes noticably in rocketry? Does six years more research in this show much?