WI: Would this PoD win the Civil war for the Confederacy ?

[Kaiser of Brazil]

The point of divergence from our timeline starts at the Battle of Shiloh: Ulysses S. Grant is shot at the Battle of Shiloh by friendly fire, while General Johnston is not injured. Instead, he leads the Confederate forces into capturing Pittsburgh landing by the night and routing the army of Tennessee.

Now, while the Confederacy has a better situation in the West, much of the Eastern front until Antietam is the same. Lee decides against launching an invasion of the North, instead preparing for a next Union offensive and planning a decisive battle to break the Army of the Potomac. Desiring a big victory to make his Emancipation Proclamation, Lincoln sacks the hesitant and overcautious General George McClellan and appointed the aggressive Ambrose Burnside. Burnside launched another offensive into Virginia, where he clashed against Lee's prepared defenses at the Battle of North Anna River on September 8th 1862.

Burnside destroyed his own army at several attempts of breaking the prepared and well-entrenched Confederates. A large scale flank attack delivered by Stonewall Jackson's Corps at the second day of battle would finish up the disaster for the Army of the Potomac. It was the worst military defeat in US History and for some historians was the beggining of the end for the Union.

Following the Union disaster, the Northern morale was in a all-time low, and using that opportunity, Lee started his invasion of the North. Over 70,000 Confederate troops crossed into Maryland on the 13th of September, surprising the Army of the Potomac at the battle of Boonsboro. Burnside's exhausted army was caught by surprise, and after a day of battle, the Confederates emerged victorious with the destruction of a third of the remaining Army of the Potomac.

The victory at Boonsboro was followed by the fall of Baltimore a few weeks later, surrounding Washington and causing panic in the White House. This was only worsened by the News of a Victory by General Johnston at Perryville against General Sherman, threatening to capture all of Kentucky.

Sensing the direction where the winds were blowing, the United Kingdom offered to mediate a peace treaty between the Union and the Confederacy, which ended up being accepted with much reluctance by Lincoln on the 1st of October of 1862.

 

[Virginia Liberal]

With no invasion little Mac won't get command back. It would most likely go to Hooker. Burnsides didnt want command when he got it in the lead up to Fredericksburg. That said your North Anna battle will play out more like Chancellorsville than Fredericksburg.

 

[Marc]

Well, you have two non-linked events happening.
And both by themselves assuming unlikely outcomes or decisions.

To quote from an AH thread some years ago by dgharis: Grant's death does not necessarily result in a Union defeat. The Confederates were exhausted by the end of the first day and Lew Wallace's division and Buell's divisions were arriving to reinforce the Army of the Tennessee. The Confederates are going to be forced to retreat the next day, Grant or no Grant.
To that I would add, Johnson alive or dead.

Lee not going on the offense in '62 is almost demanding a personality change. And this, quoting now from the American Battlefield Trust:
Lee is eager to take the fight into the State of Maryland, a slave holding state. Lee is hopeful that the Marylanders will rise up in support of his army and that his "invasion" will be more of a liberation. Lee's army is already short of food and supplies and hopes to secure considerable support from sympathetic citizens of Maryland.
To that I would add that the military adage that an army marches on its stomach holds very true.

But okay, if you want a wank then yes, your supposing is as good as any. But plausible? Sorry, but I don't think so, particularly since you need multiple perfect rolls of the dice.

 

[Old1812]

Lee really doesn't have too much of a choice in late 62, he can:
1) Stay on the defensive in Virginia, where there is very little food and forage to sustain his army, or
2) Go on the offensive into Maryland, where as far as he knows there are plenty of Confederate sympathizers ready to welcome him, and hopefully go on into Pennsylvania, where he can feed his army and maybe even cut communications with Washington and the rest of the country.

Option 2 is risky (especially with hindsight), but Lee had to take it.

 

[Fiver]

At Shiloh, AS Johnston was acting as a glorified brigade commander while PGT Beauregard ran the battle. Johnston's survival has no significant chance to change to the battle, and long-term is a significant handicap to the confederacy as Johnston was out of his depth as both army commander and theater commander. Grant's death would have hurt Union morale and long-term Union chances, but there was no way the Confederates could have seized Pittsburgh landing by nightfall, and they still would have had to retreat due to lack of supplies. A more credible POD is instead of being lightly wounded, Sherman is severely wounded and unable to rally the troops the way he did in OTL. This still doesn't win the Battle of Shiloh for the Confederacy, but the greater casualties and confusion would probably result in Grant being shunted off to secondary commands, which would significantly impair the Union war effort.

Lee not going on the offensive in 1862 is wildly unlikely, for reasons others have already noted. Lee was always planning for a decisive battle to break the Union army, which is the reason he lost. Pope wasn't relieved of command till September 12, so if Lincoln chose to also remove McClellan it probably wouldn't be earlier than September 15 and is more likely to happen around November 5, the day McClellan was relieved in OTL. Burnside, though deeply flawed, was a better general than many give him credit for - early in the war Burnside captured most of the ports on the North Carolina coast and late in the war he repulse Longstreet at Knoxville.

When Burnside moved south, Lee would try to intercept him as soon as possible, not wait behind the North Anna River. Best case, the Confederates get something like OTL's Battle of Fredericksburg, but they might not fare that well in an ATL. In OTL, Burnside stole a march on Lee. Had the pontoon bridges arrived in time, he would have beaten Lee to Fredericksburg. Had General Franklin committed more than Meade's division, or given them any support, Lee would have lost at Fredericksburg. If Lee does entrench at the North Anna, there is a good chance Burnside would sidestep, possibly resulting in a meeting engagement around Gordonsville or Mechanicsburg. If Burnside did attack entrenched positions at the North Anna, it probably would go as OTL's Battle of Fredericksburg. There is very little chance Burnside would make so many attacks that he destroyed his own army. Also, like OTL's Fredericksburg, the need to resupply would keep Lee from pursuing the withdrawing Federals.

A Lee too cautious to invade Maryland in August would be too cautious to invade Maryland in December. Had he tried, people might be talking of Lee's Mud March. He would have no chance of seizing Baltimore or even laying siege. In TTL, Sherman would not supersede Buell. Any version of the Battle of Perryville would almost certainly be butterflied away. OTL's Perryville was fought against a Confederate army that was already retreating, and the Confederacy did about as well as could be expected. Substituting AS Johnston for Bragg is more likely to result in a disaster for the Confederates than destruction of Buell's army.

Even with your very accelerated timeline, Britain wouldn't even get news of Lee's victories until around October 1. At which point, Britain might consider offering mediation, but they would spend weeks trying to get other European powers on board, probably unsuccessfully. at which point Lincoln would refuse negotiation.

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

A Lee too cautious to invade Maryland in August would be too cautious to invade Maryland in December.

He isn't invading in December.

 

[James Ricker]

The Confederacy is locked into a war of attrition, they can't win that

 

[UCB79]

Yeah but Burnside was such an incompetent that I wouldn’t put any kind of blunder- no matter how big- by him.

 

[Kerney]

The Confederacy is locked into a war of attrition, they can't win that

There two basic views of the Confederacy. One is that they are in an impossible war of attrition. The other is that they can hold out until US moral breaks.

Truthfully, we don't know and people can bring evidence on both sides, but if we assume the latter, it is easy come up with an 1862 PoD.

 

[Marc]

There two basic views of the Confederacy. One is that they are in an impossible war of attrition. The other is that they can hold out until US moral breaks.

Truthfully, we don't know and people can bring evidence on both sides, but if we assume the latter, it is easy come up with an 1862 PoD.

Well, there is always the element of luck. In real history, the South has that edge the first year or two. Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia could have been effectively destroyed at the battle of Antietam. Grant could have taken Vicksburg very early in 1863, and so on.
It's actually, if sentimentally unpopular, much easier to create a supposing that South surrenders in by the spring of '64, if not earlier.

 

[Kerney]

Well, there is always the element of luck. In real history, the South has that edge the first year or two. Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia could have been effectively destroyed at the battle of Antietam. Grant could have taken Vicksburg very early in 1863, and so on.
It's actually, if sentimentally unpopular, much easier to create a supposing that South surrenders in by the spring of '64, if not earlier.

Yes, the South could loose sooner. You could probably find a few scenarios we're they last a few months longer. But both are besides the point of this thread.

The point is, can you find PoD for Confederate victory starting with Shiloh. If you accept that the Confederacy had a chance, the answer is yes.

 

[Fiver]

Yeah but Burnside was such an incompetent that I wouldn’t put any kind of blunder- no matter how big- by him.

Burnside was flawed, but he was good enough to beat Longstreet, one of the Confederacy's best, and shut down most of the North Carolina coastline.

 

[Fiver]

The point is, can you find PoD for Confederate victory starting with Shiloh. If you accept that the Confederacy had a chance, the answer is yes.

One certainly could find a plausible PoD starting at Shiloh, that could lead to Confederate independence. The scenario presented in the OP, while more plausible than some published AHs, is not plausible.