WI: USA declares war on Germany in 1939

[Abraham Washington]

What if the United States declared war on Germany on September 3, 1939 and joined the allies from the very start?

Is this even possible?

Could American involvement end the war sooner?

Would Japan still attack Pearl Harbour, could Japan entering the war occur sooner?

What would the post-war world look like?

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

It'd be pretty unpopular without a good justification in terms of US interests, especially since the war is continental and in the Phony War stage.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

How? The US public was bitterly against participating in another war. IOTL it was only after the success of the Germans in conquering France AND Japan had attacked the US and then Hitler declaring war on the US that the US was able to declare war on the Axis powers. Even with the US public supporting aid to Britain in 1940-1 they weren't willing to join the war unless the Axis declared war on them first.

 

[David T]

I think this Gallup poll shows just how unrealistic the idea was:

OCTOBER 6

WAR WITH GERMANY

Interviewing Date 9/24-29/39

Survey #171-A Question #6a

What should be the policy in the present European war? Should we declare war and send our army and navy abroad to fight Germany?

Yes................................ 5%

No................................ 95

http://ibiblio.org/pha/Gallup/Gallup 1939.htm

***
Of course one reason for this is that few people thought that there was much danger of an Allied defeat:

Interviewing Date 9/1-6/39

Survey #I68-SA Question #1b

Which side do you think will win the war?

Allies.............................. 82%

Germany........................... 7

Qualified, no opinion................. 11

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

That all nails it from the US side. You need PoDs reaching back two years or two decades to get the US willingly into war in 1939. Most of the PoD that are remotely practical involve gross diplomatic bungling by the nazis. Things like being outed on their attempts to manipulate US currency or banking, or having someone associated with the Bund assassinate a prominent US politician, frequent public insults of US leaders & the US citizenry, seizing the property of US business owners/citizens operating in Ceschoslovakia, the same in Germany. In example of the last were Goering to have a stupid attack and confiscate Fords share of the automotive plant in Germany would outrage Henry and lose Germany a major ally in the US. Ditto were the Reichsbank to double cross Chase Bank on their joint ventures and make a enemy of the Rockefeller family.

It would take multiple incidents to break the anti war & isolationist sentiment in the US through German bungling.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

That all nails it from the US side. You need PoDs reaching back two years or two decades to get the US into war in 1939. Most of the PoD that are remotely practical involve gross diplomatic bungling by the nazis. Things like being outed on their attempts to manipulate US currency or banking, or having someone associated with the Bund assassinate a prominent US politician, frequent public insults of US leaders & the US citizenry, seizing the property of US business owners/citizens operating in Ceschoslovakia, the same in Germany. In example of the last were Goering to have a stupid attack and confiscate Fords share of the automotive plant in Germany would outrage Henry and lose Germany a major ally in the US. Ditto were the Reichsbank to double cross Chase Bank on their joint ventures and make a enemy of the Rockefeller family.

It would take multiple incidents to break the anti war & isolationist sentiment in the US through German bungling.

As it was there was major bungling of a huge spy ring and that wasn't enough to get the USA into the war in 1940:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duquesne_Spy_Ring

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Ya, the Japanese sank a US warship, and the commercial ships it was escorting, then beat up a US diplomat. Was a brief war scare over that but the Japanese damage control defused it instantly.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Ya, the Japanese sank a US warship, and the commercial ships it was escorting, then beat up a US diplomat. Was a brief war scare over that but the Japanese damage control defused it instantly.

Well it also helped the US was nowhere near ready for war in 1937, nor economically stable enough to lose Japanese trade through embargo.

 

[Citycat]

Let's run with the OP's scenario, and the US starts mobilising and sending troops to France in late 1939. Would this be sufficient to prevent the Fall of France 9 months later?

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Let's run with the OP's scenario, and the US starts mobilising and sending troops to France in late 1939. Would this be sufficient to prevent the Fall of France 9 months later?

Given how atrocious the US army was initially in North Africa, I'm not sure the green troops would have done much good, especially since they'd have had little hardening during the "Phoney War" period. Also, the US economy was in even worse shape in 1939 than it was in 1941. The real advantage would be in terms of early B-17 action and possibly the US navy (though Happy Time/Drumbeat is still quite likely thanks to Admiral King).

 

[zert]

As stated there would need to be some serious PODs to get the US in the War that early. That given I think the US will need time to get the military trained up and equipped. Come May 1940 it will still be a close thing.

 

[Apollo 20]

The answer to this may perhaps be found in the fact that an extension of conscript service from one year to 2 1/2 years (commonly known as the draft extension bill) passed Congress by one vote. In the summer of 1941, August 12 to be precise. The fact of the matter is that there was really very little appetite for involvement in the European war until Pearl Harbor. FDR had to pull every maneuver he could think of just to get the US involved as a non-combatant through programs like Lend-Lease. Had FDR tried to get the US involved in 1939, he would have been run out of office in 1940 if not before.

 

[Cook]

Let's run with the OP's scenario, and the US starts mobilising and sending troops to France in late 1939. Would this be sufficient to prevent the Fall of France 9 months later?

No; the US standing army in 1939 was smaller than that of Greece, and was very poorly equipped to boot. There air force was equally small. The navy was the only armed force that was significant.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

No; the US standing army in 1939 was smaller than that of Greece, and was very poorly equipped to boot. There air force was equally small. The navy was the only armed force that was significant.

This. By the time the Battle of France happens, the US military would still be stuck trying organize it's mobilizing formations. It wouldn't be in any condition to deploy overseas until '41, at the earliest. It is possible that the political boost to French morale from having the US as an ally is enough to make them decide to continue the fight in exile instead of surrendering, which has all sorts of implications for North Africa and the Pacific even before American forces show up on the scene.

 

[E-Man]

Agree that 1939 US involvement is not realistic, but many of you have indicted repeatedly on this site how near ASB/superwank the Battle of France went in Germany's favor in TTL, if you stack the odds even more in the favor of the Allies somethings got to give. US Army may have been small/raw at the time but would not the US have been able to contribute needed materiel? If Battle of France start date stays the same, wouldn't US industry be cranking out enough decent aircraft, tanks, radios, trucks, etc. to potentially change the balance? As is so often stated here the Axis needed lucky break after lucky break to succeed: seems it would not take much to push Axis chances into ASB land. I would also think that adding US navy/shipping to Allied cause would have at least some positive contribution; would this not free up resources for the Brits? If Japan does not act, how would US carriers have been utilized under this scenario?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Set the PoD back a few years & alter just a little the US Army mobilization & a difference starts to show. The battle of France was a close run thing, in the German view. In the air the difference becomes very marked. France was unable to purchase modern aircraft in the US until the autum of 1939 when the Nuetrality Acts were voted out & the Cash/Carry policy made legal. Move that back a year or two and the cash infusion spins up US aircraft industry that much sooner. Stagnated R & D accelerates and construction of manufactoring space starts earlier. OTL French orders for US built aircraft started Oct 1939, despite limited factory space operating then 600 airframes were delivered by June 1940 & 1,200 more scheduled by Dec 1940. Set that schedule forward a year, or just six months, & not only does France have 1,200 to 1,800 additional modern aircraft by May 1940, but there is time to convert the aircrew from their obsolete models to the new.

... If Japan does not act, how would US carriers have been utilized under this scenario?

In April 1940 OTL roughly half the US Navy was in the Atlantic Fleet, including two carriers. That may or may not waive away poor decisions for the Scandinavian campaign but it adds a huge mass of combat power to be drawn on for it. Unlike the Brits & French the USN had stood up a specialized amphibious corps for the Atlantic fleet, which can resolve some of the Allied problems, assuming the leaders make a few decisions better.

 

[thaddeus]

wouldn't it have been easier to sell U.S. public on fighting CommuNazi Axis? if that looked a more durable alliance.

for instance a quick invasion of both Poland and Romania (or parts of Romania as it was split in 1940)

 

[Admiral Beez]

Is the USA is guaranteeing Poland's security? Does that spark its declaration of war?

 

[Dave Howery]

The US might be able to hustle up it's recruitment/draft and get a lot of men into uniform fast. It might be able to speed up production of small arms and vehicles. But the navy... is there really a way to speed that up? Those capital ships take a long time to build... could the US speed up the production of smaller vessels?

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

wouldn't it have been easier to sell U.S. public on fighting CommuNazi Axis? if that looked a more durable alliance.

for instance a quick invasion of both Poland and Romania (or parts of Romania as it was split in 1940)

A CommuNaziJap (their term) peril is virtually a given to scare enough people into a war footing simply because the people against fighting Reds also have to fight Fascists, vice versa, and Japan wants the Pacific. Yeah, that's a good POD.