IOTL the treaty broke in just about a year, what if it lasted for 5 years, or prevents all Napoleonic wars? How does the rest of the 19th century develop?
WI: Treaty of Amiens created a longer peace?
- Thread starter sirjackalot
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raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
France might not realize how lucky it is compared to other timelines. It would have "natural borders" while it holds.
That depends on what you men by "natural" border, since it would not have the rhineborder. The Batavian Republic still had land south of the rhine
Yes, France had annexed the German part south and west of the rhine, but not the Dutch parts. Well not all the Dutch parts at least, they did annex what is now Limburg and Zeelandic Flanders, but not Dutch Brabant and southern Gelderland. It annexed those in 1810, a couple of months before it annexed the rest of the Netherlands (which is why I always considered the French claims of their "natural" borders just an excuse for expansionism, when they finaly got them, a couple of months later they simply crossed the rhine).
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raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
It was transparently exactly that. It's just a pretext to expand or conquer, creating a third party rationale beyond greed or desire to justify getting something. Sort of like 'manifest destiny'. Even the claim of saying a country is not "viable", or "indefensible" without certain territories is just a pretext to press a claim to desired land, not some sort of objective truth.
Exactly. France was not particularly committed to that peace and England was determined to not keep its side of the pact.
That’s true but the theory of the natural borders did exist all the way into mid-XIX and was reasonably popular in Europe. Of course, in the case of Nappy the expansions went well beyond what was considered the natural borders for France
yrenees, Alps and the Rhine.A standard argument for France was that Paris was too close to the Northern border and that there are no natural obstacles for the enemy advancing from that direction (Vauban saw the remedy in building the line of fortifications on the Northern border).
Needless to say that most of the European countries did not have that type of the borders and that France was not the only one trying to grab everything that was possible disregarding the theory.
Having a vassal “sister republic” and then kingdom was adequate for the task of defense. Nappy’s annexation was, IIRC, dictated mostly by a greater convenience of the resource squeezing (and enforcement of the CS).
That and his brother when he was ruling the kingdom of Holland was actualy looking at the interests of Holland itself and the people living there, instead of the interest of France and the person ruling it.
Mind you, that has nothing to do with the proposed POD. The kingdom of Holland was founded after the treaty of Amiens. At the time of the treaty it was still the Batavian Republic.
5 years of peace? Ok Napoleon doesn't annex Holland, Genoa, or Switzerland. The British evacuate Malta, and everyone trades with each other on agreed terms. Napoleon sends another 20,000 troops to his brother in law, Leclerc for his genocidal war in Haiti, and another 20,000 soldiers, sailors, scientists, merchants, and adventures on an expedition to Pondicherry, to advance French interests in India, and South East Asia. He sends another 10,000 troops, and officials to New Orleans, to cement French Control over the vast Louisiana Territory. He orders a major construction program for the French Navy, for a fleet of 80 Ships of the Line, and 50 Frigates to be ready by 1807. He continued to strengthen, and perfect the Grand Army while continuing to cultivate new leadership.
In his 1803 message to Congress President Thomas Jefferson reluctantly proposes a defense budget providing for 4 new improved 44 Gun Frigates, and 4, 90 Gun Ships of the Line. The Regular Army is to now have an authorized strength of 500 officers, and 10,000 enlisted men, and new coastal & frontier forts, and magazines are to be constructed . He further requests the various states increase their ready militia strength by 5,000 men, and to raise public contributions for 4 new 36 Gun Proscription Frigates. Jefferson argues the cost of his program will be less then the $10,000,000 the United States was prepared to pay France for the purchase of New Orleans.
The president nominates Alexander Hamilton as Secretary of War, and dispatches the pro British, anti French former Secretary of State Timothy Pickering to London, as Special Envoy to the Court of St James, to settle outstanding issues, and to come to an understanding regarding mutual national security issues. The end of Impressment, and the Orders in Council removed the major issues creating tensions between the two nations, and by the Spring of 1804 a new treaty was ready for ratification, along with some informal assurances by both parties.
Congressmen, and other prominent citizens in the Western States begin to push for a war against France, and Spain. This faction comes to be known as the War Hawks. Among them is Andrew Jackson of Tennessee, who offers his services to lead organized militia units in an effort to secure the lower Mississippi for the United States. He further advocates for seizing West Florida, and the port of Pensacola, and subduing the Indians in the Mississippi, and Alabama Territories.
As agreed the British evacuated Malta in May of 1803. In September a Russian Squadron arrives to insure the "Neutrality" of the Island, and to uphold the authority of the Knights of St John. Malta becomes a protectorate of Imperial Russia, and for the first time in history Russia had a permanent naval base in the Mediterranean. Czar Alexander I had achieved the Dream of the Czars since Peter the Great of a presence in the Mediterranean, and his father's of restoring the Knights of St John to their rightful place. Both Britain, and France regard the Russian Presence in Malta as a threat to their long term interests in the Mediterranean, but nether was willing to go to war, for fear of driving Russia into the opposing camp.
Frustrated in organizing a Third Coalition against France, Russia prepares for war with the Ottoman Turks, and the Persian Empire. They enter into consultations with Prussia to prevent Austrian intervention. Russia declares war on the Sublime Porte in May 1804, and launches offensives in both the Balkans, and the Caucasus. A third army, with naval support marched along the Western Shore of the Caspian Sea toward Baku. These developments alarmed both Great Britain, and Austria. The RN sailed into the Bosporus in support of the Ottomans, and Prime minister Pitt calls for an international conference in St Petersburg between Britain, Russia, Austria, and Prussia to overt a general war.
The proposal was accepted, and all parties agreed that a general war was in no ones interests. They all agreed that a renewed war with France could not be long delayed, and that wasting their strength fighting each other would only be to the advantage of Napoleon. Russian advances in the Balkans would be limited. Russia's protectorate over Malta was recognized by all parties. Russia was permitted to retain control over the Island of Corfu, which had previously been administered jointly with the Turks. The Turks had little choice but to accept these terms. Russia was well satisfied by it's gains in territory, and prestige. Great Britain felt it had made all the concessions it could stand, and began to mobilize her fleet for action in any direction from 1805 on.
By 1806 Napoleon began to plan for renewed war. He revived a plan from the reign of Louie XIV, of conquering the Island of Sicily, and using it has a base of operations in the Central Mediterranean. His new Toulon Fleet would in greatest secrecy embark an army of 35,000 men, and convey them to Palermo, from which they could secure the greater part of the Island. Secrecy would have to be maintained till the operation was well underway, to avoid the intervention of the RN. Under no circumstances could a repeat of the fiasco of Aboukir Bay, and the subsequent failure of the Egyptian Campaign be permitted to happen. The fleet must disembark the army within 72 hours, put back to sea, and return via a circuitous route to the fortified port of Toulon.
By the beginning of 1807 Napoleon was running out of money. With the naval construction program, overseas expeditions in the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean, North America, and the planned operation against Sicily, as well as the cost of the growing Grand Army military expenditures were at an unsustainable level. The Campaign in Haiti had turned into a sinkhole, with loses mounting into the tens of thousands, mostly from disease, with no end in sight. Negotiations for a new alliance with Spain were proving time consuming, and relations with Britain were deteriorating rapidly. His intelligence Services, and diplomates were warning him of a new anti French coalition forming. Some advisors like Talleyrand advised caution, but there was now no turning back.
In March the Emperor issued his orders to set his war plans in motion. The naval program had produced 72 Ships of Line, with 52 considered ready for combat. Of these 24 were based in Toulon, 6 in the Indian Ocean, 6 in the West Indies, and the other 16 in Atlantic Ports. 6 Ships of the line, with 4, 40 gun Frigates would sail from Brest, with 4,000 troops embarked, along with a similar sized force from Toulon. They were to rendezvous at the Island of Guadalupe, and unite with the West Indian Squadron. The combined force would then sail to and occupy Jamaica, holding the Island to assure British Neutrality in the up coming invasion of Sicily.
The Emperor knew full well the British would oppose the invasion, but he would be stealing a march on England, damage their commerce in the West Indies, and divert their forces from more critical areas. The rest of the Atlantic Fleet would sail to Cadiz to help induce Spanish cooperation, or at least keep the English guessing at Franco/Spanish intentions. It might even induce the English to blockade, or attack Cadiz, and make up the Spanish Minds for them. This would all set the stage for the Sicily operation which was to sail on May 1, with 16 Ships of Line, 50 smaller warships, and 300 transports carrying 35,000 men, 11,000 horses, 80 field guns, and15 heavy siege guns, and mortar's. In the meantime the rest of the fleet was to be made ready, for later operations, and the Grand Army was to prepare to march into Germany to forestall the gathering Third Coalition.
So after 5 years of peace cannon would again speak as the final argument of Kings. All of the Kings, Emperors, Prime ministers, and Presidents had been expecting this, and most were surprised it had been this long in coming. So 1807 would be the year of decision, or would it be just the start of a new extended conflict?
In his 1803 message to Congress President Thomas Jefferson reluctantly proposes a defense budget providing for 4 new improved 44 Gun Frigates, and 4, 90 Gun Ships of the Line. The Regular Army is to now have an authorized strength of 500 officers, and 10,000 enlisted men, and new coastal & frontier forts, and magazines are to be constructed . He further requests the various states increase their ready militia strength by 5,000 men, and to raise public contributions for 4 new 36 Gun Proscription Frigates. Jefferson argues the cost of his program will be less then the $10,000,000 the United States was prepared to pay France for the purchase of New Orleans.
The president nominates Alexander Hamilton as Secretary of War, and dispatches the pro British, anti French former Secretary of State Timothy Pickering to London, as Special Envoy to the Court of St James, to settle outstanding issues, and to come to an understanding regarding mutual national security issues. The end of Impressment, and the Orders in Council removed the major issues creating tensions between the two nations, and by the Spring of 1804 a new treaty was ready for ratification, along with some informal assurances by both parties.
Congressmen, and other prominent citizens in the Western States begin to push for a war against France, and Spain. This faction comes to be known as the War Hawks. Among them is Andrew Jackson of Tennessee, who offers his services to lead organized militia units in an effort to secure the lower Mississippi for the United States. He further advocates for seizing West Florida, and the port of Pensacola, and subduing the Indians in the Mississippi, and Alabama Territories.
As agreed the British evacuated Malta in May of 1803. In September a Russian Squadron arrives to insure the "Neutrality" of the Island, and to uphold the authority of the Knights of St John. Malta becomes a protectorate of Imperial Russia, and for the first time in history Russia had a permanent naval base in the Mediterranean. Czar Alexander I had achieved the Dream of the Czars since Peter the Great of a presence in the Mediterranean, and his father's of restoring the Knights of St John to their rightful place. Both Britain, and France regard the Russian Presence in Malta as a threat to their long term interests in the Mediterranean, but nether was willing to go to war, for fear of driving Russia into the opposing camp.
Frustrated in organizing a Third Coalition against France, Russia prepares for war with the Ottoman Turks, and the Persian Empire. They enter into consultations with Prussia to prevent Austrian intervention. Russia declares war on the Sublime Porte in May 1804, and launches offensives in both the Balkans, and the Caucasus. A third army, with naval support marched along the Western Shore of the Caspian Sea toward Baku. These developments alarmed both Great Britain, and Austria. The RN sailed into the Bosporus in support of the Ottomans, and Prime minister Pitt calls for an international conference in St Petersburg between Britain, Russia, Austria, and Prussia to overt a general war.
The proposal was accepted, and all parties agreed that a general war was in no ones interests. They all agreed that a renewed war with France could not be long delayed, and that wasting their strength fighting each other would only be to the advantage of Napoleon. Russian advances in the Balkans would be limited. Russia's protectorate over Malta was recognized by all parties. Russia was permitted to retain control over the Island of Corfu, which had previously been administered jointly with the Turks. The Turks had little choice but to accept these terms. Russia was well satisfied by it's gains in territory, and prestige. Great Britain felt it had made all the concessions it could stand, and began to mobilize her fleet for action in any direction from 1805 on.
By 1806 Napoleon began to plan for renewed war. He revived a plan from the reign of Louie XIV, of conquering the Island of Sicily, and using it has a base of operations in the Central Mediterranean. His new Toulon Fleet would in greatest secrecy embark an army of 35,000 men, and convey them to Palermo, from which they could secure the greater part of the Island. Secrecy would have to be maintained till the operation was well underway, to avoid the intervention of the RN. Under no circumstances could a repeat of the fiasco of Aboukir Bay, and the subsequent failure of the Egyptian Campaign be permitted to happen. The fleet must disembark the army within 72 hours, put back to sea, and return via a circuitous route to the fortified port of Toulon.
By the beginning of 1807 Napoleon was running out of money. With the naval construction program, overseas expeditions in the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean, North America, and the planned operation against Sicily, as well as the cost of the growing Grand Army military expenditures were at an unsustainable level. The Campaign in Haiti had turned into a sinkhole, with loses mounting into the tens of thousands, mostly from disease, with no end in sight. Negotiations for a new alliance with Spain were proving time consuming, and relations with Britain were deteriorating rapidly. His intelligence Services, and diplomates were warning him of a new anti French coalition forming. Some advisors like Talleyrand advised caution, but there was now no turning back.
In March the Emperor issued his orders to set his war plans in motion. The naval program had produced 72 Ships of Line, with 52 considered ready for combat. Of these 24 were based in Toulon, 6 in the Indian Ocean, 6 in the West Indies, and the other 16 in Atlantic Ports. 6 Ships of the line, with 4, 40 gun Frigates would sail from Brest, with 4,000 troops embarked, along with a similar sized force from Toulon. They were to rendezvous at the Island of Guadalupe, and unite with the West Indian Squadron. The combined force would then sail to and occupy Jamaica, holding the Island to assure British Neutrality in the up coming invasion of Sicily.
The Emperor knew full well the British would oppose the invasion, but he would be stealing a march on England, damage their commerce in the West Indies, and divert their forces from more critical areas. The rest of the Atlantic Fleet would sail to Cadiz to help induce Spanish cooperation, or at least keep the English guessing at Franco/Spanish intentions. It might even induce the English to blockade, or attack Cadiz, and make up the Spanish Minds for them. This would all set the stage for the Sicily operation which was to sail on May 1, with 16 Ships of Line, 50 smaller warships, and 300 transports carrying 35,000 men, 11,000 horses, 80 field guns, and15 heavy siege guns, and mortar's. In the meantime the rest of the fleet was to be made ready, for later operations, and the Grand Army was to prepare to march into Germany to forestall the gathering Third Coalition.
So after 5 years of peace cannon would again speak as the final argument of Kings. All of the Kings, Emperors, Prime ministers, and Presidents had been expecting this, and most were surprised it had been this long in coming. So 1807 would be the year of decision, or would it be just the start of a new extended conflict?
I like the part of him running out of money. 🤣
But wouldn’t spreading the forces all over the world be somewhat “un-Napoleonic”? 89,000 (if I counted correctly) are sent to the various parts of the globe with each of them is going to be isolated and none of them being able to join the forces fighting in the continental Europe. Plus the growing navy consumes between 40 and 50,000 (crew of a ship of the line being approximately 800 x 52 plus those of the frigates, etc.). So you are taking more than 120,000 out of the Grand Armee while by 1807 the potential opponents would have armies bigger than those of the 3rd coalition in OTL.
BTW, you missed one war. 😛 Baku (and most of the Caucasus) belonged to Persia so you are talking about the Russo-Persian war (in OTL 1804-13) that had been fought in parallel with the Ottoman war.
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No Expedition to Haïti but Leclerc with his Army to Louisiana that will save a lot of soldiers
This brings an obvious question: would the territory be able to support 20-30,000 soldiers? At the time of the purchase, the territory of Louisiana's non-native population was around 60,000 inhabitants, of whom half were African slaves.
That seems to be a thing that happened a lot, though of course that worm Murat tried to play both sides until the end.
That is the biggest problem with any "lasting peace with Napoleon" scenario. Napoleon was a control freak. He wanted all of Europe (and probably the world) to do what Napeleon wanted them todo and the problem is that the interest of other countries don't always align with the interests of France (let alone the interests of Napoleon himself). So sooner or later countries will start doing things Napoleon don't want them to do. And if Napoleon can't accept that, war is inevitable.
This pretty much sums it up. 🤗
Of course it can be argued that with a greater flexibility and open-mindedness he could achieve a greater European consensus by making alliance with him more profitable than a war and blahblahblah. But he had all subtlety of an elephant in a china shop and seemingly seriously believed that all problems could be resolved by a successful war. This being said, not that his opponents were a bunch of the naive unselfish pacifists willing to sacrifice everything in the name of a lasting peace. So, yes, the war was coming.
IMO, the only way to avoid it would be alt-Napoleon who understands the true limitations of his power and resources and ready to act within these limitations.
I like the idea of something involving the United States being the reason for the peace holding, but it would probably have to be something during the Quasi War, not something after Amiens has been approved. Maybe the Americans make actual gains somewhere, but are not entirely satisfied, and Adams gets a second term, but Jefferson wins in 1804, and, though at peace, his French leanings and the recent engagement of the United States with somewhat strengthened military abilities give London and Paris both pause.
Or, the peace holds because the Pichegru Conspiracy succeeds.
Or, the peace holds because the Pichegru Conspiracy succeeds.
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Thank you for your well thought out critic. So let me address each point, and explain my reasoning. Yes running out of money is always a big problem. My assumption was that trade during an extended time of peace would give Napoleon some more operating capital then the short term, and never fully implemented peace of the OTL. Just the fact that the maritime provinces of France could again engage in coastal trade, and fishing would be a economic boom. French Export industries would revive, and France would have free access to Asian Markets they were deeply interested in developing. Control of Holland also gives them access to trade with the rich Island of Java, and the growing Dutch trade in SEA, China, and even Japan. There were good reasons the British wanted to keep the French out of the area, especially in wartime.
All of his life Napoleon had a romantic attraction to Asia. As a youth he saw himself as Alexander the Great, and dreamed of seeing, and conquering the East as Alexander had done. Has a young man he even talked of soldiering for the Sultan of Turkey, and riding on a Elephant's Back. His invasion of Egypt in 1798 was in his mind a partial fulfillment of his Alexandrian Dream. Strategically he saw India as a point of vulnerability for the British Empire. Napoleon viewed the world in terms of a zero sum game. Any enterprise that could expand French interests in India would be at the expense of Britain, and satisfy his Eastern Dreams.
So I would think during a extended period of peace Napoleon would make a major investment in India. As I said the 20,000 figure weren't all soldiers, they were sailors, merchants, scientists, and adventurers, anyone interested in exploring, or profiting from India, and the larger region. Pondicherry has it was then known was the center of French interests in India, and was a military base of operations, so I thought sending a squadron comparable to the one Admiral Suffern had in the last war would be the least Napoleon would do.
The same goes for New Orleans, the 10,000 men weren't all soldiers. As I said they were also administers, and the associated explores, traders, and others to support new garrison towns along the Mississippi. The 20,000 men going to Haiti were soldiers. Napoleon only gave up on the Haitian War because he thought the war with England was about to resume, and was cutting his loses. Napoleon wasn't one to concede defeat easily, and heavy lose of life was of little concern to him, if it served his purpose. Being beaten by slaves would be a blow to his ego. By 1807 he would have felt too invested in the West Indies to abandon his projects, so sending 2 more squadrons, and 8,000 troops might gain some additional dividends. Napoleon was after all a gambler, and even if unsuccessful in Jamaica he might draw British Attention away from his main objective. Sending the Toulon Fleet to the West Indies in 1804 was for just that purpose.
In 1806 France had a population of over 29 million, so a 2% mobilization gives you 580,000 men. 120,000 for the Navy, and 50,000 for the National Guard, and Gendarmerie, leaves 410,000 for the Army. With 60,000 overseas, and a Corps of 35,000 preparing for Sicily leaves you with a field army of 315,000. With 20% of them in home districts, training, and recruiting, which leaves 252,000 men for the Grand Army. In 1805 Napoleon had about 210,000 men with him when he crossed the Rhine. In this TL the only place the French are losing a lot of men is in Haiti, so France isn't being worn down yet in one grinding campaign after another. Napoleon has had almost 2 more years to form, arm, and train the Grand Army, so in 1807 it would be even more formidable then it was in 1805.
Granted the Allies would also be stronger, and if Prussia joined this alternate Third Coalition from the start the shape of the Campaign would be very different. I was only asked to write about the 5 year peace, not the following war. Maybe you could write that, and I could critic you. As an American I'd love to write about the Franco/American part of the war of 1807. Russia seems to be a deep interest of yours, so what would you think of the state of the Russian Army in 1807? With a larger Russian Naval presence in the Mediterranean based in Malta, and Corfu how would they react to a French Invasion of Sicily?
Oh sorry I forgot about Persia. I understand Baku was a semi autonomous region, and the Russians took it in 1804 with almost no trouble. The rest of the Russo/Persian War was outside the scope of what I was focusing on. The other European Powers didn't really care that much about it. The Ottoman Empire on the other hand definitely effected the European Balance of Power, and continued to do so till WWI.