WI: Philip II, Elisabeth of Valois, and Carlos of Asturias all die in 1568

[Ivan Lupo]

Philip and Carlos did not like one another, but suppose that despite that whole ordeal, Philip's health begins to deteriorate for unknown reasons, then completely fails him when Elisabeth dies during miscarriage. This leaves Isabel Clara Eugenia and Catalina Micaela as his surviving children, Isabel as the child queen regnant of the vast Spanish Empire, and both sisters as heiresses.

I'm sure one of them marries one of their Austrian Habsburg relatives as soon as possible, if not both of them, though Sebastian of Portugal is also young himself and could stand to gain the entire peninsula under the House of Aviz. Meanwhile, the 80 Years War had just gotten underway and the Spanish are still in a desperate war against the Ottomans for Mediterranean supremacy.

 

[RedKing]

Oh boy this is a pickle. Maybe one of their adult Habsburg Cousins come to serve as Regent?

 

[isabella]

Well Archduke Ernest, 15 years old, will be immediately shipped in Spain with a papal dispense for marrying the 2 years old Isabel II and being crowned as her consort.

 

[RedKing]

I wonder if the French would try to exploit the situation?

 

[isabella]

I wonder if the French would try to exploit the situation?

Impossible. They are in the middle of their own civil and with bigger troubles than an underage ruler. Plus as soon Ernest arrived, married Isabella and is crowned Spain will have a 15 years old King and in any case right now France has a 18 years unmarried King and is trying to get one of Ernest’s sisters as Queen so leaving Spain in peace is in their own self-interest

 

[RedKing]

Impossible. They are in the middle of their own civil and with bigger troubles than an underage ruler. Plus as soon Ernest arrived, married Isabella and is crowned Spain will have a 15 years old King and in any case right now France has a 18 years unmarried King and is trying to get one of Ernest’s sisters as Queen so leaving Spain in peace is in their own self-interest

Oh I see.

 

[FouDuRoy]

Well Archduke Ernest, 15 years old, will be immediately shipped in Spain with a papal dispense for marrying the 2 years old Isabel II and being crowned as her consort.

At this time, the minimal age for marriage in Catholic canon law was 14 years for boys and 12 years for girls.
Neither Ernest nor anyone else could marry Isabel before 1578.

I wonder if the French would try to exploit the situation?

They would probably propose either the duke of Anjou either the duke of Alençon as potential future husbands for Isabel (despite them being her uncles) but I guess nobody in Spain would approve the idea.

Of course, the actual question is:
Who would be regent?

 

[isabella]

At this time, the minimal age for marriage in Catholic canon law was 14 years for boys and 12 years for girls.
Neither Ernest nor anyone else could marry Isabel before 1578.

minimal age for consummation NOT marriage. Proxy weddings and similar non consummated ones can very well happen BEFORE that age.

They would probably propose either the duke of Anjou either the duke of Alençon as potential future husbands for Isabel (despite them being her uncles) but I guess nobody in Spain would approve the idea.

France has other troubles, plus want an Austrian Archduchess as bride for Charles IX.

Of course, the actual question is:

Who would be regent?

Austrian Habsburg. Most likely Ernest, in alternative one of Maximilian II’s younger brothers

 

[Ivan Lupo]

In 1568, Sebastian of Portugal has already reached his own majority and is also a potential claimant to the Spanish thrones in his own right. Is it possible that he and Ernest could clash over Isabel's hand in marriage? Or would a compromise be reached? Would the Habsburgs allow Sebastian to marry Isabel in exchange for having Ernest marry Catalina?

 

[isabella]

In 1568, Sebastian of Portugal has already reached his own majority and is also a potential claimant to the Spanish thrones in his own right. Is it possible that he and Ernest could clash over Isabel's hand in marriage? Or would a compromise be reached? Would the Habsburgs allow Sebastian to marry Isabel in exchange for having Ernest marry Catalina?

No way. And Sebastian had a very poor claim on Spain (he is son of the younger daughter and his aunt had a lot of children, plus he was unwilling to marry). Maybe Sebastian would get an engagement to Catalina but NOT to Isabel

 

[Historymaster]

Well, in HL Isabella had no living children and Catalina did, that means that if Sebastian get Catalina and consummate, his child would have the right to both Portuguese and Spanish crown.

 

[isabella]

Well, in HL Isabella had no living children and Catalina did, that means that if Sebastian get Catalina and consummate, his child would have the right to both Portuguese and Spanish crown.

ATL Isabella had living children who died early and married very late, here she will have none of this troubles. Also is unlikely who Sebastian would marry Catalina, and consummate and is pretty unlikely who they would have living children as the Portuguese blood and genes were the ones damaged by imbreeding.

 

[Historymaster]

If Isabella marries an Asburgo there will be similar problems for her.

 

[isabella]

If Isabella marries an Asburgo there will be similar problems for her.

Not guaranteed as father Philip had healthy kids by Ernest's sister. What is guaranteed is Catalina having NONE of her OTL fertility if married to Sebastian

 

[Ivan Lupo]

Isabel also married at 33 in OTL, so time was working against her. In this scenario, she's marrying much younger and consummated as soon as she's reached maturity.

Another thing to consider is whether some or most of Spain's possessions take this delicate opportunity to try and rebel. Whoever has control of the princesses has control of Spain's future, and the most obvious person to take custody of them in 1568 is their aunt Juana, Sebastian's mother and has already served as regent for Philip twice. The power move is to marry Isabel to Sebastian and unite the peninsula, but that would be a betrayal of their close relationship to their Austrian Habsburg relatives.

 

[Historymaster]

Not guaranteed as father Philip had healthy kids by Ernest's sister. What is guaranteed is Catalina having NONE of her OTL fertility if married to Sebastian

We do not know that either, as we do not know if Sebastian ever had sex with a woman.

 

[isabella]

We do not know that either, as we do not know if Sebastian ever had sex with a woman.

Imbreeding levels and the fact who the genes of the Avis were not so good plus close relationship made that pretty sure. And naturally that if Sebastian married Catalina and consummated (and neither is guaranteed)

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

ATL Isabella had living children who died early and married very late, here she will have none of this troubles. Also is unlikely who Sebastian would marry Catalina, and consummate and is pretty unlikely who they would have living children as the Portuguese blood and genes were the ones damaged by imbreeding.

Isabel DID also have a problem in "maturing late". Felipe II wrote on this to his sister Maria that Isabel was not yet menstrusting while Catalina had had them for the last three years already.

 

[isabella]

Isabel DID also have a problem in "maturing late". Felipe II wrote on this to his sister Maria that Isabel was not yet menstrusting while Catalina had had them for the last three years already.

That can change or would simply mean a delayed consummation. She was clearly fertile, as she had married very late and still had three pregnancies who ended with living children, two of them in her 40s.

 

[Historymaster]

Imbreeding levels and the fact who the genes of the Avis were not so good plus close relationship made that pretty sure. And naturally that if Sebastian married Catalina and consummated (and neither is guaranteed)

Sebastian couldsimply have a Gladstone Gander level of luck.