WI: Paul Hymans's Federation of Lithuania

I never expected to find English information about this plan (well known in Lithuania, not so much elsewhere) on the Vilnius dispute. But I did. And on Wikipedia, too, so now I can talk to you about this.

The most defining trait of Interwar Lithuania is, undoubtedly, it's dispute over the Vilnius Region, seized by Poland in 1920 in the Zeligovski Mutiny and held by them for 19 years. During those two decades, all of Lithuania was aimed towards regaining the capital. The Constitution of Lithuania always recognized Vilnius as the true capital if the nation and Kaunas as a mere "temporary" capital, many civilians and soldiers organized into the "Union for the Recovery of Vilnius", an unofficial organization aiming for exactly what the title states, and the border between Poland and Lithuania was basically impassable (you'd have to travel through Latvia or Germany to get from Kaunas to Vilnius and vice versa).

In addition, the Vilnius dispute buried any chances of the formation of an alliance of Central and Eastern European countries to protect them from the Germans or Russians, and the results of that can be seen in September 1939.

But this was not meant to be. In fact, a potential solution to the dispute was proposed as early as 1921, a mere year after the occupation of the city:

Wikipedia said:
The League of Nations considered the Polish proposal of a plebiscite on the future of Central Lithuania. As a compromise, the so-called "Hymans' plan" was proposed (named after Paul Hymans). The plan consisted of 15 points, among them were:[26]

  • Both sides guarantee each other's independence.
  • Central Lithuania is incorporated into the Federation of Lithuania, composed of two cantons: Lithuanian-inhabited Samogitia and multi-ethnic (Belarusian, Tatar, Polish, Jewish and Lithuanian) Vilnius area. Both cantons will have separate governments, parliaments, official languages and a common federative capital in Vilnius.[27]
  • Lithuanian and Polish governments will create interstate commissions on both foreign affairs, trade and industry measures and local policies.
  • Poland and Lithuania will sign a defensive alliance treaty.
  • Poland will gain usage of ports in Lithuania.

Basically, an artificial Federation of Lithuania very closely aligned to Poland, also as a sort of founding block for Miedzymorze.

This plan was declined by both Lithuanian and Polish governments for a number of obvious reasons, but how about we resurrect it? Say, Hymans decides to study just a tiny bit more into the conflict and create something a little bit less tightly knit, making sure Lithuania does not get outright puppetized, but instead just forms a military alliance with Poland. Or how about the Second, amended proposal, which only included granting autonomy to the Vilnius region, and was approved by the Lithuanians (but not the Poles)?

To increase the chances of this plan passing, it wouldn't hurt to make the Polish-Soviet War a bit harder, and drag Lithuania in it, to make both Poland and Lithuania more likely to cooperate. Say, the Lithuanian-Soviet peace breaks apart, maybe Lithuania decides that letting Soviet troops pass through their territory is not comfortable, or they attack the Soviets after the miracle at the Vistula to make sure Poles do not step in Lithuanian Grodno first (for some reason, I don't know, a stupid Soviet brigade commander shells the wrong people, think a little).

What happens next?
 
Really, no thoughts?

I know that I am practically the only person on this site actively focused on Lithuania (as far as I'm aware), but still.
 
I appreciate the likes, but they're really not answering any questions.

To try to add something to the discussion, I'll give you something more to consider:

The time when the Hymans Plan was proposed (1921) was before Lithuania acquired the Klaipėda Region in the 1923 Klaipėda Revolt. If Lithuania is a pro-Polish federation, now with some LoN credentials, how would such a revolt be executed in this scenario, would Klaipėda perhaps become a third "canton"?

Since the Hymans Plan poised building the founding blocks for Miedzymorze, where will the alliance expand and how would it fare?
 
Polish-Bolshevik war would be goog start IMHO.
What about this: Soviets instead of giving Vilnius to Republic of Lithuania proclaimed there Lithuanian (or Lithuanian-Belarussian) Socialist Soviet Republic? Would it make Lithuanians thinking that Poles are "lesser evil'?
 
Polish-Bolshevik war would be goog start IMHO.
What about this: Soviets instead of giving Vilnius to Republic of Lithuania proclaimed there Lithuanian (or Lithuanian-Belarussian) Socialist Soviet Republic? Would it make Lithuanians thinking that Poles are "lesser evil'?
That would be... weird of them, as they had just made a peace treaty with Lithuania where they conceded Vilnius and Grodno to them.
 
It seems that there was significant outside pressure for the Lithuanians to accept a federation with the Poles in order to solve the Vilnius dispute. Too bad that was unacceptable to both Polish and Lithuanian nationalists at the time.

Hymans' proposal is definitely interesting, but I feel that unless the antagonism and nationalism is toned down by the Poles and Lithuanians, any kind of plan is impossible as per OTL. Of course, if it is toned down iTTL, the question then becomes: Why not a full federation at that point? It feels that the whole issue would be avoided with a succesful Miedzymorze and that the required situation for Hymans' plan to succeed is the same than to recreate the Union (e.g. less antagonism, weaker Dmowski, stronger common Soviet threat and, idealy, rekindled sense of unity through common hardship).

If Hymans' plan (either of them) is applied, first, I would assume that Klaipedia would be annexed to "Samogitia" rather than create a second Lithuanian-majority canton. After all, wouldn't be 'unbalance' the federation by giving two Lithuanian cantons versus one Polish multiethnic one? I guess it doesn't really matter because of the multiethnic nature of Vilnius and depends on the federation's structure.

Second, the main worry is whether or not Miedzymorze Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Polish-Lithuanian alliance is enough of a deterence for Germany and the USSR- or if the alliance will make it to '39 in the first place. Is it going to turn out like the Little Entente (Czechoslovak-Roumanian-Yugoslav alliance, for thosr unaware)? If Pilsudski is still influencial, could Miedzymorze become possible, extending the alliance to said Little Entente and change the latter's nature from a purely Anti-Hungarian pact?

Third, could a Polish-Lithuanian united front and a generally-less antagonistic Poland (required for it to work in thr first place) make a difference with Ukraine's fate, perhaps even butterflying the Polish-Ukrainian conflict entirely?
 
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