WI: No Pierre Trudeau

[CanadianTory]

Now I've seen a few threads discuss this idea, and I'm curious about it myself. What would Canadian politics look like without Pierre Trudeau? Doesn't matter if he's killed in 1949 by a sniper or just decides not to run.

How would 1968 Liberal leadership unfold? Would John Turner's support with youth and Quebec push him over the edge? Would Robert Winters come first and not second? Would Paul Hellyer emerge as the compromise? Would Sharp? What about Jean Marchand and Gérard Pelletier? Would they run to give Quebec a voice? Could the winner defeat Stanfieldmania, who polls at the time showed around a 6-9 point lead over the Liberals with the NDP set to make gains?

This is a major tipping point for Canada, and could radically alter more than just politics.

Tagging the parties with probably the most insight And interest
@RogueBeaver @True Grit @lord caedus @conchobhar @Talwar @Commissar From Kiev

 

[The Byronic Hero]

Waiting for the inevitable...

 

[Oppo]

Would John Turner's support with youth and Quebec push him over the edge?

Wasn’t Turner seen as a newcomer and a minor candidate?

Would Paul Hellyer emerge as the compromise?

He’s got a good shot, he ran a very good campaign and was seen as the main anti-Trudeau candidate.

It would be interesting in a general election to have Hellyernomics be the 1968 version of the Green Shift.

Would Sharp?

I think the tax bill crisis would have to be avoided.

What about Jean Marchand and Gérard Pelletier? Would they run to give Quebec a voice?

Marchand I think would definitely rethink his decision without Trudeau. Pelletier had just been elected in 1965 and didn’t have a cabinet post, he isn’t running as well.

MacEachen also be a stronger candidate than IOTL (but probably not winning) without Trudeau taking his vote.

Paul Martin Sr. would also have a better chance without Trudeau being the “fresh face.” If he has a stronger showing, it may butterfly the younger Martin’s political career (who ran to avenge his father’s devistating loss).

Admittedly this is very unlikely, but Jean Chrétien at this point has been in the cabinet for a few years. You’d need Sharp not to run for him to take a shot, though.

As for the 1968 election, it could go either way. Stanfield in 1968 is a really underused POD. An interesting what if connected to this is if Manning and Stanfield were able to merge the SoCreds and the Tories into the planned Social Conservative Party. The negotiations failed in 1967, but it’s possible that some butterflies flap and they succeed (SoCred leader Robert Thompson had defected to the Tories at this time). I remember that on a CBC documentary it was mentioned that Manning even wrote a book about it.

 

[CanadianTory]

Wasn’t Turner seen as a newcomer and a minor candidate?

He’s got a good shot, he ran a very good campaign and was seen as the main anti-Trudeau candidate.

It would be interesting in a general election to have Hellyernomics be the 1968 version of the Green Shift.

I think the tax bill crisis would have to be avoided.

Marchand I think would definitely rethink his decision without Trudeau. Pelletier had just been elected in 1965 and didn’t have a cabinet post, he isn’t running as well.

MacEachen also be a stronger candidate than IOTL (but probably not winning) without Trudeau taking his vote.

Paul Martin Sr. would also have a better chance without Trudeau being the “fresh face.” If he has a stronger showing, it may butterfly the younger Martin’s political career (who ran to avenge his father’s devistating loss).

Admittedly this is very unlikely, but Jean Chrétien at this point has been in the cabinet for a few years. You’d need Sharp not to run for him to take a shot, though.

As for the 1968 election, it could go either way. Stanfield in 1968 is a really underused POD. An interesting what if connected to this is if Manning and Stanfield were able to merge the SoCreds and the Tories into the planned Social Conservative Party. The negotiations failed in 1967, but it’s possible that some butterflies flap and they succeed (SoCred leader Robert Thompson had defected to the Tories at this time). I remember that on a CBC documentary it was mentioned that Manning even wrote a book about it.

Turner was seen as one of the more charismatic candidates. I'm not saying he'd win, but without Trudeau there's a chance he could have captured a lot of support amongst the youth. I agreed regarding Marchand, MacEachen, Martin et al. My money is personally on Hellyer emerging as the compromise candidate.

 

[Beedok]

I do wonder if the NDP would benefit (assuming we go for the later PoD to avoid butterflies). Trudeau generally seems to be viewed as pretty left wing by Liberal Standards, are yet even with that the NDP polled very well by the late 70s. With a more centrist Liberal Party they might become a potent challenger.

 

[CanadianTory]

I do wonder if the NDP would benefit (assuming we go for the later PoD to avoid butterflies). Trudeau generally seems to be viewed as pretty left wing by Liberal Standards, are yet even with that the NDP polled very well by the late 70s. With a more centrist Liberal Party they might become a potent challenger.

I remember reading in some material that some Liberals worried that the party was heading to third place, or at least see the party bleed a lot of its left wing to the NDP. So depending on who you have as leader you could see the PC's pulling votes from the right AND left, and the NDP taking votes from the left.

 

[Oppo]

I do wonder if the NDP would benefit (assuming we go for the later PoD to avoid butterflies). Trudeau generally seems to be viewed as pretty left wing by Liberal Standards, are yet even with that the NDP polled very well by the late 70s. With a more centrist Liberal Party they might become a potent challenger.

Trudeau was thinking about joining the CCF/NDP but was encouraged to join the Grits by Marchand and Pelletier. Perhaps we could get rid of Tommy Douglas and then Trudeau could take over the NDP leadership if he never joins the Liberals.

EDIT: Geez, the similes aren’t working today.

 

[CanadianTory]

Trudeau was thinking about joining the CCF/NDP but was encouraged to join the Grits by Marchand and Pelletier. Perhaps we could get rid of Tommy Douglas frown and then Trudeau could take over the NDP leadership if he never joins the Liberals.

If Trudeau is going NDP, it'll probably be only in a scenario where the NDP has risen above the Liberals.

 

[riggerrob]

Without PET, Canadian federal politics would have stagnated for another decade with boring old men still in control.
No Trudeau means no "Trudeaumania" among Baby Boomers who were just coming to voting age ..... ergo an even greater "Generation Gap." Boring, old censors might even have delayed a "British Invasion."
"Grand Ole Opry" would remain the dominant form of popular music. The Tommy Hunter Show would be the most popular show on CBC.
The "Two Solitudes" would continue with few bilingual civil servants.
Birth control and abortion would still be difficult illegal, difficult to access and dangerous.
Montreal would remain a "sin city" distinct from the rest of the province.
Without Trudeau, someone familiar with the Canadian Army would have managed the "FLQ Crisis" with a gentler hand. Soldiers would only be called out to support police investigations. But when FLQ kidnappers were finally caught, they would be given a quick trial and lengthy prison sentences to be served in federal penitentiaries on the West Coast. Definitely no Cuban vacations.
Without Trudeau, the Canadian Armed Forces would have been funded realistically with far fewer defence contracts going to Quebec firms like Canadair. Centurion tanks would have been updated with Diesel engines, etc. before they rusted out. HMCS Bonaventure would have been "paid off" before her last refit.

 

[CanadianTory]

As a Robert Stanfield man, I actually like boring old men.

 

[EvilSpaceAlien]

It's certainly an intriguing idea. I wonder if in a scenario where the Liberals pick a more centrist-leaning leader, or at least one who's not as appealing to leftwingers as Trudeau, you could see the development of some kind of three-party system where the NDP, LPC and PCs are all seen as having a realistic shot at forming government at any given point. Maybe minority governments become more of a common thing as time goes by, or perhaps even coalition governments at some point down the road.

 

[CanadianTory]

Oh god, perpetual Liberal/NDP or NDP/Liberal governments!

 

[EvilSpaceAlien]

Or maybe even some Liberal/PC or PC/Liberal governments given enough time!

 

[Kermode]

It's important to remember that Trudeau had the informal backing of Pearson, because Pearson felt— with Quebec issues coming to a head— it was important for national unity to have a francophone Quebecer at least do well in the leadership convention. But Trudeau wasn't his first choice; Marchand was. Odd as it is to think now, but in '68 Trudeau was only seen as a rising star, while Marchand was the undisputed heavyweight of the three doves, and Pearson's senior Quebec minister. Marchand agreed with Pearson's inclination, but declined to run himself and instead suggested that Trudeau run, and… well, the rest is history (literally).

All that is to say, a POD is very easy: Marchand accepts Pearson's invitation, and Trudeau dutifully falls in line behind his friend. However, Marchand won't win; he didn't have Trudeau's personal touch, and his English wasn't near as good, so he won't be able to rack up delegates. For instance, Trudeau won the backing of the Newfoundland delegates because he won premier Joey Smallwood's personal approval— but before that happened (and it was considered a coup), observers expected Smallwood to back his fellow Atlantic Canadian, Robert Winters. Also, IOTL, Marchand himself predicted that had Trudeau not run, Paul Martin would have scooped up half of Quebec's delegates; the number is probably not quite as high if Marchand is there instead, but it does showcase that Paul Martin is another figure not to be ignored (though he probably wouldn't win, either). Finally, John Turner definitely won't win— everyone thought it was too early for him— but without the charismatic, photogenic Trudeau in the picture, I can imagine him attracting the support Trudeau had among the youth and university wings.

My gut says that Robert Winters wins the leadership, but he probably loses in the general: he's not as well poised to maintain or grow the Liberal coalition as Trudeau had. So Stanfield wins in '68, but his personal circumstances mean he has a much harder time dealing with a belligerent Quebec under Daniel Johnson.

 

[CanadianTory]

It's important to remember that Trudeau had the informal backing of Pearson, because Pearson felt— with Quebec issues coming to a head— it was important for national unity to have a francophone Quebecer at least do well in the leadership convention. But Trudeau wasn't his first choice; Marchand was. Odd as it is to think now, but in '68 Trudeau was only seen as a rising star, while Marchand was the undisputed heavyweight of the three doves, and Pearson's senior Quebec minister. Marchand agreed with Pearson's inclination, but declined to run himself and instead suggested that Trudeau run, and… well, the rest is history (literally).

All that is to say, a POD is very easy: Marchand accepts Pearson's invitation, and Trudeau dutifully falls in line behind his friend. However, Marchand won't win; he didn't have Trudeau's personal touch, and his English wasn't near as good, so he won't be able to rack up delegates. For instance, Trudeau won the backing of the Newfoundland delegates because he won premier Joey Smallwood's personal approval— but before that happened (and it was considered a coup), observers expected Smallwood to back his fellow Atlantic Canadian, Robert Winters. Also, IOTL, Marchand himself predicted that had Trudeau not run, Paul Martin would have scooped up half of Quebec's delegates; the number is probably not quite as high if Marchand is there instead, but it does showcase that Paul Martin is another figure not to be ignored (though he probably wouldn't win, either). Finally, John Turner definitely won't win— everyone thought it was too early for him— but without the charismatic, photogenic Trudeau in the picture, I can imagine him attracting the support Trudeau had among the youth and university wings.

My gut says that Robert Winters wins the leadership, but he probably loses in the general: he's not as well poised to maintain or grow the Liberal coalition as Trudeau had. So Stanfield wins in '68, but his personal circumstances mean he has a much harder time dealing with a belligerent Quebec under Daniel Johnson.

So something along the lines of

John Diefenbaker (Progressive Conservative) 1957-1963
1957 (minority): Louis St. Laurent (Liberal), Major James Coldwell (Co-operative Commonwealth), Solon Earl Low (Social Credit)
1958: Lester B. Pearson (Liberal), Major James Coldwell (Co-operative Commonwealth), Solon Earl Low (Social Credit)
1962 (minority): Lester B. Pearson (Liberal), Robert N. Thompson (Social Credit), Tommy Douglas (New Democratic)
Lester B. Pearson (Liberal) 1963-1968
1963 (minority): John Diefenbaker (Prog. Conservative), Robert N. Thompson (Social Credit), Tommy Douglas (New Democratic)
1965 (minority): John Diefenbaker (Prog. Conservative), Tommy Douglas (New Democratic), Réal Caouette (Ralliement créditiste), Robert N. Thompson (Social Credit)
Robert Winters (Liberal) 1968
Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative) 1968-
1968: Robert Winters (Liberal), Tommy Douglas (New Democratic), Réal Caouette (Ralliement créditiste)

 

[EvilSpaceAlien]

If one were to write a TL of this, things could be made extra exciting by having Winters pass away on the campaign trail which wouldn't be too much of leap considering that he died from a heart attack in 1969 IOTL.

 

[Kermode]

If one were to write a TL of this, things could be made extra exciting by having Winters pass away on the campaign trail which wouldn't be too much of leap considering that he died from a heart attack in 1969 ITTL.

For maximum excitement (in… the Chinese sense?), have Winters suffer his heart attack at the St. Jean Baptise Day parade in Montreal:

Protesting the prime minister's attendance at the parade, supporters of Quebec independence yelled Trudeau au poteau [Trudeau to the gallows], and threw bottles and rocks. Trudeau, whose lack of military service during World War II had led some to question his courage, firmly stood his ground, and did not flee from the violence despite the wishes of his security escort. Images of Trudeau standing fast to the thrown bottles of the rioters were broadcast across the country, and swung the election even further in the Liberals' favour as many English-speaking Canadians believed that he would be the right leader to fight the threat of Quebec separatism.

 

[Yes]

Great thread, I haven't seen the '68 leadership election dissected in such detail before and it is a big POD. *Shudders at the prospect of Hellyer*....

 

[CanadianTory]

People forget that the Tories recruited a lot of high profile candidates across the country, especially in Quebec. Yves Ryan for example.

You could see an entirely different Tory party. Heck, whether or not Winters dies on the campaign trail, you could see the NDP take second

 

[CanadianTory]

For maximum excitement (in… the Chinese sense?), have Winters suffer his heart attack at the St. Jean Baptise Day parade in Montreal:

So what's the Liberal Party policy for such a situation? Caucus picks an interim leader? Maybe Mitchell Sharp?