WI: NACA Modified P-38

[EverKing]

Am I disagreeing with you?

It sounds to me that we are of the same mind in the Spruance v. Halsey debate--I don't sense any disagreement there. I find your Prost/Senna analogy an interesting one and quite on-the-money besides, although is some ways I wonder if Lauda/Hunt would be even more appropriate--regardless, the comparison is between Calculation and Emotion, or as Mike Moorcock would say, Reason and Romance. Perhaps we could veer into Sci-Fi here and say it is like Picard and Kirk. ;-)

I have always wondered how '44 would have gone if Halsey and Spruance were swapped through the entire year: Halsey in June with the Battle of the Philippine Sea and Spruance in October with Leyte. I think Halsey would have more aggressively pursued the IJN carriers in June, surface threats be-damned, which would have left Spruance in a perfect place to take out Center Force and a weaker than OTL Northern Force at Leyte by simply parking off the NE of Samar and letting them come at him one-at-a-time. Keep the Carriers farther east, in a position where they can provide CAP for TF 34 blocking the exit route from San Bernardino but from where they can still effectively reach north when needed to take on the IJN Northern Force. It is defensive, certainly, but it allows concentration of power where and when it is needed and frees the entire fleet for maneuvers as required. Also consider the possibility that Spruance may have released McCain earlier or later than Halsey did and it is very possible that TG 58.1 (OTL 38.1) would be available during the battle.

 

[vl100butch]

One of the best summaries of Halsey's actions was actually in a work of fiction...Herman Wouk's comment through his character Pug Henry in War and Remembrance

as I recall it..."I was never so mad at anyone as I was at Halsey"

Keep in mind, at this point Pug commanded a battleship division with Iowa and New Jersey...

 

[EverKing]

One of the best summaries of Halsey's actions was actually in a work of fiction...Herman Wouk's comment through his character Pug Henry in War and Remembrance

as I recall it..."I was never so mad at anyone as I was at Halsey"

Keep in mind, at this point Pug commanded a battleship division with Iowa and New Jersey...

Sounds to me like Pug is a stand-in for Badger, who was none-too-happy to be saddled with Halsey in New Jersey from what I've gathered and even less so that they weren't given the opportunity to fight. That quote right there with Tom Clancy's "The Hunt for Red October" where (at least in the film, it has been too long since I read the novel to remember if it is also in there) Ramius remarks, "Halsey acted stupidly."

In the Action Report for TF 34 Lee tersely remarks,

No battle damage was incurred, nor inflicted on the enemy by vessels while operating as Task Force THIRTY-FOUR.

Just to keep on sort-of on-topic, I am working out a rough outline of the action between TF 34 and the retreating Center Force. I need to figure this out so I know how to plan an appropriate follow-up for the P-38s. One interesting prospect is using a combination of skip and dive bombing (IOTL they did both with P-38s against ships) with the skip bombers carrying lighter 500# GPs (and possibly 5" HVARs as well) and the Dive bombers possibly carrying some of the few 1000# or even fewer 1600# AP bombs available to the 5th AF (carried by bombers to attack harbors, etc.). I'm trying to get some idea of the availability of these AP bombs to the AAF at Morotai around that time and see if it is feasible to get a dozen or so for the P-38Js to carry. If not, then we'll just make do with what we can get.

 

[phx1138]

Thread highjack alert.

It sounds to me that we are of the same mind in the Spruance v. Halsey debate--I don't sense any disagreement there. I find your Prost/Senna analogy an interesting one and quite on-the-money besides, although is some ways I wonder if Lauda/Hunt would be even more appropriate--regardless, the comparison is between Calculation and Emotion, or as Mike Moorcock would say, Reason and Romance. Perhaps we could veer into Sci-Fi here and say it is like Picard and Kirk. ;-)

Thx for agreeing.

I was just a fraction young for Hunt & Lauda (tho I was aware of F1, I wasn't really a fan until after Gilles was killed), so I can't comment there. As for Kirk & Picard, they're so much a product of broader social issues, as stand-ins for U.S. policy & attitude, & so driven by the producers' goals, it's hard to judge fairly. Can we safely say Kirk was passion personified, & Picard passion tempered? I'd say that's a fair assessment. I'm not (quite) so sure I'd parallel him tightly with Prost, tho; I got the sense he was governed by tradition as much as reason, in a lot of his actions. (The conflict between his very British/RN approach & his notional French background was no help.)

I have always wondered how '44 would have gone if Halsey and Spruance were swapped through the entire year: Halsey in June with the Battle of the Philippine Sea and Spruance in October with Leyte. I think Halsey would have more aggressively pursued the IJN carriers in June, surface threats be-damned, which would have left Spruance in a perfect place to take out Center Force and a weaker than OTL Northern Force at Leyte by simply parking off the NE of Samar and letting them come at him one-at-a-time. Keep the Carriers farther east, in a position where they can provide CAP for TF 34 blocking the exit route from San Bernardino but from where they can still effectively reach north when needed to take on the IJN Northern Force. It is defensive, certainly, but it allows concentration of power where and when it is needed and frees the entire fleet for maneuvers as required. Also consider the possibility that Spruance may have released McCain earlier or later than Halsey did and it is very possible that TG 58.1 (OTL 38.1) would be available during the battle.

I'll agree with most of that, with a proviso I'm too rusty on the details to be certain. (I've really, really gotten too far away from reading in this area these days. ) My big concern with such a swap is giving Halsey orders to defend the beaches (Saipan?), when presented with an opportunity to pursue. Spruance stayed, & was criticized for it--but AIUI, had he gone, he risked blowing up the operation, having his ass handed to him, or both. I have a strong feeling Halsey'd have pursued, & we'd be roasting him for that, instead--& at a place that could've been a lot more consequential in strategic terms

We should note one thing: had MacArthur been pushed under a bus, where he belonged, it would all be moot. There'd have been no invasion, & Fifth Fleet would've been guarding landings at Okinawa, or Iwo Jima (depending on how well things went).

On Ramius, I don't recall it from the book, either, but Ryan did write a defense of Halsey...& IDK how Clancy (who appears to use Ryan as his avatar) got to that. (OTOH, he could've been using the remark to show just who Ramius was: a Sov Spruance. That fits with the rest of his actions: cool & calculating to the very, very edge.)

 

[Draconis]

@EverKing "The world wonders."

 

[EverKing]

@EverKing "The world wonders."

Haha, yeah, it's in progress. I have been busy trying to get caught up after after being down and out earlier this month. On top of work, I have been pushing hard to get all my Emergency Services qualifications for Civil Air Patrol in preparation for what promises to be a busy spring for flooding in my neck-of-the-woods (the Minnesota River / Red River of the North corridor). Also, I have been distracted by another thread here and recently came in possession of new (old) rifle which will be a bit of a project to refurbish and refinish.

But enough excuses...

Back on track, though: TF34 will be arriving at such a time and position to effectively cut Center Force from their route of escape so I am struggling a bit with the possibility that few, if any, will be able to make it back through San Bernardino. I keep going around in circles on it. To have the entire force destroyed in detail seems a bit far fetched but, conversely, the only feasible way I see any escaping would be if the Americans withdraw due to fuel and/or ordnance shortages or damage.

This decision will influence what the P-38s do next so I really need to lock it down before I can finish the battle.

Are there opinions or insights you, my lovely readers, care to share that may help me?

 

[Driftless]

On top of work, I have been pushing hard to get all my Emergency Services qualifications for Civil Air Patrol in preparation for what promises to be a busy spring for flooding in my neck-of-the-woods (the Minnesota River / Red River of the North corridor).

Good luck! (For those folks outside the upper Midwest) We have a lot of snow on the ground all over and an extended stretch of warm weather for the region coming up. That meltwater has to go somewhere....

 

[Mandolin]

Haha, yeah, it's in progress. I have been busy trying to get caught up after after being down and out earlier this month. On top of work, I have been pushing hard to get all my Emergency Services qualifications for Civil Air Patrol in preparation for what promises to be a busy spring for flooding in my neck-of-the-woods (the Minnesota River / Red River of the North corridor). Also, I have been distracted by another thread here and recently came in possession of new (old) rifle which will be a bit of a project to refurbish and refinish.

But enough excuses...

Oh, you're in Civil Air Patrol? I was a Cadet for about a decade before a combination of not really having much else I wanted to do and work caused me to leave.

Done any NCSAs?

 

[tomo pauk]

...
Are there opinions or insights you, my lovely readers, care to share that may help me?

My only opinion is that I'm eagerly waiting for the update

 

[EverKing]

Oh, you're in Civil Air Patrol? I was a Cadet for about a decade before a combination of not really having much else I wanted to do and work caused me to leave.

Done any NCSAs?

You should see if there is a local squadron and join as a Senior Member. Former Cadets are great resources for Composite Squadrons as they can help guide the current Cadets. Our squadron is less than 3 years old, I have only been a member for a shade over 6 months. I was able to get to one SARX last fall before winter put the breaks on us but haven't taken part in any Cadet Activities yet. I am acting Dept. Commander for Cadets in our squadron until another new member can get her TLC completed and I hope to ride this position to get to Encampment this year or next. Once I am little better established and get by ops quals done I hope to go to NESA and maybe somewhere down the road help out at Hawk Mountain. For now, though, I am really trying to focus on my SQTRs.

 

[Mandolin]

You should see if there is a local squadron and join as a Senior Member. Former Cadets are great resources for Composite Squadrons as they can help guide the current Cadets. Our squadron is less than 3 years old, I have only been a member for a shade over 6 months. I was able to get to one SARX last fall before winter put the breaks on us but haven't taken part in any Cadet Activities yet. I am acting Dept. Commander for Cadets in our squadron until another new member can get her TLC completed and I hope to ride this position to get to Encampment this year or next. Once I am little better established and get by ops quals done I hope to go to NESA and maybe somewhere down the road help out at Hawk Mountain. For now, though, I am really trying to focus on my SQTRs.

Ah. Try for Blue Beret, its amazing.

I was never really into the whole Emergency Services thing (I was and still am an airplane nut), though I did do one mission. Tracked an ELT to...a FedEx facility. Found the right truck and it was called off at that point.

 

[Draconis]

If it seems logical and realistic that Centre Force is destroyed in detail then why not go with it. Your readers will pick it over. That's part of what makes A-H so interesting. Perhaps the price to be paid for avoiding the Battle off Samar and the sinking of the IJNs' Centre Force is the escape of Japans' toothless carrier fleet as Admiral Halsey turns South sooner in TTL. That's not such a bad deal.

Best of luck with your efforts with the Civil Air Patrol. If I was a much younger man and an American I'd be inclined to get involved too.

 

[Draconis]

I was never really into the whole Emergency Services thing (I was and still am an airplane nut), though I did do one mission. Tracked an ELT to...a FedEx facility. Found the right truck and it was called off at that point.

Somebody must have dropped the box it was in. I'm surprised that the ELT was being shipped with the battery connected. Up here in the land of Beavers and Loonies if the RCAF has to respond to a false alarm there is a possibility the perpetrator could be fined the fuel bill for the C-130 SAR flights.

 

[EverKing]

Up here in the land of Beavers and Loonies if the RCAF has to respond to a false alarm there is a possibility the perpetrator could be fined the fuel bill for the C-130 SAR flights.

That's the great thing with CAP, we can do it for about a 1/10 the cost of the USAF or less. Saves taxpayer dollars and doesn't waste the time of our military folk who (theoretically) should have more important thing to do.

 

[EverKing]

Perhaps the price to be paid for avoiding the Battle off Samar

To be clear, the Battle off Samar with still happen with only minor changes due to the Taffys being forewarned. TF 34 is arriving on scene around 1200+/- which mean they will catch Center Force on their withdrawal.

 

[skettenhund]

To be clear, the Battle off Samar with still happen with only minor changes due to the Taffys being forewarned. TF 34 is arriving on scene around 1200+/- which mean they will catch Center Force on their withdrawal.

At that point Center Force is down to about half the number of hulls with which they started the operation. IIRC correctly they only had 2 CA left. Based on the experience of Truk, Iowa-class BB don't do well chasing CL. There could still be a number of lighter units (CL, DD) for airpower to hunt down.

 

[fester]

To be clear, the Battle off Samar with still happen with only minor changes due to the Taffys being forewarned. TF 34 is arriving on scene around 1200+/- which mean they will catch Center Force on their withdrawal.

I would have anticipated that if Taffy 2 and 3 knew that the enemy fleet was coming they would have had ASuW strikes up at dawn and heading to open seas as early as possible as well as having most of the dozens of destroyers covering the landing area coming out to assist.

 

[EverKing]

At that point Center Force is down to about half the number of hulls with which they started the operation. IIRC correctly they only had 2 CA left. Based on the experience of Truk, Iowa-class BB don't do well chasing CL. There could still be a number of lighter units (CL, DD) for airpower to hunt down.

I would have anticipated that if Taffy 2 and 3 knew that the enemy fleet was coming they would have had ASuW strikes up at dawn and heading to open seas as early as possible as well as having most of the dozens of destroyers covering the landing area coming out to assist.

That is very near the case ITTL. The difference being that the Taffys, being the only viable protection to the north of the landing area at this time, are unable to fully withdraw. Instead, they are on stand-by with regular patrols directly north, being relieved of ground-support duties for the morning. Once Center Force is spotted and identified they will perform what delaying actions they can using harassment from the DDs and DEs as well general air strikes from the CVEs as possible. The biggest change in the results of the battle are that the aircraft will be fully loaded and fueled for strikes against ships with GP and SAP bombs as well as being pre-loaded with the limited number of torpedoes they have available before the battle begins.

This leaves us with a situation that will still convince Kurita that he faces a larger force than he actually does as he will immediately come under coordinated attack from screening Destroyers and the combined strike squadrons of at least Taffys 2 and 3 (being the closest) with Taffy 1 following. This won't change Kurita's time table much from OTL (still turning back north around 0930) but it will change the losses/damages suffered to each force. The Destroyers of Taffy 3, specifically Johnston, Hoel, and Heerman, will still make heroic charges toward the enemy in an effort to keep them out of gun range for the CVEs but it will be a close thing.

But all of this in incidental to the main story. What really matters is what is left of Southern and Center Forces by the end of Oct. 25 and through Oct. 26. Between the presence of TF34 blocking Kurita's retreat, followed shortly by the arrival of McCain's CTG 38.1, I don't think there will be much reason to send the Army after the scraps of Center Force that remain. They may be able to inflict more damage on Shima's Second Striking Force from the Southern Force though.

 

[TonyA]

...the aircraft will be fully loaded and fueled for strikes against ships with GP and SAP bombs as well as being pre-loaded with the limited number of torpedoes they have available before the battle begins.

Anyone have info on what kind of torp numbers we'd be looking at in this situation?

 

[EverKing]

Anyone have info on what kind of torp numbers we'd be looking at in this situation?

I haven't been able to find specific numbers of torps available to the CVEs at the time but this little comment in the Battle Experience Report from the Taffys (Carrier Task Group 77.4) seems to imply a mere nine (!) aerial torpedoes per CVE.

CTG 77.4 comments and recommends:
Present allowance of nine torpedoes seems correct but 1000# SAP bombs should be returned to the allowance lists of the CVE's.

Looking at the Order of Battle for CTG 77.4, Sprague had the following CVEs available to him:

• Task Unit 77.4.1 (Taffy-1)
  
  • CarDiv 22
    • CVE-26 Sangamon (17 F6F, 9 TBM)
    • CVE-27 Suannee (22 F6F, 9 TBM)
    • CVE-29 Santee (24 FM-2, 9 TBM)
  • CarDiv 28
    • CVE-80 Petrof Bay (16 FM-2, 10 TBM)
• Task Unit 77.4.2 (Taffy-2)
  • CarDiv 24
    • CVE-62 Natoma Bay (16 FM-2, 12 TBM)
    • CVE-61 Manila Bay (16 FM-2, 12 TBM)
  • CarDiv 27
    • CVE-77 Marcus Island (15 FM-2, 11 TBM)
    • CVE-76 Kadashan Bay (15 FM-2, 11 TBM)
    • CVE-78 Savo Island (16 FM-2, 12 TBM)
    • CVE-79 Ommaney Bay (16 FM-2, 11 TBM)
• Task Unit 77.4.3 (Taffy-3)
  • CarDiv 25
    • CVE-70 Fanshaw Bay (16 FM-2, 12 TBM)
    • CVE-63 St. Lo (17 FM-2, 12 TBM)
    • CVE-66 White Plains (16 FM-2, 12 TBM)
    • CVE-68 Kalinin Bay (16 FM-2, 12 TBM)
  • CarDiv 26
    • CVE-71 Kitkun Bay (14 FM-2, 12 TBM)
    • CVE-73 Gambier Bay (18 FM-2, 12 TBM)

So, assuming all three Taffys (Task Units 77.4.1, 77.4.2, 77.4.3) are able to take part at various stages there could be as many as 178 TBMs available with 144 Torpedoes between them. Of course, I wouldn't expect a 100% serviceability rate but it should be pretty close considering most of the "dud" airplanes were loaded onto Saginaw Bay and Chenago at 1645 on 10/24 and sent to Morotai, with the remaining good aircraft from these two sent to back fill where needed throughout the rest of the CTG. Mind you, not all of these would be attacking at once, but in irregular waves from about 0700 until 1100 +/-. It should still be enough of a threat to make Kurita think twice about pressing forward.