A similar thread was posted in this forum a few years ago and prompted some interesting discussion: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-mccain-sits-out-2000.297524/. I'd like to revive this WI, focusing in particular on how McCain's absence would affect Bill Bradley's performance.

Although I can't find any hard numbers, I'm of the understanding that there was significant crossover between McCain and Bradley's support base due to their anti-establishment campaign themes. If McCain were for some reason to sit 2000 out, how would things change? I imagine Bush would probably still dominate his primary, and I'm sure Gore would still win his, but by a slightly smaller margin.

If Bradley received more positive media coverage, would he be able to mount a heftier challenge to Gore beyond just winning New Hampshire? Would this have any effect on how Gore campaigns? Would he still choose Joe Lieberman as his running mate? Would Bush win by a bigger margin in the fall?
 
With an easier primary, Bush probably wins the popular vote.
Agreed.

With less name recognition from not running in 2000, John McCain won't be seen as, 'next in line' during the 2008 Republican Primaries. Therefore, because New Hampshire voters aren't familiar with him, he probably loses the New Hampshire Primary against Romney (who has a proximity advantage), and does not win the nomination altogether.
 
I find it astonishing that the 2000 Republican Primary in OTL . . .

only had two serious candidates, Bush and McCain ? ! ?
A lot of major candidates did not run in deference to Bush. Had Bush not run, there would have been a very open field of candidates that would overshadow John McCain entirely.
 
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