WI: Japan Divided into Occupation Zones

Malos

611px-The_first_proposals_for_the_division_of_Japan_-_WW2.png


During the Second World War, there had been plans between the allied powers to divide Japan into occupation zones administered by the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, the Republic of China, and the United States. After the war concluded, however, the original plan was modified so that there was direct US occupation of the mainland islands while the outlying imperial territories of Japan were split between the victors.

My question relates to how this original plan could come into fruition after WWII, how the occupation would actually affect the peoples within, and the geopolitical aftereffects of such a division.
 

Lost the game

Banned
If other threads on this topic are anything to go by, World War III would start because of arguments over whether to call it "East Japan and West Japan" or "North Japan and South Japan."
 

Malos

What I'm mostly curious about is how Chinese Shikoku would fare. If Taiwan got in a lot more trouble during the Chinese Civil War, would Shikoku end up being a remnant government?
 
IntellectuallyHonestRhino

IntellectuallyHonestRhino

I think US, UK and ROC controlled Japan would eventually unite into the pro-Nato Republic Japan and Soviet controlled Japan would be part of the People's Republic of Japan. Korea in this case (I'm assuming Operation Downfall, otherwise this doesn't happen), Korea would be united under Kim il-Sung and as a Soviet puppet.
 
marathag

marathag

Banned
If it was to be Occupation Zones, the Manchuria and Korea would also count for areas to be occupied by the Allied Powers, and not just USSR
 

Lalli

There would be monarchist Japan in south and communist Japan in north.

Another thing is would there be unification after Cold War if it ends.
 

Malos

So there's general agreement that there would be a communist North Japan after occupation. Who would be a likely candidate for leading the country? Any notable Japanese communists that the Soviets would call upon?
 

David T

Basically, the only division of Japan I could see would be the Soviets getting to keep whatever they successfully invaded. I doubt very much that this would include anything more than Hokkaido, unless the war went on much longer than I think it would have, even without the atomic bomb.

In particular, I really don't see a Chinese occupation zone given that Chiang would have his hands full fighting the Chinese Communists.
 
marathag

marathag

Banned
David T said:
In particular, I really don't see a Chinese occupation zone given that Chiang would have his hands full fighting the Chinese Communists.
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And miss a chance to hold part of Japan? no way the KMT would miss out on that chance.

Plus, as I posted above, former Japanese held Manchukuo would be returned to China, and other areas not part of China or the USSR as of 1931 would be put to zones, including China, since they were an Allied Power

This changes they postwar dynamics greatly
 

David T

marathag said:
And miss a chance to hold part of Japan? no way the KMT would miss out on that chance.
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Actually, Chiang didn't seem too enthusiastic about the idea at Cairo:

"On Military Occupation of Japan—President Roosevelt was of the opinion that China should play the leading role in the post-war military occupation of Japan.2 Generalissimo Chiang believed, however, that China was not equipped to shoulder this considerable responsibility, that the task should be carried out under the leadership of the United States and that China could participate in the task in [Page 324]a supporting capacity should it prove necessary by that time. The Generalissimo also took the position that the final decision on the matter could await further development of the actual situation."

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1943CairoTehran/d259

Now, granted, this doesn't totally rule out a Chinese role but it is to be at most a "supporting" one and even that only "if necessary." As I said, not exactly enthusiastic...

(FDR's statement may seem startling but--as Chiang seems to have been aware-- "Roosevelt was testing out China's assumptions about its status in the postwar period." https://books.google.com/books?id=L_d9QajZdFwC&pg=PA258)
 

Tizoc

elkarlo said:
Haha no way. For that to have any impact it'd take the Soviets actually caring if people starved to death.
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It would make Soviets look bad. Besides, if the Soviet sector reached Tokyo Bay, supply would be mostly by ship. Much easier than by plane.
 

Cryptic

As a historical trivia side note, Truman made a radio broadcast directed to the Japanese after the atomic bombs. The broadcast was to encourage surrender rather than a fight to the death. In it, Truman outlined an unconditional surrender mixed with a series of guarantees. The guarantees included:

- A future Democratic non communist government, no occupation zones, territorial integrity, and an implied guarantee that occupied Japan would retain more internal sovereignty functions than the Germans.

The Japanese also wanted the IJA to return home undefeated and under arms ala Germany in WWI. Though that dd not happen, IJA forces in many parts of Asia were permitted to slowly disband themselves sans POW camps etc. In the end, every guarantee was kept except for when the Soviets grabbed some outlying possessions and refused to return them.
 

Malos

Truman could be seen as a major factor for why the original occupation plan changed. Truman's opinions on Stalin and the Soviet Union in general were much colder than Roosevelt's had been, so Truman being president at the time of Japan's surrender makes the original plan much less likely. Perhaps with Roosevelt surviving until the end of the war, things would have turned out differently? What do you think?
 

Lalli

Malos said:
Truman could be seen as a major factor for why the original occupation plan changed. Truman's opinions on Stalin and the Soviet Union in general were much colder than Roosevelt's had been, so Truman being president at the time of Japan's surrender makes the original plan much less likely. Perhaps with Roosevelt surviving until the end of the war, things would have turned out differently? What do you think?
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FDR surviving any longer than in OTL is quiet implausible without pretty early POD, which would change FDR's career. Better way would be that FDR either dies before he picks Truman as his running mate and Wallace wins the election.
 

sloreck

The only way the Soviets get a major presence in Japan is if the war goes on much longer, and they actually invade Hokkaido. Other than getting the southern half of Sakhalin back, everything else the Soviets grabbed was boots on the ground and not supposed to be permanent - either the division of Korea, which was simply a line to avoid accidental clashes, or the annexation of the Kuriles the USSR occupied. Manchukuo/Manchuria was supposed to go back to China (Chiang). I believe there was, for a short time, a very small Soviet military mission in Tokyo which was the extent of "occupation" of Japan. The UK and Imperial allies as well as the Chinese wanted no part of the hassles and costs of occupying Japan.

If the USSR does occupy part of Japan, you might have seen a situation like Austria with a multipartite occupation and then withdrawal with a neutral Japan left behind.
 

riggerrob

........ I believe there was, for a short time, a very small Soviet military mission in Tokyo which was the extent of "occupation" of Japan. The UK and Imperial allies as well as the Chinese wanted no part of the hassles and costs of occupying Japan.
.............. [/QUOTE]

—————————————————————————————
By 1945, the USA was the only ALLIED nation that could afford to occupy Japan.
The Breton Woods Agreements ensured that Britain, France, Holland, etc. could no longer afford to administer far-flung colonies.
 

Phalamus

Malos said:
So there's general agreement that there would be a communist North Japan after occupation. Who would be a likely candidate for leading the country? Any notable Japanese communists that the Soviets would call upon?
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I'm guessing Nosaka Sanzo, since he seemed to be the most prominent Japanese communist during wartime, and IOTL he led the JCP through the US occupation period.
 
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