WI Frederick Barbarossa doesn’t drown (2023 ed)

[Geekhis Khan]

All fascinating stuff, glad this got resurrected! Been thinking about Freddy Barbs of late, so perfect timing.

I'm about as far from an HRE expert as you can get (I take one look at those maps from the 30 Years War and my brain breaks a little), so forgive the basic questions, but assuming all or some of this comes to pass in some form or another and Fred I and II are able to cement a Hohenstaufen Dynasty atop the HRE going forward, could this ultimately translate into an HRE that isn't triplex-Ironic (actually Holy, Roman, and an Empire)? I.e. does the Hs Dynasty potentially set the Empire on the path ala France towards increasing rather than decreasing centralization? I know Freddy Barbs is the go-to Magnificent Bastard for HRE-wanks, but I've always wondered what the plausible Best Case is, given the numerous internal challenges.

Presumably a non-ironic HRE is the Big Kid on the block in the Middle Ages, but how does it fare in the Early Modern, or is there even a Modern era? How long could it plausibly survive? Into the 18th or 19th C even? Or is the Bubonic Plague like "hold my beer?"

How big could it get? How big could it stay? Is a German-Italian split inevitable, or could good leadership or shared values/economies or something manage to surmount the literal and figurative mountains between them?

Is it greater than the sum of its OTL parts, less than, or about equal?

How does this affect the development of Europe? A "Middle Kingdom" that all the rest pay tribute to, or a ring of rivals opposed to it? Does any nation (e.g. France and/or Spain) form a plausible counterweight?

Will Frederick XVII and the lovely Sophia of Aquitaine retain their forbidden romance, or will the dastardly Ernesto find out and tell the Pope? And what does this mean for Henry's Evil Twin? Will he recover from his amnesia? [cue melodramatic organ music]

Ahem, sorry!

Seriously, any thoughts?

 

[Nuraghe]

All fascinating stuff, glad this got resurrected! Been thinking about Freddy Barbs of late, so perfect timing.

I'm about as far from an HRE expert as you can get (I take one look at those maps from the 30 Years War and my brain breaks a little), so forgive the basic questions, but assuming all or some of this comes to pass in some form or another and Fred I and II are able to cement a Hohenstaufen Dynasty atop the HRE going forward, could this ultimately translate into an HRE that isn't triplex-Ironic (actually Holy, Roman, and an Empire)? I.e. does the Hs Dynasty potentially set the Empire on the path ala France towards increasing rather than decreasing centralization? I know Freddy Barbs is the go-to Magnificent Bastard for HRE-wanks, but I've always wondered what the plausible Best Case is, given the numerous internal challenges.

Presumably a non-ironic HRE is the Big Kid on the block in the Middle Ages, but how does it fare in the Early Modern, or is there even a Modern era? How long could it plausibly survive? Into the 18th or 19th C even? Or is the Bubonic Plague like "hold my beer?"

How big could it get? How big could it stay? Is a German-Italian split inevitable, or could good leadership or shared values/economies or something manage to surmount the literal and figurative mountains between them?

Is it greater than the sum of its OTL parts, less than, or about equal?

How does this affect the development of Europe? A "Middle Kingdom" that all the rest pay tribute to, or a ring of rivals opposed to it? Doe any nation (e.g. France and/or Spain) form a plausible counterweight?

Will Frederick XVII and the lovely Sophia of Aquitaine retain their forbidden romance, or will the dastardly Ernesto find out and tell the Pope? And what does this mean for Henry's Evil Twin? Will he recover from his amnesia? [cue melodramatic organ music]

Ahem, sorry!

Seriously, any thoughts?

Well first of all I believe that an HRE that actually manages to centralize itself ( or at least do so partially ) with respect to OTL, is de facto the most important nation, if not actually the hegemon of the continent ( both in terms of number of inhabitants, almost 21 million approximately, against the 13 French of the time, but unlike France, having ample opportunities for expansion to the East, and for internal demographic growth, particularly in Italy, which would also increase the wealth of the HRE ) and for prestige, given that also in Otl a fairly strong Emperor, he was considered as the most important sovereign of Christianity and the other rulers had to swear loyalty to him, in some cases even after the Great Interregnum ( even if in this case, the issue was more symbolic than anything else ) now sincerely not I consider Frederick Barbarossa as the main opportunity to unify the Empire, rather it was one of the various attempts in this direction ( although it must be said, among the most successful ) as well as the Ottonians and the Salians ( where actually the highest probabilities lie to be able to successfully form a process of supranational cohesion and amalgamation between the various ethnic groups of the Empire ) but also the reigns of Henry VI and Frederick II are good opportunities to unify the state, at least in its Italian, Burgundian and Swabian components ( I say this above all because the regions and the elite of southern Germany were the ones most interested and encouraged to interact with the peninsula, both commercially and militarily to maintain control over it, so this is why compared to Saxony, they would have proven more intentional in fueling the ties between the two regions, unlike the Saxon regions where the imperial power was opposed by the Welfs house ) in reality I believe that the last possibilities of unification of the Reich can be found during the struggle for the imperial crown between Wittelsbach, Habsburg and Luxembourg, which further weakened the central government in favor of the princes ( for example I am convinced that if Maximilian I or Charles V had succeeded Sigismund I directly, perhaps inheriting his dominions, we would have seen the Habsburgs have more luck in their imperial reforms compared to Otl, perhaps expanding them to Italy too )

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@Geekhis Khan @Nuraghe It would also probably help to start by keeping the focus on the shorter and medium term (13th and 14th Centuries) -- in this case, how centralization in the HRE fares compared to the rest of Europe -- before getting into how early modernity is affected.

If we’re also accepting a longer surviving Angevin Empire as a result of the PoD - - well to start, that’s going to set back centralization in France at least somewhat (with the ironic twist that having said empire survive longer might actually mean less such delay, since they could assume overlordship of France).

 

[Nuraghe]

@Geekhis Khan @Nuraghe It would also probably help to start by keeping the focus on the shorter and medium term (13th and 14th Centuries) -- in this case, how centralization in the HRE fares compared to the rest of Europe -- before getting into how early modernity is affected.

If we’re also accepting a longer surviving Angevin Empire as a result of the PoD - - well to start, that’s going to set back centralization in France at least somewhat (with the ironic twist that having said empire survive longer might actually mean less such delay, since they could assume overlordship of France).

Certainly if we compare the administrative system that is currently emerging in France and England with respect to the Empire, I see the latter still maintaining a decentralized or federalistic aspect, compared to its other neighboring state entities, also due to the existing linguistic, cultural and political diversity within it ( given that we see free imperial cities, princely entities, ecclesiastical territories, Italian municipalities, etc. coexisting more or less peacefully ) therefore trying to create an all-encompassing bureaucratic structure for all these particularities would be extremely complex, which is why I am of the opinion that we will see a sort of expanded Golden Bull develop, with the aim of reducing the possibilities of the princes ( or the Pope ) to easily create anti-kings or at least to force them to compete with each other to gain the role of elector ( a mechanism which should strengthen the royal power, given that the attention of the princes will be diverted from attempting to directly take the crown, to having to fight to obtain the right to vote ( i.e. an intermediate step ) as already mentioned there would certainly be the problem of the autonomist push of the Italians municipalities to resolve ( who thanks to their large population, with on average around 10 thousand inhabitants per city ( with Milan reaching 100 thousand ) can afford to individually deploy armies that were important for the time ( with numbers starting from a minimum of 3000 milities ( armed with shield, chain mail or leather padded jacket, sword, spears or axes and finally crossbows ) and about 500 knights, also all perfectly trained to fight in formation, particularly effective against cavalry ) who could be faced by trying to co-opt the current system of the podestà network or at least ensuring that the imperial administration based on the " Constitutio de Regalibus " is not almost internally composed of Germans ( which in Otl facilitated papal and Milanese propaganda against the policies of Frederick I , raising concerns about the growing feeling of xenophobia in Italian municipalities ) this is why I believe that including Italian representatives in the Bull is fundamental, for mitigate the local feeling of alienation from the court and imperial politics, system which would also have the function of render vain any attempt at papal illegitimacy, based on the downgrading of the sovereign to a simple Rex Teutonicum ( which is a bit difficult to make credible, if the future Caesar is elected by an "international college" which includes Germans, Bohemians, Italians and Burgundians ) certainly this system would also have the secondary objective of making it seem to the Pontiff that the figure of the Emperor is not so totally influential within the Reich, but rather that he has counter-powers to balance it, deluding / convincing Rome that the imperial power would be less threatening compared to the past, therefore perhaps reducing the possibility of friction between the two parties

@Geekhis Khan

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Thanks, @John Fredrick Parker and @Nuraghe for the replies, greatly appreciated! I'm trying to dig out the time to provide a detailed reply, but it's looking to be a busy Sunday. I'll get back to this, I promise! Please stand by...

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Ok, scraped together some time to type! Thanks again for humoring my questions. Concur with @John Fredrick Parker about starting with the 13th and 14th Centuries. @Nuraghe, the depth of your knowledge never ceases to amaze me. My medieval knowledge, however, is like the South Platte River in Colorado: a mile wide and an inch deep, so I'll stick to broad brush strokes here. Feel free to correct any misnomers you see.

I'll talk just HRE for now and get to the rest of the world next time, likely tomorrow.

So, starting from the top. Through the Grace of God (and AH.com) F1B escapes an ignoble death by Acute Male Stubbornness and despite his advanced age managed to survive the campaign, the battles, the camp sicknesses, and the voyage home. He returns the Conqueror/Liberator of Jerusalem, returning the Holy City to Christendom. Truly he is blessed by God! Now, he could take the moment to launch a punitive expedition against Henry the Lion or something, but I'm feeling poetic today, so let's say that after the long ordeal in the Holy Land, while praying in thanks to God for the victory at the Temple of the Holy Sepulcher he vows to never again raise a sword in anger as long as he lives. Instead, he devotes the rest of his life consolidating his southern gains and paving a clear succession path for his son. I imagine he's living in constant pain at this point as his rough Warrior's Life catches up with him, and I can't imagine he lives too much longer.

Now, like Nuraghe mentioned, we're not going to see F1B just ride through the realm on a white stallion and have everyone bow down. This is still feudal Europe and for all the reasons you noted, Nuraghe, this is a very large and geographically, culturally, linguistically, and economically scattered "Empire". So I'm seeing this as the start of a long process towards more Imperial power that will likely take centuries (probably not truly unified before the arquebus becomes standard, I'd assume). Still a Loose Confederation at this point, but getting incrementally tighter. That said, as the Victor of Jerusalem, even the Pope has little choice but to recognize he's been blessed by God (I foresee beatification and even canonization in the middle to distant future) and surely the people will see this, so that's a lot of soft power on top of his considerable hard power. I really like your Golden Bull idea, Nuraghe, and as Hohenstaufen princes keep taking Burgundian and Italian wives and integrating more Italians, Burgundians, and even Bohemians into the system, they continue to build a power base in Southern Germany, Burgundy, and Italy.

Henry IV will set about continuing this consolidation and strengthening of Imperial power (I presume he grabs Sicily as OTL) as will Fred II. Whether or not a Hs Emperor gets to claim Sicily or it remains a de jura independent Kingdom under a Hs younger brother, the Papacy is still boxed in and the implicit threat is a powerful motivator to continue to "work with" the Hs Kings and Emperors. As we move through the 13th C. we're moving into strong confederacy territory, possibly loose federation. At some point things come to a head with the Welfs and their northern allies, and calling on all the wealth and military power of Italy Nuraghe mentioned, the Hs defeat the Welfs, though probably not totally crush or destroy them. But they ultimately bend the knee and reaffirm allegiance to the Imperial Crown. Perhaps a Hohenstaufen Prince takes a Welf bride as part of the negotiations, cementing some claim to the north? Speculation on my part, and I'm sure someone can correct any errors or mis-assumptions here.

By the close of the 13th C., we're still largely divided, and I presume a lot of the regions will develop more or less along paths roughly parallel to OTL, only presumably they're all starting to think of themselves as Romans to some degree (e.g. Saxon first, German second, Roman third). Presumably Latin is the official language of the court to 1) avoid the appearance of ethno-favoritism, 2) accentuate the "Roman" aspect, and 3) perhaps accentuate the "Holy" connection to the Latin Church. Presumably the far north is following a similar development path as OTL, with all the de facto independent city-states and Bishoprics becoming maritime trade cities. They showed such a willingness to cooperate OTL (Hanse) that TTL merely enhances the Hanse, as it were. Down south in Italy things are weirder, since the city-states were much more prone to direct and often violent competition and rivalry. At first, that remains the norm, I'd assume. Though in this case all being nominally "Roman" means that perhaps we start to see rival merchant families seek allies outside their polities. OTL "Capulets hate Montagues hate Capulets, but we both hate the Genovese more!" TTL perhaps the Montagues might consider an alliance with Antonio the Venetian to better undercut the Capulets. Speculating, but this could be the beginning of more economic integration.

That's my running thoughts on the HRE up through the 13th C., and not yet getting into their neighbors and world events, including the actions of a certain indirect namesake of mine. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts there.

Any thoughts on my thoughts? I might have thoughts on your thoughts of my thoughts, for your thoughts to in turn have thoughts about.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@Geekhis Khan Great stuff! How would you say this “strong confederation” compares to what the Capets had managed at the time of our PoD? Because even if it’s a lot “weaker” than the level of centralization France had achieved OTL by 1300 -- which would be a hell of a feat, and seems extremely unlikely -- the fact that these centralization efforts TTL may well be less successful means that the Holy Roman Empire is far less likely to “fall behind” the power to their west in terms of “state building” than they did OTL. And that, just by itself, would have massive implications for how early modern Europe shakes out…

 

[Geekhis Khan]

@Geekhis Khan Great stuff! How would you say this “strong confederation” compares to what the Capets had managed at the time of our PoD? Because even if it’s a lot “weaker” than the level of centralization France had achieved OTL by 1300 -- which would be a hell of a feat, and seems extremely unlikely -- the fact that these centralization efforts TTL may well be less successful means that the Holy Roman Empire is far less likely to “fall behind” the power to their west in terms of “state building” than they did OTL. And that, just by itself, would have massive implications for how early modern Europe shakes out…

Thank you, I'm humbled. Not enough of an expert on Capet France to make the comparison. Presumably the HRE confederation is weaker than that given the geographical and cultural-linguistic challenges, but still better than where they were OTL by far.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Thank you, I'm humbled. Not enough of an expert on Capet France to make the comparison. Presumably the HRE confederation is weaker than that given the geographical and cultural-linguistic challenges, but still better than where they were OTL by far.

I wouldn’t underestimate just how important the 13th century was to the process of French centralization, especially the reign of Louis IX in founding what would become the basis of French bureaucracy.

 

[Nuraghe]

@Geekhis Khan Great stuff! How would you say this “strong confederation” compares to what the Capets had managed at the time of our PoD? Because even if it’s a lot “weaker” than the level of centralization France had achieved OTL by 1300 -- which would be a hell of a feat, and seems extremely unlikely -- the fact that these centralization efforts TTL may well be less successful means that the Holy Roman Empire is far less likely to “fall behind” the power to their west in terms of “state building” than they did OTL. And that, just by itself, would have massive implications for how early modern Europe shakes out…

Thank you, I'm humbled. Not enough of an expert on Capet France to make the comparison. Presumably the HRE confederation is weaker than that given the geographical and cultural-linguistic challenges, but still better than where they were OTL by far.

For now I cannot give a precise and in-depth answer as I would like, so excuse me if this comment is very short, then I would not define HRE under the Hohenstauffen as a confederation, given that unlike contemporary Capetian France, the central power ( at least in Germany and Burgundy ) was quite notable, although still very dependent on the physical presence of the sovereign in a given region and on his military-diplomatic capacity towards the princes, furthermore in this period the royal state property was still very important ( it is clearly superior in size if compared to the Île-de-France of the Capetians ) and allowed the sovereign not to have to depend solely on his dynastic dominions or on the good will of his vassals ( the royal state property lost its importance during the dynastic struggle of the 14th century, where it was literally sold in exchange for the support of the princes for the candidacy of an aspiring Emperor between the Wittelsbach, Habsburg and Luxembourg dynasties ) furthermore also thanks to some clauses present in the Peace of Constance of 1183, Frederick could have access to huge financial resources paid to him as tribute by the Italian municipalities , which could amount to almost 1/3 of the annual tax revenue of the imperial coffers in Otl ( around 20 thousand florins per year if I'm not mistaken ) certainly being able to increase the royal capacity to involve / co-opt the Italian municipalities ( particularly those of Lombardy ) in the imperial administration would be a resounding success for the ruling dynasty ( in every sense, both politically, economically, militarily, as well as in ideological challenge with the Papacy, which would cement the " royal control " over the Italic kingdom and consequently over the " Roman " part of the Empire, given that the imperial crown was closely related to control over the peninsula and if possible over the city of Rome itself ( or at least over the abilities of the aspiring Augustus to be able to defend / influence the pontiff worthily ) although it must be said that in any case in Otl the Staufen had a discrete network of municipal entities affiliated with them ( to be precise Cremona, Pavia, Como and Pisa among the main ones ) with others to follow who sided with the imperials after being defeated militarily or through diplomacy ( such as Bergamo, Siena, Vercelli, Verona, Padua, Treviso etc ) although to be honest, technically the Lombard League was originally created to counter the hegemonic aspirations of Milan ( so much so that in the famous destruction of the Ambrosian city of 1162, all the neighboring municipal entities had participated very willingly and as an active part on the front line , who subsequently allied with it against Barbarossa )

I hope to be able to delve deeper into the matter tomorrow, especially regarding your previous comment @Geekhis Khan

 

[Geekhis Khan]

I'll defer to @Nuraghe on the speed of centralization here, and instead consider the HRE's neighbors now. These reflect my running thoughts just to keep the conversation going, and should not be seen as definitive.

Europe in 1190 at the PoD for reference

Angevin Empire: @John Fredrick Parker mentioned these guys ruling France "via" the Capets. Out of curiosity, how would that work? The Capet Kings submitting to the Plantagenet Emperor, even as he ironically submits to the Capet King as Duke of Normandy et al? I fully admit my ignorance on how all this works. But assuming that the end result is a persisting AE, that's a Mothra of a Butterfly. Presumably if the AE can consolidate at the speed of France OTL and remain unified, it's the only serious challenger to the HRE that I can identify going through the 13th C. Presumably a growingly federalized HRE taking up your entire long eastern border is a strong incentive for cooperation. Any eastwards expansion, as Nuraghe noted, is blocked by a solid HRE, so that leaves North and South, which could bode well for the Christian Iberian states and poor for the Almohads and the Scots and Irish. I could see some Angevin High King (I presume the HRE is the only "proper" titular Emperor other than the Byzantine one, right?) make a deal with the Pope to launch an Iberian Crusade seeing as the 2nd Crusade was successful iTTL, presumably meaning an earlier Reconquista (so much for my beloved Flamenco music ) . I would assume the HRE sends knights to support this, setting up a Great Game or even proxy war on the peninsula with the AE and HRE supporting different claimants and states. I'd foresee troubles with the HRE over Flanders as well.

Denmark, Norway, Sweden: traversing clockwise, we get Scandinavia. As the "Saxon" and "Brandenburgian" states grow closer to each other and to Rome, we're looking at the eventual rise of a Hanse on Steroids, I'd presume. My gut feeling is the ultimate establishment of some sort of Kalmar-esque triple crown or at least a strong confederation if only to have some chance of actively competing. Otherwise you're at best a tributary. If the Alt-Kalmar king is of local Nordic blood rather than Pomeranian or something and willing to work with the nobles, maybe there's a chance that it holds together long term. Presumably they still want to expand into Finland, Lapland, and the Livonian Coast, the latter potentially conflicting with the HRE depending on which way they choose to expand.

Lithuania & Livonian Coast: trapped between Sweden and the Teutonic Knights and the Rus States per OTL. "Interesting Times" ahead.

Rus Principalities: Mostly busy squabbling among themselves, I'd presume. They'll soon have much bigger problems.

Teutonic Knights: Presumably allied with or proxies of the HRE? Possible expansion path? Or stubbornly resisting HRE domination? Any thoughts?

Poland: Good question! Having a solidifying HRE and few defensible borders is no bueno. Do they become dominated by the HRE and become a tributary state or even annexed, or do they partner with their neighbors (Teutons, Lithuanians, Hungarians, even?) to try and retain as much sovereignty as possible?

Hungary: Same as with Poland. Vassal, tributary, or stubborn resistance?

Servia and Bulgaria: Caught between Empires. Tactful diplomacy needed, I'd assume.

Cumans and other Steppe Tribes: Cumans gonna Cuman. But they've got bigger problems ahead.

Byzantine Empire/ERE: It was the worst of times, it was almost the worster of times. Arguably doing better than OTL since I presume butterflies ate the 4th Crusade, but good luck telling them that! Not only are the Turks knockin' on their door, but while Jerusalem was freed (God be praised) it was by that German who has the audacity to claim to be Emperor of Rome!! I imagine relations are tense, but mutually-reliant. I presume that with the Crusader States holding on and no Ayyubid Dynasty to face that their southern flank is covered and even some money is flowing in, but that doesn't translate to a comeback. With Italian merchants out of Cyprus bypassing them more and more, there's not much to do but watch their western rival and Frenemy grow in power and influence while theirs continues to wane. Or am I missing something?

Seljuks and other ME Islamic powers: No Ayyubids means no major rivals, but existing Crusader States are a pain. I'm totally out of my depth here, but I presume at some point somebody takes up the mantle of Preserver of the Faith and Defender Against the Infidels? New Caliphate Rising? Jerusalem must be liberated at some point, right? All Three Cities or Nothing, right? That said, bigger problems are a'comin'.

Crusader States: Hardly know where to begin! So far out of my depth I'm on Mount Everest here. F1B saved them from Saladin, but I don't imagine that their position is any less tenuous than before he arrived on the scene. Logistics remain a challenge for them while their immediate enemies have shorter supply lines. Egypt remains a threat. What Will Persia Do? Of course, an unlikely savior could be on the way...or would that be vanquisher?

Egypt: Presumably holding on. Far from an expert. Target of another Crusade to help protect Jerusalem's southern flank? Not the expert by any means.

North Africa: Almohads may soon be at war in Iberia. Possibly Tunisia too if the HRE sees an opportunity. Presumably HRE could grab Tunis. Not sure if they could hold it indefinitely. No expert for sure!

{drum roll}

And finally, the Man of the Century, the Beast from the East, the New Scourge of God, and indirect namesake of a know-nothing know-it-all AH.com poster. Khan you feel it? It's the one, the only...Genghis Khan! Let's get ready to Horde!!

Mongols: You knew it was coming. Temujin's birth predates the PoD and I can't see any butterflies beyond the purely random that would impede his rise to power, so I presume the Great Horde is on its way. With a different 2nd Crusade, is the ME even less prepared than OTL? Presumably the Rus are still screwed, but I presume that the same geographic, climactic, and logistic reasons that stopped the Horde from ravaging Central and Western Europe hold true here, though I can imagine Roman Knights being sent to face this new challenge on the Pontic Steppes or something and getting a rude awakening. Even after the Khagan's passing, his inheritors will be an ongoing pain. Would the Crusader States face any problems here? Or does the fact that the Islamic powers are bearing the brunt further strengthen their hand?

Mongols (vis-à-vis Crusader States): Accidental Salvation or Imminent Doom? Discuss!

 

[Nuraghe]

For now I cannot give a precise and in-depth answer as I would like, so excuse me if this comment is very short, then I would not define HRE under the Hohenstauffen as a confederation, given that unlike contemporary Capetian France, the central power ( at least in Germany and Burgundy ) was quite notable, although still very dependent on the physical presence of the sovereign in a given region and on his military-diplomatic capacity towards the princes, furthermore in this period the royal state property was still very important ( it is clearly superior in size if compared to the Île-de-France of the Capetians ) and allowed the sovereign not to have to depend solely on his dynastic dominions or on the good will of his vassals ( the royal state property lost its importance during the dynastic struggle of the 14th century, where it was literally sold in exchange for the support of the princes for the candidacy of an aspiring Emperor between the Wittelsbach, Habsburg and Luxembourg dynasties ) furthermore also thanks to some clauses present in the Peace of Constance of 1183, Frederick could have access to huge financial resources paid to him as tribute by the Italian municipalities , which could amount to almost 1/3 of the annual tax revenue of the imperial coffers in Otl ( around 20 thousand florins per year if I'm not mistaken ) certainly being able to increase the royal capacity to involve / co-opt the Italian municipalities ( particularly those of Lombardy ) in the imperial administration would be a resounding success for the ruling dynasty ( in every sense, both politically, economically, militarily, as well as in ideological challenge with the Papacy, which would cement the " royal control " over the Italic kingdom and consequently over the " Roman " part of the Empire, given that the imperial crown was closely related to control over the peninsula and if possible over the city of Rome itself ( or at least over the abilities of the aspiring Augustus to be able to defend / influence the pontiff worthily ) although it must be said that in any case in Otl the Staufen had a discrete network of municipal entities affiliated with them ( to be precise Cremona, Pavia, Como and Pisa among the main ones ) with others to follow who sided with the imperials after being defeated militarily or through diplomacy ( such as Bergamo, Siena, Vercelli, Verona, Padua, Treviso etc ) although to be honest, technically the Lombard League was originally created to counter the hegemonic aspirations of Milan ( so much so that in the famous destruction of the Ambrosian city of 1162, all the neighboring municipal entities had participated very willingly and as an active part on the front line , who subsequently allied with it against Barbarossa )

I hope to be able to delve deeper into the matter tomorrow, especially regarding your previous comment @Geekhis Khan

Ok, scraped together some time to type! Thanks again for humoring my questions. Concur with @John Fredrick Parker about starting with the 13th and 14th Centuries. @Nuraghe, the depth of your knowledge never ceases to amaze me. My medieval knowledge, however, is like the South Platte River in Colorado: a mile wide and an inch deep, so I'll stick to broad brush strokes here. Feel free to correct any misnomers you see.

I'll talk just HRE for now and get to the rest of the world next time, likely tomorrow.

So, starting from the top. Through the Grace of God (and AH.com) F1B escapes an ignoble death by Acute Male Stubbornness and despite his advanced age managed to survive the campaign, the battles, the camp sicknesses, and the voyage home. He returns the Conqueror/Liberator of Jerusalem, returning the Holy City to Christendom. Truly he is blessed by God! Now, he could take the moment to launch a punitive expedition against Henry the Lion or something, but I'm feeling poetic today, so let's say that after the long ordeal in the Holy Land, while praying in thanks to God for the victory at the Temple of the Holy Sepulcher he vows to never again raise a sword in anger as long as he lives. Instead, he devotes the rest of his life consolidating his southern gains and paving a clear succession path for his son. I imagine he's living in constant pain at this point as his rough Warrior's Life catches up with him, and I can't imagine he lives too much longer.

Now, like Nuraghe mentioned, we're not going to see F1B just ride through the realm on a white stallion and have everyone bow down. This is still feudal Europe and for all the reasons you noted, Nuraghe, this is a very large and geographically, culturally, linguistically, and economically scattered "Empire". So I'm seeing this as the start of a long process towards more Imperial power that will likely take centuries (probably not truly unified before the arquebus becomes standard, I'd assume). Still a Loose Confederation at this point, but getting incrementally tighter. That said, as the Victor of Jerusalem, even the Pope has little choice but to recognize he's been blessed by God (I foresee beatification and even canonization in the middle to distant future) and surely the people will see this, so that's a lot of soft power on top of his considerable hard power. I really like your Golden Bull idea, Nuraghe, and as Hohenstaufen princes keep taking Burgundian and Italian wives and integrating more Italians, Burgundians, and even Bohemians into the system, they continue to build a power base in Southern Germany, Burgundy, and Italy.

Henry IV will set about continuing this consolidation and strengthening of Imperial power (I presume he grabs Sicily as OTL) as will Fred II. Whether or not a Hs Emperor gets to claim Sicily or it remains a de jura independent Kingdom under a Hs younger brother, the Papacy is still boxed in and the implicit threat is a powerful motivator to continue to "work with" the Hs Kings and Emperors. As we move through the 13th C. we're moving into strong confederacy territory, possibly loose federation. At some point things come to a head with the Welfs and their northern allies, and calling on all the wealth and military power of Italy Nuraghe mentioned, the Hs defeat the Welfs, though probably not totally crush or destroy them. But they ultimately bend the knee and reaffirm allegiance to the Imperial Crown. Perhaps a Hohenstaufen Prince takes a Welf bride as part of the negotiations, cementing some claim to the north? Speculation on my part, and I'm sure someone can correct any errors or mis-assumptions here.

By the close of the 13th C., we're still largely divided, and I presume a lot of the regions will develop more or less along paths roughly parallel to OTL, only presumably they're all starting to think of themselves as Romans to some degree (e.g. Saxon first, German second, Roman third). Presumably Latin is the official language of the court to 1) avoid the appearance of ethno-favoritism, 2) accentuate the "Roman" aspect, and 3) perhaps accentuate the "Holy" connection to the Latin Church. Presumably the far north is following a similar development path as OTL, with all the de facto independent city-states and Bishoprics becoming maritime trade cities. They showed such a willingness to cooperate OTL (Hanse) that TTL merely enhances the Hanse, as it were. Down south in Italy things are weirder, since the city-states were much more prone to direct and often violent competition and rivalry. At first, that remains the norm, I'd assume. Though in this case all being nominally "Roman" means that perhaps we start to see rival merchant families seek allies outside their polities. OTL "Capulets hate Montagues hate Capulets, but we both hate the Genovese more!" TTL perhaps the Montagues might consider an alliance with Antonio the Venetian to better undercut the Capulets. Speculating, but this could be the beginning of more economic integration.

That's my running thoughts on the HRE up through the 13th C., and not yet getting into their neighbors and world events, including the actions of a certain indirect namesake of mine. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts there.

Any thoughts on my thoughts? I might have thoughts on your thoughts of my thoughts, for your thoughts to in turn have thoughts about.

Then as promised here is the part that specifically addresses the various problems that the Hohenstauffen will have to overcome to try to centralize ( even partially ) the HRE, first of all we must consider that in the Empire there was a strong fracture at a political level between two factions fighting each other (1) which we can summarize in this way :

the "Frankish" party ( with important interests in Italy and in the French-speaking part of the Empire, which then further evolved to become the Ghibellines ) and the "Saxon" one (2) which disapproved of this dynastic transition, given that it distanced them from power and which caused a loss of interest on the part of the central government in supporting expansion to the East against the Slavs, as well as strengthening ties with Denmark and above all with England ( very important from the point of view of the Saxon faction ) in in particular they poorly tolerated the imperial policies of weakening the princes ( which affected them the most, given that they were the nobles with the greatest accumulation of dominions in the Reich ), to be more precise, we must consider this division as a rift between the regions themselves ( with their components, who, depending on the circumstances, preferred one policy rather than another ) clear example : the Wettin who in all this havoc they were aligned with the "Saxon party" while the Lorraines tended to be more on the opposite side, the same goes for the clergy ( who in this cleverly pitted the two parties against each other to gain favors and weaken the authority central Rome over them ) or even the imperial cities that were secretly supporters of the "Franco-Roman" government against the tendencies of the nobility of Saxon origin to subject the cities to their total control ( see in fact that in the eastern part of the Reich there are no free imperial cities, just as there are not even large agglomerations of ecclesiastical territory vaguely similar in size to Trier, Mainz etc ) curious curiosity, this "division" almost follows the one created two centuries later, with the advent of the Reformation, see it as a symptom, which allows us to understand the extent to which the direct power of the Emperor can more or less reach, which then led to the creation of the Golden Bull and the formalization of the Electors ( who in practice had to represent the "imperial power" in their territories, and if known they faithfully followed this clear difference of ideas in the Empire, but which in reality were the recognition by the Emperor that he could not exercise his power in some areas without having the consent of the local elites (3 ) so to recap, what we have here : we see two totally opposite political currents, with cultural ties and divergent economic ones, to which are added dynastic conflicts that are closely linked with the struggle between the Papacy and the Empire ( which allows the nobles and Popes to make common cause against the ambitions ( from their point of view too exaggerated ) of the Emperors


To conclude I do not see Frederick's heirs trying to subjugate all the princes of the Empire, but rather as their Otl successors did, choosing those located in strategic places of the Reich ( mainly I imagine that they choose them in places where the direct influence of the office imperial is weak, and perhaps more geographically distributed ) and raise them in a possible Golden Bull, this project is also useful for another reason : since it can be seen as a way to centralize the state without having to defeat everyone in battle the existing imperial princes to do it, just choose who to reward with the " new " and prestigious role, and he will do the dirty work for you, even very willingly ( divide and conquer, it works quite well, moreover, if one of the recognized Electors is the Emperor himself or his heir, it is difficult not to have some influence in making a decisional progress, eventually the process will become almost as automatic as OTL ( excluding capitulations ) once the possible political machinations of the princes are reduced, since it will be difficult to create anti-King as in the past, without contradicting the new constitution ( the Golden Bull ) or risking being subject to immediate imperial banishment ( as traitors to the laws of the Reich ), the princes find their ambitions neutered ( since with the new law, their interest shifts from wanting to immediately become possible Emperors to first of all having to be recognized as Electors ( because otherwise their aspirations are thwarted, given that they cannot have a solid base, which cannot be divided among the children, nor can vote ) therefore they are politically harmless, if everything were to work ( it doesn't necessarily work perfectly ) we would find ourselves faced with a vaguely centralized state, with a more or less developed administration, without a clear prevailing nationality ( since technically the Emperor would have a greater claim than OTL not to define itself with a very specific ethnicity, as well as the fact that a greater ( and continuous ) presence of Italy in the internal affairs of the State will transform the elective system into one more representative of the multiple actors and interests of the Empire, in addition to preventing the formation of the common Otl thought, that the wars in Italy concerned only the Emperor and that was it, therefore that they did not require the intervention of the Empire itself ( a very common idea from Sigismund onwards, who under the Habsburgs the OTL became almost consolidated, even if the first tried in every way to prove the opposite )


1 ) predates the Staufen, is that it dates back to the disputed election of the Salians to the imperial throne, by the Saxon aristocracy, who saw themselves as the legitimate successors of the Ottonians


2) which as is easily predictable, being led by the Welfs family, who due to the transliteration into Italian of their most common dynastic name, were called Guelfi, hence became the Guelph party


3 ) furthermore, it must be kept in mind that the empire extends over a very vast territory, which goes from the Baltic Sea to the north, up to the Mediterranean and the Adriatic to the south, all with the Alps in the middle ( without forgetting the borders with France and those where the princes push to continue the expansion of the HRE eastward, a process known as Ostsiedlung, which Otl abruptly interrupted due to the plague ) is an immense whole and extremely difficult to govern/administer by a single person or a small entourage, this is where these ATL electoral principles can come in handy, as vicars of imperial power, especially because they could be the right solution between the emperor's centralizing policies and the autonomist push of some regions ( such as Saxony or Italy )

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Angevin Empire: @John Fredrick Parker mentioned these guys ruling France "via" the Capets. Out of curiosity, how would that work? The Capet Kings submitting to the Plantagenet Emperor, even as he ironically submits to the Capet King as Duke of Normandy et al? I fully admit my ignorance on how all this works. But assuming that the end result is a persisting AE, that's a Mothra of a Butterfly.

My thinking is -- first and foremost, the Angevin Empire is likely to survive longer TTL, instead of losing most of their French lands in the early 13th Century as OTL. This, in turn, at the very least means that the consolidation of power in France under the Capets is now significantly delayed.

So with this much established, what’s next? Well, especially as England itself recovers more and more from the Anarchy, it could be argued the Angevins Kings are overall somewhat more powerful than the Capet Kings they ostensibly owe fealty to. Because here we have to make a distinction between the lands ruled by the Capetians and their title as Kings of West Francia, a title they inherited from the Carolingians. Here’s a map of France in 1180; the realm under direct rule by the French kings are in blue:

What I’m thinking is -- the setback to centralization under the Capetians is now so far setback here TTL, would it not the quicker route to “restoring” this project be for now the more powerful Angevins to “inherit” the title as Kings if West Francia, as opposed to waiting longer for the weaker Capetians to recover? This isn’t to say that eventual unification under the Capets isn’t also a possibility, only that it would probably take longer at this point for the Angevins to inherit than consolidate power themselves.

Anyway, I’ll be getting to the rest of the post later; just wanted to make that clarification.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Then as promised here is the part that specifically addresses the various problems that the Hohenstauffen will have to overcome to try to centralize ( even partially ) the HRE, first of all we must consider that in the Empire there was a strong fracture at a political level between two factions fighting each other (1) which we can summarize in this way :

Thanks, Nuraghe, that comes about as close to making sense as HRE Internal Politics ever will for me, LOL. I'd wondered what the link was between Welfs and Guelphs, so thanks for explaining that. Wasn't sure if they were the same clan or different, TBH.

Pretty much the "Long Game" approach for the Hs I'd imagined, even as the details were well beyond my depth.

Anyway, I’ll be getting to the rest of the post later; just wanted to make that clarification.

Ah, copy, I understand now. Angevins, presumably supported by their allies in the HRE, are able to hold the Capets at bay long enough to find a path to real power themselves. How long does this take? Do we have a unified-ish AE by 1300? Do we see some Plantagenet-Capet Union of Crowns approach?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Ah, copy, I understand now. Angevins, presumably supported by their allies in the HRE, are able to hold the Capets at bay long enough to find a path to real power themselves. How long does this take? Do we have a unified-ish AE by 1300? Do we see some Plantagenet-Capet Union of Crowns approach?

Again, two questions here -- first, how long (if ever) does it take for the Plantagenets to claim the title of "King of France" from the Capets? Second, how do the various French duchies territorially fare in the interim? Two counties to keep an eye on here are Flanders and Toulouse (the latter of which may be avoiding falling under Captain dominion TTL as an effect).

Denmark, Norway, Sweden: ...

Given they remained three independent kingdoms for a time after our PoD, you could also see unification play out differently TTL; for just one example, Denmark and Sweden may achieve a personal union that doesn't involve Norway.

Teutonic Knights: Presumably allied with or proxies of the HRE? Possible expansion path? Or stubbornly resisting HRE domination? Any thoughts?

The more relevant thing to note where the Teutonic Knights are concerned isn't the general power of the HRE, but the power of the Emperor in relation to the Pope.

Poland: Good question! Having a solidifying HRE and few defensible borders is no bueno. Do they become dominated by the HRE and become a tributary state or even annexed, or do they partner with their neighbors (Teutons, Lithuanians, Hungarians, even?) to try and retain as much sovereignty as possible?

Hungary: Same as with Poland. Vassal, tributary, or stubborn resistance?

Well, they would be more tied culturally speaking to the Catholic HRE than to their eastern Orthodox neighbors, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be dominated by the former.

Servia and Bulgaria: Caught between Empires. Tactful diplomacy needed, I'd assume.

Byzantine Empire/ERE: It was the worst of times, it was almost the worster of times. Arguably doing better than OTL since I presume butterflies ate the 4th Crusade, but good luck telling them that! Not only are the Turks knockin' on their door, but while Jerusalem was freed (God be praised) it was by that German who has the audacity to claim to be Emperor of Rome!! I imagine relations are tense, but mutually-reliant. I presume that with the Crusader States holding on and no Ayyubid Dynasty to face that their southern flank is covered and even some money is flowing in, but that doesn't translate to a comeback. With Italian merchants out of Cyprus bypassing them more and more, there's not much to do but watch their western rival and Frenemy grow in power and influence while theirs continues to wane. Or am I missing something?

Seljuks and other ME Islamic powers: No Ayyubids means no major rivals, but existing Crusader States are a pain. I'm totally out of my depth here, but I presume at some point somebody takes up the mantle of Preserver of the Faith and Defender Against the Infidels? New Caliphate Rising? Jerusalem must be liberated at some point, right? All Three Cities or Nothing, right? That said, bigger problems are a'comin'.

Crusader States: Hardly know where to begin! So far out of my depth I'm on Mount Everest here. F1B saved them from Saladin, but I don't imagine that their position is any less tenuous than before he arrived on the scene. Logistics remain a challenge for them while their immediate enemies have shorter supply lines. Egypt remains a threat. What Will Persia Do? Of course, an unlikely savior could be on the way...or would that be vanquisher?

Egypt: Presumably holding on. Far from an expert. Target of another Crusade to help protect Jerusalem's southern flank? Not the expert by any means.

North Africa: Almohads may soon be at war in Iberia. Possibly Tunisia too if the HRE sees an opportunity. Presumably HRE could grab Tunis. Not sure if they could hold it indefinitely. No expert for sure!

{drum roll}

And finally, the Man of the Century, the Beast from the East, the New Scourge of God, and indirect namesake of a know-nothing know-it-all AH.com poster. Khan you feel it? It's the one, the only...Genghis Khan! Let's get ready to Horde!!

Mongols: You knew it was coming. Temujin's birth predates the PoD and I can't see any butterflies beyond the purely random that would impede his rise to power, so I presume the Great Horde is on its way. With a different 2nd Crusade, is the ME even less prepared than OTL? Presumably the Rus are still screwed, but I presume that the same geographic, climactic, and logistic reasons that stopped the Horde from ravaging Central and Western Europe hold true here, though I can imagine Roman Knights being sent to face this new challenge on the Pontic Steppes or something and getting a rude awakening. Even after the Khagan's passing, his inheritors will be an ongoing pain. Would the Crusader States face any problems here? Or does the fact that the Islamic powers are bearing the brunt further strengthen their hand?

Mongols (vis-à-vis Crusader States): Accidental Salvation or Imminent Doom? Discuss!

So this gets into the overall effects of a more successful Third Crusade, and a lot of this has been discussed before in other threads. but I'll just say this much for right now -- avoiding the Fourth Crusade really is a huge deal for the Byzantine Empire, and has the potential to completely remake the 13th Century and subsequent history for them.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Again, two questions here -- first, how long (if ever) does it take for the Plantagenets to claim the title of "King of France" from the Capets? Second, how do the various French duchies territorially fare in the interim? Two counties to keep an eye on here are Flanders and Toulouse (the latter of which may be avoiding falling under Captain dominion TTL as an effect).

Certainly my questions, LOL. Notable in that map you posted is the difference in de jura vs de facto control (red solid v. dashed lines). Perhaps @Nuraghe has some insights that could answer the hanging questions, as i can only guess.

Given they remained three independent kingdoms for a time after our PoD, you could also see unification play out differently TTL; for just one example, Denmark and Sweden may achieve a personal union that doesn't involve Norway.

Almost certainly would see unification play out differently. Butterflies certainly kill the OTL Kalmar Union as we knew it, but nothing specifically precludes a similar arrangement. One crown or two crowns or three is a complex question as much depends on who marries who when and why and how well their kids come out. You could likely justify just about anything.

The more relevant thing to note where the Teutonic Knights are concerned isn't the general power of the HRE, but the power of the Emperor in relation to the Pope.

Certainly so. I could only guess here. Hoping someone smarter than me on the TO chimes in!

Well, they would be more tied culturally speaking to the Catholic HRE than to their eastern Orthodox neighbors, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be dominated by the former.

Certainly my thoughts. I figure they're caught in a push-pull between liturgical authority and religious ties and pragmatic secular and strategic aims. Perhaps a sort of on-again, off-again tributary relationship like the Koreans, Jurchins, and Mongols had with the Ming, the strength of the ties waxing and waning with the personalities of various monarchs and emperors and various geo-economic and political concerns,.

So this gets into the overall effects of a more successful Third Crusade, and a lot of this has been discussed before in other threads. but I'll just say this much for right now -- avoiding the Fourth Crusade really is a huge deal for the Byzantine Empire, and has the potential to completely remake the 13th Century and subsequent history for them.

Yes, no Sack of C-Town is a hell of a nice butterfly for the ERE. This will definitely strengthen their hand going forward compared to OTL, though plenty of challenges and obstacles (long since losing the Anatolian Heartland, getting bypassed by the Venetians et al) remain. I'm curious how the seemingly to me inevitable rivalry with the HRE will play out.

 

[Nuraghe]

I'll defer to @Nuraghe on the speed of centralization here, and instead consider the HRE's neighbors now. These reflect my running thoughts just to keep the conversation going, and should not be seen as definitive.

Europe in 1190 at the PoD for reference

Angevin Empire: @John Fredrick Parker mentioned these guys ruling France "via" the Capets. Out of curiosity, how would that work? The Capet Kings submitting to the Plantagenet Emperor, even as he ironically submits to the Capet King as Duke of Normandy et al? I fully admit my ignorance on how all this works. But assuming that the end result is a persisting AE, that's a Mothra of a Butterfly. Presumably if the AE can consolidate at the speed of France OTL and remain unified, it's the only serious challenger to the HRE that I can identify going through the 13th C. Presumably a growingly federalized HRE taking up your entire long eastern border is a strong incentive for cooperation. Any eastwards expansion, as Nuraghe noted, is blocked by a solid HRE, so that leaves North and South, which could bode well for the Christian Iberian states and poor for the Almohads and the Scots and Irish. I could see some Angevin High King (I presume the HRE is the only "proper" titular Emperor other than the Byzantine one, right?) make a deal with the Pope to launch an Iberian Crusade seeing as the 2nd Crusade was successful iTTL, presumably meaning an earlier Reconquista (so much for my beloved Flamenco music ) . I would assume the HRE sends knights to support this, setting up a Great Game or even proxy war on the peninsula with the AE and HRE supporting different claimants and states. I'd foresee troubles with the HRE over Flanders as well.

Denmark, Norway, Sweden: traversing clockwise, we get Scandinavia. As the "Saxon" and "Brandenburgian" states grow closer to each other and to Rome, we're looking at the eventual rise of a Hanse on Steroids, I'd presume. My gut feeling is the ultimate establishment of some sort of Kalmar-esque triple crown or at least a strong confederation if only to have some chance of actively competing. Otherwise you're at best a tributary. If the Alt-Kalmar king is of local Nordic blood rather than Pomeranian or something and willing to work with the nobles, maybe there's a chance that it holds together long term. Presumably they still want to expand into Finland, Lapland, and the Livonian Coast, the latter potentially conflicting with the HRE depending on which way they choose to expand.

Lithuania & Livonian Coast: trapped between Sweden and the Teutonic Knights and the Rus States per OTL. "Interesting Times" ahead.

Rus Principalities: Mostly busy squabbling among themselves, I'd presume. They'll soon have much bigger problems.

Teutonic Knights: Presumably allied with or proxies of the HRE? Possible expansion path? Or stubbornly resisting HRE domination? Any thoughts?

Poland: Good question! Having a solidifying HRE and few defensible borders is no bueno. Do they become dominated by the HRE and become a tributary state or even annexed, or do they partner with their neighbors (Teutons, Lithuanians, Hungarians, even?) to try and retain as much sovereignty as possible?

Hungary: Same as with Poland. Vassal, tributary, or stubborn resistance?

Servia and Bulgaria: Caught between Empires. Tactful diplomacy needed, I'd assume.

Cumans and other Steppe Tribes: Cumans gonna Cuman. But they've got bigger problems ahead.

Byzantine Empire/ERE: It was the worst of times, it was almost the worster of times. Arguably doing better than OTL since I presume butterflies ate the 4th Crusade, but good luck telling them that! Not only are the Turks knockin' on their door, but while Jerusalem was freed (God be praised) it was by that German who has the audacity to claim to be Emperor of Rome!! I imagine relations are tense, but mutually-reliant. I presume that with the Crusader States holding on and no Ayyubid Dynasty to face that their southern flank is covered and even some money is flowing in, but that doesn't translate to a comeback. With Italian merchants out of Cyprus bypassing them more and more, there's not much to do but watch their western rival and Frenemy grow in power and influence while theirs continues to wane. Or am I missing something?

Seljuks and other ME Islamic powers: No Ayyubids means no major rivals, but existing Crusader States are a pain. I'm totally out of my depth here, but I presume at some point somebody takes up the mantle of Preserver of the Faith and Defender Against the Infidels? New Caliphate Rising? Jerusalem must be liberated at some point, right? All Three Cities or Nothing, right? That said, bigger problems are a'comin'.

Crusader States: Hardly know where to begin! So far out of my depth I'm on Mount Everest here. F1B saved them from Saladin, but I don't imagine that their position is any less tenuous than before he arrived on the scene. Logistics remain a challenge for them while their immediate enemies have shorter supply lines. Egypt remains a threat. What Will Persia Do? Of course, an unlikely savior could be on the way...or would that be vanquisher?

Egypt: Presumably holding on. Far from an expert. Target of another Crusade to help protect Jerusalem's southern flank? Not the expert by any means.

North Africa: Almohads may soon be at war in Iberia. Possibly Tunisia too if the HRE sees an opportunity. Presumably HRE could grab Tunis. Not sure if they could hold it indefinitely. No expert for sure!

{drum roll}

And finally, the Man of the Century, the Beast from the East, the New Scourge of God, and indirect namesake of a know-nothing know-it-all AH.com poster. Khan you feel it? It's the one, the only...Genghis Khan! Let's get ready to Horde!!

Mongols: You knew it was coming. Temujin's birth predates the PoD and I can't see any butterflies beyond the purely random that would impede his rise to power, so I presume the Great Horde is on its way. With a different 2nd Crusade, is the ME even less prepared than OTL? Presumably the Rus are still screwed, but I presume that the same geographic, climactic, and logistic reasons that stopped the Horde from ravaging Central and Western Europe hold true here, though I can imagine Roman Knights being sent to face this new challenge on the Pontic Steppes or something and getting a rude awakening. Even after the Khagan's passing, his inheritors will be an ongoing pain. Would the Crusader States face any problems here? Or does the fact that the Islamic powers are bearing the brunt further strengthen their hand?

Mongols (vis-à-vis Crusader States): Accidental Salvation or Imminent Doom? Discuss!

Again, two questions here -- first, how long (if ever) does it take for the Plantagenets to claim the title of "King of France" from the Capets? Second, how do the various French duchies territorially fare in the interim? Two counties to keep an eye on here are Flanders and Toulouse (the latter of which may be avoiding falling under Captain dominion TTL as an effect).

Given they remained three independent kingdoms for a time after our PoD, you could also see unification play out differently TTL; for just one example, Denmark and Sweden may achieve a personal union that doesn't involve Norway.

The more relevant thing to note where the Teutonic Knights are concerned isn't the general power of the HRE, but the power of the Emperor in relation to the Pope.

Well, they would be more tied culturally speaking to the Catholic HRE than to their eastern Orthodox neighbors, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be dominated by the former.

So this gets into the overall effects of a more successful Third Crusade, and a lot of this has been discussed before in other threads. but I'll just say this much for right now -- avoiding the Fourth Crusade really is a huge deal for the Byzantine Empire, and has the potential to completely remake the 13th Century and subsequent history for them.

My thinking is -- first and foremost, the Angevin Empire is likely to survive longer TTL, instead of losing most of their French lands in the early 13th Century as OTL. This, in turn, at the very least means that the consolidation of power in France under the Capets is now significantly delayed.

So with this much established, what’s next? Well, especially as England itself recovers more and more from the Anarchy, it could be argued the Angevins Kings are overall somewhat more powerful than the Capet Kings they ostensibly owe fealty to. Because here we have to make a distinction between the lands ruled by the Capetians and their title as Kings of West Francia, a title they inherited from the Carolingians. Here’s a map of France in 1180; the realm under direct rule by the French kings are in blue:

What I’m thinking is -- the setback to centralization under the Capetians is now so far setback here TTL, would it not the quicker route to “restoring” this project be for now the more powerful Angevins to “inherit” the title as Kings if West Francia, as opposed to waiting longer for the weaker Capetians to recover? This isn’t to say that eventual unification under the Capets isn’t also a possibility, only that it would probably take longer at this point for the Angevins to inherit than consolidate power themselves.

Anyway, I’ll be getting to the rest of the post later; just wanted to make that clarification.

Based on your comments, I will also try to imagine how a centralizing HRE could have influenced the development of the political entities close to it, even if I will limit myself only to the European states ( i.e. those whose history I know best ), the first international actors who will be heavily influenced by a politically more stable HRE are obviously the Norman Kingdom of Sicily and the State of the Church, which will find themselves inexorably drawn into its sphere of influence ( the first through dynastic inheritance, given that the future emperor Henry VI , is also the sovereign of Sicily ( who wants to use it as a new dynastic base, given that it allows the Staufen to benefit from a possession free from the legislative limitations of the Empire, as well as being able to better intervene against the Italian municipalities and possibly the Papacy, without forget that the strategic position of the Kingdom allows it to implement a wide-ranging international policy in the Mediterranean ( see in Otl how Henrich managed to obtain a special tribute called Alamainikon from Isaac II, with the aim of avoiding possible invasions of the Swabian King ), consolidating the prestige and the imperial claims of the dynasty ) then to follow we have Rome, which seeing itself surrounded on both sides, will initially try with diplomacy to prevent the imperial figure from becoming too powerful ( I can easily imagine that the idea of the Golden Bull originally comes from by the Holy See, as a way to maintain a sort of counter-power to the imperial office in the HRE ) in case the former were to fail, it is not unlikely that the Papacy would support ( both diplomatically and economically ) alliances ( including military ones ) against the Staufen ( as Otl ties Lombard league or the Guelphs ) knowing full well that it would still be an extremely risky game ( especially with the Staufen who can count on the support of the Roman aristocratic families and the Senate, who are more than capable of destabilizing the internal politics of the Urbe )

to follow we have the situation in West Frankia, which despite seeing a slowdown in the centralization policy by the Capetians in favor of the greater nobility ( such as the Plantagenets or the sovereigns of Aragon, who had fiefdoms in the south of the kingdom ) should not mean a future crisis dynastic for the moment ( already with Philip Augustus, the Capetians had almost transformed the royal election into a mere formality, so barring some tragic event, I don't see them at risk of losing the throne ) although I can see France becoming de
jure almost divided into two parts


the development of the Byzantine empire is extremely closely linked both to the continuation or eventual collapse of the Angelois dynasty and to the 4th crusade ( which may not happen or be directed towards other shores, such as Tunisia for example ) effectively with a more solid HRE , the relations between the two Roman Empires will certainly not be easy, the controversy of the two Emperors will probably return forcefully to the fore ( in part it already happened in Otl, exactly with the Staufen ) therefore I do not exclude possible financing for the internal opponents of the Staufen or for the nations neighboring the HRE ( all things already widely done in OTL with both Manuel I and Isaac II, in particular supporting Milan and Henry the Lion ) but we cannot even discard the possibility of Constantinople's acceptance of the HRE's claim to the imperial title as legitimate ( which also already happened in the past Otl, first with the Carolingians and then with Otto III, who were called Frankish Emperors or even as Caesar of the West ( implying a recognition of a renewed WRE, albeit inferior in rank to Constantinople ) with a marriage proposal in tow, with the aim of normalizing relations between the two imperial courts

at this moment Bela III reigns in Hungary, a highly capable ruler, who should not suffer too much from the growing influence of the HRE in his Kingdom, given that he would be more than capable of countering or mitigating it, but I do not exclude that a weaker ruler could be forced to have to swear an oath of vassalage to the Emperor

for the situation of Poland, it must be considered that the kingdom after the death of King Boleslaw III Crookedmouth in 1138, was divided among his sons into many principalities and remained in these conditions for 192 years, so it is not unlikely to think that Bohemia and the Saxon princes, take advantage of the chaotic situation in which the kingdom finds itself to redefine small territorial gains to the detriment of Poland


Scandinavia is unfortunately not a place whose history I know well, but I can imagine ( based on the relations between the Hansa and local kingdoms ) that we will see Denmark continue to swear allegiance to the Emperor ( due to the imperial fiefdoms held by the Danish king ) especially if HRE becomes more politically capable of posing an existential threat in the region

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Yes, no Sack of C-Town is a hell of a nice butterfly for the ERE. This will definitely strengthen their hand going forward compared to OTL, though plenty of challenges and obstacles (long since losing the Anatolian Heartland, getting bypassed by the Venetians et al) remain. I'm curious how the seemingly to me inevitable rivalry with the HRE will play out.

Well in the short to medium term, a lot of the things the Byzantines are going to want to get a handle on -- rebuilding their navy, retaking Anatolian territory, and even extending their influence over Serbia and Bulgaria -- aren't really anything that the HRE is going to see as any threat to them, and may even be encouraged in that direction. Now, once you have an Eastern Roman Emperor whose predecessors have managed that much, then you very well may see a kind of rivalry emerge.

Two other developments in this TL could help this come about -- first, the Crusader States may eventually do so well as to take control of Syria (Damascus and Homs), effectively cutting off Egypt from Mesopotamia; and second, of course, are the Mongols, who are certainly still going to devastate the latter. If the Byzantines play it smart, this could see them effectively secure their eastern border. In this kind of context, I can even see opportunistic invasions of North Africa by the HRE or other Christian powers (e.g. the potential establishment of another "crusader state" in Tunis) down the line as well.

for the situation of Poland, it must be considered that the kingdom after the death of King Boleslaw III Crookedmouth in 1138, was divided among his sons into many principalities and remained in these conditions for 192 years, so it is not unlikely to think that Bohemia and the princes Saxons, take advantage of the chaotic situation in which the kingdom finds itself to redefine small territorial gains to the detriment of Poland

Oof, I hadn't considered that. Yeah, the Poles are definitely a lot more likely to be dominated by their neighbors to the west TTL, which could just as well mean the influence of the Holy Roman Emperor extends further east.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Agree France remains divided for the near term. The question is how long does that last? How long could a divided France persist? Would one side or the other eventually triumph? Would we eventually get a unified France that is either in union with England or a separate nation like OTL? Would a Plantagenet marry a Capet for just such a purpose?

Poles, yeah, for the near and likely middle term basically a client state of the HRE.

Hungarians, plausible check on HRE expansion into the Balkans, sounds like. Could play middle man between the Empires.

On the ERE, another thread suggested that Crusaders capturing Iconium could "forever cripple" the Seljuks. At a minimum, it curbs their expansion and gives C-town, Armenia, and Acre breathing space. A canny HRE could sponsor a Crusade to do just this, which secures the land approaches to the Crusader States and weakens the Turks without giving back all of Anatolia (and thus all that wealth) to their Frenemy. This meets HRE strategic goals without further strengthening their chief regional rival for the Silk Road trade and the heritage of Rome.

 

[kasumigenx]

Agree France remains divided for the near term. The question is how long does that last? How long could a divided France persist? Would one side or the other eventually triumph? Would we eventually get a unified France that is either in union with England or a separate nation like OTL? Would a Plantagenet marry a Capet for just such a purpose?

The match between Eleanor of Brittany and Louis VIII.