WI Frederick Barbarossa doesn’t drown (2023 ed)

[John Fredrick Parker]

Agree France remains divided for the near term. The question is how long does that last? How long could a divided France persist? Would one side or the other eventually triumph? Would we eventually get a unified France that is either in union with England or a separate nation like OTL? Would a Plantagenet marry a Capet for just such a purpose?

The match between Eleanor of Brittany and Louis VIII.

Is the idea that Arthur succeeds Richard TTL, and becomes the Capetian King's brother-in-law? I mean sure, that's one way of setting something up. I would prefer seeing a male-line descended Plantagenet marry the daughter of a Capetian king, and then have their son make a claim to the French throne a la OTL-Edward-III, though at this point of particulars we're getting into another thread I started.

Hungarians, plausible check on HRE expansion into the Balkans, sounds like. Could play middle man between the Empires.

Could be; though I imagine the Mongol raids are still going to happen, which won't do much to help there.

 

[kasumigenx]

Is the idea that Arthur succeeds Richard TTL, and becomes the Capetian King's brother-in-law? I mean sure, that's one way of setting something up. I would prefer seeing a male-line descended Plantagenet marry the daughter of a Capetian king, and then have their son make a claim to the French throne a la OTL-Edward-III, though at this point of particulars we're getting into another thread I started.

Could be; though I imagine the Mongol raids are still going to happen, which won't do much to help there.

In reverse you can have Philip II die in the crusades and have the Blois clan weakened as IOTL.

 

[Andristan]

I would argue that Freddy already defeated the Sultan of Rum and took Iconium thus it could be handed over to the Byzantines after a Successful 3rd Crusade, which would help the ERE consolidate Anatolia.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

In reverse you can have Philip II die in the crusades and have the Blois clan weakened as IOTL.

Oh man that’s right, having Phillip Augustus die young would absolutely mess things up in France; his heir was only a few years old at this point, and I can absolutely see Champagne and Blois fighting over their late uncle’s lands and influence. And if Richard decides to go on and marry Alys TTL, he’d have a claim as well (less “legitimate” than Champagne or Blois perhaps, but backed up with more resources).

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Wrt France & England, I guess you have three choices: 1) France repels the Angevins per OTL, 2) the Angevins absorb/merge with the French (one-state), or 3) they remain divided (multi-state).

1) and especially 2) lead to a notable rival to the HRE, one which could hypothetically rally (or at least influence) surrounding states (the "ring of rivals" I mentioned in my first post). In particular, a united Anglo-French Crown, however you get there, would be the only state with a real chance at rivalling or opposing HRE hegemony, a power on both land and sea, which from a story standpoint (were someone to make a TL) seems the most interesting to me. 3) leads you more towards the "Middle Kingdom" HRE Hegemon approach, as does a united but relatively weak France. Such chaos increases the HRE's likelihood of imposing hegemony and possibly biting out chunks of Flanders and the like, potentially with an aim for outright annexation When God Wills. And if I'm the HRE and a devious bastard (and I suspect you don't become HRE without some level of devious bastardry, though an idealist dreamer could certainly take the throne at some point) I'd support the Angevins, not enough to seize Paris, but enough to not lose, and thus keep France divided. Of course, needless to say it's more complicated than that, and I'm sure there's a host of dynastic rivalry issues that limit or prevent such (for lack of a less anachronistic word) "Realpolitik" thinking. Certainly too much overt HRE meddling might ultimately backfire leading to 1), of course. Lots of potential drama in how you get there.

Could be; though I imagine the Mongol raids are still going to happen, which won't do much to help there.

Yes, definitely going to be busy in the 13th C. Here's the opportunity for HRE knights to assist, setting up that "clash on the Pontic Steppes" I imagined.

 

[Nuraghe]

Wrt France & England, I guess you have three choices: 1) France repels the Angevins per OTL, 2) the Angevins absorb/merge with the French (one-state), or 3) they remain divided (multi-state).

1) and especially 2) lead to a notable rival to the HRE, one which could hypothetically rally (or at least influence) surrounding states (the "ring of rivals" I mentioned in my first post). In particular, a united Anglo-French Crown, however you get there, would be the only state with a real chance at rivalling or opposing HRE hegemony, a power on both land and sea, which from a story standpoint (were someone to make a TL) seems the most interesting to me. 3) leads you more towards the "Middle Kingdom" HRE Hegemon approach, as does a united but relatively weak France. Such chaos increases the HRE's likelihood of imposing hegemony and possibly biting out chunks of Flanders and the like, potentially with an aim for outright annexation When God Wills. And if I'm the HRE and a devious bastard (and I suspect you don't become HRE without some level of devious bastardry, though an idealist dreamer could certainly take the throne at some point) I'd support the Angevins, not enough to seize Paris, but enough to not lose, and thus keep France divided. Of course, needless to say it's more complicated than that, and I'm sure there's a host of dynastic rivalry issues that limit or prevent such (for lack of a less anachronistic word) "Realpolitik" thinking. Certainly too much overt HRE meddling might ultimately backfire leading to 1), of course. Lots of potential drama in how you get there.


Yes, definitely going to be busy in the 13th C. Here's the opportunity for HRE knights to assist, setting up that "clash on the Pontic Steppes" I imagined.

In reality even in a scenario that sees France end up in the hands of the Plantagenets, I doubt that it could compete in the long term with HRE, it certainly can obtain some occasional victories ( probably in purely land combat ), but certainly not a prolonged conflict, especially considering that the empire can dispose of the immense wealth of the Italian cities ( without considering their war capacity ) together with the German and Burgundian possessions, and let's not talk about the navy ( a comparison clearly in favor of the HRE, given that it would find itself unifying the capabilities and The experience of Otl Pisa and Genoa, with the addition of the Sicilian fleet and the Hansa ) these simple factors make me think that it would be a very unequal conflict

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

And if I'm the HRE and a devious bastard (and I suspect you don't become HRE without some level of devious bastardry, though an idealist dreamer could certainly take the throne at some point) I'd support the Angevins, not enough to seize Paris, but enough to not lose, and thus keep France divided. Of course, needless to say it's more complicated than that, and I'm sure there's a host of dynastic rivalry issues that limit or prevent such (for lack of a less anachronistic word) "Realpolitik" thinking. Certainly too much overt HRE meddling might ultimately backfire leading to 1), of course. Lots of potential drama in how you get there.

In reality even in a scenario that sees France end up in the hands of the Plantagenets, I doubt that it could compete in the long term with HRE, it certainly can obtain some occasional victories ( probably in purely land combat ), but certainly not a prolonged conflict, especially considering that the empire can dispose of the immense wealth of the Italian cities ( without considering their war capacity ) together with the German and Burgundian possessions, and let's not talk about the navy ( a comparison clearly in favor of the HRE, given that it would find itself unifying the capabilities and The experience of Otl Pisa and Genoa, with the addition of the Sicilian fleet and the Hansa ) these simple factors make me think that it would be a very unequal conflict

It’s also worth recalling that the HRE did, in fact, support the Angevins OTL (eg at the Battle of Bouvines).

 

[Geekhis Khan]

In reality even in a scenario that sees France end up in the hands of the Plantagenets, I doubt that it could compete in the long term with HRE, it certainly can obtain some occasional victories ( probably in purely land combat ), but certainly not a prolonged conflict, especially considering that the empire can dispose of the immense wealth of the Italian cities ( without considering their war capacity ) together with the German and Burgundian possessions, and let's not talk about the navy ( a comparison clearly in favor of the HRE, given that it would find itself unifying the capabilities and The experience of Otl Pisa and Genoa, with the addition of the Sicilian fleet and the Hansa ) these simple factors make me think that it would be a very unequal conflict

Oh, fully agree, actually. I see a unified Angevin as what we now call a "near peer" rather than a "true peer". AE wouldn't often go toe-to-toe in total war with the HRE, but more compete obliquely and angle for cheap gains when the HRE is distracted, or try to build coalitions to check the HRE's obvious hegemonic intent. Or do you assume they're doomed to Tributary status or even eventually annexed into the HRE?

Also, tracking your separate Romanitas discussion with great interest. I've certainly never been one to question the Romanitas of the ERE/BE, who can at least claim uninterrupted continuity with the OG RE, and always acknowledged the criticality of Roman identity in Western Europe and even here in the US, and know fully why the HRE assumed the title and heritage that it did. The TL that's evolving here sets up some interesting ongoing competition for the "Heritage of Rome" going forward that makes the relations between the HRE and ERE "Frenemies" quite interesting for me. Eagerly awaiting more!

Edit: FWIW I just discovered that the German equivalent for "Frenemy" is "Freundfeind". Essentially the same!

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I doubt an Anglo-French kingdom would last a super long time. It probably gets split between sons at some point. It's not impossible, but it's more likely than not it gets split imo.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Why is that? England and France didn’t divide their possessions among heirs OTL, so why should they TTL?

Idk, I know a lot more about the HRE than I do about France and England, so I'm more used to their inheritance practices ig.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Idk, I know a lot more about the HRE than I do about France and England, so I'm more used to their inheritance practices ig.

I can tell you the Plantagenets (and the Capetians for that matter) had long since adopted the habit of keeping their realms united via primogeniture by this point in history, so simply being split up between sons doesn't seem to likely imo.

 

[Nuraghe]

Oh, fully agree, actually. I see a unified Angevin as what we now call a "near peer" rather than a "true peer". AE wouldn't often go toe-to-toe in total war with the HRE, but more compete obliquely and angle for cheap gains when the HRE is distracted, or try to build coalitions to check the HRE's obvious hegemonic intent. Or do you assume they're doomed to Tributary status or even eventually annexed into the HRE?

Also, tracking your separate Romanitas discussion with great interest. I've certainly never been one to question the Romanitas of the ERE/BE, who can at least claim uninterrupted continuity with the OG RE, and always acknowledged the criticality of Roman identity in Western Europe and even here in the US, and know fully why the HRE assumed the title and heritage that it did. The TL that's evolving here sets up some interesting ongoing competition for the "Heritage of Rome" going forward that makes the relations between the HRE and ERE "Frenemies" quite interesting for me. Eagerly awaiting more!

Edit: FWIW I just discovered that the German equivalent for "Frenemy" is "Freundfeind". Essentially the same!

I don't think we'll see the Angevin end up being annexed by the empire, but making an oath of vassalage or tributary payment every now and then (especially after a military defeat) is certainly likely, rather the regions that actually risk being subject to ambition expansionist of the HRE are French Flanders and possibly Languedoc and the Duchy of Burgundy ( obviously I am not considering the Polish regions on the eastern border, but only those strictly affected by a possible Angevin - Imperial conflict )


p.s

I advise you to reread my last comment in the romanitas discussion, because it has been massively updated

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I can tell you the Plantagenets (and the Capetians for that matter) had long since adopted the habit of keeping their realms united via primogeniture by this point in history, so simply being split up between sons doesn't seem to likely imo.

Fair enough. It's always possible for them to split via civil war, although that may or may not be permanent.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Fair enough. It's always possible for them to split via civil war, although that may or may not be permanent.

I’d say the gist of it is that TTL is likely to eventually get a sort of region/“national”-identity that encompasses OTL France and the British Isles (and possibly also Iberia), similar to how the (post-Ottonian) Holy Roman Empire has OTL become the basis for the idea of “land of the Germans” and “Central Europe”. Put another way, TTL isn’t likely to get “England” and “France” as separate “nations”, much less two with a rivalry.

And note how I’ve been putting “nation” in quotation marks -- since obviously the evolution of what OTL eventually became “nationalism” and the “nation-state” is going to be very different TTL.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I’d say the gist of it is that TTL is likely to eventually get a sort of region/“national”-identity that encompasses OTL France and the British Isles (and possibly also Iberia), similar to how the (post-Ottonian) Holy Roman Empire has OTL become the basis for the idea of “land of the Germans” and “Central Europe”. Put another way, TTL isn’t likely to get “England” and “France” as separate “nations”, much less two with a rivalry.

And note how I’ve been putting “nation” in quotation marks -- since obviously the evolution of what OTL eventually became “nationalism” and the “nation-state” is going to be very different TTL.

That sounds plausible. It'd be quite a formidable power, and one that could rival the Empire.

Speaking on the Byzantine side of things, I see a few options for them. Prior to 1204, the state was already starting to fragment, or at least was heading in that direction. If the Angelos dynasty continues for too much longer or their removal goes wrong, the Empire might just disintegrate. On the other hand, if we get a competent dynasty on the throne, like say the Laskarids, the Empire could potentially undergo yet another revival. Does anyone know any PoDs that could lead to the Laskarids taking the throne without the sack of Constantinople? And how would a successful Third Crusade affect the Empire, aside from the obvious lack of a Fourth Crusade?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Speaking on the Byzantine side of things, I see a few options for them. Prior to 1204, the state was already starting to fragment, or at least was heading in that direction. If the Angelos dynasty continues for too much longer or their removal goes wrong, the Empire might just disintegrate. On the other hand, if we get a competent dynasty on the throne, like say the Laskarids, the Empire could potentially undergo yet another revival. Does anyone know any PoDs that could lead to the Laskarids taking the throne without the sack of Constantinople?

I recall a “Constantinople doesn’t fall in Fourth Crusade” conversation a while back, and we came up with a scenario where the Laskarids take over:

OK, so we've got the start of our rough TL here -- sometime after the marriage of Theodore Laskaris to the daughter of Alexios III in 1199 (so 1200-02), the Emperor trips and falls down the stairs, cracking his skull and dying. After a brief power struggle, the husband of the late emperor's second daughter emerges victorious, and is (presumably) crowned Theodore I.

General idea is that Theodore I himself is mostly busy helping the empire recover, but that more ambitious projects (like retaking parts of Anatolia) are in the cards for later emperors who can build off this work. Then, of course, the Mongols arriving opens up new opportunities on top of that.

And how would a successful Third Crusade affect the Empire, aside from the obvious lack of a Fourth Crusade?

Ow shorter term effects, I’m not as sure of here.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

General idea is that Theodore I himself is mostly busy helping the empire recover, but that more ambitious projects (like retaking parts of Anatolia) are in the cards for later emperors who can build off this work. Then, of course, the Mongols arriving opens up new opportunities on top of that.

Yeah, he has a lot to do, from fixing the bureaucracy to rebuilding the navy to strengthening the Empire's position relative to the Italians, and more besides. If Barbarossa takes Iconium, would he hand it back to the Empire?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If Barbarossa takes Iconium, would he hand it back to the Empire?

Well, given it’s inland position it doesn’t seem to make much sense to try to keep it; if he doesn’t give it to the Byzantines, he’d give it to Cilicia. Just to be clear -- do we know that Barbarossa was intending to besiege Iconium?

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Well, given it’s inland position it doesn’t seem to make much sense to try to keep it; if he doesn’t give it to the Byzantines, he’d give it to Cilicia. Just to be clear -- do we know that Barbarossa was intending to besiege Iconium?

I'm not sure, I've just heard that from others.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

So we briefly touched on earlier the relational power between the Papacy and the Emperor TTL, but I think it’s worth looking at now - - in the kind of geopolitical context we’ve been talking about, how is the papacy likely to develop in the 13th Century? By the time we get to the early years of the 14th Century, I’d say, if nothing else, it’s pretty unlikely we’d see a relocation to Avignon. So depending on how we answer this question, and assuming we still get the natural disasters of the 14th Century (the 1315 Famine, the Black Death in 1347, etc) - - what does this mean for the evolution of Western Christendom during this timeframe?