WI: Emperor Nymphidius Sabinus

Mort the Reaper

Nymphidius Sabinus was a Praetorian prefect who played a crucial role in the downfall of Emperor Nero by persuading the Praetorian Guard to desert him. Between Nero's death and Galba's arrival in Rome, he tried to take the throne for himself. Unfortunately for him, nobody took his claim seriously and he was killed by his own subordinates.

But what if he had successfully become emperor, at least for a short time?
 

Merrick

This is a fun one. By the time Sabinus made his play OTL, Nero was dead, the Senate had proclaimed Galba as emperor and Galba was on his way to Rome with an army. But if he manages to get his Praetorians to back him, he might be able to hold Rome against Galba - Galba wasn't popular in the city and he has only one legion with him. But Sabinus will struggle for support - he is a traitor to both Nero and Galba and has zero legitimacy. He's also lowborn, which means the Senate would hate him even if they hadn't already declared for Galba.

And sitting up in Germania are the Rhine legions, who have just put down Vindex's rebellion and proclaimed their own commander, Verginius Rufus, as emperor. OTL he refused - and refused again after Galba's death, at which point his legions went over to Vitellius. Does he still refuse if Rome is held by Sabinus? And if so, does he sit on his hands as OTL or march to Galba's aid?

I can see Galba desperately trying to take Rome before Verginius turns up and potentially supplants him, while Sabinus desperately tries to present himself as the heir of Nero (yes, he betrayed the man to his death, but what else can he do?) and all the other factions watch with interest. If Sabinus defeats Galba, the Rhine legions probably march on Rome (under Verginius or someone) and we get a re-run of OTL with Sabinus in Otho's seat. If Galba wins he might try to placate the legions by adopting Verginius as his heir (in which case Vespasian likely stays loyal, Otho is never heard of and we get a completely different line of Emperors) but more likely he's stubborn enough to try and get rid of him, which will almost certainly result in the Rhine legions revolting as OTL.
 

Kellan Sullivan

redjirachi said:
Is there any evidence suggesting he was Caligula's bastard son?
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ISTR one historian saying that it doesn't MATTER what we NOW know to be true, if its believed by the person in question, and enough other people believed it to be true, it COULD come to be accepted as fact.
 

Night Gaul

Mort the Reaper said:
Who's Dovahhatty?
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He's a YouTuber with a web animation series called The Unbiased History of Rome. Despite the name, it's deliberately (and comedically) biased towards both Rome as a whole and some individuals associated with it, not to mention filled to the brim with dark and/or politically incorrect humor.

To get back on topic, I remember reading a theory that "precedent-breaking" Roman emperors tended to die early, but ended up "legitimizing" an emperor having their precedent-breaking traits. Should Nymphidius have succeeded in declaring himself emperor, I could see future Praetorian Guard officers becoming emperor, since he set a precedent for it.
 
wcv215

wcv215

Merrick said:
If Galba wins he might try to placate the legions by adopting Verginius as his heir (in which case Vespasian likely stays loyal, Otho is never heard of and we get a completely different line of Emperors) but more likely he's stubborn enough to try and get rid of him, which will almost certainly result in the Rhine legions revolting as OTL.
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Yeah, there’s no chance in hell Galba agrees to that. The Praetorians will murder him regardless. And Vespasian will probably be forced to take his shot even IF Galba stays on the throne. He was highly suspicious of Galba’s intentions toward him, and the Eastern legions and officials wanted him in the ring. IMO if Galba dodges every other trap no one laid for him but he kept walking into anyway he’d eventually try to get Vespasian out of the way, and then boom the East is in revolt and the Danube legions are marching on Italy.
 

Merrick

wcv215 said:
Yeah, there’s no chance in hell Galba agrees to that. The Praetorians will murder him regardless.
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Well, in that scenario we're assuming Galba has stormed Rome and and removed Sabinus by force, so the Praetorians are out of the picture(1) and Galba is in Rome with his loyal troops. Still, the man had a real talent for losing friends and alienating people, so it's about even money whether he gets assassinated before one out of the Rhine, Danube or Eastern armies turns up to remove him. I've no idea which way the Danube legions would jump in this scenario, though. OTL they seem to have been loyal to Nero, then at least some of them declared for Otho, then after Otho's defeat Antoninus Primus (who was Galba's legate in Pannonnia) led them over to Vespasian and effectively won the war for him before his own army had even turned up. Presumably if Galba is alive Primus doesn't go over to Vespasian, but does he have the clout to get the Danube army to march on Italy in support of Galba?

(1) Unless (shades of OTL) rather than a battle Otho or someone simply bribed the the Praetorians out from under Sabinus and then Galba didn't deliver on the bribe...
 

Merrick

My take on everything Sabinus did after Nero's death - from declaring himself Emperor to claiming to be Caligula's son to trying to claim Nero's legacy by marrying his widower (it's complicated) - is that it was a pure desperation shot once realised that Galba was likely to get rid of him as soon as he'd secured Rome.
Suppose Sabinus, in addition to having the loyalty of the Praetorians, had a bit more foresight and realised earlier that the was no future for him in supporting Galba. So instead of initially declaring for Galba (as OTL) he simply has the Praetorians kill Nero and proclaim him Emperor.

So:
- Sabinus controls Rome with the Praetorians and has proclaimed himself Emperor
- Galba is in Spain, and his troops have just proclaimed him Emperor
- Verginius Rufus is at Vesontio (Besancon) and his troops have just proclaimed him Emperor
- The Senate is in a blind panic, because they don't want to legitimise succession by assassination but Sabinus and his Praetorians are right there...
- Otho is in Rome and no doubt plotting furiously
- Vespasian probably hasn't heard of Nero's death yet but will be very interested when he does
and I have no idea how the Danube army will take all this.

Night Gaul said:
To get back on topic, I remember reading a theory that "precedent-breaking" Roman emperors tended to die early, but ended up "legitimizing" an emperor having their precedent-breaking traits. Should Nymphidius have succeeded in declaring himself emperor, I could see future Praetorian Guard officers becoming emperor, since he set a precedent for it.
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Well. if it's regarded a precedent, I can see the post of Praetorian prefect being abolished and future Emperors commanding the Guard themselves, or making their heirs Prefect, or dividing the Guard between multiple trusted subordinates. Giving anyone even potentially disloyal a straight shot at the purple would be way too risky. Something of the sort seems to have happened OTL after the Severans. Of course, if a tradition appeared by which the post of Praetorian Prefect was always given to the Emperor's chosen heir, it might act to stabilise the Empire somewhat.

OTL, the Year of Four Emperors created the precedent that an Emperor could be created outside Rome, by acclamation of the soldiers. This precedent then went into abeyance for the next hundred and some years, until it reappeared in the Year of Five Emperors...
 

Mort the Reaper

Merrick said:
My take on everything Sabinus did after Nero's death - from declaring himself Emperor to claiming to be Caligula's son to trying to claim Nero's legacy by marrying his widower (it's complicated) - is that it was a pure desperation shot once realised that Galba was likely to get rid of him as soon as he'd secured Rome.
Suppose Sabinus, in addition to having the loyalty of the Praetorians, had a bit more foresight and realised earlier that the was no future for him in supporting Galba. So instead of initially declaring for Galba (as OTL) he simply has the Praetorians kill Nero and proclaim him Emperor.

So:
- Sabinus controls Rome with the Praetorians and has proclaimed himself Emperor
- Galba is in Spain, and his troops have just proclaimed him Emperor
- Verginius Rufus is at Vesontio (Besancon) and his troops have just proclaimed him Emperor
- The Senate is in a blind panic, because they don't want to legitimise succession by assassination but Sabinus and his Praetorians are right there...
- Otho is in Rome and no doubt plotting furiously
- Vespasian probably hasn't heard of Nero's death yet but will be very interested when he does
and I have no idea how the Danube army will take all this.
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Sounds like a recipe for an even bigger fustercluck than OTL.
 

Night Gaul

Merrick said:
My take on everything Sabinus did after Nero's death - from declaring himself Emperor to claiming to be Caligula's son to trying to claim Nero's legacy by marrying his widower (it's complicated) - is that it was a pure desperation shot once realised that Galba was likely to get rid of him as soon as he'd secured Rome.
Suppose Sabinus, in addition to having the loyalty of the Praetorians, had a bit more foresight and realised earlier that the was no future for him in supporting Galba. So instead of initially declaring for Galba (as OTL) he simply has the Praetorians kill Nero and proclaim him Emperor.

So:
- Sabinus controls Rome with the Praetorians and has proclaimed himself Emperor
- Galba is in Spain, and his troops have just proclaimed him Emperor
- Verginius Rufus is at Vesontio (Besancon) and his troops have just proclaimed him Emperor
- The Senate is in a blind panic, because they don't want to legitimise succession by assassination but Sabinus and his Praetorians are right there...
- Otho is in Rome and no doubt plotting furiously
- Vespasian probably hasn't heard of Nero's death yet but will be very interested when he does
and I have no idea how the Danube army will take all this.
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Where does Vitellius fit in to this scenario?
 

Merrick

Night Gaul said:
Where does Vitellius fit in to this scenario?
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Unclear. Believe it or not he was Galba's appointee as Governor of Lower Germany and commander of the Rhine Army (replacing Verginius Rufus). So in a situation where Galba hasn't got control of Rome or been recognised by the Senate, Vitellius is currently out of a job and presumably somewhere around Rome (he doesn't seem to have been in Spain with Galba). Likewise Antoninus Primus isn't with the Danube Army - he was another of Galba's appointees.

And it turns out I was wrong about Otho. I thought he was in Rome as part of Nero's court, but it turns out he was governor of Lusitania, he supported Galba's initial revolt and accompanied him on his march on Rome. So in this scenario he'd be with Galba in Spain (and probably plotting regardless).
 

Mort the Reaper

Night Gaul said:
To get back on topic, I remember reading a theory that "precedent-breaking" Roman emperors tended to die early, but ended up "legitimizing" an emperor having their precedent-breaking traits. Should Nymphidius have succeeded in declaring himself emperor, I could see future Praetorian Guard officers becoming emperor, since he set a precedent for it.
Click to expand...

I think this might be what you're talking about:

Atamolos said:
It's interesting to note that these precedent-breaking emperors generally do not last for very long. Caligula was the first emperor with no military experience, Galba was the first non-Julio-Claudian emperor, Otho was the first emperor to have openly murdered his predecessor, Nerva was the first emperor proclaimed by the senate, Didius Julians was the first emperor to have bribed his way to the office, Maximinus Thrax was the first emperor to have begun his career as a common soldier, and there are several other examples. Arguably, Julius Caesar falls into this trend exactly. He was the first Roman leader to seize absolute power in something approaching an emperorship, and he wound up dead. The notable exceptions to this are Trajan (first non-Italian emperor) and Constantine (first non-pagan emperor), but Macrinus fits this precedent-breaking trend (i.e. he was the first praetorian prefect to become emperor). It is interesting to note that the next praetorian prefect to do so (Philip the Arab), lasted for significantly longer in office despite that he reigned during a much more chaotic time period. This, I believe, is because the office of Roman emperor was largely improvised, and the difficulty with sourcing one's legitimacy from outside the traditional power base of Roman emperors (i.e. the senate and Italy) tended to encourage backlash, which resulted in their assassinations. Ironically, the best way to see Macrinus last longer would be to have his colleague, Marcus Adventus, or one of their predecessors (Plautianus comes to mind) attempt to seize power before him, thus proactively legitimizing his own reign as a former praetorian prefect.
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Mort the Reaper

Merrick said:
Unclear. Believe it or not he was Galba's appointee as Governor of Lower Germany and commander of the Rhine Army (replacing Verginius Rufus). So in a situation where Galba hasn't got control of Rome or been recognised by the Senate, Vitellius is currently out of a job and presumably somewhere around Rome (he doesn't seem to have been in Spain with Galba). Likewise Antoninus Primus isn't with the Danube Army - he was another of Galba's appointees.

And it turns out I was wrong about Otho. I thought he was in Rome as part of Nero's court, but it turns out he was governor of Lusitania, he supported Galba's initial revolt and accompanied him on his march on Rome. So in this scenario he'd be with Galba in Spain (and probably plotting regardless).
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What would Alienus and Fabius Valens do in this scenario? They were the ones who had Vitellius proclaimed emperor, after all.
 

Merrick

Mort the Reaper said:
What would Alienus and Fabius Valens do in this scenario? They were the ones who had Vitellius proclaimed emperor, after all.
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As far as I can tell, Aulus Caecina Alienus is with Galba and Otho - he had been a quaestor in Spain and it was Galba who appointed him to a legion command in Germany. Fabius Valens is on the Rhine with his legion. He was one of Nero's loyalists and never supported Galba. (The timeline here is confused, because Valens and his legion are supposed to have refused to recognise Galba as Emperor and declared for Vitellius, but this happened in the winter of 68-9, by which time Galba had already been Emperor for six months and would be assassinated shortly afterwards.)

Of the two, I'd say Flavius Valens will oppose both Galba (as OTL) and Sabinus (who killed Nero). That leaves him looking for another candidate - if Verginius Rufus, shows an interest, I'd expect Valens to support him.
Caecina Alienus was more of a chancer - OTL he backed Galba and got a legion out of it, then when he was prosecuted for corruption he went over to Vitellius. Here, he'll likely go to the highest bidder, but without troops under his command, he's a minor player.

Oh, and if you want another oar in the pot, if it's the summer of 68, then Lucius Clodius Macer, commanding the garrison in Africa is also in revolt against Nero - nominally in alliance with Galba, but Galba suspected he was building up his own forces and had him murdered in October.
 
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