WI: Different Seven Years War

[Fehérvári]

Austria and Russia crushes Prussia, Silesia is regained and East Prussia is ceded to Russia. Russia exchanges East Prussia to Courland (and maybe Polish Livonia) with the PLC.

Meanwhile France loses it's power in India as OTL, but Britain gives back the French posessions in America in exchange for France not acquiring the Austrian Netherlands.

The war ends around the same as OTL more or less.

Given these circumstances how could latter events play out?

 

[ETGalaxy]

The French Revolution would be really interesting. If New France still existed perhaps the monarchy could flee to the colony and hide there until the fall of Napoleon. Maybe this means that the USA never acquires Louisiana so if Manifest Destiny still exists America either needs to colonize or invade parts of the New World south of it, like Cuba.

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

The French Revolution would be really interesting. If New France still existed perhaps the monarchy could flee to the colony and hide there until the fall of Napoleon. Maybe this means that the USA never acquires Louisiana so if Manifest Destiny still exists America either needs to colonize or invade parts of the New World south of it, like Cuba.

It would be hard for the French royal family to desert their country just because some hotheads want they're heads, when there is still some support for the monarchy in the countryside and, most importantly, complete support in Europe. For instance, during the English Civil War the royal family didn't left England and the only instance in which an European royal family left for they're colonies was the Portuguese one during the Peninsular War, so not during an internal insurgence.

Austria and Russia crushes Prussia, Silesia is regained and East Prussia is ceded to Russia. Russia exchanges East Prussia to Courland (and maybe Polish Livonia) with the PLC.

Meanwhile France loses it's power in India as OTL, but Britain gives back the French posessions in America in exchange for France not acquiring the Austrian Netherlands.

The war ends around the same as OTL more or less.

Given these circumstances how could latter events play out?

Why would the Russians feel the need to make a land deal with the Poles, when, after the War of Polish Succesion, they basically became a Russo-Austrian puppet state? Also, would the British really be willing to let the French remain in control of the strategically important St. Lawrence and Mississippi rivers? I could only see this happening if the British lost the French and Indian War.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Why would the Russians feel the need to make a land deal with the Poles, when, after the War of Polish Succesion, they basically became a Russo-Austrian puppet state? .

Yeah - the First Partition of Poland is the only partition of Poland and probably comes early. Rationale is to cement the Austro-Russian relationship and avoid the possibility of an unnecessary war

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

Yeah - the First Partition of Poland is the only partition of Poland and probably comes early. Rationale is to cement the Austro-Russian relationship and avoid the possibility of an unnecessary war

I think a return of Silesia to Austria would be enough to cement it's relation with Russia. Also, there could still be 3 Partitions of Poland, only with Russia gaining the most of it. After that it's hard to predict as a continued French America butterflies away the American and French Revolutions and the Napoleonic Wars.

 

[Cornelis]

It would be hard for the French royal family to desert their country just because some hotheads want they're heads, when there is still some support for the monarchy in the countryside and, most importantly, complete support in Europe. For instance, during the English Civil War the royal family didn't left England and the only instance in which an European royal family left for they're colonies was the Portuguese one during the Peninsular War, so not during an internal insurgence.

...Except it is not true at all.

King Charles II fled England in 1651. King Louis XVI tried to flee France in 1791. Stadthouder William V fled Holland in 1795.

While I do not think there would be a flight-to-colonies in 1791, flight of Kings in front of Revolutions is very well documented in Europe.

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

...Except it is not true at all.

King Charles II fled England in 1651. King Louis XVI tried to flee France in 1791. Stadthouder William V fled Holland in 1795.

While I do not think there would be a flight-to-colonies in 1791, flight of Kings in front of Revolutions is very well documented in Europe.

You're right. I wanted to say that Louis XVI wouldn't exile himself across the Atlantic as long as he had some internal and all the external support, as Charles II didn't at the end of the English Civil War. I looked it up and Louis XVI fled Paris to try to mount a counter-revolution in north-eastern France with foreign help and both Charles II and William V fled to European countries.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Wait, would there even be a French Revilution TTL? I have to imagine their finances would be in much better shape with a more intact colonial empire and likeky no ARW.

 

[Fehérvári]

Bump.

Given the sceniario, it's hard to imagine how would a Polish partition look like. Without the Prussians, there wouldn't be too much reason to partition it in the first place. In my opinion, a break between the Habsburg Empire and Russia would be the case instead. Both would try to get the PLC into their sphere. Maybe in a stalemate situation, with slight Habsburg advance, the PLC could be split in. The Habsburgs become Kings of Poland, inwhich they might integrate East Prussia, or they detach Royal Prussia from Poland and they create yet another kingdom for themselves from united Prussia. The Russian Tsars become Grand Dukes of Lithuania. The Cossack Hetmanate would go to the Tsars as well, probably as a different entity, but maybe as part of either Lithuania or Russia.

Somethin like this by 1780?
https://imgur.com/x2AUT2r

Also how do I properly embed imgur images?

 

[Archduke]

Bump.

Given the sceniario, it's hard to imagine how would a Polish partition look like. Without the Prussians, there wouldn't be too much reason to partition it in the first place. In my opinion, a break between the Habsburg Empire and Russia would be the case instead. Both would try to get the PLC into their sphere. Maybe in a stalemate situation, with slight Habsburg advance, the PLC could be split in. The Habsburgs become Kings of Poland, inwhich they might integrate East Prussia, or they detach Royal Prussia from Poland and they create yet another kingdom for themselves from united Prussia. The Russian Tsars become Grand Dukes of Lithuania. The Cossack Hetmanate would go to the Tsars as well, probably as a different entity, but maybe as part of either Lithuania or Russia.

Somethin like this by 1780?
https://imgur.com/x2AUT2r

Also how do I properly embed imgur images?

Why would the Austrians have a slight edge when Russia has been the dominant force in Polish politics for two decades, especially since Russia just gave the Poles Prussia, which has been a Polish dream for over a century at this point.

It is very unlikely we will see an organized partition similar to OTL. Russia had nearly created a satellite state in Poland-Lithuania at this point and had little reason to change its policy just yet, especially since they had unaccomplished territorial goals to the south, which would have come first. It is more likely that Russia using Poland as a buffer from Europe and its politics while it pursues territorial expansion to the south and east.

 

[Fehérvári]

Why would the Austrians have a slight edge when Russia has been the dominant force in Polish politics for two decades, especially since Russia just gave the Poles Prussia, which has been a Polish dream for over a century at this point.

No reason. I'm just biased toward the Habsburg Empire. Also every Polish election has the potential for drastic changes.

It is very unlikely we will see an organized partition similar to OTL. Russia had nearly created a satellite state in Poland-Lithuania at this point and had little reason to change its policy just yet, especially since they had unaccomplished territorial goals to the south, which would have come first. It is more likely that Russia using Poland as a buffer from Europe and its politics while it pursues territorial expansion to the south and east.

Yep, it's likely.

 

[Wendell]

Austria and Russia crushes Prussia, Silesia is regained and East Prussia is ceded to Russia. Russia exchanges East Prussia to Courland (and maybe Polish Livonia) with the PLC.

Meanwhile France loses it's power in India as OTL, but Britain gives back the French posessions in America in exchange for France not acquiring the Austrian Netherlands.

The war ends around the same as OTL more or less.

Given these circumstances how could latter events play out?

The British are getting a raw deal....

 

[Umbric Man]

The British will NOT give up its western claims below the Great Lakes nor Ile-Royal. It captured those rapidly and decisively starting from 1758 (Duquesne-now-Pittsburgh and Louisbourg) to 1760 (Detroit), and was a rare and happy Anglo-colonial combined effort.

If it's giving back anything, it's JUST French "Le Canada", which would be defined as *Upper and *Lower Canada, with France giving up claims to Rupert's Land and Ile-Royal. Ile-Royal (and *New Brunswick) would be annexed to Nova Scotia as in OTL with this expanded Nova Scotia opened up to New England Planters as in reality, and the western colony proposals of the 1760s would be taken far more seriously to contain both the pro-French Amerindians of the Ohio Valley (which would still have access to Le Canada) and to surround Le Canada itself with heavily populated Anglo colonies from Newfoundland and Nova Scotia to New Wales (*Ohio Valley) and Charlotina (western Great Lakes).