WI: Chongzhen Emperor accepts Li Zicheng's offer

In 1644, Li Zicheng made an offer to the Chongzhen Emperor would fight the Qing dynasty and eradicate all other rebels on behalf of the Ming, if the Ming dynasty would recognize Li Zicheng's control over his Shaanxi-Shanxi fief, pay him 1 million taels and confirm Li Zicheng's noble rank of Prince. Li Zicheng did not intend to overthrow the Ming Emperor or kill him. However, the Ming Emperor didn't accept the offer, and when Li entered Beijing, the Emperor killed his family, and committed suicide. Then the Qing was let in, and took over China.

But, what if instead of rejecting Li Zicheng's offer, the Chongzhen Emperor accepts the offer, and Li Zicheng was given his fief in Shaanxi-Shanxi, and payment. Then the Ming and Shun forces fight off the Qing Manchus.

Could the Ming survive? Or would this give the Ming a bit more time?
 

Kaze

Banned
It would only be buying some time for the Ming.

The blood would be in the water.

Zhang Xianzhong would be the major problem - he might continue the fight, it was in his personality to go for it even without Li Zicheng (and will likely have some defections from Li's forces to do so)

However the Shun would have time to do something with themselves - other than being a combination of peasant army / professional army. He will need to control his forces and take the negotiations to his "loyal" generals - in IRL he lost control of them when they started looting Beijing's rich households and rich tombs. The "1st Prince Shun" (The title I would give him) will need to bring some command structure to his men. They might have the breathing time to establish himself and his forces as a state within a state - fighting the Qing would give them the apparatus to do so. And to have Lady-General Gao Guiying (now, Princess Gao) give birth to the heir to the throne - a royal Prince always needs an heir

I would give the Ming would last long enough to the 2nd Shun Prince gets ideas of his own - probably to avenge his father's "all so convenient assassination?"

Historians will of course debate WHO killed 1st Shun Prince: Qing loyalist, Zhang Xianzhong (or one of the defectors from the Shun to Zhang), a random Ming court eunuch / minister that wanted to please his emperor and gets himself promoted for it, a disaffected formerly "loyal" General that was recently dismissed by Li Zicheng, Princess Gao to assure her son's immediate succession and fall of the Ming, or the Dali Lama.
 
In 1644, Li Zicheng made an offer to the Chongzhen Emperor would fight the Qing dynasty and eradicate all other rebels on behalf of the Ming, if the Ming dynasty would recognize Li Zicheng's control over his Shaanxi-Shanxi fief, pay him 1 million taels and confirm Li Zicheng's noble rank of Prince. Li Zicheng did not intend to overthrow the Ming Emperor or kill him.
Pretty sure that by 1644, when the Ming imperial court's direct control north of the Yangtze was severely limited to plainlands around Shuntian + Shandong and Hebei, this supposed offer was not a sincere one, nor would it be abided by the Shun court (which was established on January 1st of 1644). The source for this supposed offer was from a 19th century work by a lone court official who supposedly had access to classified Imperial documents, but it's not seen elsewhere. If we were to trust that it happened, many do believe the offer was done to humiliate Chongzhen, who had previously maintained a staunch stance of refusing to view the peasants as anything more than upstart rebels (previous negotiations involved giving money and having them stand down and return to peasant, but never becoming an independent fief with a rank of a prince, which would've been ludicrous to the Emperor who viewed them as mere peasants).

Also the Shun army's situation would not permit this offer to actually go through.
1) Li Zicheng had no reason to believe the Ming would survive any on-slaught by him, the last vestiges of a well-equipped army was still in Shanhai Pass, those in Datong and other Garrisons were not taken seriously by either the Shun or the Manchus. There's no reason to give up all of Henan/Hebei for just Shaanxi/Shanxi when the Ming no longer posed a serious enough threat. Plus Li Zicheng did not consider the Manchus a serious enough threat at that point, allowing Wu Sangui to be antagonized easily. The Shun army was still under the impression that their army was powerful enough to withstand any campaign by the Manchus - proven desperately wrong later.
2) None of Li Zicheng's generals would have allowed the offer to happen. They were at the gates of the Imperial city, and despite how ravaged it is, in their mind it's still rich beyond what they have seen. Their morale up to this point was simply supported by the idea that once they conqueror Beijing, their beloved general would firmly establish himself as the Son of Heaven and they would be richly rewarded (in both land and plunder). To have an almost 200,000 army retreat when they're one gate away from this happening would just be asking for a rebellion, especially when the rebels did not have the best track record in discipline. And as we can see, soon after conquering Beijing, the Shun army integrity rapidly disintegrated after 1) preoccupied in plundering the city and lost further motivation to fight 2) disillusioned when they did not receive land grants as promised as many of them were peasants who lost land 3) asked to retreat back West rapidly hence did not even have all the time to enjoy their plunder.

Also finally, the Ming did give many peasant leaders offers of surrender provided they return to their land of origin and returned as faithful peasants, but those like Li and Zhang repeatedly rebelled as soon as the money given by the imperial treasury ran out and the army had to leave to fight the Manchus.

Princess Gao to assure her son's immediate succession and fall of the Ming, or the Dali Lama.
Dali Lama?? Hopefully you're not serious.

And to have Lady-General Gao Guiying (now, Princess Gao) give birth to the heir to the throne - a royal Prince always needs an heir
It's suspected that Li Zicheng was rendered impotent at some point thru his military career, he had several wives and concubine but none were pregnant in his later years, especially the ones when he had ample time to lay low. He however, had his nephew and younger brother available as heir.
 

Kaze

Banned
Dali Lama?? Hopefully you're not serious.


It's suspected that Li Zicheng was rendered impotent at some point thru his military career, he had several wives and concubine but none were pregnant in his later years, especially the ones when he had ample time to lay low. He however, had his nephew and younger brother available as heir.

1. Dali Lama.

Then you have not read any Martial Arts Wuxia Fiction. The Dali Lama appears as a very minor villain in one of the less popular novels of Jin Yong and other lesser known authors. But as real world - the Dali Lama was nothing more than a rich colonial governor of the Ming, by sending an assassin to deal with Li (and avenge Li's sacking of the Shaolin Temple Monastery - which he did so in 1641, which led them quite defenseless and unprepared for the more famous Qing Dynasty sacking) would be a good way to suck up to the Ming and get some more nominal independence.

2. impotency due to militarism?

Then explain Cao-Cao = he had a longer military carrier, harder military carrier, and quite a few children.... and wrote some poems.

The reason why Lady-General Gao Guiying and Li did not have children is timing and location. Li sometimes divided his army into a left army and a right army with one leading and the other following. If one army got attacked the other army would come over the hill and support. Li did not trust his men as far as he could throw them - so he assigned his wife to the Left army and himself to the right army. So getting together in the same place at the same time when Lady-General Gao is ready to make babies is going to be difficult considering his military strategy. In layman terms : if your wife and concubines are 1 to 5 miles from you, sperm does not travel that far from you.

If anything it would be on the back of Lady General Gao = it has been observed in modern day army that women lose their periods during hard military training and high combat situations often going without the "monthly problems" for sometimes up to 6 to 9 months which means no ability to get pregnant. It usually takes them weeks to months for them to recover and with some time and rest they are able to return to the "monthly cycle", back on the "monthly cycle" - the women can and do get pregnant.

I would guess Lady General Gao and the other concubines would need months downtime with her husband in the same place and time - before the heir is ready. Until then, nephews and uncles will do as successors.
 
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Then you have not read any Martial Arts Wuxia Fiction. The Dali Lama appears as a very minor villain in one of the less popular novels of Jin Yong and other lesser known authors. But as real world - the Dali Lama was nothing more than a rich colonial governor of the Ming, by sending an assassin to deal with Li (and avenge Li's sacking of the Shaolin Temple Monastery - which he did so in 1641, which led them quite defenseless and unprepared for the more famous Qing Dynasty sacking) would be a good way to suck up to the Ming and get some more nominal independence.
Okay, first of all I don't think the Dali Lama would care about the Shao-ling, the differences between the sects are too great. It's like saying that the Catholic Pope would care if an Anglican church was razed to the ground by the natives. And I don't see why they would need to "suck up to the Ming and get some more nominal independence", they were already as independent as they could be by the 1640s.
Also if you understood Jin Yong and Wuxia Fiction you'd understand that they're historical fiction, we all know that Wei Xiaobao didn't actually have a sexual relationship with Tsarina Elizabeth as said in 鹿鼎记,
Then explain Cao-Cao = he had a longer military carrier, harder military carrier, and quite a few children.... and wrote some poems.
The reason why Lady-General Gao Guiying and Li did not have children is timing and location. Li sometimes divided his army into a left army and a right army with one leading and the other following. If one army got attacked the other army would come over the hill and support. Li did not trust his men as far as he could throw them - so he assigned his wife to the Left army and himself to the right army. So getting together in the same place at the same time when Lady-General Gao is ready to make babies is going to be difficult considering his military strategy. In layman terms : if your wife and concubines are 1 to 5 miles from you, sperm does not travel that far from you.
I find it odd that you'd try to refute point about Li's impotency by using someone unrelated 1400 years before him. All I said was he could be rendered impotent at some point thru his military career, meaning he could've been injured or encountered enough stress to induce impotency -> 宋高宗. If you'd want to prove your point you should find some evidence that during the time Li was with any woman, he managed to impregnate them. He had ample time between 1637 - 1639 when he was not on an active campaign in his power base to create more children, which he did not managed to do. It's well-known that Li Guo, Li Laiheng and Li Zijing (nephews + younger brother) were seen as potential successors because no one expected Li Zicheng to have any children.

Also I find it interesting you'd say Li did not trust his men that much, if anything Gao Yigong, Liu Zongming, Tian Jianxiu, Yuan Zongdi and a whole other bunch were proven loyal commanders that stuck with him during his toughest times, and were consistently sent out for independent campaigns far from where Li Zicheng was.
 
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Going back to this topic. If this offer was real, and the Ming Emperor accepts this offer, how would a combined Shun-Ming far against the forces of the Qing or even the Xi in Sichuan?

Also, how would this effect politics, with Li Zicheng dealing with the Ming Court, and sharing power for how long?
 
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