Butterflies only float so far, though. By that logic any form of prediction of what could happen is impossible. Any outcome is as reasonable as any other.
Well, frankly, to be anal, yes: after more than a few decades the exponential divergences will mean anything IS as reasonable and all IS speculative.
That said, I can willingly suspend disbelief up to a point. Several centuries is a wee bit beyond that point for me.
Also keep in mind that medieval Europe was a much less resource-intensive society than any society today. It was not a major importer or exporter except for minor luxury items enjoyed by the elite. It had almost no diplomatic presence beyond the Near East. Its loss would be noticed by the Islamic traders who made their money off the European elite, but once other trade networks are established (and they are early on in the book--a stronger presence in Africa and greater trade with the Chinese and Indians) they'll make their money elsewhere. The population is low so its impact is correspondingly low, and even though the croplands go wild and the domesticated animals go feral there's still no major change in their contribution to the equation.
Western Europe, Germany, Britain, yes, sure.
But Constantinople (specifically mentioned in the first chapters as depopulated by the plague), a major trade and travel hub with its land and sea trade networks all throughout the Med, into the ME, across the silk road...hard to isolate that. It's a Butterfly Superhighway!
If you've just wiped out C-town, yet Damascus gets off lightly, you need some serious butterfly nets in place. Instead the plague seemed to conveniently stop at White Christian territory, save for a few token places like Al Andalus. Had the plague really tore up Damascus and Baghdad and Egypt, etc., It'd hold up better AH-wise, IMO.
Though admittedly the goal of his novel was to explore the affects of Europe on the world, not to explore counterfactuals, so as a POD it works...and better from a literary standpoint than time-traveling Black Panthers with Bioweapons.
Based upon what empirical evidence? Homeostasis is homeostasis throughout the entire human species. Over a very long period of time, I could see this, with radically different outcome for human evolution among other things. But not over only a few hundred years.
Admittedly I'm not one of the "fanatics" I mentioned, nor an expert on biochemistry, so you'll have to ask those devout I about their underlying reasoning. But simple reasoning and just plain common sense you can address their point: millions of individual sperm cells, all distinct genetically, churning around. If Mom and Dad are delayed by even a minute then any one of those could logically do the deed. Change the ARW and Lighthorse Henry Lee and his wife might just have a girl. But even if "R.E. Lee" is born, you can't guarantee that he'll be the same genetically as OTL.
But for myself, I'm willing to suspend disbelief up to a point. RE Lee born into a No ARW TL? Sure, I'll play along. FDR? A little too much of a stretch for me.
Perhaps that one is a bit of a stretch, since Portugese and Dutch attempts at exploiting Japan helped create the impetus for the Tokugawa Shogunate to begin with (although Ieyasu himself was not the one who closed Japan; that was his grandson IIRC). But substitute the Moslems for the Europeans and you could get a similar (albeit not identical) outcome. Japan is isolated from much of the world except China until the 16th century. What happens in Europe doesn't matter squat to them.
More than a bit IMO. With Three Centuries, even if we completely discount the extreme butterfly theorists, the simple accumulation of small changes in day-to-day interactions of day-to-day people will start to affect things, and far faster than you might think when there are established trade networks across Asia. For example, Aziz in Damascus, who lost his lucrative trade route to Constantinople when the plague wiped out the city, now looks into caravans to the east. He doesn't marry that Egyptian trader's daughter like OTL, but instead marries that Mughal trader's daughter (immediate generational offspring changes). Plus there's the members of his caravan who now go east rather than west, affect the lives of those Hindu merchants they meet who in turn via third/fourth/fifth degrees affect merchants in Xiankang who affect people in China...in a couple of generations or less changes propagate to Japan, particularly since Japan was in no way totally isolated or cordoned off from China at this stage.
Now, overall historical trends may still arguably come to dominate, but things will start to vary quickly, including royal bloodlines. Overall China remains China, though the little changes may quickly add up if, say, a certain eunic is now fabulously wealthier than OTL due to the changed trade, meaning different factions take control TTL and bend the Emperor's ear towards different projects, different wives/concubines, support of different regions or families, etc. China culturally and overall politically in a hundred years is pretty much indistinguishable from OTL, but the changes will likely mean that a totally different Emperor (with different objectives) is on the throne, one perhaps better or worse than OTL. China may be better able to resist a barbarian assault that hurt the Empire OTL, but conversely may be worse off against an assault that failed OTL.
Japan, same: the Feudal States will still clash, though maybe a different region dominates, or maybe gets unified sooner or later than OTL under some Shogun. Oh, and I do believe I mentioned something about the possibility of "some" Great Shogun logically arising in YoR&S.
Just not Ieyasu.
A lesser author would not have been able to pull it off at all.
Fully agreed. It remains a great book and highly recommended. I enjoyed it for its writing and its observations on life and culture...even if the AH had some glaring holes that would never be accepted on the pre-1900 board if presented as a TL.
But then again, he's the published author and we're a bunch of internet dweebs, so last laugh is on us!
