What would it take for Mexico to go with the Zimmerman Telegram?

gladiator8085

A major factor in the Mexican dismissal of the alliance proposed by Germany in the Zimmerman telegram was that they had just recently completed the Mexican revolution. What would it take for them to not dismiss the Zimmerman telegram?

A. The Mexican revolution occurred a decade or two previously so as to give the new government time to consolidate.

B. The Mexican revolution never occurred at all. Would the existing government buy into the German proposal?
 

nbcman

Donor
It would take a complete and suicidal misappreciation of the relative military power of Mexico in comparison to the USA.
 
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Agra

gladiator8085 said:
A major factor in the Mexican dismissal of the alliance proposed by Germany in the Zimmerman telegram was that they had just recently completed the Mexican revolution. What would it take for them to not dismiss the Zimmerman telegram?

A. The Mexican revolution occurred a decade or two previously so as to give the new government time to consolidate.

B. The Mexican revolution never occurred at all. Would the existing government buy into the German proposal?
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The Zimmerman Telegram was dismissed for several reasons, obviously the Mexican Revolution was big one, but Carranza's government knew that even without the Revolution the US had a far superior military that any offensive war would be suicidal. Plus they knew they couldn't really count on the support the Germans were offering and even they did somehow pull it off, it would of been impossible to hold those states. We're talking millions of English speaking Americans with probably even more guns, can't assimilated would cost far more to rule and acquire than any benefits they could gain. Even if it's not Carranza in power, whoever's running things would probably realize the same things.
 
Dan1988

Dan1988

Either the Mexican Revolution does not happen at all - and hence the Porfiriato continues - or Victoriano Huerta remains the President of Mexico. Those are the only two ways I see that happening. And since everyone hated Huerta's guts, from the Constitutionalists down to the Zapatistas, . . .
 

David T

Dan1988 said:
Either the Mexican Revolution does not happen at all - and hence the Porfiriato continues - or Victoriano Huerta remains the President of Mexico. Those are the only two ways I see that happening. And since everyone hated Huerta's guts, from the Constitutionalists down to the Zapatistas, . . .
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If Huerta were still in power in 1917, it would almost certainly mean that the US had given up on trying to oust him--so why would he want to jeopardize that?

As for Diaz, he would be dead by 1915 anyway, but why would he want to go to war with the US--knowing that Germany couldn't help him? Diaz's major justification for his rule after all was that he had brought peace to Mexico. Moreover, he was not hostile to the Entente, as I have noted in two posts:

***
Diaz, though he had fought against the French, was a Francophile--something evident in the architecture of Mexico City when he was in power. [1] It is fitting that he died in exile in Paris. His powerful Secretary of Finance, José Yves Limantour, was considered especially Francophile. "Limantour remained in France for the remainder of his life. He became a member of the Académie des Sciences Morales et Politiques and was named a grand officer of the French Legion of Honor. He died in Paris on August 26, 1935, largely forgotten..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/José_Yves_Limantour Economically, "French investment was paramount in government and banking." https://books.google.com/books?id=3n4-rmDCUyQC&pg=PA20 The intellectual influence of France was enormous: "Curiously enough, in few other places of the Iberian American world would the Positivist movement reach the kind of influence that it had in Mexico, during the several decades of the government of Porfirio Diaz. Franco–Mexican relations reached a zenith during that period, even though General Diaz had been a hero in the fight against the French invaders. Not surprisingly, after being toppled he moved to France, where he spent his last years." https://books.google.com/books?id=KeY7DwAAQBAJ&pg=PA10

[1] "Palacio de Bellas Artes

Commissioned by Francophile President Porfirio Díaz, this white marble palace would be right at home in Paris with its art nouveau style and deco interior—until you glimpse the walls. Murals by Mexico’s most inflammatory and revered artists (Orozco, Rivera, Siqueiros) disrupt and beguile."
https://www.sunset.com/travel/hawaii-mexico/mexico-city#palacio-de-bellas-artes-mexico-city The murals, needless to say, were a later development...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-with-mexico-before-ww1.453620/#post-17721454


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Why would Diaz do this [invade Belize]? He was quite pro-British--he had recognized British sovereignty over Belize https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belize–Mexico_border and encouraged British investment in Mexico (partly as a counterweight to excessive dependence on the US). Moreover, his major justification for his authoritarian rule was that he had brought peace to Mexico. Why is he suddenly embarking on a risky war of aggression that will enrage the US, which does not want any change in Latin American borders, and which though neutral in the Great War has been suspicious for a generation of Germany's Caribbean ambitions? The only nation that would be pleased would be Germany, but Germany is not in much of a position to help Mexico, after all...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...o-invades-belize-in-ww1.452807/#post-17657795
 
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Michel Van

Michel Van

Arthur Zimmermann proposal was utterly insane, but also complete unworkable

his boldness to do this without informing his Secretary of State and the Oberste Heeres Leitung
he proposed a German alliance with Mexico and Japan against USA, if they declare war.
Japan was on side of the Entente, they would have given that Information to British and they to USA !
Mexican for moment were under brutal Civil war, were several fraction were raiding into the USA, but that was not the Government who Zimmerman was addressing to.
in fact the raiders were the Enemy of current Mexican Government !
Zimmerman Initiative violated the Monroe Doctrine, on USA not interfering in Europans affairs, so long European not interfering in US.

What Zimmermann confirmed toward US journalist, who interview him about it after telegram became public.
This let to US declaration of War to German Empire...
 

cjc

Well, implosable basicly, baring some ASB event, but not implosable to get America and Mexico into a war.
Mexicans from gust about every part hated the american interventions, and purshing was actively trying to completly take over all of Chihuahua in his hunt for villa, and if he had been a bit more of a lose cannon and done that the Mexican army in the state would have resested, sparking off a war wether Wilson or Carranza wanted it or not.
 

sloreck

The only way for Mexico to get the "lost territories" back is to never lose them in the first place. If Santa Anna defeats the Texas revolt, which is not totally ASB, then some of what Mexico lost after that stays, some still goes although at least part of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona stays, maybe a bit of very southern California. Once the US owns that territory, forget it. The USA starting a war with Mexico rather than just the interventions is pretty ASB as nobody at that time was interested in annexing any of Northern Mexico which would come with all those (brown) Mexicans - aside from his "self determination mantra" Wilson was a particularly vicious racist and adding colored Catholics who did not speak English would not be something he would like. An accidental war is more possible, but just barely.

Obviously Zimmerman must have been smoking some of the "gift" marijuana sent from Mexico (a joke). Even against the relatively unprepared USA of 1914-1916 and had Mexico not been involved in a civil war, the USA would have curb stomped Mexico in short order. If Germany had some troops (beyond a few advisors) and equipment to spare there was basically zero chance that anything sent from Germany to Mexico would ever arrive between running past the RN and MN and then the USN (through all those nice Caribbean chokepoints). The net effect of Mexico taking action based on the telegram would have meant the USA declares war on Germany sooner, and begins full transition to war more rapidly. When the AEF arrives, and this would be no later than OTL, it is not an entirely raw force but leavened with combat experienced officers and NCOs from the fighting in Mexico.

In relatively short order, not overnight but not years, the fighting in Mexico will result in either a Mexican surrender or the front stabilizing somewhere the USA can live with south of the OTL border and it becoming a secondary theater allowing the bulk of US forces to go to Europe.
 
Aisha Clan-Clan

Aisha Clan-Clan

Mexico's government under diaz somehow invents modern "meritocratic" corporate/government hiring practices and you get the leadership in ttl's 1910s being comprised of people who'd think paint is a good smoothie addition and that 1914 Mexico could win a war against the us. You know, people like your typical corporate HR/management types.
 

Mort the Reaper

Also, IIRC, the only country willing and able to provide Mexico with the required armaments was... America. So the idea was pretty much doomed from the start.
 
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