What would an 1870-1871 partition of Austria-Hungary look like?
- Thread starter CaliGuy
- Start date
CaliGuy
Banned
Also, for what it's worth, here is a map of Europe in 1871:
http://omniatlas.com/maps/europe/18710510/
http://omniatlas.com/maps/europe/18710510/
You do not need Bismarck to die, just for the Austrians to misinterpret the situation and consider Russian threats of intervention as bluffs. The actual war will see France and Austria Hungary soundly defeated. However, Bismarck will not want more of Austria Hungary nor will he want Russia to gain too much. So Russia probably gains Galicia Lodomeria and guarantees in the Balkans.
I could see Hungarian and Croatian "independence" (whether they opt to become a republic or make a local noble their monarch depends on who's in charge).
CaliGuy
Banned
Could the momentum in favor of an Anschluss be too much for Bismarck to resist, though?
Also, if Russia insists on also acquiring Subcarpathian Ruthenia and Slovakia, is Germany going to fight them for it?
Is Slovenia going to remain a part of Austria/be annexed by Germany? Also, what about Czechia?
Croatia was quite pro-Austrian right up until independence, as there was a general fear of Hungary.
I doubt it, also such an action would draw further European powers into the conflict.
Russia might get Subcarpathian Ruthenia but not Slovakia. They would probably just take some guarantees in the Balkans rather than Slovakia, leading to a more favorable ending of the Russo Turkish War of 1876 if it still happens.
Slovenia is too far away to be annexed. Czechia has too many Catholics.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
1. They'd at least say that the "controlled demolition" of Austria needs to be handled by an international conference and make passionate noises about "The Balance of Power", "Interests of All Parties", and other phrases that will put them on Great Britian's good side. In a conference, a Germany that looks magnanimous and isen't looking for massive gains on their part is more likely to get the other powers to weigh in on their side. If Russia insists on trying to seize them by force of arms anyways, they've basically isolated themselves diplomatically for the foreseeable future and demonstrated they have no concern for the balance of power in Eastern Europe; something that's even more relevant since Germany would now be their main rival in the area, souring any alliance potential they may have. Expect Britain to do everything in its power to rip the two apart and put their rival in "The Great Game" into as non-threatening a position as possible.
2. Slovenia is probably attached to rump Austria. Bohemia-Moravia... well, it could break away or remain under the Hapsburg crown.
Of course it wouldn't be entirely up to Bismarck. He had quite a fight in 1866 to dissuade King Wilhelm from demanding any Austrian territory, and he's unlikely to manage it twice. So Austrian Silesia will go at a minimum, and maybe German-speaking parts of Bohemia and Moravia to Saxony and Prussia
Also, Bavaria will have its eye on Salzburg, Tyrol and maybe other bits, and Bismarck needs King Ludwig onside to get his approval for proclaiming Wilhelm as Emperor. So he may have to agree.
Last edited:
I forgot about Bavaria, I agree Bavaria would probably end up with those "bits". Regarding Moravia and Saxony, did the King of Saxony particularly want Moravia or is that just the logical concession to gain Saxony's support for making Wilhelm emperor?
I meant it the other way round, ie that Saxony would get an adjoining strip of Bohemia - the Eger Valley and perhaps a little more - while Prussia took a chunk of Moravia, perhaps down to about Olmutz. This would give them most of the ethnically German parts of those provinces, roughly what was later called the Sudetenland. I am assuming that Bismarck, if he had to take land from A/H, would stick as far as he could to German-population
Italy might get a bite out of Austria-Hungary if things look dire for the latter, but the Ottoman Empire was in no position to conquer anything in 1870.
Deleted member 94931
If Russia wants to annex Galicia, what will happen to Cracow? Cracow in Russian hands would be a nightmare for Germany, which is why I think Germany would still insist on no annexations at all, if it's a short war.
Aphrodite
Banned
If the Austrians thought the French might win, they could strike in hopes of rallying the smaller German states against the Prussians as in 1866. Very plausible The downside is that the Russians come pouring on top of them. this can draw in the Ottomans but that leads to a general uprising in the Balkans in favor of the Russians
Britain's position is a bit unclear- do they refight the Crimea against Russia? or do they fear french domination of the low countries. They are likely to hesitate and need to time to mobilize in any event.
The partition is likely to be a victors peace with squatter's rights. Which ever army actually grabs something is going to keep it. The advantage lies with the Russians. They have only Austria to deal with while the Prussians have the French and possibly smaller German states to deal with. The Russians might, if they play their cards real well, end up with all of it and the Prussians stuck with what they can get from the French
Britain's position is a bit unclear- do they refight the Crimea against Russia? or do they fear french domination of the low countries. They are likely to hesitate and need to time to mobilize in any event.
The partition is likely to be a victors peace with squatter's rights. Which ever army actually grabs something is going to keep it. The advantage lies with the Russians. They have only Austria to deal with while the Prussians have the French and possibly smaller German states to deal with. The Russians might, if they play their cards real well, end up with all of it and the Prussians stuck with what they can get from the French
CaliGuy
Banned
Would the Ottomans really be willing to risk their existing territories for a new war with Russia? Indeed, what exactly is in it for them?
Also, wouldn't German nationalism ensure that the smaller German states still side with Prussia in this war?