What would an 1870-1871 partition of Austria-Hungary look like?

[Aphrodite]

Would the Ottomans really be willing to risk their existing territories for a new war with Russia? Indeed, what exactly is in it for them?

Also, wouldn't German nationalism ensure that the smaller German states still side with Prussia in this war?

They would if they figure the Russians are coming after them once Austria is beat. The other option is to give the Russians the Balkans for something else in return. In 1914, there would be the North African coast. In 1870, not much

 

[Mikestone8]

Also, wouldn't German nationalism ensure that the smaller German states still side with Prussia in this war?

They will remember what happened to Hanover in 1866, so won't desert Prussia (to whom they are bound by treaties of alliance) unless/until she is clearly losing - which will almost certainly be never.

Bavaria esp has a lot of potential gains from an Austrian defeat, so Bismarck can almost certainly buy her loyalty. And w/o Bavaria the others hardly count.

 

[Falecius]

I don't think that Anschluss can be effectively resisted, even by Bismarck, in this context. Perhaps Germany gets all the historically German bits of Cisleithania (possibly minus Southern Tyrol, they might choose to create a Slovenian buffer in order not to have too many Catholic Slavs, but it's unlikely), but renounce Alsace-Lorraine because balance of power.
Italy will be strongly encouraged to get some bits (Trento and Trieste? Perhaps they get something from France too) in order to prevent German access to the Mediterranean, which Britain may be concerned about. Galicia and probably Bukovina (or its northern half) go to Russia. Russia is unlikely to gain much else. Basically nobody would want to chop away much from the Hungarian half of AH. Notionally Germany might look at Burgenland, but everyone would feel they'd got too much already so it's hard to work out. The same reasoning for Transcarpathian Ruthenia. I can't see Russia really wanting Slovakia, or anyone letting them have it.
Of course, if Romania (and perhaps even Serbia) intervene, Hungary would lose parts of Banat and Transylvania, and then it would be harder to keep its historical borders elsewhere. The Powers would be unhappy with that, of course, since it opens the nasty rotten can of redrawing borders on roughly ethnic lines. Italy will want at least coastal Dalmatia but might be unable to force the issue, ending with the province being attached to Croatia. Croatia in turn may or may not end up still tied to Hungary.
There's some potential for it getting very messy. However, a "sick" Austria isn't in anybody interests, so either the peace is mild enough to have Austria as credible Great Power again (which would be, at this point, a danger to both Germany and Russia) or "controlled demolition" would be the order of the day.

 

[Jürgen]

As other people I think that Bismarck to establish a Grossdeutschland, he simply lack any other choice, as doing anything else will be seen as a betrayal. I think Germany have to keep all of Tyrol,' Küstenland and Fiume. Italy will get Dalmatia, Nice, Savoy and maybe Corsica. I think instead of a strong Hungary, Prussia will give Romania as much as it wants of Hungary, while Germany takes greater Burgenland and Pressburg. Hungary keep Slovakia and Carpatian Ruthenia. Backa-Banat is established as a Swiss like confederation, while Croatia becomes independent. Russia gains Galicia. The question are the precise status of Austria and Bohemia in Germany, I imagine will be separated from each other, the question is who gets them.

 

[Falecius]

As other people I think that Bismarck to establish a Grossdeutschland, he simply lack any other choice, as doing anything else will be seen as a betrayal. I think Germany have to keep all of Tyrol,' Küstenland and Fiume. Italy will get Dalmatia, Nice, Savoy and maybe Corsica. I think instead of a strong Hungary, Prussia will give Romania as much as it wants of Hungary, while Germany takes greater Burgenland and Pressburg. Hungary keep Slovakia and Carpatian Ruthenia. Backa-Banat is established as a Swiss like confederation, while Croatia becomes independent. Russia gains Galicia. The question are the precise status of Austria and Bohemia in Germany, I imagine will be separated from each other, the question is who gets them.

Fiume? Why? It was never German in any sense AFAIK. Croatia independent without BOTH Dalmatia and Fiume would be a very nervous country, by the way. This is a very maximal Grossdeutschland (maximal historical claims AND maximal ethnic claims, with some additions), everyone would be pissed off. While I see the logic, I don't see it likely. Bismarck will be able to make people understand that you have to make friends with someone (say, Italy, or Hungary, or Croatia, or, well, Russia).

 

[Halagaz]

It's interesting to think how the Ottoman Empire might participate in the partition. Though it wasn't exactly strong or stable at the time. And what would the Ottomans actually go for?
They could reverse the losses of the Treaty of Svishtov, but that's like two small towns. Tiny lands of largely symbolic value. I suppose the act would still slightly benefit the Ottoman Empire, by allowing it to make an impression of strength and vitality. A tiny impression, but an impression nonetheless.

Or maybe they could go crazy and try to resurrect the Republic of Ragusa, but that doesn't sound like it would work out.

Another thing to consider is that any territorial gains acquired by Romania or Serbia would - technically - also be gains made by the Ottoman state. Still, it's hard to say how the Porte might feel about that sort of thing...

 

[Jürgen]

Fiume? Why? It was never German in any sense AFAIK. Croatia independent without BOTH Dalmatia and Fiume would be a very nervous country, by the way. This is a very maximal Grossdeutschland (maximal historical claims AND maximal ethnic claims, with some additions), everyone would be pissed off. While I see the logic, I don't see it likely. Bismarck will be able to make people understand that you have to make friends with someone (say, Italy, or Hungary, or Croatia, or, well, Russia).

Fiume because it's a better natural port than Triest. Also the Italians won't be happy unless they get a border on the Brenner pass, which would weaken the strategic position of Germany and place hundred thousands of Germans under Italian rule. As for Hungary here Germany trade a stronger Romania for a a weak Hungary as all Romanian claims now lies in Russian territory, they can expect the Romanians to side with Germany in case of war, while Hungary are left as a impotent neighbour. Russia on the other hand gain Galicia, but not Bukovina, so they get a border on the Carpatians, but lack access to the pass to Hungarians plains, and the fact that Hungary control the Slavic Slovakia means that the Hungarians can't afford to be opportunistic and side with Russia in any potential German-Russian conflict. Not that such a conflict are likely as there's not really a place where the two countries interest collides.

So Gemany makes nice with Romania and Russia, leave a impotent Hungary which can't afford to go against German interest, set up a Croatia whose main potential conflict are away from Germany, and pretty much accept the fact that Italy will never be a trustworthy ally no matter what you give them, so Germany keep the strategic territories necessary to invade them.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Germany would probably annex Austria, Slovenia, Bohemia- Moravia. What happens to places like Istria, Trieste, Gorizia, Fiume and Dalmatia depend on a) what kind of agreements Germany can hammer out with Italy and b) whether Germany want a strong South Slavic state or not.

Croatia- Slavonia would probably become a German influenced state, may have parts of or all of Dalmatia, depends on what Germany and Italy have agreed on. Another possibility is tat the Croatian state becomes Italian influenced instead of German influenced.

Hungary- I could see it basically being the Kingdom of Hungary minus Croatia- Slavonia. A German influenced state.

Galizia- Lodomeria- Probably to Russia.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I wonder if a German Dalmatia is possible given the union between it and the Austrian crown. A lot of how the Balkans winds up really depends on the exact breakdown of Austria. If one (or several) groups can make a play for independence it might just be fait accompli when the treaty gets signed. The only things I can say with certainty is that I think Germany would try to avoid an independent Bohemia and they would be very leery of a Russian Krakow, everything else likely depends on who's occupying what and who remained loyal / rebelled when the cards came crashing down.

 

[Jürgen]

I wonder if a German Dalmatia is possible given the union between it and the Austrian crown. A lot of how the Balkans winds up really depends on the exact breakdown of Austria. If one (or several) groups can make a play for independence it might just be fait accompli when the treaty gets signed. The only things I can say with certainty is that I think Germany would try to avoid an independent Bohemia and they would be very leery of a Russian Krakow, everything else likely depends on who's occupying what and who remained loyal / rebelled when the cards came crashing down.

German Dalmatia are fully possible, but there's no real reason for Germany to want it, if they want to keep control over it, they can give it to Croatia, if they don't they can give it to Italy.

 

[Falecius]

Fiume because it's a better natural port than Triest. Also the Italians won't be happy unless they get a border on the Brenner pass, which would weaken the strategic position of Germany and place hundred thousands of Germans under Italian rule. As for Hungary here Germany trade a stronger Romania for a a weak Hungary as all Romanian claims now lies in Russian territory, they can expect the Romanians to side with Germany in case of war, while Hungary are left as a impotent neighbour. Russia on the other hand gain Galicia, but not Bukovina, so they get a border on the Carpatians, but lack access to the pass to Hungarians plains, and the fact that Hungary control the Slavic Slovakia means that the Hungarians can't afford to be opportunistic and side with Russia in any potential German-Russian conflict. Not that such a conflict are likely as there's not really a place where the two countries interest collides.

So Gemany makes nice with Romania and Russia, leave a impotent Hungary which can't afford to go against German interest, set up a Croatia whose main potential conflict are away from Germany, and pretty much accept the fact that Italy will never be a trustworthy ally no matter what you give them, so Germany keep the strategic territories necessary to invade them.

I think you are overestimating the Italian focus on the Brenner pass at this time. What Italy really wanted was 1) Trento (historically German but ethnically Italian) 2) Kuenstenland (ethnically mixed, very little German presence, only sections of it historically a part of "Germany" - as in, the HRE). Denying them both means Italy would be a permanent enemy. The tradeoff is giving Italy Dalmatia, with its huge Croatian majority, meaning you lose also Croatia as a possible ally: they'll be hostile with you too, because Fiume.
Fiume is historically Hungarian/Croatian and ethnically largely Croatian, the Italian claim is flimsy and the German one nonexistent. Britain now hates Germany's guts on a simple Balance of Power basis, particularly as they have direct Med access. Russia will want at least the north half of Bukovina, and will claim Transcarpathia on the same basis Germany claims Pressburg. Denying them both will look at least mildly bad in Russia.
This big Germany would end up almost totally isolated except for Romania.

 

[Mikestone8]

Britain now hates Germany's guts on a simple Balance of Power basis, particularly as they have direct Med access.

Yet we got on well enough with Germany until the Naval race began. We weren't all that fixated on the balance of power unless the power unbalancing it was seen as a naval rival.

 

[Falecius]

We weren't all that fixated on the balance of power unless the power unbalancing it was seen as a naval rival.

Which Germany may become, if they have good Med ports AND the Austrian navy goes to them. Austria wasn't that much of a naval power, but she had a respectable fleet (unlike Prussia). Look at how Britain acted re: the mere possibility of Russian access to the Med. They'd dislike the same very big power having both Hamburg and Trieste. It is also true, however, that there is little Britain could do directly to stop German annexation of Kuenstenland if Berlin is determined to do that; which, in my opinion, they probably would not. They'd be taking in many restive subjects, worsen their diplomatic standing with most neighbours, and gain a permanent enemy.
Also, while I argued that Bismarck can't stop Grossdeutschland here, he still would be happy to have as few Catholics in it as possible, particularly if they are not German speakers.
Of course, this assumes a relatively friendly Italy, which may not be the case. There were discussions in the timeframe considered about an alliance of Italy with France and Austria against North Germany (and Russia), which is very odd since Italy had territorial ambitions against BOTH Austria and France. However, it was on table, probably due to the strong pro-French feelings current in Italian opinion. In this case, Germany still wins, and obviously Italy gets nothing, unless, Bismarck pulls a trick and forces France to give Italy something - say Nizza or Corsica, probably not both - in order to create a wedge between them. I can see maximal outcome in this case regarding the Littoral, I still believe Burgenland and Pressburg would be left to Hungary and Fiume to Croatia in this case. Croatia would also get Dalmatia here (why would Germany want it, or the locals desire German rule?). This makes for a more or less satisfied Croatia that would be German influenced and may afford to be friendly to Berlin and an ally against Italy. (well, there's a Croatian minority in Inner Istria, which would be German in this case, that could cause future tensions; but Italy would be a bigger common threat).

 

[Saphroneth]

Had Austria-Hungary foolishly entered the Franco-Prussian War on France's side (due to a desire for revenge on Prussia; for the events of 1866), and had Russia entered this war on Germany's side afterwards, what would the resulting partition of Austria-Hungary have looked like?

Why would it be "foolish"? Prussia would be heavily engaged, and the Austro-Hungarian military was modernized with Werndl–Holub breechloaders (probably better than the Dreyse) - they'd spent huge sums of money since 1867.

 

[The Gunslinger]

. Britain now hates Germany's guts on a simple Balance of Power basis, particularly as they have direct Med access.

Germany and Britain got along fine right up until the naval race began, and it took an invasion of Belgium to get Britain to enter a war to contain it. Britain would be showing an awful lack of tact and a great deal of foresight in declaring itself opposed to Germany right from its inception. If Germany is willing to work with Britain, especially regarding Russia, there's no reason they can't get along.

 

[Thoresby]

Germany would probably annex Austria, Slovenia, Bohemia- Moravia. What happens to places like Istria, Trieste, Gorizia, Fiume and Dalmatia depend on a) what kind of agreements Germany can hammer out with Italy and b) whether Germany want a strong South Slavic state or not.

Croatia- Slavonia would probably become a German influenced state, may have parts of or all of Dalmatia, depends on what Germany and Italy have agreed on. Another possibility is tat the Croatian state becomes Italian influenced instead of German influenced.

Hungary- I could see it basically being the Kingdom of Hungary minus Croatia- Slavonia. A German influenced state.

And 10 minutes later every other country in Europe aligns against the new Superpower. Including Britain which is the actual Superpower at the point. While in OTL Britain got on fine with Germany pre the Naval Race that was in large part because Germany didn't go on an annexation spree and Bismark made it very clear that Germany had no territorial ambitions in Europe, in this tl that has gone out the window. Such a maximalist approach is going to terrify everyone else and thus would be enormously self harming so Bismark would do his best to stop it, but as others have said internal pressures may be too much.

 

[Falecius]

Germany and Britain got along fine right up until the naval race began, and it took an invasion of Belgium to get Britain to enter a war to contain it. Britain would be showing an awful lack of tact and a great deal of foresight in declaring itself opposed to Germany right from its inception. If Germany is willing to work with Britain, especially regarding Russia, there's no reason they can't get along.

True IOTL. But it is Grossdeutschland we are talking about here. It's a significantly bigger fish. And they are allies with Russia here. However, I didn't say that Britain would oppose German reunification as such. They would just be concerned about Germany having direct Med access (on top of being the clear continental hegemon). In general, partitioning a Great Power is kinda big deal, and Britain would be interested in making sure nobody gains too much from it. It's different from being prejudicially hostile to Germany, which I don't think they would be.

 

[Falecius]

Let us have a more detailed scenario: the Austrian court misinterprets both Russia's intentions and France's strength, and joins France's side early (upon the occupation of Saarbruecken?). At this point, if my reading is correct, Prussia has 90.000 men in reserve precisely against an Austrian attack, while the forces on the French border may continue the offensive.
Of course, the Austrian intervention may cause a critical redeployment of Prussian units, causing the Prussian victories in August not to occur. At the same time, it would take some time for Russia to mobilize in Prussia's help. Austria would not want to fight Bavaria for political reasons, though obviously it is likely to have to (political repercussions in Bavaria will be interesting). So, wil Austria attack in Silesia? That puts Russia in easy position to strike at the main Austrian forces (Russia has the numbers to attack in Galicia at the same time, though the logistics may not be up to the task).
We may assume that Metz is still besieged and Sedan happens, both on schedule (it's by no means guaranteed). At this point, however, does France choose to resist, galvanized by Austrian support? And what is Italy going to do? An opportunistic attack on Rome may trigger war with both France and Austria. Irredentism was not a big factor in national politics yet, but historically, public opinion heavily sympathized with the French Republic against "autocratic" Prussia. This changes ITTL, but would Vienna keep fighting alongside a Republican French regime?
This may save Austria's ass: they seek peace after a few engagements, territorial losses (Galicia, Silesia, Salzburg, Vorarlberg), but the Empire stays united. Alternatively, Hungary sees the writing on the wall and declares independence (what's in it for them after all?). This forces Grossdeutschland without Pressburg.
Prussia is still pushing for A-L here: they can't back down if they are fighting still.
Too many variables.
It probably ends in a European congress.

 

[Jürgen]

People you know what in case of UK it doesn't make a difference how much Germany takes, Bismarck can't get away with not annexing Austria and Bohemia, so he just as well ignore UK and focus in getting a strong strategic position for Germany. Also without Austria Germany and Russia have no reason to end up on opposite side. Italy is not trustworthy, so their interests doesn't matter, give them Nice, Savoy and Corsica to place them in conflict with the French, not for any other reason, if you can get the Belgiums aboard give them some border changes too. Hungary aren't relevant as a power without Austria, so Germany can just as well remove any delusion of grandeur they have. Romania are a relative large ethnicity, and lack any potential conflict with Germany, why not strengthen them by giving them the river Tisza as their western border (maybe minus Banat, you can potential make some population exchanges) and Bukovina) While slightly smaller than OTL Hungary in population, Romanians are in massive majority. Giving the Croats a free hand to expand in the Balkans, then you have them aboard. The question are whether Slovakia should be set up as independent state.

 

[Diego]

Bismarck can't get away with not annexing Austria and Bohemia, so he just as well ignore UK and focus in getting a strong strategic position for Germany.

As I said in another thread, the annexation of Austria and/or Bohemia is a serious risk for Bismarck and the assured rise of the Zentrum, Bismarck and his party have strong personal motivations against full annexation of Catholic regions. I think that "Britain will not like!" is a good cover to the real reason "My political enemies will get stronger!"...