What would an 1870-1871 partition of Austria-Hungary look like?

Old1812

Old1812

I'm curious about what happens to France ITTL. I'm guessing French humiliation will be lessened as they won't have lost Alsace-Lorraine. I also wonder if Napoleon III could agree to abdicate in favor of his son. I'd mention the Paris Commune, but I guess they're a bit overdone by now.
 

Falecius

Old1812 said:
I'm curious about what happens to France ITTL. I'm guessing French humiliation will be lessened as they won't have lost Alsace-Lorraine. I also wonder if Napoleon III could agree to abdicate in favor of his son. I'd mention the Paris Commune, but I guess they're a bit overdone by now.
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The most plausible scenario, I am afraid, is that Germany goes for Alsace-Lorraine anyway; assuming minor changes to the war in the West, by the time Austria enters the war, Sédan (or a close equivalent) is about to happen, and if Germany does not ask for A-L at that point, the war would be over, probably before major engagements between Prussia and Austria can take place. Austria folds, Germany gets Austrian Silesia and Russia maybe takes Tarnopol, the end. Better for Bismarck, but not what the OP is asking for (and the Grossdeutsch momentum may still create an internal crisis in Austria).
Of course, the Western front may be changed enough by Austrian entry that Sédan does not happen, and a more protracted conflict occurs in Lorraine while Germany focuses on Austria; this may assume Napoleon staying in charge longer. I this case, I can see Germany choosing not to incorporate A-L.
 

DarkKayder

CaliGuy said:
Had Austria-Hungary foolishly entered the Franco-Prussian War on France's side (due to a desire for revenge on Prussia; for the events of 1866), and had Russia entered this war on Germany's side afterwards, what would the resulting partition of Austria-Hungary have looked like?
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We had a thread a little over a year ago where the possibility about A-H joining the war was considered, but eventually it was pointed out that the particularly sluggish deployment of the Austrian military was actually slower (over 6 weeks) than the time it took for it to become obvious that France was going to lose.

In other words, unless Austria had manifested their intentions to support the French (Why?) and already mobilized the army (in which case Prussia would had avoided war at all cost), they would be declaring war a week or so AFTER Sedan. Which would make no sense at all.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Falecius said:
The tradeoff is giving Italy Dalmatia, with its huge Croatian majority, meaning you lose also Croatia as a possible ally: they'll be hostile with you too, because Fiume.
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But the beauty of this for Germany is the Italians and Croats won't be able to align, they hate each other as much as they hate Germany.
 

Falecius

CaliGuy said:
Why would Germany take Trentino?
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It was regarded as historically German land, part of the German Confederation, within a vastly German province (Tyrol); in earlier times, the bishopric of Trento was a princely state of the HRE and the area had a larger German ethnic presence judging by onomastics. Apparently, Prussia objected to Italy occupying it in 1866 (Garibaldi was nearing the city and Italian government demanded him to stop, it took the King to intervene personally - Italian history books describe this as a result of Prussian pressure, and while I find it believable, I have no reference for it).
 

Falecius

Colonel Troutstrangler said:
The best North/ south alliance to dominate Europe has always been "Germany" and "Italy" its a "natural" alliance that will always beat the east west alliances.
It does of course mean that AH is no more....
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This is what Mussolini and Hitler believed, maybe. See how it went.
A nationalist Greater Germany and a nationalist Italy would have points of tension as they directly share a long border where the ethnic makeup, historical claims and "natural" border (the Alpine watershed) do not coincide. Italy thought it vital to press the "natural" claim to the Brenner pass, for instance, for defensive reasons, regardless of the ethnic realities (the bitterness involved is still well alive in the area in question; many members of the German-speaking majority in the province of Bozen do not miss a chance to recall that their Italian citizenship did not spring out of their will). A Greater Germany that includes Slovenia would add a wider area of contention, though of course in this latter area the majority would be Slavic.
 

JackLumber

Falecius said:
It was regarded as historically German land, part of the German Confederation, within a vastly German province (Tyrol); in earlier times, the bishopric of Trento was a princely state of the HRE and the area had a larger German ethnic presence judging by onomastics. Apparently, Prussia objected to Italy occupying it in 1866 (Garibaldi was nearing the city and Italian government demanded him to stop, it took the King to intervene personally - Italian history books describe this as a result of Prussian pressure, and while I find it believable, I have no reference for it).
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I was always under the impression that Prussia would not have permitted them to take it, personally I believe this was entirely due to a desire to build and maintain favour with German nationalists.
 

Colonel Troutstrangler

I
Falecius said:
This is what Mussolini and Hitler believed, maybe. See how it went.
A nationalist Greater Germany and a nationalist Italy would have points of tension as they directly share a long border where the ethnic makeup, historical claims and "natural" border (the Alpine watershed) do not coincide. Italy thought it vital to press the "natural" claim to the Brenner pass, for instance, for defensive reasons, regardless of the ethnic realities (the bitterness involved is still well alive in the area in question; many members of the German-speaking majority in the province of Bozen do not miss a chance to recall that their Italian citizenship did not spring out of their will). A Greater Germany that includes Slovenia would add a wider area of contention, though of course in this latter area the majority would be Slavic.
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It goes back to the days of the first HRE under the German kings.
 

Falecius

Colonel Troutstrangler said:
I

It goes back to the days of the first HRE under the German kings.
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True. But the HRE only controlled half of Italy, and it never dominated Europe: France was more densely populated and more culturally influential most of the times. Also, the Emperors tended to have a very hard time keeping the German nobles and the Italian cities in line at the same time (often focusing on Italy, which tended to weaken their grip on Germany, in a first phase; later, they focused on Germany and lost quite a bit of clout in Italy, to the advantage of France and, later, Aragon).
 
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