Let's say the Qing dynasty comes to an end in the 19th century or earlier and is replaced by another dynasty. What might this dynasty look like? And would it have any better luck dealing with the Western world and Japan?
What might a Qing dynasty successor look like?
Yuan Shikai's attempt at being an emperor came to mind, but either way I think that any new dynasty will be Ethnically Han and attempt modernization like Meiji. Or based heavenly kingdom is always a choice.
Very unlikely, although the Qing court was indeed a reason for the overall failure of the Qing during the 19th century it was definitely not the main one, simply put China wasn't in good shape by the turn of the 1800s, the economy was terrible, the government was corrupt and inneficiente, delegating several functions to local gentry, ethnic tensions, etc. It wasn't Western intervention that made China weak and unstable, it already was when the British came knocking.
Should the Qing fully collapse and another take its place (Taiping, Nian, or other) they now have the hard job of properly unifying the country (counting just China proper) and worse yet, rule it, it is not so simple as moving an 100,000 army to Chongqing and have it send tax revenue at 100% efficiency, there isn't really too many people to properly manage that.
Another point to note is what "modernization" means, is it correct to say China failed to modernize in the 1800s? It built arsenals, purchased Western hardware, etc. However we can also question the effectivity of those reforms, but we can also note that the Chinese modernizers had different approaches and interpretations for it, Li Hongzhang died as a millionarie, owner of several industrial enterprises after all.
It will be han and anti manchu. Maybe it can be restored Ming . The ming Dynasty decsendents existed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marquis_of_Extended_Grace
It can also be a decsendent of confucius https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marquis_of_Extended_Grace
They will want to remove western and machu influence, possibly through self stengthening by modernisation or they can support spiriutal revitalisation, similar to boxers. Or it can be a mixture of both. But I do not think modernisation is garaunteed, atleast not copying western values
One thing I’m curious about, if this hypothetical Ethnically Han Chinese Dynasty would keep the non-Han regions, like Mongolia, Manchuria, Tibet, or Xinjiang
Carter I'm Yog
Banned
Won't really call this a problem since this has been a part of government since time immemorial. Even modern governments have traces of such behavior.
With all the blood already spilled for the province, if this new dynasty is gonna let Xinjiang go, it's not going to do it peacefully without duress. Manchuria is a non-concept by the late 19th century due to migration. Only one that might break off peacefully is Tibet I guess, and even that may not gain de jure recognition.
Of course they're going to try modernizing China—just like the Qing did OTL.
Like the Qing, they'll most likely fail.
What I dont understand is why modernize if they already adopted modern tech and other stuff they are already modernized. What they need is reforms and other stuff, they already did huge progress on modernization and industrialization. They need reforms to fix the institutional problems they have
The Qing only ever "adopted modern tech" on a very limited and piecemeal level. It's like asking why the DRC's so poor if they have modern main battle tanks.
Of course, the reasons why "adopting modern tech" is difficult often have to do with the institutional problems you're talking about.
In the late period before the fall, Cixi and other conservatives had spearheaded the modernization reforms and industrialization. But being too late it collapsed
Is the New dynasty willing to reform? And how would they cope up with the other factions like the Republicans and reformists under Sun Yat Sen, Which had a strong foothold in the south
A problem since time immemorial is still a problem, it is like power delegation today, it would be the equivalent of the modern USA to pretend everything below the county didn't exist and let local elites run it de jure, I forgot the exact numbers, but modern day NYC has as many bureaucrats managing the city than the Qing had for their entire territory by 1840, Modern NYV had around 8-9 million people, the Qing had 450 million, you can't really undertake a massive modernization campaign (like Japan, the only to succeeded in it) without a strong state control over its territory.
Carter I'm Yog
Banned
Adopting modern technology is still a far cry from full modernization, as other posters have noted. Buying pretty new German guns and British battleships is a different matter compared to forming the bonds of identity that define a modern state. And forming the whole lot of other institutions.
And paying for everything.
Yes, it was too little too late.
OTL saw the reformists side with the revolutionaries under Dr. Sun Yat-sen because Beijing did too little too late. Still, reformists like Liang Qi-chao differed with the revolutionaries on many specific matters (what to do with the Manchus once the new country is built, for example). If the Qing dynasty was overthrown earlier and the new (very likely ethnic-Han) dynasty was willing to take aggressive steps to reform, the revolutionary faction might not have gained traction and support like OTL.
If not, 1911 would just be the Xinhai Revolution with sharp class struggle characteristics.
My bad. I should have said it won't be a problem for first steps in modernization, greater control would have to be asserted once the first steps in modernization bore fruit.