What if Zara Yaqob had dammed off the Nile?

[Atterdag]

So if you don't know, the ethiopian emperor Zara Yakub threatened that he would build dams to halt the Nile's flow, when he heard that the Sultan was destroying christian churches. He never did this, I don't even know if the engineering technology to do so existed at the time. But what if he had? How would the halting or at least reducing of the Nile's flow affect Egypt?

Obviously there would be famine and inevitable war between the two countries. But what more could change? Do we see a fracturing of the Mamluk sultanate as this "eleventh plague" wreaks havoc upon the land?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Could he even do that? IIRC, a major challenge for Zara Yakub was finding firewood and food for people who wanted to live in his capital Debre Berhan. Such an engineering challenge seems pretty counterproductive for Ethiopia, as well as not long-lasting.

If it happened, it would embed itself into the Egyptian memory, and something like the current disputes over the Nile would be far, far more bitter, to the point of war.

 

[twistedirregular]

I doubt that Zara Yaqob even possesses the ability to acquire the necessary materials to undertake such a project.

 

[twistedirregular]

I do doubt the ability of Zara Yaqob to actually build a dam but a gradual construction process might happen if Ethiopian urbanization, centered around Debre Berhan or Gondar, might occur and inspire such a process.

 

[Pelranius]

Where's all the water going to go? Building aqueducts to take it around the mountainous Ethiopian terrain is probably asking too much.

 

[GauchoBadger]

"We're gonna build a YUGE dam, and Egypt is going to pay for it!"

I mean... what is the point of that, if he's just going to earn the long-term animosity of Egypt?

 

[Kirook]

"We're gonna build a YUGE dam, and Egypt is going to pay for it!"

I mean... what is the point of that, if he's just going to earn the long-term animosity of Egypt?

If he can block the flow of the Nile at any time, he’s essentially holding all of Egypt’s water supply (and food supply, because of irrigation) hostage. He can force them to do whatever he wants them to do if they’re convinced he’ll follow through on the threat.

 

[twistedirregular]

"We're gonna build a YUGE dam, and Egypt is going to pay for it!"

I mean... what is the point of that, if he's just going to earn the long-term animosity of Egypt?

If he can block the flow of the Nile at any time, he’s essentially holding all of Egypt’s water supply (and food supply, because of irrigation) hostage. He can force them to do whatever he wants them to do if they’re convinced he’ll follow through on the threat.

If I remember correctly, quite a few Ethiopian Emperors made this threat and they might be able to wrangle some concessions from the Egyptians if Cairo is convinced enough.

 

[Arkenfolm]

It will also ensure Egypt expands south much earlier than OTL, wiping away the last traces of Makuria and Alodia as they try and strike down the Ethiopians for this offense. It's only a century before the Ethiopians are pressed by Ahmad Gragn and his supporters, the Ottomans. Such a blatant act of aggression which Ethiopia cannot maintain, the absolute weakness of the states in-between them and Egypt (Makuria and Alodia are basically dead by Zara Yaqob's era), and the rise of the Ottomans means this is very likely to backfire on Ethiopia.

 

[Max Sinister]

But soldiers dying of thirst aren't good soldiers.

Any way, I think a) it'd be unfeasible with medieval methods and b) even if, would he want to become a mass murderer?

 

[twistedirregular]

It will also ensure Egypt expands south much earlier than OTL, wiping away the last traces of Makuria and Alodia as they try and strike down the Ethiopians for this offense. It's only a century before the Ethiopians are pressed by Ahmad Gragn and his supporters, the Ottomans. Such a blatant act of aggression which Ethiopia cannot maintain, the absolute weakness of the states in-between them and Egypt (Makuria and Alodia are basically dead by Zara Yaqob's era), and the rise of the Ottomans means this is very likely to backfire on Ethiopia.

Would Ethiopia collapse ITTL?

 

[Arkenfolm]

But soldiers dying of thirst aren't good soldiers.

Any way, I think a) it'd be unfeasible with meideval methods and b) even if, would he want to become a mass murderer?

A) Very, very challenging, but possible. The problem is the Nile will still flow as its source is the African great lakes, no matter how much is lost in the Sudd.
B) He's targetting infidels, and by the medieval mindset surely the righteous (Copts, Christian Nubians) would rise up and destroy the Muslim infidels with divine support.

Egypt might be weakened, but Ethiopia still spent a lot of manpower and resources in building a dam, and this will be very costly when they fight Ahmad Gragn and his Somali forces as well as the Ottoman Empire.

Would Ethiopia collapse ITTL?

Debateable. Maybe Ethiopia uses this engineering feat to figure out new structures for organisation of cities and such and thus can raise an army to easily counter Ahmad Gragn and other forces (the Oromo), as well as settle the Ethiopian ruler down in one city (attracting foreign trade and helping with centralisation and curtailing the independence of various nobles). On the other hand, the Oromo, Ahmad Gragn, etc. now have an even easier path to defeating Ethiopia and that's the end of things.

 

[twistedirregular]

Debatable. Maybe Ethiopia uses this engineering feat to figure out new structures for organisation of cities and such and thus can raise an army to easily counter Ahmad Gragn and other forces (the Oromo), as well as settle the Ethiopian ruler down in one city (attracting foreign trade and helping with centralisation and curtailing the independence of various nobles). On the other hand, the Oromo, Ahmad Gragn, etc. now have an even easier path to defeating Ethiopia and that's the end of things.

That's something I hadn't considered - a revival in Ethiopian urbanism might see the earlier establishment of Gondar which sets off a process that allows for Ethiopia to take control of the Muslim-dominated trade routes in the Horn of Africa (which was one of the contributing factors in Ahmad's invasion) and Ethiopian centralization?

 

[Arkenfolm]

That's something I hadn't considered - a revival in Ethiopian urbanism might see the earlier establishment of Gondar which sets off a process that allows for Ethiopia to take control of the Muslim-dominated trade routes in the Horn of Africa (which was one of the contributing factors in Ahmad's invasion) anhasd Ethiopian centralization?

From what I can tell, the decentralisation of Ethiopia and lack of a solid capital (be it Gondar, Debre Berhan, etc.) was a huge problem in Ethiopia's economic development. The issue of food and firewood could no doubt be solved if some painful reforms were taken (or less optimally the importation of invasive species like Australian Acacia trees or American mesquite trees, which been done in modern Ethiopia and has had some notable social influences). While building a dam isn't the best idea and might as well be abandoned right after Zara Yaqub dies, the structures needed to build the dam, and what a smaller dam could bring--irrigation land--could mean the new Ethiopian ruling class has a nice capital to settle down into and you get more centralisation in Ethiopia.

 

[twistedirregular]

From what I can tell, the decentralisation of Ethiopia and lack of a solid capital (be it Gondar, Debre Berhan, etc.) was a huge problem in Ethiopia's economic development. The issue of food and firewood could no doubt be solved if some painful reforms were taken (or less optimally the importation of invasive species like Australian Acacia trees or American mesquite trees, which been done in modern Ethiopia and has had some notable social influences). While building a dam isn't the best idea and might as well be abandoned right after Zara Yaqub dies, the structures needed to build the dam, and what a smaller dam could bring--irrigation land--could mean the new Ethiopian ruling class has a nice capital to settle down into and you get more centralisation in Ethiopia.

Could we see a revival in Aksumite-style architecture and urbanism in Zara Yaqob's Ethiopia similarly to the way that it occurred in Zagwe Dynasty?

 

[Umbral]

Where does the water go? A dam will not make the Nile stop flowing. How big a reservoir can he make? Can he redirect the river anywhere? Otherwise, it.ll just overflow the dam when the reservoir is full. Nile is quite water-heavy when it floods.

 

[AlternateEagle]

It would truly be the greatest "no u" moment in human history.

If it were to happen Egypt would literally collapse, their whole economy is built on that river. I guess they would try to invade Abyssinia to let the water flow again.

 

[Max Sinister]

Yeah, if they still have soldiers not dying of thirst after that.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Would Egypt even be able to invade Ethiopia? Contrary to the Rome 2 campaign map there's quite a bit of Sudan between the two.

 

[twistedirregular]

Would Egypt even be able to invade Ethiopia? Contrary to the Rome 2 campaign map there's quite a bit of Sudan between the two.

There's also the consideration of Ethiopian terrain, potential Egyptian underestimation of Ethiopian forces, etc. - a lot of the factors that saw Egypt fail to conquer Ethiopia during Yohannes' reign.