What if Zara Yaqob had dammed off the Nile?

[Lisowczycy]

The only way I see that happening were be to dig a new path for the nile and find enough material to block the river to force it down the new path. But the manpower and construction materials needed will be near impossible for them.

Even so Egypt will notice when the river starts drying up and be mad.

 

[OurSacredWar]

Bump. To add to this, what might the effects be on Ethiopian urbanization?

 

[Pelranius]

Honestly, it's probably near ASB for Zara Yacob to get the manpower and resources to dam the Nile.

 

[twistedirregular]

Honestly, it's probably near ASB for Zara Yacob to get the manpower and resources to dam the Nile.

Most likely but the effects of him attempting to do so might have some interesting results on Ethiopia's development as @metalinvader665 suggests.

 

[Wolttaire]

The effect on Egypt would be devesqting even if it last only for a couple months the effect would devastate Egypt for years and it be quite a effort for Egypt to get to Ethiopia

 

[twistedirregular]

The effect on Egypt would be devesqting even if it last only for a couple months the effect would devastate Egypt for years and it be quite a effort for Egypt to get to Ethiopia

Wouldn't the Ottomans intervene alongside the Egyptians in this scenario?

 

[Wolttaire]

Wouldn't the Ottomans intervene alongside the Egyptians in this scenario?

when this guy die the ottomans had just conquered Byzantine a couple years ago so no they have bigger fish to fry

 

[OurSacredWar]

when this guy die the ottomans had just conquered Byzantine a couple years ago so no they have bigger fish to fry

Could we potentially see the Ottomans allying themselves with Ethiopia ITTL?

 

[Wolttaire]

Could we potentially see the Ottomans allying themselves with Ethiopia ITTL?

There are 2 great a distance and with a lifeless Egypt in between them

 

[Pelranius]

And where's the water supposed to go? Can the Ethiopians build enough of an irrigation system to drain out the reservoir (otherwise the dam will collapse sooner or later, and that won't be pretty at all)?

 

[fdas]

And where's the water supposed to go? Can the Ethiopians build enough of an irrigation system to drain out the reservoir (otherwise the dam will collapse sooner or later, and that won't be pretty at all)?

Well, even if it breaks after a while, it would just wreck the Egyptians even more when a massive flood destroys the desiccated corpse of Egypt.

 

[OurSacredWar]

And where's the water supposed to go? Can the Ethiopians build enough of an irrigation system to drain out the reservoir (otherwise the dam will collapse sooner or later, and that won't be pretty at all)?

Perhaps Zara (and his successors) attempt to re-route it towards the Ethiopian interior? We might see Ethiopia follow the path of the Ajuran Sultanate and become a hydraulic empire.

 

[DominusNovus]

Well, even if it breaks after a while, it would just wreck the Egyptians even more when a massive flood destroys the desiccated corpse of Egypt.

Came here just to make this point. You don’t even need to break it: ideally, if its being used as hydrological blackmail, it should have loads of floodgates, so the Ethiopians can flood Egypt at will when their reservoir is full. Thats honestly terrifying.

 

[OurSacredWar]

Came here just to make this point. You don’t even need to break it: ideally, if its being used as hydrological blackmail, it should have loads of floodgates, so the Ethiopians can flood Egypt at will when their reservoir is full. Thats honestly terrifying.

Wheezing laughter in Amharic.

In all seriousness, what could this mean for Ethiopian-Egyptian relations?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Egypt has a nice counter to Ethiopia on this--"stop building that dam or we will start the greatest persecution of Copts like never before".

There are 2 great a distance and with a lifeless Egypt in between them

Egypt would not be "lifeless". It would be pretty doubtful that Zara Yaqob could dam every single river which flows to the Nile which originates in his territory. Even so, a much reduced Nile (no less than 15 percent of the regular flow, probably over 20 percent) will still flow via the White Nile and whatever rivers Zara Yaqob can't dam off.

Came here just to make this point. You don’t even need to break it: ideally, if its being used as hydrological blackmail, it should have loads of floodgates, so the Ethiopians can flood Egypt at will when their reservoir is full. Thats honestly terrifying.

IIRC North Korea has a dam like that, so South Korea built a dam whose sole purpose is to contain the flood from the DPRK dam. No reason someone couldn't come up with something like that in earlier times.

 

[fdas]

IIRC North Korea has a dam like that, so South Korea built a dam whose sole purpose is to contain the flood from the DPRK dam. No reason someone couldn't come up with something like that in earlier times.

Well, South Korea isn't dependent on that river for water. So even if the flooding is contained, everyone in Egypt is still going to starve to death.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

A better threat, and probably one best done silently - is encroach northwards, and putting the effort in to irrigate (and drain in turn) vast swathes of land south of Khartoum (which would be a great site for a northern city even back then, especially one that is effectively the bastion against Egypt).

The draining of the Sudd generally works for creating new lands to farm (and with canals, high quality transport network is on hand), but irrigating south of Khartoum on an unseen scale could quietly, without much notice, cause the water levels to drop downstream. This could be done via both Niles, and if you wanted to go mental, you can connect both Niles via canals in expanding arcs south of Khartoum. Plus, doing it that way means that the dirt and rock removed for the canal can be used to create weirs and the like upstream, allowing the Ethiopians to force the water level up passively if needs be.

This could be used to effectively create vast lands to settle for Ethiopians long term, and my initial thoughts would be to have the PoD be the conquest of Soba much earlier than Yaqobs reign, and the founding/settling of a city of Ethiopians on the site of OTL Khartoum to strengthen the kings rule in the region. (I'd suggest a process of general urbanisation, but I don't fully understand Ethiopians problems with urbanisation historically to say).

But settling the region, and then slowly developing it using Nubian slaves, prisoners and general labourers is probably the way to go to have an expanded Ethiopia drain Egypts water supply.

(EDIT : I'd like to add that creating this vast potential agricultural region could very well FEED a rapidly urbanised Ethiopia, especially since they effectively have access to the water of the Nile, and its sediment to use as a topsoil replacement.)

 

[OurSacredWar]

A better threat, and probably one best done silently - is encroach northwards, and putting the effort in to irrigate (and drain in turn) vast swathes of land south of Khartoum (which would be a great site for a northern city even back then, especially one that is effectively the bastion against Egypt).

The draining of the Sudd generally works for creating new lands to farm (and with canals, high quality transport network is on hand), but irrigating south of Khartoum on an unseen scale could quietly, without much notice, cause the water levels to drop downstream. This could be done via both Niles, and if you wanted to go mental, you can connect both Niles via canals in expanding arcs south of Khartoum. Plus, doing it that way means that the dirt and rock removed for the canal can be used to create weirs and the like upstream, allowing the Ethiopians to force the water level up passively if needs be.

This could be used to effectively create vast lands to settle for Ethiopians long term, and my initial thoughts would be to have the PoD be the conquest of Soba much earlier than Yaqobs reign, and the founding/settling of a city of Ethiopians on the site of OTL Khartoum to strengthen the kings rule in the region. (I'd suggest a process of general urbanisation, but I don't fully understand Ethiopians problems with urbanisation historically to say).

But settling the region, and then slowly developing it using Nubian slaves, prisoners and general labourers is probably the way to go to have an expanded Ethiopia drain Egypts water supply.

(EDIT : I'd like to add that creating this vast potential agricultural region could very well FEED a rapidly urbanised Ethiopia, especially since they effectively have access to the water of the Nile, and its sediment to use as a topsoil replacement.)

The historical issue for Ethiopian urbanization is the whole Solomonic tradition of a "moving capital/court" that was done in order to avoid exhausting the resources of one region and making sure that your vassals don't end up rebelling against you by consistently ensuring your presence. Urbanization was occurring with the Zagwe Dynasty but that ended with the Solomonic Dynasty taking power under Yekunno Amlak/Tesfa Iyasus - if you want urbanization to continue, you'd need a stronger Zagwe Dynasty or just have a strong Solomonic Dynasty that fails to seize power and ends up entering into personal union with the Zagwe Dynasty which continues urbanization programs.

I don't think it's too plausible for Ethiopia to be expanding into South Sudan when she has the threats of Muslim powers to the north and east to be dealing with but I could be wrong. In regards to Ethiopia establishing a capital city in OTL Khartoum, I doubt that would happen - it'd be more likely for the earlier establishment of a capital city where Gondar is currently as the Ethiopian economy is tied to trade routes around the region that are connected to the Red Sea.

 

[OurSacredWar]

To add to my bit about Ethiopian urbanization, you could potentially have Ethiopia began a gradual process of urbanization with Debre Berhan as her capital if Zara Yaqob's successors don't follow the practice of moving courts and permanently settle in Debre Berhan which kicks off urbanization. Another capital might be established at Gondar for the reasons mentioned above.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

The historical issue for Ethiopian urbanization is the whole Solomonic tradition of a "moving capital/court" that was done in order to avoid exhausting the resources of one region and making sure that your vassals don't end up rebelling against you by consistently ensuring your presence. Urbanization was occurring with the Zagwe Dynasty but that ended with the Solomonic Dynasty taking power under Yekunno Amlak/Tesfa Iyasus - if you want urbanization to continue, you'd need a stronger Zagwe Dynasty or just have a strong Solomonic Dynasty that fails to seize power and ends up entering into personal union with the Zagwe Dynasty which continues urbanization programs.

I don't think it's too plausible for Ethiopia to be expanding into South Sudan when she has the threats of Muslim powers to the north and east to be dealing with but I could be wrong. In regards to Ethiopia establishing a capital city in OTL Khartoum, I doubt that would happen - it'd be more likely for the earlier establishment of a capital city where Gondar is currently as the Ethiopian economy is tied to trade routes around the region that are connected to the Red Sea.

To add to my bit about Ethiopian urbanization, you could potentially have Ethiopia began a gradual process of urbanization with Debre Berhan as her capital if Zara Yaqob's successors don't follow the practice of moving courts and permanently settle in Debre Berhan which kicks off urbanization. Another capital might be established at Gondar for the reasons mentioned above.

I never meant to give the impression that Khartoum would be a capital. Just the northernmost city. But from the sounds of it, the issue was basically deciding to. So we need a dynasty willing/interested in urbanisation.

In that case a better PoD could be to consider changing behaviour in Aksum, have them either respond early, or invest in advance of 650 AD - establishing lands west of the Highlands could provide a more sustainable and less fragile agricultural base. It butterflies a lot of history, but even if it doesn't save Aksum, a local Ethiopian dynasty could emerge.